arXiv subjects

V. A. Traag

Publications and source records attributed to V. A. Traag.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Science of science -- Citation models and research evaluation

Citations in science are being studied from several perspectives, among which approaches such as scientometrics and science of science. In this chapter I briefly review some of the literature on citations, citation distributions and models of citations. These citations feature prominently in another part of the literature which is dealing with research evaluation and the role of metrics and indicators in that process. Here I briefly review part of the discussion in research evaluation. This also touches on the subject of how citations relate to peer review. Finally, I conclude by trying to integrate the two literatures. The fundamental problem in research evaluation is that research quality is unobservable. This has consequences for conclusions that we can draw from quantitative studies of citations and citation models. The term ``indicators'' is a relevant concept in this context, which I try to clarify. Causality is important for properly understanding indicators, especially when indicators are used in practice: when we act on indicators, we enter causal territory. Even when an indicator might have been valid, through its very use, the consequences of its use may invalidate it. By combining citation models with proper causal reasoning and acknowledging the fundamental problem about unobservable research quality, we may hope to make progress.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2024

Causal foundations of bias, disparity and fairness

The study of biases, such as gender or racial biases, is an important topic in the social and behavioural sciences. However, the literature does not always clearly define the concept. Definitions of bias are often ambiguous or not provided at all. To study biases in a precise manner, it is important to have a well-defined concept of bias. We propose to define bias as a direct causal effect that is unjustified. We propose to define the closely related concept of disparity as a direct or indirect causal effect that includes a bias. Our proposed definitions can be used to study biases and disparities in a more rigorous and systematic way. We compare our definitions of bias and disparity with various criteria of fairness introduced in the artificial intelligence literature. In addition, we discuss how our definitions relate to discrimination. We illustrate our definitions of bias and disparity in two case studies, focusing on gender bias in science and racial bias in police shootings. Our proposed definitions aim to contribute to a better appreciation of the causal intricacies of studies of biases and disparities. We hope that this will also promote an improved understanding of the policy implications of such studies.

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arXiv2023

Metrics and peer review agreement at the institutional level

In the past decades, many countries have started to fund academic institutions based on the evaluation of their scientific performance. In this context, post-publication peer review is often used to assess scientific performance. Bibliometric indicators have been suggested as an alternative to peer review. A recurrent question in this context is whether peer review and metrics tend to yield similar outcomes. In this paper, we study the agreement between bibliometric indicators and peer review based on a sample of publications submitted for evaluation to the national Italian research assessment exercise (2011--2014). In particular, we study the agreement between bibliometric indicators and peer review at a higher aggregation level, namely the institutional level. Additionally, we also quantify the internal agreement of peer review at the institutional level. We base our analysis on a hierarchical Bayesian model using cross-validation. We find that the level of agreement is generally higher at the institutional level than at the publication level. Overall, the agreement between metrics and peer review is on par with the internal agreement among two reviewers for certain fields of science in this particular context. This suggests that for some fields, bibliometric indicators may possibly be considered as an alternative to peer review for the Italian national research assessment exercise. Although results do not necessarily generalise to other contexts, it does raise the question whether similar findings would obtain for other research assessment exercises, such as in the United Kingdom.

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arXiv2021

Inferring the causal effect of journals on citations

Articles in high-impact journals are, on average, more frequently cited. But are they cited more often because those articles are somehow more "citable"? Or are they cited more often simply because they are published in a high-impact journal? Although some evidence suggests the latter, the causal relationship is not clear. We here compare citations of preprints to citations of the published version to uncover the causal mechanism. We build on an earlier model of citation dynamics to infer the causal effect of journals on citations. We find that high-impact journals select articles that tend to attract more citations. At the same time, we find that high-impact journals augment the citation rate of published articles. Our results yield a deeper understanding of the role of journals in the research system. The use of journal metrics in research evaluation has been increasingly criticized in recent years and article-level citations are sometimes suggested as an alternative. Our results show that removing impact factors from evaluation does not negate the influence of journals. This insight has important implications for changing practices of research evaluation.

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arXiv2018

Partitioning signed networks

Signed networks appear naturally in contexts where conflict or animosity is apparent. In this book chapter we review some of the literature on signed networks, especially in the context of partitioning. Most of the work is founded in what is known as structural balance theory. We cover the basic mathematical principles of structural balance theory. The theory yields a natural formulation for partitioning. We briefly compare this to other partitioning approaches based on community detection. Finally, we analyse an international network of alliances and conflicts and discuss the implications of our findings for structural balance theory.

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arXiv2016

Structure of a media co-occurrence network

Social networks have been of much interest in recent years. We here focus on a network structure derived from co-occurrences of people in traditional newspaper media. We find three clear deviations from what can be expected in a random graph. First, the average degree in the empirical network is much lower than expected, and the average weight of a link much higher than expected. Secondly, high degree nodes attract disproportionately much weight. Thirdly, relatively much of the weight seems to concentrate between high degree nodes. We believe this can be explained by the fact that most people tend to co-occur repeatedly with the same people. We create a model that replicates these observations qualitatively based on two self-reinforcing processes: (1) more frequently occurring persons are more likely to occur again; and (2) if two people co-occur frequently, they are more likely to co-occur again. This suggest that the media tends to focus on people that are already in the news, and that they reinforce existing co-occurrences.

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arXiv2016

Complex Contagion of Campaign Donations

Money is central in US politics, and most campaign contributions stem from a tiny, wealthy elite. Like other political acts, campaign donations are known to be socially contagious. We study how campaign donations diffuse through a network of more than 50 000 elites and examine how connectivity among previous donors reinforces contagion. We find that the diffusion of donations is driven by independent reinforcement contagion: people are more likely to donate when exposed to donors from different social groups than when they are exposed to equally many donors from the same group. Counter-intuitively, being exposed to one side may increase donations to the other side. Although the effect is weak, simultaneous cross-cutting exposure makes donation somewhat less likely. Finally, the independence of donors in the beginning of a campaign predicts the amount of money that is raised throughout a campaign. We theorize that people infer population-wide estimates from their local observations, with elites assessing the viability of candidates, possibly opposing candidates in response to local support. Our findings suggest that theories of complex contagions need refinement and that political campaigns should target multiple communities.

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arXiv2015

Detecting communities using asymptotical Surprise

Nodes in real-world networks are repeatedly observed to form dense clusters, often referred to as communities. Methods to detect these groups of nodes usually maximize an objective function, which implicitly contains the definition of a community. We here analyze a recently proposed measure called surprise, which assesses the quality of the partition of a network into communities. In its current form, the formulation of surprise is rather difficult to analyze. We here therefore develop an accurate asymptotic approximation. This allows for the development of an efficient algorithm for optimizing surprise. Incidentally, this leads to a straightforward extension of surprise to weighted graphs. Additionally, the approximation makes it possible to analyze surprise more closely and compare it to other methods, especially modularity. We show that surprise is (nearly) unaffected by the well known resolution limit, a particular problem for modularity. However, surprise may tend to overestimate the number of communities, whereas they may be underestimated by modularity. In short, surprise works well in the limit of many small communities, whereas modularity works better in the limit of few large communities. In this sense, surprise is more discriminative than modularity, and may find communities where modularity fails to discern any structure.

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arXiv2015

Faster unfolding of communities: speeding up the Louvain algorithm

Many complex networks exhibit a modular structure of densely connected groups of nodes. Usually, such a modular structure is uncovered by the optimization of some quality function. Although flawed, modularity remains one of the most popular quality functions. The Louvain algorithm was originally developed for optimizing modularity, but has been applied to a variety of methods. As such, speeding up the Louvain algorithm, enables the analysis of larger graphs in a shorter time for various methods. We here suggest to consider moving nodes to a random neighbor community, instead of the best neighbor community. Although incredibly simple, it reduces the theoretical runtime complexity from $\mathcal{O}(m)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n \log \langle k \rangle)$ in networks with a clear community structure. In benchmark networks, it speeds up the algorithm roughly 2-3 times, while in some real networks it even reaches 10 times faster runtimes. This improvement is due to two factors: (1) a random neighbor is likely to be in a "good" community; and (2) random neighbors are likely to be hubs, helping the convergence. Finally, the performance gain only slightly diminishes the quality, especially for modularity, thus providing a good quality-performance ratio. However, these gains are less pronounced, or even disappear, for some other measures such as significance or surprise.

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arXiv2014

Dynamics of Media Attention

Studies of human attention dynamics analyses how attention is focused on specific topics, issues or people. In online social media, there are clear signs of exogenous shocks, bursty dynamics, and an exponential or powerlaw lifetime distribution. We here analyse the attention dynamics of traditional media, focussing on co-occurrence of people in newspaper articles. The results are quite different from online social networks and attention. Different regimes seem to be operating at two different time scales. At short time scales we see evidence of bursty dynamics and fast decaying edge lifetimes and attention. This behaviour disappears for longer time scales, and in that regime we find Poissonian dynamics and slower decaying lifetimes. We propose that a cascading Poisson process may take place, with issues arising at a constant rate over a long time scale, and faster dynamics at a shorter time scale.

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arXiv2013

Significant Scales in Community Structure

Many complex networks show signs of modular structure, uncovered by community detection. Although many methods succeed in revealing various partitions, it remains difficult to detect at what scale some partition is significant. This problem shows foremost in multi-resolution methods. We here introduce an efficient method for scanning for resolutions in one such method. Additionally, we introduce the notion of "significance" of a partition, based on subgraph probabilities. Significance is independent of the exact method used, so could also be applied in other methods, and can be interpreted as the gain in encoding a graph by making use of a partition. Using significance, we can determine "good" resolution parameters, which we demonstrate on benchmark networks. Moreover, optimizing significance itself also shows excellent performance. We demonstrate our method on voting data from the European Parliament. Our analysis suggests the European Parliament has become increasingly ideologically divided and that nationality plays no role.

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arXiv2013

Dynamical Models Explaining Social Balance and Evolution of Cooperation

Social networks with positive and negative links often split into two antagonistic factions. Examples of such a split abound: revolutionaries versus an old regime, Republicans versus Democrats, Axis versus Allies during the second world war, or the Western versus the Eastern bloc during the Cold War. Although this structure, known as social balance, is well understood, it is not clear how such factions emerge. An earlier model could explain the formation of such factions if reputations were assumed to be symmetric. We show this is not the case for non-symmetric reputations, and propose an alternative model which (almost) always leads to social balance, thereby explaining the tendency of social networks to split into two factions. In addition, the alternative model may lead to cooperation when faced with defectors, contrary to the earlier model. The difference between the two models may be understood in terms of the underlying gossiping mechanism: whereas the earlier model assumed that an individual adjusts his opinion about somebody by gossiping about that person with everybody in the network, we assume instead that the individual gossips with that person about everybody. It turns out that the alternative model is able to lead to cooperative behaviour, unlike the previous model.

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arXiv2012

Exploring the Mobility of Mobile Phone Users

Mobile phone datasets allow for the analysis of human behavior on an unprecedented scale. The social network, temporal dynamics and mobile behavior of mobile phone users have often been analyzed independently from each other using mobile phone datasets. In this article, we explore the connections between various features of human behavior extracted from a large mobile phone dataset. Our observations are based on the analysis of communication data of 100000 anonymized and randomly chosen individuals in a dataset of communications in Portugal. We show that clustering and principal component analysis allow for a significant dimension reduction with limited loss of information. The most important features are related to geographical location. In particular, we observe that most people spend most of their time at only a few locations. With the help of clustering methods, we then robustly identify home and office locations and compare the results with official census data. Finally, we analyze the geographic spread of users' frequent locations and show that commuting distances can be reasonably well explained by a gravity model.

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arXiv2011

Narrow scope for resolution-limit-free community detection

Detecting communities in large networks has drawn much attention over the years. While modularity remains one of the more popular methods of community detection, the so-called resolution limit remains a significant drawback. To overcome this issue, it was recently suggested that instead of comparing the network to a random null model, as is done in modularity, it should be compared to a constant factor. However, it is unclear what is meant exactly by "resolution-limit-free", that is, not suffering from the resolution limit. Furthermore, the question remains what other methods could be classified as resolution-limit-free. In this paper we suggest a rigorous definition and derive some basic properties of resolution-limit-free methods. More importantly, we are able to prove exactly which class of community detection methods are resolution-limit-free. Furthermore, we analyze which methods are not resolution-limit-free, suggesting there is only a limited scope for resolution-limit-free community detection methods. Finally, we provide such a natural formulation, and show it performs superbly.

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arXiv2009

Community detection in networks with positive and negative links

Detecting communities in complex networks accurately is a prime challenge, preceding further analyses of network characteristics and dynamics. Until now, community detection took into account only positively valued links, while many actual networks also feature negative links. We extend an existing Potts model to incorporate negative links as well, resulting in a method similar to the clustering of signed graphs, as dealt with in social balance theory, but more general. To illustrate our method, we applied it to a network of international alliances and disputes. Using data from 1993--2001, it turns out that the world can be divided into six power blocs similar to Huntington's civilizations, with some notable exceptions.

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