arXiv subjects

V. Alfradique

Publications and source records attributed to V. Alfradique.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improved constraint on the Hubble constant from dark sirens with LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA O4a

A new measurement of the Hubble constant $H_0$ is presented using the statistical dark siren method applied to a sample of seven well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) events from the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run and ten additional events from the first three runs. Galaxy catalogs from the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey (LS) are combined with a deep learning model to compute photometric redshift probability density functions. We extend our previous analysis by including the events GW230731_215307 and GW230927_153832, using sky maps from the fourth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-4), and introducing key methodological improvements: $r$-band luminosity weighting of host galaxies; an extended GW likelihood that incorporates information from the binary black hole component masses; and a consistent treatment of selection effects that accounts for the incompleteness of the magnitude-limited LS galaxy catalog. Using a total of 17 well-localized dark sirens (seven from the first part of the fourth observing run, O4a), we obtain $H_0 = 78.8^{+14.6}_{-12.2}$ km/s/Mpc without luminosity weighting and $H_0 = 78.2^{+12.0}_{-11.0}$ km/s/Mpc when applying $r$-band luminosity weighting. Finally, we combine the luminosity-weighted dark siren sample with the bright siren GW170817, including constraints on the jet viewing angle and corrections for the host galaxy peculiar velocity, to obtain a final constraint of $H_0 = 69.9^{+4.1}_{-4.0}$ km/s/Mpc, representing an improvement of approximately 11% in the uncertainty relative to the GW170817-only result.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Multi-wavelength analysis of the progenitor of GRB 230307A via Bayesian model comparison

GRB 230307A is one of the brightest long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) ever detected, yet its progenitor remains uncertain due to the variety of plausible astrophysical scenarios. In this work, we investigate four possible progenitors for GRB 230307A: a binary neutron star (BNS), a neutron star--white dwarf (NS--WD) system, a neutron star--black hole (NS--BH) merger, and a tidal disruption event (TDE) involving a white dwarf and a supermassive black hole. Additionally, we explore three distinct central engine models powering the kilonova associated with the BNS: radioactive decay of $r$-process nuclei in a two-component ejecta model, a magnetar-driven model including magnetic dipole spin-down, and a combined model of magnetar spin-down with ${}^{56}$Ni radioactive decay. We perform Bayesian multi-wavelength light-curve analyses using physically motivated models and priors, and evaluate model performance through Bayes factors and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) scores. Our results show a statistical preference for a BNS or NS--WD progenitor producing a kilonova powered by a magnetar and ${}^{56}$Ni decay, characterized by a ${}^{56}$Ni mass of $\sim4\times10^{-4}\,M_{\odot}$ and an ejecta mass of $0.06\,M_{\odot}$. Furthermore, under the assumption of a BNS origin within this model, we infer binary component masses of $m_{1} = 1.81^{+0.46}_{-0.61}\,M_{\odot}$ and $m_{2} = 1.61^{+0.65}_{-0.41}\,M_{\odot}$, with a dimensionless tidal deformability of $\tilde{\Lambda} = 471^{+318}_{-395}$. From the component mass posteriors, we infer that the observed offset can be explained by a natal kick as long as the systemic velocity is nearly aligned with the pre-kick orbital motion. In this case, the required kick velocity (co-moving frame) and binary separation range within $v'_{\mathrm{k}}\sim100$--$150~\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$, and $a_0\sim2$--$3~R_{\odot}$, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Systematic bias in dark siren statistical methods and its impact on Hubble constant measurement

The advent of multimessenger cosmology, marked by the detection of GW170817, demonstrated that standard sirens are a valuable cosmological probe. In the absence of an electromagnetic counterpart identification, gravitational waves carry valuable information through the dark siren approach, where the source redshift is estimated using galaxy catalogs of potential hosts within the localisation volume. However, the DS analysis can be affected by galaxy catalog incompleteness at the limits of gravitational-wave detectability, potentially introducing biases in the constraints on cosmological parameters. Focusing on GWs from binary black holes detected by the LVK collaboration, we explore the possible systematic biases in the measurement of the $H_0$. These biases may arise from (1) the incompleteness of catalogs due to the apparent magnitude thresholds of optical telescope sensitivity, and (2) the use of incorrect weighting schemes for each potential host. We found that an unbiased estimate of $H_0$ can be obtained when the corrected weighting scheme is applied to a complete or volume-limited catalog. We use a complete galaxy catalog covering 90% of the localisation probability for each GW detection, employing stellar mass as a tracer. Our results show that a sample of 100 binary black hole events with $A_{90\%}$<10 deg$^2$ and measured luminosity distances below 1600(2500) Mpc, detected by the LVK at O4(O5) sensitivity, can provide a percent-level measurement of $H_0$, with a precision of 3%(1%). This number of detections is expected to be accumulated after approximately 8 and 3 years of observations with the LVK at O4 and O5 sensitivity, respectively. The O5 run provides a reduction in the $H_0$ uncertainty by 1.34 km/s/Mpc compared to the O4-like configuration. The $H_0$ precision increases to approximately 6% when it is assumed that every galaxy has an equal probability of being the host.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

A dark standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant following LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA O4a and previous runs

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant ($H_0$) from the standard dark siren method using a sample of $5$ well-covered gravitational waves (GW) alerts reported during the first part of the fourth LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run and with $3$ updated standard dark sirens from third observation run in combination the previous constraints from the first three runs. Our methodology relies on the galaxy catalogue method alone. We use a Deep Learning method to derive the full probability density estimation of photometric redshifts using the Legacy Survey catalogues. We add the constraints from well localized Binary Black Hole mergers to the sample of standard dark sirens analysed in our previous work. We combine the $H_0$ posterior for $5$ new standard sirens with other $10$ previous events (using the most recent available data for the 5 novel events and updated 3 previous posteriors from O3), finding $H_0 = 70.4^{+13.6}_{-11.7}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ (68\% Confidence interval) with the catalogue method only. This result represents an improvement of $\sim 23\%$ comparing the new $15$ dark siren constrain with the previous $10$ dark siren constraint and a reduction in uncertainty of $\sim 40\%$ from the combination of $15$ dark and bright sirens compared with the GW170817 bright siren alone. The combination of dark and bright siren GW170817 with recent jet constraints yields $H_0$ of $68.0^{+4.4}_{-3.8}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, a $\sim 6\%$ precision from Standard Sirens, reducing the previous constraint uncertainty by $\sim 10\%$ .

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ via the distance-redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one of the possibilities is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic redshift to the source. Here we presented $H_{0}$ measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data, GW190924$\_$021846 and GW200202$\_$154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo in Chile. The combination of the $H_0$ posterior from GW190924$\_$021846 and GW200202$\_$154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to $H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm{km/s/Mpc}$. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68% confidence interval (CI) by 7% over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the inclusion of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision with which cosmological measurements can be made. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, we determine a measurement of $H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm{km /s/Mpc}$.

astro-ph.CO↗