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Umut Cetin

Publications and source records attributed to Umut Cetin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Weak convergence rate for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process

We study the weak convergence rate of a drift-implicit discretisation scheme for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process in the regime where the process remains strictly positive. Specifically, we consider scheme~(4) of Alfonsi~\cite{A}, which arises naturally from applying a drift-implicit Euler step to the SDE satisfied by the square root of the CIR process and admits a unique positive closed-form solution at each time step. Using a PDE approach combined with a continuous-time SDE representation of the discretised process, we prove that the weak convergence rate is $\mathcal{O}(1/N)$ under the Feller condition $2\alpha\geq\theta^2$ and mild polynomial growth conditions on the payoff function. The proof requires only elementary techniques and, in particular, avoids the semi-exact simulation machinery used in earlier work. The methodology is expected to extend to a broader class of diffusion processes.

math.PR

Is Kyle's equilibrium model stable?

In the dynamic discrete-time trading setting of Kyle (1985), we prove that Kyle's equilibrium model is stable when there are one or two trading times. For three or more trading times, we prove that Kyle's equilibrium is not stable. These theoretical results are proven to hold irrespectively of all Kyle's input parameters.

q-fin.TR

Uniqueness in Cauchy problems for diffusive real-valued strict local martingales

For a real-valued one dimensional diffusive strict local martingale,, we provide a set of smooth functions in which the Cauchy problem has a unique classical solution under a local Hölder condition. Under the weaker Engelbert-Schmidt conditions, we provide a set in which the Cauchy problem has a unique weak solution. We exemplify our results using quadratic normal volatility models and the two dimensional Bessel process.

q-fin.MF

Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes default a surprise to the market. In contrast, we obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees a reduction of the manager's information set. The reduced information makes default a surprise to the market. We provide an explicit formula for the default intensity based on an Azema martingale, and we use excursion theory of Brownian motions to price risky debt.

math.PR