The impact of electron precipitation on Earth's thermospheric NO production and the drag of LEO satellites
We investigate the response of space weather events on Earth's upper atmosphere over the polar regions by studying their effect on the drag of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. Increasing solar activity that results in heating and the expansion of the upper atmosphere threatens low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Auroral events are closely related to the stellar energy deposition of solar EUV radiation and precipitating energetic electrons, which influence photochemical processes such as the production of nitric oxide (NO) in the upper atmosphere. To study the production of NO molecules and their influence on the thermospheric structure and satellite drag, we first model Earth's background thermosphere with the 1D upper atmosphere model Kompot by considering the incident X-ray, EUV, and IR radiation during selected space weather events. To investigate the effect of electron precipitation in the production of NO molecules in the polar thermosphere, we apply a Monte Carlo model accounting for the stochastic nature of collisional scattering of auroral electrons in collisions with the surrounding N$_2$-O$_2$ atmosphere, including the production of suprathermal N atoms. The observed effect of the atmospheric drag on CHAMP and GRACE during the two studied events indicates that a sporadic enhancement of NO molecule production in the polar thermosphere and its IR-cooling capability, which counteracts thermospheric expansion and can lead to an ``overcooling'' with decreased density after the space weather event, can have a protective effect on LEO satellites. Their production efficiency, however, is highly dependent on the energy flux of the precipitating electrons. Our results have direct implications for empirical satellite orbit prediction models, as our simulations highlight the need to consider precipitation-induced NO production to improve the predictive power of these models.