arXiv subjects

Víctor Elvira

Publications and source records attributed to Víctor Elvira.

54 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Rethinking the Effective Sample Size

The effective sample size (ESS) is widely used in sample-based simulation methods for assessing the quality of a Monte Carlo approximation of a given distribution and of related integrals. In this paper, we revisit the approximation of the ESS in the specific context of importance sampling (IS). The derivation of this approximation, that we will denote as $\widehat{\text{ESS}}$, is partially available in Kong (1992). This approximation has been widely used in the last 25 years due to its simplicity as a practical rule of thumb in a wide variety of importance sampling methods. However, we show that the multiple assumptions and approximations in the derivation of $\widehat{\text{ESS}}$, makes it difficult to be considered even as a reasonable approximation of the ESS. We extend the discussion of the $\widehat{\text{ESS}}$ in the multiple importance sampling (MIS) setting, we display numerical examples, and we discuss several avenues for developing alternative metrics. This paper does not cover the use of ESS for MCMC algorithms.

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arXiv2022

Multiple Importance Sampling ELBO and Deep Ensembles of Variational Approximations

In variational inference (VI), the marginal log-likelihood is estimated using the standard evidence lower bound (ELBO), or improved versions as the importance weighted ELBO (IWELBO). We propose the multiple importance sampling ELBO (MISELBO), a \textit{versatile} yet \textit{simple} framework. MISELBO is applicable in both amortized and classical VI, and it uses ensembles, e.g., deep ensembles, of independently inferred variational approximations. As far as we are aware, the concept of deep ensembles in amortized VI has not previously been established. We prove that MISELBO provides a tighter bound than the average of standard ELBOs, and demonstrate empirically that it gives tighter bounds than the average of IWELBOs. MISELBO is evaluated in density-estimation experiments that include MNIST and several real-data phylogenetic tree inference problems. First, on the MNIST dataset, MISELBO boosts the density-estimation performances of a state-of-the-art model, nouveau VAE. Second, in the phylogenetic tree inference setting, our framework enhances a state-of-the-art VI algorithm that uses normalizing flows. On top of the technical benefits of MISELBO, it allows to unveil connections between VI and recent advances in the importance sampling literature, paving the way for further methodological advances. We provide our code at \url{https://github.com/Lagergren-Lab/MISELBO}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Compressed Monte Carlo with application in particle filtering

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior distributions. For this purpose, Monte Carlo (MC) methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling algorithms, are often employed. In this work, we introduce the theory and practice of a Compressed MC (C-MC) scheme to compress the statistical information contained in a set of random samples. In its basic version, C-MC is strictly related to the stratification technique, a well-known method used for variance reduction purposes. Deterministic C-MC schemes are also presented, which provide very good performance. The compression problem is strictly related to the moment matching approach applied in different filtering techniques, usually called as Gaussian quadrature rules or sigma-point methods. C-MC can be employed in a distributed Bayesian inference framework when cheap and fast communications with a central processor are required. Furthermore, C-MC is useful within particle filtering and adaptive IS algorithms, as shown by three novel schemes introduced in this work. Six numerical results confirm the benefits of the introduced schemes, outperforming the corresponding benchmark methods. A related code is also provided.

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arXiv2021

Compressed particle methods for expensive models with application in Astronomy and Remote Sensing

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model selection or uncertainty quantification. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving (often costly) posterior distributions. Generally, this approximation is obtained by means of Monte Carlo (MC) methods. In order to reduce the computational cost of the corresponding technique, surrogate models (also called emulators) are often employed. Another alternative approach is the so-called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) scheme. ABC does not require the evaluation of the costly model but the ability to simulate artificial data according to that model. Moreover, in ABC, the choice of a suitable distance between real and artificial data is also required. In this work, we introduce a novel approach where the expensive model is evaluated only in some well-chosen samples. The selection of these nodes is based on the so-called compressed Monte Carlo (CMC) scheme. We provide theoretical results supporting the novel algorithms and give empirical evidence of the performance of the proposed method in several numerical experiments. Two of them are real-world applications in astronomy and satellite remote sensing.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2021

Optimized Auxiliary Particle Filters: adapting mixture proposals via convex optimization

Auxiliary particle filters (APFs) are a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models. In their original derivation, APFs operate in an extended state space using an auxiliary variable to improve inference. In this work, we propose optimized auxiliary particle filters, a framework where the traditional APF auxiliary variables are interpreted as weights in an importance sampling mixture proposal. Under this interpretation, we devise a mechanism for proposing the mixture weights that is inspired by recent advances in multiple and adaptive importance sampling. In particular, we propose to select the mixture weights by formulating a convex optimization problem, with the aim of approximating the filtering posterior at each timestep. Further, we propose a weighting scheme that generalizes previous results on the APF (Pitt et al. 2012), proving unbiasedness and consistency of our estimators. Our framework demonstrates significantly improved estimates on a range of metrics compared to state-of-the-art particle filters at similar computational complexity in challenging and widely used dynamical models.

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arXiv2021

On the performance of particle filters with adaptive number of particles

We investigate the performance of a class of particle filters (PFs) that can automatically tune their computational complexity by evaluating online certain predictive statistics which are invariant for a broad class of state-space models. To be specific, we propose a family of block-adaptive PFs based on the methodology of Elvira et al (2017). In this class of algorithms, the number of Monte Carlo samples (known as particles) is adjusted periodically, and we prove that the theoretical error bounds of the PF actually adapt to the updates in the number of particles. The evaluation of the predictive statistics that lies at the core of the methodology is done by generating fictitious observations, i.e., particles in the observation space. We study, both analytically and numerically, the impact of the number $K$ of these particles on the performance of the algorithm. In particular, we prove that if the predictive statistics with $K$ fictitious observations converged exactly, then the particle approximation of the filtering distribution would match the first $K$ elements in a series of moments of the true filter. This result can be understood as a converse to some convergence theorems for PFs. From this analysis, we deduce an alternative predictive statistic that can be computed (for some models) without sampling any fictitious observations at all. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study that illustrates the theoretical results and provides further insights into the complexity, performance and behavior of the new class of algorithms.

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arXiv2021

Importance Gaussian Quadrature

Importance sampling (IS) and numerical integration methods are usually employed for approximating moments of complicated target distributions. In its basic procedure, the IS methodology randomly draws samples from a proposal distribution and weights them accordingly, accounting for the mismatch between the target and proposal. In this work, we present a general framework of numerical integration techniques inspired by the IS methodology. The framework can also be seen as an incorporation of deterministic rules into IS methods, reducing the error of the estimators by several orders of magnitude in several problems of interest. The proposed approach extends the range of applicability of the Gaussian quadrature rules. For instance, the IS perspective allows us to use Gauss-Hermite rules in problems where the integrand is not involving a Gaussian distribution, and even more, when the integrand can only be evaluated up to a normalizing constant, as it is usually the case in Bayesian inference. The novel perspective makes use of recent advances on the multiple IS (MIS) and adaptive (AIS) literatures, and incorporates it to a wider numerical integration framework that combines several numerical integration rules that can be iteratively adapted. We analyze the convergence of the algorithms and provide some representative examples showing the superiority of the proposed approach in terms of performance.

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arXiv2020

GraphEM: EM algorithm for blind Kalman filtering under graphical sparsity constraints

Modeling and inference with multivariate sequences is central in a number of signal processing applications such as acoustics, social network analysis, biomedical, and finance, to name a few. The linear-Gaussian state-space model is a common way to describe a time series through the evolution of a hidden state, with the advantage of presenting a simple inference procedure due to the celebrated Kalman filter. A fundamental question when analyzing multivariate sequences is the search for relationships between their entries (or the modeled hidden states), especially when the inherent structure is a non-fully connected graph. In such context, graphical modeling combined with parsimony constraints allows to limit the proliferation of parameters and enables a compact data representation which is easier to interpret by the experts. In this work, we propose a novel expectation-minimization algorithm for estimating the linear matrix operator in the state equation of a linear-Gaussian state-space model. Lasso regularization is included in the M-step, that we solved using a proximal splitting Douglas-Rachford algorithm. Numerical experiments illustrate the benefits of the proposed model and inference technique, named GraphEM, over competitors relying on Granger causality.

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arXiv2019

Generalized Multiple Importance Sampling

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the performance depends on the mismatch between the targeted and the proposal distributions, several proposal densities are often employed for the generation of samples. Under this Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) scenario, many works have addressed the selection or adaptation of the proposal distributions, interpreting the sampling and the weighting steps in different ways. In this paper, we establish a general framework for sampling and weighing procedures when more than one proposal are available. The most relevant MIS schemes in the literature are encompassed within the new framework, and, moreover novel valid schemes appear naturally. All the MIS schemes are compared and ranked in terms of the variance of the associated estimators. Finally, we provide illustrative examples which reveal that, even with a good choice of the proposal densities, a careful interpretation of the sampling and weighting procedures can make a significant difference in the performance of the method.

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arXiv2019

A probabilistic incremental proximal gradient method

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a systematic approach to propagate the uncertainty of the solution estimate over iterations. The PIPG algorithm takes the form of Bayesian filtering updates for a state-space model constructed by using the cost function. Our framework makes it possible to utilize well-known exact or approximate Bayesian filters, such as Kalman or extended Kalman filters, to solve large-scale regularized optimization problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Generalizing the Balance Heuristic Estimator in Multiple Importance Sampling

In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable integrals. Then, we establish a generalized framework for the combination of samples simulated from multiple proposals. We show that the novel framework contains the balance heuristic as a particular case. In addition, we study the optimal choice of the free parameters in such a way the variance of the resulting estimator is minimized. A theoretical variance study shows the optimal solution is always better than the balance heuristic estimator (except in degenerate cases where both are the same). As a side result of this analysis, we also provide new upper bounds for the balance heuristic estimator. Finally, we show the gap in the variance of both estimators by means of five numerical examples.

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arXiv2019

Multiple Importance Sampling for Efficient Symbol Error Rate Estimation

Digital constellations formed by hexagonal or other non-square two-dimensional lattices are often used in advanced digital communication systems. The integrals required to evaluate the symbol error rate (SER) of these constellations in the presence of Gaussian noise are in general difficult to compute in closed-form, and therefore Monte Carlo simulation is typically used to estimate the SER. However, naive Monte Carlo simulation can be very inefficient and requires very long simulation runs, especially at high signal-to-noise ratios. In this letter, we adapt a recently proposed multiple importance sampling (MIS) technique, called ALOE (for `At Least One rare Event'), to this problem. Conditioned to a transmitted symbol, an error (or rare event) occurs when the observation falls in a union of half-spaces or, equivalently, outside a given polytope. The proposal distribution for ALOE samples the system conditionally on an error taking place, which makes it more efficient than other importance sampling techniques ALOE provides unbiased SER estimates with simulation times orders of magnitude shorter than conventional Monte Carlo.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2017

Adapting the Number of Particles in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods through an Online Scheme for Convergence Assessment

Particle filters are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions of hidden states in state-space models by means of sets of weighted particles. While the convergence of the filter is guaranteed when the number of particles tends to infinity, the quality of the approximation is usually unknown but strongly dependent on the number of particles. In this paper, we propose a novel method for assessing the convergence of particle filters online manner, as well as a simple scheme for the online adaptation of the number of particles based on the convergence assessment. The method is based on a sequential comparison between the actual observations and their predictive probability distributions approximated by the filter. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the proposed methodology and, as an example of its practical use, we present simulations of a simple algorithm for the dynamic and online adaption of the number of particles during the operation of a particle filter on a stochastic version of the Lorenz system.

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arXiv2016

Heretical Multiple Importance Sampling

Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently proposed, with the so-called deterministic mixture (DM) weights providing the best performance in terms of variance, at the expense of an increase in the computational cost. A recent work has shown that it is possible to achieve a trade-off between variance reduction and computational effort by performing an a priori random clustering of the proposals (partial DM algorithm). In this paper, we propose a novel "heretical" MIS framework, where the clustering is performed a posteriori with the goal of reducing the variance of the importance sampling weights. This approach yields biased estimators with a potentially large reduction in variance. Numerical examples show that heretical MIS estimators can outperform, in terms of mean squared error (MSE), both the standard and the partial MIS estimators, achieving a performance close to that of DM with less computational cost.

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arXiv2016

On the Relationship between Online Gaussian Process Regression and Kernel Least Mean Squares Algorithms

We study the relationship between online Gaussian process (GP) regression and kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithms. While the latter have no capacity of storing the entire posterior distribution during online learning, we discover that their operation corresponds to the assumption of a fixed posterior covariance that follows a simple parametric model. Interestingly, several well-known KLMS algorithms correspond to specific cases of this model. The probabilistic perspective allows us to understand how each of them handles uncertainty, which could explain some of their performance differences.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Improving Population Monte Carlo: Alternative Weighting and Resampling Schemes

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal distribution and assign them weights according to the importance sampling principle. Critical issues in applying PMC methods are the choice of the generating functions for the samples and the avoidance of the sample degeneracy. In this paper, we propose three new schemes that considerably improve the performance of the original PMC formulation by allowing for better exploration of the space of unknowns and by selecting more adequately the surviving samples. A theoretical analysis is performed, proving the superiority of the novel schemes in terms of variance of the associated estimators and preservation of the sample diversity. Furthermore, we show that they outperform other state of the art algorithms (both in terms of mean square error and robustness w.r.t. initialization) through extensive numerical simulations.

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arXiv2015

Efficient Multiple Importance Sampling Estimators

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) methods use a set of proposal distributions from which samples are drawn. Each sample is then assigned an importance weight that can be obtained according to different strategies. This work is motivated by the trade-off between variance reduction and computational complexity of the different approaches (classical vs. deterministic mixture) available for the weight calculation. A new method that achieves an efficient compromise between both factors is introduced in this paper. It is based on forming a partition of the set of proposal distributions and computing the weights accordingly. Computer simulations show the excellent performance of the associated \mbox{\emph{partial deterministic mixture} MIS estimator.

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arXiv2015

A Probabilistic Least-Mean-Squares Filter

We introduce a probabilistic approach to the LMS filter. By means of an efficient approximation, this approach provides an adaptable step-size LMS algorithm together with a measure of uncertainty about the estimation. In addition, the proposed approximation preserves the linear complexity of the standard LMS. Numerical results show the improved performance of the algorithm with respect to standard LMS and state-of-the-art algorithms with similar complexity. The goal of this work, therefore, is to open the door to bring some more Bayesian machine learning techniques to adaptive filtering.

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