arXiv subjects

V. Klentos

Publications and source records attributed to V. Klentos.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2012

Does Global seismic energy release increase? An analysis based on the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM). The case of mega - earthquakes (M > 9)

In this work the data of the earthquake catalog of the NOAA, National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) are processed in terms of global seismic energy release. The determined Global Cumulative Seismic Energy Release (GCSER) graph as a function of time, is analyzed in the magnitude domain (discrete energy windows). Characteristic components of the analyzed graph are: its accelerated deformation character observed for energy windows lower than the background seismicity (M = 7.0 - 7.5), its lock state that started on 1923 and long seismic quiescence periods that preceded recent mega - earthquakes. The background GCSER value oscillates during the last century with a period of 60 years and with increasing amplitude. The recent (1952 - 2012) 5 mega - earthquakes are closely related to the amplitude increase of the GCSER oscillation. Hence, it is suggested that more mega - earthquakes are probable due to occur in the future. A global mechanism is postulated for the generation of the mega - earthquakes based on the principles of the non-linearity of the earth, the Markovitz wobble and the expanding earth. The determination of the magnitude of the 5 recent mega - earthquakes by the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM) method indicates that the latter is globally applicable. Key words: Global seismicity, expanding earth, mega - earthquakes, Markowitz wobble, background seismicity, magnitude determination

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2012

Preseismic electric signals generated by critical stress loading of the lithosphere. A review of the type of signals obtained from a long lasted (1999 to 2012) experiment conducted in Greece

In this work a review is made of the various preseismic electric signals that have been observed before large EQs in Greece during the period of 1999 to 2012. The observed preseismic electric signals comply quite well with the theoretical ones that are expected to be generated by a large scale piezoelectric mechanism been activatsd at the focal area due to its excess stress-load. Preseismic electric signals of the total piezoelectric field, its first time derivative, its oscillation due to M1 and K1 tidal components have been observed by single monitoring sites during the actual 1999 to 2012 experiment in Greece. Moreover, the "strange attractor like" electric preseismic signal was detected by the simultaneously use of two distant monitoring sites. It is demonstrated that the preseismic electric signals can not only determine quite accurately a very short time window for the EQ occurrence and its epicentral location but the latter can be achieved without any prior knowledge of the geological, tectonic setting or past seismic history of the seismogenic area. The predicted pending EQ is treated as a single isolated destructive nature event which sends clear warning signals well before its occurrence. Real examples are presented from the Greek territory. Key words: piezoelectricity, electric preseismic signals, strange attractor like, earthquake prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2012

Was the magnitude (M = 9.0R) of the mega-earthquake of Japan (11th of March, 2011) predictable? An analysis based on the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM)

The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other probabilistic methods while a larger magnitude (M > 9.0) had been proposed for all subduction zones. The observed discrepancy between the proposed EQ magnitude range and the actual one of the Tohoku EQ is studied in this work in terms of the cumulative seismic energy release of the study area and by the use of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM). The results indicate that the Tohoku mega-earthquake magnitude could be predicted quite accurately provided that a long past seismic history had been available for use by the LSEFM procedure. Moreover, the presence, of the missing historic 1855 EQ (7.0 < M < 8.0) from seismic catalogs, was predicted backwards by the LSEFM method and its existence was verified by the Ishibashi (2004) work on Japanese historic seismicity. The recurrence time of the Tohoku EQ is estimated as being at least as 100 years. It is proposed frequent monitoring of the Japanese area seismic potential by compiling regularly in time the corresponding seismic potential maps. Key words: Tohoku earthquake, earthquake magnitude, lithosphere, cumulative seismic energy, mega-earthquakes, seismic potential maps.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

The precursory electric signals, observed before the Izmit Turkey EQ (Mw = 7.6, August 17th, 1999), analyzed in terms of a hypothetically pre-activated, in the focal area, large scale piezoelectric mechanism

The generated, prior to the Izmit Turkey large EQ, preseismic electric signals were recorded in Greece by the VOL Earth's electric field monitoring site. In order to explain their peculiar character and their generating mechanism, a large scale piezoelectric mechanism was assumed that was initiated in the Izmit seismogenic region long before the EQ occurrence time. The theoretical analysis of the adopted physical model justifies the generation of a number of specific electric signals that can be emitted from the focal area before the rock formation failure. The processing of the registered by the VOL monitoring site raw data revealed the presence of similar signals as the expected theoretical ones. Therefore, it is concluded that long before the Izmit EQ occurrence a large scale piezoelectric mechanism was initiated that was modulated too by the tidally triggered lithospheric oscillation and therefore generated the observed preseismic electric signals. The adopted piezoelectric model provides critical information about the time of occurrence of the seismogenic area rock formation failure and therefore the possibility for a real short-term time prediction of a large EQ. The other two predictive EQ parameters, location and magnitude, are discussed in the frame of electric field triangulation and the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM).

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

The Earth's oscillating electric field (T = 1 day) in relation to the occurrence time of large EQs (Ms>5.0R). A postulated theoretical physical working model and its statistical validation

The mechanically oscillating, due to tidal forces, lithosperic plate activates, because of its high content in quartzite, the generation of a piezoelectric field. Due to the same mechanical oscillation the lithosphere is generally at a state of an oscillating stress load. Therefore, large EQs which occur at the peaks of the stress load must coincide with the peaks of the generated piezoelectric potential. In this work a physical mechanism is postulated that accounts for the latter hypothesis. The postulated model is statistically tested by comparing the time of occurrence of 280 large EQs (Ms>5.0R) which occurred during the period from 2003 to 2011, to the same period of time Earth's electric field registered at ATH (Athens) and PYR (Pyrgos) monitoring sites located in Greece. The comparison has been made for the oscillating component of T = 1 day and for both the E - W and N - S directions. The statistical results indicate that the postulated model does not behave randomly. Instead, it represents a smooth normal distribution which peaks on the zero deviation in time between the time of occurrence of the large EQs and the amplitude peaks of the Earth's oscillating electric field. Therefore, the proposed physical model is an acceptable one and can be used for the finer refinement of the prediction of the occurrence time of a large EQ within a day's time period.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

Can large (M >= 8) EQs be triggered by tidal (M1) waves? An analysis of the global seismicity that occurred during 1901 - 2011

The analysis of two global data sets of large earthquakes (2010 - 2011, 30 samples of M \geq 7R and 1901-2011, 178 samples of M \geq 8R) reveals that there exists a cause and effect relation between the vertical tidal M1 component amplitude peak and the time of occurrence of the latter EQs. A physical model mechanism is postulated that justifies the obtained results. It is shown that the tidal waves can trigger a large EQ, despite their small amplitude, provided that the seismogenic area is under critical stress load conditions. Actually, it is shown that a large EQ can be triggered by the cooperative action of all vertical tidal components but mainly by the M1 and K1 ones. Examples are presented from the most recent global large EQs (Summatra, Mw = 9.1, 2004 and Japan, Mw = 9.0, 2011) and from Greece (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 2006 and Skyros, Greece, Ms = 6.1R, 2001). The postulated physical model provides the means for the implementation of the first step towards a really short-term earthquake prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

On the recent large EQ of Karpathos, Greece (April 1st, 2011, Ms = 6.7R) and its similarities to the large EQ of the January 1st, 2006 (Ms = 6.9R) at East of Kythira, Greece

The recent large EQ that occurred in Greece (April 1st, 2011, Ms = 6.7R) is investigated as far as it concerns regional geophysical features of the Greek territory. In particular, the EQ location is compared to the deep lithospheric fracture zones and faults, derived from the analysis of the corresponding earth's gravity field; to the current seismic potential map determined from the study of the past seismicity, while its time of occurrence is compared to the peaks of the M1 and diurnal tidal waves. The detailed investigation of the earth's electric field that was recorded by the ATH monitoring site, located in Athens, revealed the presence of short train like pulses type electric seismic precursory signals which were generated short (1 - 2 days) before the EQ occurrence time. Moreover, the analysis (for T = 1 day) of the earth's oscillating electric field, that was simultaneously recorded at PYR and ATH monitoring sites, revealed that the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor preceded for 1 - 2 days the EQ occurrence time. A similar behavior was observed from the large EQ of the East Kythira (Ms = 6.9R, January, 8th, 2006). It is concluded that the same regional tectonic mechanism controlled and generated both the analyzed EQs while the adopted geophysical earth models have been validated.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

The Japan earthquake of March 11th, 2011 (Mw = 8.9R) as viewed in terms of local lithospheric oscillation due to M1 and K1 tidal components. A brief presentation

The time of occurrence of the large EQ that occurred recently in Japan (March 11th, 2011, Mw = 8.9) is compared to the time of peak amplitude occurrence of the M1 and K1 tidal components. It is shown that the specific EQ occurred on the peak of the M1 tidal component, and deviates for only 45 minutes from the corresponding K1 tidal peak. Therefore, the specific seismic event complies quite well with the earlier proposed physical mechanism (lithospheric oscillation) that causes triggering of large EQs.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

A short note on the two most recent large EQs of New Zealand (Mw=7.0 on September 3rd, 2010 and Mw=6.1 on February 21st, 2011). A typical example of tidally triggered large EQs by the M1 tidal component

The time of occurrence of the two most resent large EQs of New Zealand (Mw = 7.0 on September 3rd, 2010 and Mw = 6.1 on February 21st, 2011) is compared to the time when the lithospheric oscillation at the focal area reaches its peak amplitude in terms of the M1 (Moon declination) tidal component. The observed very good coincidence of the EQs occurrence time with the lithospheric oscillation peak amplitude time for the M1 tidal component clearly suggests that both these EQs were triggered by the M1 component of the lithospheric tidal oscillation. It is speculated that large preseismic electric signals should be observed before the EQs occurrence if the appropriate hardware were installed.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event?

The analysis of the earthquakes catalog of Greece for the period 1964 to 2010 indicates a continuously increasing no. of seismic events. A detailed determination of the cumulative seismic energy release, for specific earthquake magnitudes, revealed that for magnitudes up to Ms = 5.0R the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, is at a state of accelerating deformation for almost the last 10 years. The background seismicity rate, considering constant cumulative seismic energy release for the entire study period, corresponds to a magnitude of Ms = 5.5R, while for earthquakes of larger magnitudes the Greek seismogenic area behaves irregularly. The results are compared to the different phases (Mjachkin et al, 1975) a seismogenic area undergoes before a large seismic event. From this comparison it is concluded that the Greek territory is probably in the course for a large seismic event in the years to come.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

The Andravida, Greece EQ (8/06/2008, Ms=7.0R). An "a posteriori" analysis for the determination of its location, occurrence time and magnitude parameters in terms of short-term predictability

The Andravida EQ, Greece (8/6/2008, Ms=7.0R) seismic parameters: location, time of occurrence and magnitude were determined "a posteriori" in an attempt to verify the predictability of the large EQs. The Earth's electric field, after its processing by de-noising techniques, was used, in conjunction with appropriate physical models, for the determination of the epicenter by triangulation. The time of occurrence was determined in very short-term mode by the use of the tidal waves (M1, K1) and the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor, while its magnitude was calculated by the application of the "lithospheric seismic energy flow model" applied on the past seismicity of the Andravida EQ regional seismogenic area. The quite accurate obtained results corroborate the validity of the methodology and suggest its use as a valuable tool for predicting large earthquakes. Key words: earthquake prediction, epicenter area, time of occurrence, earthquake magnitude, seismic potential, tidal waves.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

Amplitude modulated, by M1, Earth's oscillating (T = 1 day) electric field triggered by K1 tidal waves. Its relation to the occurrence time of large EQs

Starting from the observation that quite often the Earth's oscillating electric field varies in amplitude, a mechanism is postulated that accounts for these observations. That mechanism is the piezoelectric one driven by the M1 and K1 tidal components. It is demonstrated how the system: piezoelectricity triggered in the lithosphere - M1 and K1 tidal components is activated and produces the amplitude modulated Earth's oscillating electric field. This procedure is linked to the strain load conditions met in the seismogenic area before the occurrence of a large EQ. Peaks of the oscillating Earth's electric field are tightly connected to the M1 peak tidal component and to the timing of the occurrence of large EQs. Typical examples from real recordings of the Earth's oscillating electric field, recorded by the ATH (Greece) monitoring site, are given in order to verify the postulated detailed piezoelectric mechanism.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

"Strange attractor like" electric seismic precursor observed prior to the Nafpactos, Greece, EQs of 18th / 22nd January, 2010 (Ms = 5.7R / 5.6R)

Phase maps, of the earth's electric field monitored at PYR and ATH monitoring sites in Greece, were compiled for two distinct oscillating earth's electric field components long before, during and after the Nafpactos EQs in Greece (January 18th and 22nd of 2010, Ms = 5.7 / 5.6R). The selected periods of the earth's oscillating electric field were the T = 1 day and T = 14 days. The specific components were selected due to the fact that they are highly depended from the corresponding same period tidal waves (M1, K1, P1). It was found that the "strange attractor like" electric seismic precursor preceded the main seismic event for four days for the case of T = 1 day, while a much longer period of time (11 days) was observed for the case of T = 14 days. It seems that the shorter the used wavelength is the shorter is the predictive time window regarding the pending seismic event. The present work replicated earlier similar results obtained by the same methodology for past large seismic events in Greece and have already been presented in the same database. The present methodology seems to be a promising tool in short-term (in time) earthquake prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

How "Short" a "Short-term earthquake prediction" can be? A review of the case of Skyros Island,Greece, EQ (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R)

The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the methodologies which were used for the analysis of the available data in order to utilize the specific prognosis. Of particular interest is the fact that the determined time of occurrence deviated for less than an hour (actually it was 41 minutes) from the actual occurrence time of the specific EQ. A similar example of another large EQ (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 8th January, 2006) by using the very same methodology deviated for 43 minutes only. The rest of the prognostic parameters: the epicenter location and the magnitude of the Skyros EQ were utilized by manipulating the past seismic energy release history of the regional seismogenic area and the observed earth's electric field which was recorded during the last 25 days, before the occurrence of the large seismic event, by VOL earth's electric field monitoring site. It is concluded that a short-term earthquake prediction can be utilized as a really "short" one, once the available precursory data are processed with the appropriate methodologies.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2010

Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period

The seismic potential maps for Greece, particularly for the years 2005 and 2010 (end of 2009), have been calculated following the methodology of the "lithospheric seismic energy flow model". The compiled, for the year 2005, map is compared to the observed large seismicity of 2005 - 2010 period. Furthermore, a comparison is made of the seismic charge status regarding the year 2005 to the one of 2000. It is revealed that there exists an increase of the seismic potential which results into triggering, in the next five years period (2005 - 2010), almost double the number of large EQs, compared to the ones observed during 2000 - 2005 period of time. Finally, estimation is made about the seismic accelerating deformation status of the entire Greek territory. It is shown that, since 2004, accelerated deformation monotonically increases and it is speculated that some large seismic events is possible to occur within the next 1 - 3 years. The average "virtual" magnitude of these seismic events, considering the entire Greek territory as a single unit seismogenic area, has been calculated as Ms = 8.18R. In practice, these events will be decomposed into a number of smaller in magnitude, but still large too, seismic events located at normally different seismogenic areas.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2009

Medium - long term earthquake prediction by the use of the oscillating electric field (T = 365 days) generated due to Earth's orbit around the Sun and due to its consequent oscillating lithospheric deformation

We study the Earth's electric field monitored at PYR (Greece) monitoring site, for a period of more than six years (May 23rd, 2003 to September 7th, 2009). It is compared, in particular its oscillating component of T = 365 days, with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the same component of the Earth's magnetic field, with the corresponding same period tidal oscillation and with the occurred large EQs of the same period of time. The obtained results suggest that the oscillating electric field component is generated by large scale piezoelectricity triggered by the Earth's shape - lithospheric oscillating deformation. The driving mechanism (yearly tidal variation) precedes the Aphelion - Perihelion dates for a month complying with the corresponding tidal friction behavior of the Earth's shape deformation. The Earth's oscillating electric field peaks coincide with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates while the triggered large EQs are clustered very close to the Perihelion - Aphelion dates. Moreover it is shown that the observed Earth's oscillating electric field is not related to or induced by the corresponding Earth's magnetic field. In conclusion, the Earth's oscillating electric field character could be used as medium to long term electric seismic precursor of large EQs. Keywords: tidal waves, Earth deformation, preseismic electric signals, magnetic field, Perihelion, Aphelion, earthquake prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2009

Seismic electric precursors observed prior to the 6.3R EQ of July 1st 2009, Greece and their use in short-term earthquake prediction

The normalized raw data of the Earth's electric field, monitored at PYR, ATH, HIO monitoring sites in Greece, are studied as far as it concerns the presence of electric seismic precursors. Electric preseismic pulses, plateau-like anomalous electric field and Very Long Period (VLP) anomalies were detected prior to the occurrence of the July 1st, 2009 large (Ms = 6.3R) EQ in Greece. Further processing of the same data revealed the true form of the generated preseimic potential thus providing an indirect estimation of the time window of the occurrence of the large EQ. Finally, by correlating, at pairs, the anomalous electric field from all monitoring sites it is possible to calculate the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor that provides a time window for the occurrence of the large EQ and utilizes the determination not only of the regional seismogenic area that has been activated but also a more precise epicenter too.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2009

Decomposing the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor into simpler components

An attempt is made in this work to decompose the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor into more simple and elementary components. The basic data files of the orthogonal (NS, EW) components of the Earth's electric field used for the compilation of the corresponding phase maps are decomposed by a joint non-linear inversion scheme into two basic oscillating electric fields. The first one, called "signal", is attributed to a single current source while the second, called "noise", is attributed to the mix-up of some regional and randomly located current sources. The comparison of the phase maps compiled from the raw data files to the ones compiled by the "signal" and "noise" data shows that the newly compiled "strange attractor like" phase maps preserve their predictive property while their appearance resembles simpler geometrical shapes (pure hyperbolas and ellipses). Moreover, it is postulated that its generating mechanism is the stress waves applied in the regional area by the combined interaction of the Sun, Moon and Earth (tidal waves). The latter mechanism, when the seismogenic area is under critical stress-charge conditions, triggers new current sources at places where the stress has reached locally critical stress levels and hence the "strange attractor like" seismic precursor is generated.

physics.geo-ph↗