arXiv subjects

V. Carruba

Publications and source records attributed to V. Carruba.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The dynamically hazardous asteroid 2025 TV$_{10}$. A new co-orbital asteroid of Venus

Twenty co-orbital asteroids of Venus are currently known, several of which may evolve into potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) over timescales of thousands of years. We report the identification and first dynamical characterization of 2025 TV$_{10}$, a newly discovered Venus co-orbital asteroid, and assess its potential collisional hazard to Earth. We performed numerical simulations of a large number of asteroid clones, and we studied their close encounters with Venus and Earth. The asteroid may leave its co-orbital orbit on timescales of 1200 yr. The orbit of 2025 TV$_{10}$ is one of the closest of the absolute minimum of the "minimum orbital intersection distance" (MOID) with Earth for the Venus co-orbital asteroids known to date. Owing to its orbital parameters, 2025 TV$_{10}$ represents one of the most dynamically hazardous members of the Venus co-orbital population identified to date. Its faint magnitude and restricted observability windows make future observations challenging but essential for constraining its orbit.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

The invisible threat: assessing the collisional hazard posed by the undiscovered Venus co-orbital asteroids

Currently, 20 co-orbital asteroids of Venus are known, with only one with an eccentricity below 0.38. This is most likely caused by observational biases since asteroids with larger eccentricities may approach the Earth and are easier to detect. We aim to assess the possible threat that the yet undetected population of Venus co-orbitals may pose to Earth, and investigate their detectability from Earth and space observatories. We used semi-analytical models of the 1:1 mean-motion resonance with Venus and numerical simulations to monitor close encounters with Earth on several co-orbital cycles. We analyzed observability windows and brightness variations for potential Venus co-orbitals as viewed from ground-based telescopes to assess their future detection feasibility with next-generation survey capabilities. There is a range of orbits with e < 0.38, larger at lower inclinations, for which Venus' co-orbitals can pose a collisional hazard to Earth. Current ground-based observations are constrained by periodic observing windows and solar elongation limitations, though the Rubin Observatory may detect some of these objects during favorable configurations. Space missions based on Venus' orbits may be instrumental in detecting Venus' co-orbitals at low eccentricities.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Machine learning to predict the solar flux and geomagnetic indices to model density and Drag in Satellites

In recent years (2000-2021), human-space activities have been increasing faster than ever. More than 36000 Earth' orbiting objects, all larger than 10 cm, in orbit around the Earth, are currently tracked by the European Space Agency (ESA). Around 70\% of all cataloged objects are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Aerodynamic drag provides one of the main sources of perturbations in this population, gradually decreasing the semi-major axis and period of the LEO satellites. Usually, an empirical atmosphere model as a function of solar radio flux and geomagnetic data is used to calculate the orbital decay and lifetimes of LEO satellites. In this respect, a good forecast for the space weather data could be a key tool to improve the model of drag. In this work, we propose using Time Series Forecasting Model to predict the future behavior of the solar flux and to calculate the atmospheric density, to improve the analytical models and reduce the drag uncertainty.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

Machine Learning applied to asteroid dynamics

Machine Learning (ML) is the branch of computer science that studies computer algorithms that can learn from data. It is mainly divided into supervised learning, where the computer is presented with examples of entries, and the goal is to learn a general rule that maps inputs to outputs, and unsupervised learning, where no label is provided to the learning algorithm, leaving it alone to find structures. Deep learning is a branch of machine learning based on numerous layers of artificial neural networks, which are computing systems inspired by the biological neural networks that constitute animal brains. In asteroid dynamics, machine learning methods have been recently used to identify members of asteroid families, and to identify resonant arguments images of asteroids in three-body resonances, among other applications. Here, we will conduct a review of available literature in the field, and classify it in terms of metrics recently used by other authors to assess the state of the art of applications of machine learning in other astronomical subfields. For comparison, applications of machine learning to Solar System bodies, a larger area that includes imaging and spectrophotometry of small bodies, have already reached a state classified as progressing. Research communities and methodologies are more established, and the use of ML led to the discovery of new celestial objects or features. ML applied to asteroid dynamics, however, is still in the emerging phase, with smaller groups, and fewer papers producing discoveries. Large observational surveys, like those conducted at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, will produce very substantial datasets of orbital and physical properties for asteroids. Applications of ML for clustering, image identification, and anomaly detection, among others, are currently being developed and are expected of being of great help.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Influence of Apophis' spin axis variations on a spacecraft during the 2029 close approach with Earth

Tumbling asteroids belong to a small group of objects, whose angular velocity vector is unaligned with any of its principal axes of inertia. This leads to challenging efforts to model the trajectory of any spacecraft designed to orbit these bodies. In this work, we deepen a previous study on this topic, concerning the asteroid (99942) Apophis during its close encounter with the Earth in 2029. We analyze the orbital behaviour of a spacecraft orbiting the asteroid during this event, by including the effects of the changes of orientation of the spin axis of the asteroid, depending on two sets of initial conditions. The global dynamics of the spacecraft around the target are analyzed using three approaches, MEGNO, PMap, and Time-Series prediction. We confirm that no spacecraft with natural orbits could survive the high perturbations caused by the close encounter with our planet.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Artificial Neural Network classification of asteroids in the M1:2 mean-motion resonance with Mars

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been successfully used in the last years to identify patterns in astronomical images. The use of ANN in the field of asteroid dynamics has been, however, so far somewhat limited. In this work we used for the first time ANN for the purpose of automatically identifying the behaviour of asteroid orbits affected by the M1:2 mean-motion resonance with Mars. Our model was able to perform well above 85% levels for identifying images of asteroid resonant arguments in term of standard metrics like accuracy, precision and recall, allowing to identify the orbital type of all numbered asteroids in the region. Using supervised machine learning methods, optimized through the use of genetic algorithms, we also predicted the orbital status of all multi-opposition asteroids in the area. We confirm that the M1:2 resonance mainly affects the orbits of the Massalia, Nysa, and Vesta asteroid families.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Asteroid families interacting with secular resonances

Asteroid families are formed as the result of collisions. Large fragments are ejected with speeds of the order of the escape velocity from the parent body. After the family formation, the fragments' orbits evolve in the space of proper elements because of gravitational and non-gravitational perturbations, such as the Yarkovsky effect. Disentangling the contribution to the current orbital position of family members caused by the initial ejection velocity field and the subsequent orbital evolution is usually a difficult task. Among the more than 100 asteroid families currently known, some interact with secular resonances. Linear secular resonances occur when there is a commensurability between the precession frequency of the longitude of the pericenter (g) or of the longitude of node (s) of an asteroid and a planet, or a massive asteroid. The linear secular resonance most effective in increasing an asteroid eccentricity is the $ν_6$, that corresponds to a commensurability between the precession frequency g of an asteroid and Saturn's $g_6$. Non-linear secular resonances involve commensurabilities of higher order, and can often be expressed as combinations of linear secular resonances. This is the case, for instance, of the $z_k=k(g-g_6)+(s-s_6)$ resonances. Asteroid families that are crossed by secular resonances are of particular interest in dynamical astronomy. First, they often provide a clear evidence of asteroid orbit evolution due to the Yarkovsky effect. Second, conserved quantities of secular dynamics can be used to set valuable constraints on the magnitude of the original ejection velocity field. Finally, by changing the value of inclination of family members nodal secular resonances with massive asteroids or dwarf planets can cause the i distribution to become more and more leptokurtic (i.e., more peaked and with larger tails than that of a Gaussian distribution).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

On the age of the Nele asteroid family

The Nele group, formerly known as the Iannini family, is one of the youngest asteroid families in the main belt. Previously, it has been noted that the pericenter longitudes $\varpi$ and nodal longitudes $Ω$ of its largest member asteroids are clustered at the present time, therefore suggesting that the collisional breakup of parent body must have happened recently. Here we verify this conclusion by detailed orbit-propagation of a synthetic Nele family and show that the current level of clustering of secular angles of the largest Nele family members requires an approximate age limit of $4.5$ Myr. Additionally, we make use of an updated and largely extended Nele membership to obtain, for the first time, an age estimate of this family using the Backward Integration Method (BIM). Convergence of the secular angles in a purely gravitational model and in a model including the non-gravitational forces caused by the Yarkovsky effect are both compatible with an age younger than $7$ Myr. More accurate determination of the Nele family age would require additional data about the spin state of its members.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

An automatic approach to exclude interlopers from asteroid families

Asteroid families are valuable source of information to many asteroid-related re- searches, assuming a reliable list of their members could be obtained. However, as the number of known asteroids increases fast it becomes more and more difficult to obtain robust list of members of an asteroid family. Here we are proposing a new approach to deal with the problem, based on the well known Hierarchical Clustering Method (HCM). An additional step in the whole procedure is introduced in order to reduce a so-called chaining effect. The main idea is to prevent chaining through an al- ready identified interloper. We show that in this way a number of potential interlopers among family members is significantly reduced. Moreover, we developed an automatic on-line based portal to apply this procedure, i.e to generate a list of family members as well as a list of potential interlopers. The Asteroid Families Portal (AFP) is freely available to all interested researchers.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Dynamics in the vicinity of (101955) Bennu: Solar radiation pressure effects in equatorial orbits

Here we study the dynamical effects of the solar radiation pressure (SRP) on a spacecraft that will survey the near-Earth rotating asteroid (101955) Bennu when the projected shadow is accounted for. The spacecraft's motion near (101955) Bennu is modelled in the rotating frame fixed at the centre of the asteroid, neglecting the sun gravity effects. We calculate the solar radiation pressure at the perihelion, semi-major axis and aphelion distances of the asteroid from the Sun. The goals of this work are to analyse the stability for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous mass distribution and study the effects of the solar radiation pressure in equatorial orbits close to the asteroid (101955) Bennu. As results, we find that the mascon model divided into ten equal layers seems to be the most suitable for this problem. We can highlight that the centre point $E$8, which was linearly stable in the case of the homogeneous mass distribution, becomes unstable in this new model changing its topological structure. For a Sun initial longitude $ψ_0 = -180^o$, starting with the spacecraft longitude $λ= 0$, the orbits suffer fewer impacts and some (between 0.4 and 0.5 km), remaining unwavering even if the maximum solar radiation is considered. When we change the initial longitude of the Sun to $ψ_0 = -135^o$, the orbits with initial longitude $λ= 90^0 $ appear to be more stable. Finally, when the passage of the spacecraft in the shadow is accounted for, the effects of solar radiation pressure are softened, and we find more stable orbits.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

The Rafita asteroid family

The Rafita asteroid family is an S-type group located in the middle main belt, on the right side of the 3J:-1A mean-motion resonance. The proximity of this resonance to the family left side in semi-major axis caused many former family members to be lost. As a consequence, the family shape in the $(a,1/D)$ domain is quite asymmetrical, with a preponderance of objects on the right side of the distribution. The Rafita family is also characterized by a leptokurtic distribution in inclination, which allows the use of methods of family age estimation recently introduced for other leptokurtic families such as Astrid, Hansa, Gallia, and Barcelona. In this work we propose a new method based on the behavior of an asymmetry coefficient function of the distribution in the $(a,1/D)$ plane to date incomplete asteroid families such as Rafita. By monitoring the time behavior of this coefficient for asteroids simulating the initial conditions at the time of the family formation, we were able to estimate that the Rafita family should have an age of $490\pm200$ Myr, in good agreement with results from independent methods such as Monte Carlo simulations of Yarkovsky and Yorp dynamical induced evolution and the time behaviour of the kurtosis of the $\sin{(i)}$ distribution. Asteroids from the Rafita family can reach orbits similar to 8\% of the currently known near Earth objects. $\simeq$1\% of the simulated objects are present in NEO-space during the final 10 Myr of the simulation, and thus would be comparable to objects in the present-day NEO population.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

The Hoffmeister asteroid family

The Hoffmeister family is a C-type group located in the central main belt. Dynamically, it is important because of its interaction with the $ν_{1C}$ nodal secular resonance with Ceres, that significantly increases the dispersion in inclination of family members at lower semi-major axis. As an effect, the distribution of inclination values of the Hoffmeister family at semi-major axis lower than its center is significantly leptokurtic, and this can be used to set constraints on the terminal ejection velocity field of the family at the time it was produced. By performing an analysis of the time behaviour of the kurtosis of the $v_W$ component of the ejection velocity field ($γ_2(v_W)$), as obtained from Gauss' equations, for different fictitious Hoffmeister families with different values of the ejection velocity field, we were able to exclude that the Hoffmeister family should be older than 335 Myr. Constraints from the currently observed inclination distribution of the Hoffmeister family suggest that its terminal ejection velocity parameter $V_{EJ}$ should be lower than 25~m/s. Results of a Yarko-YORP Monte Carlo method to family dating, combined with other constraints from inclinations and $γ_2(v_W)$, indicate that the Hoffmeister family should be $220^{+60}_{-40}$~Myr old, with an ejection parameter $V_{EJ}= 20\pm5$~m/s.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

On the highly inclined $v_W$ leptokurtic asteroid families

$v_W$ leptokurtic asteroid families are families for which the distribution of the normal component of the terminal ejection velocity field $v_W$ is characterized by a positive value of the $γ_2$ Pearson kurtosis, i.e., they have a distribution with a more concentrated peak and larger tails than the Gaussian one. Currently, eight families are known to have $γ_2(v_W) > 0.25$. Among these, three are highly inclined asteroid families, the Hansa, Barcelona, and Gallia families. As observed for the case of the Astrid family, the leptokurtic inclination distribution seems to be caused by the interaction of these families with node secular resonances. In particular, the Hansa and Gallia family are crossed by the $s-s_V$ resonance with Vesta, that significantly alters the inclination of some of their members. In this work we use the time evolution of $γ_2(v_W)$ for simulated families under the gravitational influence of all planets and the three most massive bodies in the main belt to assess the dynamical importance (or lack of) node secular resonances with Ceres, Vesta, and Pallas for the considered families, and to obtain independent constraints on the family ages. While secular resonances with massive bodies in the main belt do not significantly affect the dynamical evolution of the Barcelona family, they significantly increase the $γ_2(v_W)$ values of the simulated Hansa and Gallia families. Current values of the $γ_2(v_W)$ for the Gallia family are reached over the estimated family age only if secular resonances with Vesta are accounted for.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

On the Astrid asteroid family

Among asteroid families, the Astrid family is peculiar because of its unusual inclination distribution. Objects at $a\simeq$~2.764 au are quite dispersed in this orbital element, giving the family a "crab-like" appearance. Recent works showed that this feature is caused by the interaction of the family with the $s-s_C$ nodal secular resonance with Ceres, that spreads the inclination of asteroids near its separatrix. As a consequence, the currently observed distribution of the $v_W$ component of terminal ejection velocities obtained from inverting Gauss equation is quite leptokurtic, since this parameter mostly depends on the asteroids inclination. The peculiar orbital configuration of the Astrid family can be used to set constraints on key parameters describing the strength of the Yarkovsky force, such as the bulk and surface density and the thermal conductivity of surface material. By simulating various fictitious families with different values of these parameters, and by demanding that the current value of the kurtosis of the distribution in $v_W$ be reached over the estimated lifetime of the family, we obtained that the thermal conductivity of Astrid family members should be $\simeq$ 0.001 W/m/K, and that the surface and bulk density should be higher than 1000 kg/m$^{3}$. Monte Carlo methods simulating Yarkovsky and stochastic YORP evolution of the Astrid family show its age to be $T$ = 140$\pm$30 Myr old, in good agreement with estimates from other groups. Its terminal ejection velocity parameter is in the range $V_{EJ}= 5^{+17}_{-5}$~m/s.] Values of $V_{EJ}$ larger than 25 m/s are excluded from constraints from the current inclination distribution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

On the oldest asteroid families in the main belt

Asteroid families are groups of minor bodies produced by high-velocity collisions. After the initial dispersions of the parent bodies fragments, their orbits evolve because of several gravitational and non-gravitational effects,such as diffusion in mean-motion resonances, Yarkovsky and YORP effects, close encounters of collisions, etc. The subsequent dynamical evolution of asteroid family members may cause some of the original fragments to travel beyond the conventional limits of the asteroid family. Eventually, the whole family will dynamically disperse and no longer be recognizable. A natural question that may arise concerns the timescales for dispersion of large families. In particular, what is the oldest still recognizable family in the main belt? Are there any families that may date from the late stages of the Late Heavy Bombardment and that could provide clues on our understanding of the primitive Solar System? In this work, we investigate the dynamical stability of seven of the allegedly oldest families in the asteroid main belt. Our results show that none of the seven studied families has a nominally mean estimated age older than 2.7 Gyr, assuming standard values for the parameters describing the strength of the Yarkovsky force. Most "paleo-families" that formed between 2.7 and 3.8 Gyr would be characterized by a very shallow size-frequency distribution, and could be recognizable only if located in a dynamically less active region (such as that of the Koronis family). V-type asteroids in the central main belt could be compatible with a formation from a paleo-Eunomia family.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Footprints of a possible Ceres asteroid paleo-family

Ceres is the largest and most massive body in the asteroid main belt. Observational data from the Dawn spacecraft reveal the presence of at least two impact craters about 280~km in diameter on the Ceres surface, that could have expelled a significant number of fragments. Yet, standard techniques for identifying dynamical asteroid families have not detected any Ceres family. In this work, we argue that linear secular resonances with Ceres deplete the population of objects near Ceres. Also, because of the high escape velocity from Ceres, family members are expected to be very dispersed, with a considerable fraction of km-sized fragments that should be able to reach the pristine region of the main belt, the area between the 5J:-2A and 7J:-3A mean-motion resonances, where the observed number of asteroids is low. Rather than looking for possible Ceres family members near Ceres, here we propose to search in the pristine region. We identified 156 asteroids whose taxonomy, colors, albedo could be compatible with being fragments from Ceres. Remarkably, most of these objects have inclinations near that of Ceres itself.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

The Euphrosyne family's contribution to the low albedo near-Earth asteroids

The Euphrosyne asteroid family is uniquely situated at high inclination in the outer Main Belt, bisected by the nu_6 secular resonance. This large, low albedo family may thus be an important contributor to specific subpopulations of the near-Earth objects. We present simulations of the orbital evolution of Euphrosyne family members from the time of breakup to the present day, focusing on those members that move into near-Earth orbits. We find that family members typically evolve into a specific region of orbital element-space, with semimajor axes near ~3 AU, high inclinations, very large eccentricities, and Tisserand parameters similar to Jupiter family comets. Filtering all known NEOs with our derived orbital element limits, we find that the population of candidate objects is significantly lower in albedo than the overall NEO population, although many of our candidates are also darker than the Euphrosyne family, and may have properties more similar to comet nuclei. Followup characterization of these candidates will enable us to compare them to known family properties, and confirm which ones originated with the breakup of (31) Euphrosyne.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Identification and Dynamical Properties of Asteroid Families

Asteroids formed in a dynamically quiescent disk but their orbits became gravitationally stirred enough by Jupiter to lead to high-speed collisions. As a result, many dozen large asteroids have been disrupted by impacts over the age of the Solar System, producing groups of fragments known as asteroid families. Here we explain how the asteroid families are identified, review their current inventory, and discuss how they can be used to get insights into long-term dynamics of main belt asteroids. Electronic tables of the membership for 122 notable families are reported on the Planetary Data System node.

astro-ph.EP↗