arXiv subjects

Vahid Eghbal Akhlaghi

Publications and source records attributed to Vahid Eghbal Akhlaghi.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Delivery Delay Duration Prediction via Multi-Task Deep Learning

Accurate delivery delay prediction is critical for maintaining operational efficiency and customer satisfaction across modern supply chains. Yet the increasing complexity of logistics networks, spanning multimodal transportation, cross-country routing, and pronounced regional variability, makes this prediction task inherently challenging. This paper introduces a multi-task deep learning model for delivery delay duration prediction in the presence of significant imbalanced data, where delayed shipments are rare but operationally consequential. The model embeds high-dimensional shipment features with dedicated embedding layers for tabular data, and then uses a classification-then-regression strategy to predict the delivery delay duration for on-time and delayed shipments. Unlike sequential pipelines, this approach enables end-to-end training, improves the detection of delayed cases, and supports probabilistic forecasting for uncertainty-aware decision making. The proposed approach is evaluated on a large-scale real-world dataset from an industrial partner, comprising more than 10 million historical shipment records across four major source locations with distinct regional characteristics. The proposed model is compared with traditional machine learning methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a mean absolute error of 0.67-0.91 days for delayed-shipment predictions, outperforming single-step tree-based regression baselines by 41-64% and two-step classify-then-regress tree-based models by 15-35%. These gains demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in operational delivery delay forecasting under highly imbalanced and heterogeneous conditions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PROPEL: Supervised and Reinforcement Learning for Large-Scale Supply Chain Planning

This paper considers how to fuse Machine Learning (ML) and optimization to solve large-scale Supply Chain Planning (SCP) optimization problems. These problems can be formulated as MIP models which feature both integer (non-binary) and continuous variables, as well as flow balance and capacity constraints. This raises fundamental challenges for existing integrations of ML and optimization that have focused on binary MIPs and graph problems. To address these, the paper proposes PROPEL, a new framework that combines optimization with both supervised and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to reduce the size of search space significantly. PROPEL uses supervised learning, not to predict the values of all integer variables, but to identify the variables that are fixed to zero in the optimal solution, leveraging the structure of SCP applications. PROPEL includes a DRL component that selects which fixed-at-zero variables must be relaxed to improve solution quality when the supervised learning step does not produce a solution with the desired optimality tolerance. PROPEL has been applied to industrial supply chain planning optimizations with millions of variables. The computational results show dramatic improvements in solution times and quality, including a 60% reduction in primal integral and an 88% primal gap reduction, and improvement factors of up to 13.57 and 15.92, respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Constraint Programming to Improve Hub Utilization in Autonomous Transfer Hub Networks

The Autonomous Transfer Hub Network (ATHN) is one of the most promising ways to adapt self-driving trucks for the freight industry. These networks use autonomous trucks for the middle mile, while human drivers perform the first and last miles. This paper extends previous work on optimizing ATHN operations by including transfer hub capacities, which are crucial for labor planning and policy design. It presents a Constraint Programming (CP) model that shifts an initial schedule produced by a Mixed Integer Program to minimize the hub capacities. The scalability of the CP model is demonstrated on a case study at the scale of the United States, based on data provided by Ryder System, Inc. The CP model efficiently finds optimal solutions and lowers the necessary total hub capacity by 42%, saving $15.2M in annual labor costs. The results also show that the reduced capacity is close to a theoretical (optimistic) lower bound.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

The Flood Mitigation Problem in a Road Network

Natural disasters are highly complex and unpredictable. However, long-term planning and preparedness activities can help to mitigate the consequences and reduce the damage. For example, in cities with a high risk of flooding, appropriate roadway mitigation can help reduce the impact of floods or high waters on transportation systems. Such communities could benefit from a comprehensive assessment of mitigation on road networks and identification of the best subset of roads to mitigate. In this study, we address a pre-disaster planning problem that seeks to strengthen a road network against flooding. We develop a network design problem that maximizes the improvement in accessibility and travel times between population centers and healthcare facilities subject to a given budget. We provide techniques for reducing the problem size to help make the problem tractable. We use cities in the state of Iowa in our computational experiments.

math.OC↗