arXiv subjects

V. S. Subrahmanian

Publications and source records attributed to V. S. Subrahmanian.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Human, AI, and Hybrid Ensembles for Detection of Adaptive, RL-based Social Bots

The use of reinforcement learning to dynamically adapt and evade detection is now well-documented in several cybersecurity settings including Covert Social Influence Operations (CSIOs), in which bots try to spread disinformation. While AI bot detectors have improved greatly, they are largely limited to detecting static bots that do not adapt dynamically. We present the first systematic study comparing the ability of humans, AI models, and hybrid Human-AI ensembles in detecting adaptive bots powered by reinforcement learning. Using data from a controlled, IRB-approved, five-day experiment with participants interacting on a social media platform infiltrated by RL-trained bots spreading disinformation to influence participants on 4 topics, we examine factors potentially shaping human detection capabilities: demographic characteristics, temporal learning effects, social network position, engagement patterns, and collective intelligence mechanisms. We first test 13 hypotheses comparing human bot detection performance against state-of-the-art AI approaches utilizing both traditional machine learning and large language models. We further investigate several aggregation strategies that combine human reports of bots with AI predictions, as well as retraining protocols that leverage human supervision. Our findings challenge intuitive assumptions about bot detection, reveal unexpected patterns in how humans identify bots, and show that combining human bot reports with AI predictions outperforms humans alone and AI alone. We conclude with a discussion of the practical implications of these results for industry.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Human-AI Ensembles Improve Deepfake Detection in Low-to-Medium Quality Videos

Deepfake detection is widely framed as a machine learning problem, yet how humans and AI detectors compare under realistic conditions remains poorly understood. We evaluate 200 human participants and 95 state-of-the-art AI detectors across two datasets: DF40, a standard benchmark, and CharadesDF, a novel dataset of videos of everyday activities. CharadesDF was recorded using mobile phones leading to low/moderate quality videos compared to the more professionally captured DF40. Humans outperform AI detectors on both datasets, with the gap widening in the case of CharadesDF where AI accuracy collapses to near chance (0.537) while humans maintain robust performance (0.784). Human and AI errors are complementary: humans miss high-quality deepfakes while AI detectors flag authentic videos as fake, and hybrid human-AI ensembles reduce high-confidence errors. These findings suggest that effective real-world deepfake detection, especially in non-professionally produced videos, requires human-AI collaboration rather than AI algorithms alone.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

SMART: A Social Movement Analysis & Reasoning Tool with Case Studies on #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter

Social movements supporting the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) play a vital role in improving human lives. If journalists were aware of the relationship between social movements and external events, they could provide more precise, time-sensitive reporting about movement issues and SDGs. Our SMART system achieves this goal by collecting data from multiple sources, extracting emotions on various themes, and then using a transformer-based forecasting engine (DEEP) to predict quantity and intensity of emotions in future posts. This paper demonstrates SMART's Retrospective capabilities required by journalists via case studies analyzing social media discussions of the #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter before and after the 2024 U.S. election. We create a novel 1-year dataset which we will release upon publication. It contains over 2.7M Reddit posts and over 1M news articles. We show that SMART enables early detection of discourse shifts around key political events, providing journalists with actionable insights to inform editorial planning. SMART was developed through multiple interactions with a panel of over 20 journalists from a variety of news organizations over a 2-year period, including an author of this paper.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Context and Transcripts Improve Detection of Deepfake Audios of Public Figures

Humans use context to assess the veracity of information. However, current audio deepfake detectors only analyze the audio file without considering either context or transcripts. We create and analyze a Journalist-provided Deepfake Dataset (JDD) of 255 public deepfakes which were primarily contributed by over 70 journalists since early 2024. We also generate a synthetic audio dataset (SYN) of dead public figures and propose a novel Context-based Audio Deepfake Detector (CADD) architecture. In addition, we evaluate performance on two large-scale datasets: ITW and P$^2$V. We show that sufficient context and/or the transcript can significantly improve the efficacy of audio deepfake detectors. Performance (measured via F1 score, AUC, and EER) of multiple baseline audio deepfake detectors and traditional classifiers can be improved by 5%-37.58% in F1-score, 3.77%-42.79% in AUC, and 6.17%-47.83% in EER. We additionally show that CADD, via its use of context and/or transcripts, is more robust to 5 adversarial evasion strategies, limiting performance degradation to an average of just -0.71% across all experiments. Code, models, and datasets are available at our project page: https://sites.northwestern.edu/nsail/cadd-context-based-audio-deepfake-detection (access restricted during review).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

DEEP: A Discourse Evolution Engine for Predictions about Social Movements

Numerous social movements (SMs) around the world help support the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Understanding how key events shape SMs is key to the achievement of the SDGs. We have developed SMART (Social Media Analysis & Reasoning Tool) to track social movements related to the SDGs. SMART was designed by a multidisciplinary team of AI researchers, journalists, communications scholars and legal experts. This paper describes SMART's transformer-based multivariate time series Discourse Evolution Engine for Predictions about Social Movements (DEEP) to predict the volume of future articles/posts and the emotions expressed. DEEP outputs probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty estimates, providing critical support for editorial planning and strategic decision-making. We evaluate DEEP with a case study of the #MeToo movement by creating a novel longitudinal dataset (433K Reddit posts and 121K news articles) from September 2024 to June 2025 that will be publicly released for research purposes upon publication of this paper.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Defending a City from Multi-Drone Attacks: A Sequential Stackelberg Security Games Approach

To counter an imminent multi-drone attack on a city, defenders have deployed drones across the city. These drones must intercept/eliminate the threat, thus reducing potential damage from the attack. We model this as a Sequential Stackelberg Security Game, where the defender first commits to a mixed sequential defense strategy, and the attacker then best responds. We develop an efficient algorithm called S2D2, which outputs a defense strategy. We demonstrate the efficacy of S2D2 in extensive experiments on data from 80 real cities, improving the performance of the defender in comparison to greedy heuristics based on prior works. We prove that under some reasonable assumptions about the city structure, S2D2 outputs an approximate Strong Stackelberg Equilibrium (SSE) with a convenient structure.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Perturbed Public Voices (P$^{2}$V): A Dataset for Robust Audio Deepfake Detection

Current audio deepfake detectors cannot be trusted. While they excel on controlled benchmarks, they fail when tested in the real world. We introduce Perturbed Public Voices (P$^{2}$V), an IRB-approved dataset capturing three critical aspects of malicious deepfakes: (1) identity-consistent transcripts via LLMs, (2) environmental and adversarial noise, and (3) state-of-the-art voice cloning (2020-2025). Experiments reveal alarming vulnerabilities of 22 recent audio deepfake detectors: models trained on current datasets lose 43% performance when tested on P$^{2}$V, with performance measured as the mean of F1 score on deepfake audio, AUC, and 1-EER. Simple adversarial perturbations induce up to 16% performance degradation, while advanced cloning techniques reduce detectability by 20-30%. In contrast, P$^{2}$V-trained models maintain robustness against these attacks while generalizing to existing datasets, establishing a new benchmark for robust audio deepfake detection. P$^{2}$V will be publicly released upon acceptance by a conference/journal.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2024

Quantifying the Risk of Pastoral Conflict in 4 Central African Countries

Climate change is becoming a widely recognized risk factor of farmer-herder conflict in Africa. Using an 8 year dataset (Jan 2015 to Sep 2022) of detailed weather and terrain data across four African nations, we apply statistical and machine learning methods to analyze pastoral conflict. We test hypotheses linking these variables with pastoral conflict within each country using geospatial and statistical analysis. Complementing this analysis are risk maps automatically updated for decision-makers. Our models estimate which cells have a high likelihood of experiencing pastoral conflict with high predictive accuracy and study the variation of this accuracy with the granularity of the cells.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Mitigating Adversarial Gray-Box Attacks Against Phishing Detectors

Although machine learning based algorithms have been extensively used for detecting phishing websites, there has been relatively little work on how adversaries may attack such "phishing detectors" (PDs for short). In this paper, we propose a set of Gray-Box attacks on PDs that an adversary may use which vary depending on the knowledge that he has about the PD. We show that these attacks severely degrade the effectiveness of several existing PDs. We then propose the concept of operation chains that iteratively map an original set of features to a new set of features and develop the "Protective Operation Chain" (POC for short) algorithm. POC leverages the combination of random feature selection and feature mappings in order to increase the attacker's uncertainty about the target PD. Using 3 existing publicly available datasets plus a fourth that we have created and will release upon the publication of this paper, we show that POC is more robust to these attacks than past competing work, while preserving predictive performance when no adversarial attacks are present. Moreover, POC is robust to attacks on 13 different classifiers, not just one. These results are shown to be statistically significant at the p < 0.001 level.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2021

M2P2: Multimodal Persuasion Prediction using Adaptive Fusion

Identifying persuasive speakers in an adversarial environment is a critical task. In a national election, politicians would like to have persuasive speakers campaign on their behalf. When a company faces adverse publicity, they would like to engage persuasive advocates for their position in the presence of adversaries who are critical of them. Debates represent a common platform for these forms of adversarial persuasion. This paper solves two problems: the Debate Outcome Prediction (DOP) problem predicts who wins a debate while the Intensity of Persuasion Prediction (IPP) problem predicts the change in the number of votes before and after a speaker speaks. Though DOP has been previously studied, we are the first to study IPP. Past studies on DOP fail to leverage two important aspects of multimodal data: 1) multiple modalities are often semantically aligned, and 2) different modalities may provide diverse information for prediction. Our M2P2 (Multimodal Persuasion Prediction) framework is the first to use multimodal (acoustic, visual, language) data to solve the IPP problem. To leverage the alignment of different modalities while maintaining the diversity of the cues they provide, M2P2 devises a novel adaptive fusion learning framework which fuses embeddings obtained from two modules -- an alignment module that extracts shared information between modalities and a heterogeneity module that learns the weights of different modalities with guidance from three separately trained unimodal reference models. We test M2P2 on the popular IQ2US dataset designed for DOP. We also introduce a new dataset called QPS (from Qipashuo, a popular Chinese debate TV show ) for IPP. M2P2 significantly outperforms 4 recent baselines on both datasets.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Deception Detection in Group Video Conversations using Dynamic Interaction Networks

Detecting groups of people who are jointly deceptive in video conversations is crucial in settings such as meetings, sales pitches, and negotiations. Past work on deception in videos focuses on detecting a single deceiver and uses facial or visual features only. In this paper, we propose the concept of Face-to-Face Dynamic Interaction Networks (FFDINs) to model the interpersonal interactions within a group of people. The use of FFDINs enables us to leverage network relations in detecting group deception in video conversations for the first time. We use a dataset of 185 videos from a deception-based game called Resistance. We first characterize the behavior of individual, pairs, and groups of deceptive participants and compare them to non-deceptive participants. Our analysis reveals that pairs of deceivers tend to avoid mutual interaction and focus their attention on non-deceivers. In contrast, non-deceivers interact with everyone equally. We propose Negative Dynamic Interaction Networks to capture the notion of missing interactions. We create the DeceptionRank algorithm to detect deceivers from NDINs extracted from videos that are just one minute long. We show that our method outperforms recent state-of-the-art computer vision, graph embedding, and ensemble methods by at least 20.9% AUROC in identifying deception from videos.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

BB_Evac: Fast Location-Sensitive Behavior-Based Building Evacuation

Past work on evacuation planning assumes that evacuees will follow instructions -- however, there is ample evidence that this is not the case. While some people will follow instructions, others will follow their own desires. In this paper, we present a formal definition of a behavior-based evacuation problem (BBEP) in which a human behavior model is taken into account when planning an evacuation. We show that a specific form of constraints can be used to express such behaviors. We show that BBEPs can be solved exactly via an integer program called BB_IP, and inexactly by a much faster algorithm that we call BB_Evac. We conducted a detailed experimental evaluation of both algorithms applied to buildings (though in principle the algorithms can be applied to any graphs) and show that the latter is an order of magnitude faster than BB_IP while producing results that are almost as good on one real-world building graph and as well as on several synthetically generated graphs.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2019

Automatic Long-Term Deception Detection in Group Interaction Videos

Most work on automated deception detection (ADD) in video has two restrictions: (i) it focuses on a video of one person, and (ii) it focuses on a single act of deception in a one or two minute video. In this paper, we propose a new ADD framework which captures long term deception in a group setting. We study deception in the well-known Resistance game (like Mafia and Werewolf) which consists of 5-8 players of whom 2-3 are spies. Spies are deceptive throughout the game (typically 30-65 minutes) to keep their identity hidden. We develop an ensemble predictive model to identify spies in Resistance videos. We show that features from low-level and high-level video analysis are insufficient, but when combined with a new class of features that we call LiarRank, produce the best results. We achieve AUCs of over 0.70 in a fully automated setting. Our demo can be found at http://home.cs.dartmouth.edu/~mbolonkin/scan/demo/

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

C2P2: A Collective Cryptocurrency Up/Down Price Prediction Engine

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the fact that the price of a cryptocurrency c might depend not only on historical prices, sentiments, global stock indices, but also on the prices and predicted prices of other cryptocurrencies. C2P2 therefore does not predict cryptocurrency prices one coin at a time --- rather it uses similarity metrics in conjunction with collective classification to compare multiple cryptocurrency features to jointly predict the cryptocurrency prices for all 21 coins considered. We show that our C2P2 algorithm beats out a recent competing 2017 paper by margins varying from 5.1-83% and another Bitcoin-specific prediction paper from 2018 by 16%. In both cases, C2P2 is the winner on all cryptocurrencies considered. Moreover, we experimentally show that the use of similarity metrics within our C2P2 algorithm leads to a direct improvement for 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies ranging from 0.4% to 17.8%. Without the similarity component, C2P2 still beats competitors on 20 out of 21 cryptocurrencies considered. We show that all these results are statistically significant via a Student's t-test with p<1e-5. Check our demo at https://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/dsail/demos/c2p2

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Deception Detection in Videos

We present a system for covert automated deception detection in real-life courtroom trial videos. We study the importance of different modalities like vision, audio and text for this task. On the vision side, our system uses classifiers trained on low level video features which predict human micro-expressions. We show that predictions of high-level micro-expressions can be used as features for deception prediction. Surprisingly, IDT (Improved Dense Trajectory) features which have been widely used for action recognition, are also very good at predicting deception in videos. We fuse the score of classifiers trained on IDT features and high-level micro-expressions to improve performance. MFCC (Mel-frequency Cepstral Coefficients) features from the audio domain also provide a significant boost in performance, while information from transcripts is not very beneficial for our system. Using various classifiers, our automated system obtains an AUC of 0.877 (10-fold cross-validation) when evaluated on subjects which were not part of the training set. Even though state-of-the-art methods use human annotations of micro-expressions for deception detection, our fully automated approach outperforms them by 5%. When combined with human annotations of micro-expressions, our AUC improves to 0.922. We also present results of a user-study to analyze how well do average humans perform on this task, what modalities they use for deception detection and how they perform if only one modality is accessible. Our project page can be found at \url{https://doubaibai.github.io/DARE/}.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

An Army of Me: Sockpuppets in Online Discussion Communities

In online discussion communities, users can interact and share information and opinions on a wide variety of topics. However, some users may create multiple identities, or sockpuppets, and engage in undesired behavior by deceiving others or manipulating discussions. In this work, we study sockpuppetry across nine discussion communities, and show that sockpuppets differ from ordinary users in terms of their posting behavior, linguistic traits, as well as social network structure. Sockpuppets tend to start fewer discussions, write shorter posts, use more personal pronouns such as "I", and have more clustered ego-networks. Further, pairs of sockpuppets controlled by the same individual are more likely to interact on the same discussion at the same time than pairs of ordinary users. Our analysis suggests a taxonomy of deceptive behavior in discussion communities. Pairs of sockpuppets can vary in their deceptiveness, i.e., whether they pretend to be different users, or their supportiveness, i.e., if they support arguments of other sockpuppets controlled by the same user. We apply these findings to a series of prediction tasks, notably, to identify whether a pair of accounts belongs to the same underlying user or not. Altogether, this work presents a data-driven view of deception in online discussion communities and paves the way towards the automatic detection of sockpuppets.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Ensemble-Based Algorithms to Detect Disjoint and Overlapping Communities in Networks

Given a set ${\cal AL}$ of community detection algorithms and a graph $G$ as inputs, we propose two ensemble methods $\mathtt{EnDisCO}$ and $\mathtt{MeDOC}$ that (respectively) identify disjoint and overlapping communities in $G$. $\mathtt{EnDisCO}$ transforms a graph into a latent feature space by leveraging multiple base solutions and discovers disjoint community structure. $\mathtt{MeDOC}$ groups similar base communities into a meta-community and detects both disjoint and overlapping community structures. Experiments are conducted at different scales on both synthetically generated networks as well as on several real-world networks for which the underlying ground-truth community structure is available. Our extensive experiments show that both algorithms outperform state-of-the-art non-ensemble algorithms by a significant margin. Moreover, we compare $\mathtt{EnDisCO}$ and $\mathtt{MeDOC}$ with a recent ensemble method for disjoint community detection and show that our approaches achieve superior performance. To the best of our knowledge, $\mathtt{MeDOC}$ is the first ensemble approach for overlapping community detection.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

ChoiceGAPs: Competitive Diffusion as a Massive Multi-Player Game in Social Networks

We consider the problem of modeling competitive diffusion in real world social networks via the notion of ChoiceGAPs which combine choice logic programs due to Sacca` and Zaniolo and Generalized Annotated Programs due to Kifer and Subrahmanian. We assume that each vertex in a social network is a player in a multi-player game (with a huge number of players) - the choice part of the ChoiceGAPs describe utilities of players for acting in various ways based on utilities of their neighbors in those and other situations. We define multi-player Nash equilibrium for such programs - but because they require some conditions that are hard to satisfy in the real world, we introduce a new model-theoretic concept of strong equilibrium. We show that stable equilibria can capture all Nash equilibria. We prove a host of complexity (intractability) results for checking existence of strong equilibria (as well as related counting complexity results), together with algorithms to find them. We then identify a class of ChoiceGAPs for which stable equilibria can be polynomially computed. We develop algorithms for computing these equilibria under various restrictions. We come up with the important concept of an estimation query which can compute quantities w.r.t. a given strong equilibrium, and approximate ranges of values (answers) across the space of strong equilibria. Even though we show that computing range answers to estimation queries exactly is intractable, we are able to identify classes of estimation queries that can be answered in polynomial time. We report on experiments we conducted with a real-world FaceBook data set surrounding the 2013 Italian election showing that our algorithms have good predictive accuracy with an Area Under a ROC Curve that, on average, is over 0.76.

cs.LO↗