arXiv subjects

Valentin Kilian

Publications and source records attributed to Valentin Kilian.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Prediction-Powered Active Testing

Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled. However, existing estimators fail to exploit the informative predictions of powerful black--box models, even though such predictions are increasingly available in settings where labels remain expensive. To address this, we propose \textbf{Prediction--Powered Active Testing (PPAT)}, a novel label--efficient risk estimation framework that combines the unbiased LURE estimator \citep{farquhar2021statistical} with a prediction--powered control variate. Rather than using proxy predictions as biased pseudo--labels, PPAT uses them to residualise the loss, preserving unbiasedness while reducing variance. Beyond the estimator itself, PPAT also changes which points should be acquired: we derive oracle and practical surrogate--based acquisition rules tailored to reducing the variance of our estimator. Moreover, we establish asymptotic normality for PPAT, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals and thus a principled estimate of the uncertainty around our estimates. Across tabular regression and image--classification tasks, PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation, while its confidence intervals attain the target coverage with substantially fewer labels and smaller widths.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Generative Model for Extremely Sparse Edge-Exchangeable Networks

We propose a graph generative model for sequences of extremely sparse, edge-exchangeable networks. Models for sparse graphs often face a trade-off between desirable properties like exchangeability and the ability to capture the sparsity observed in real-world networks. While models based on vertex or edge exchangeability have successfully generated sparse graphs, achieving the "extremely sparse" regime, where the number of edges scales near-linearly with the number of nodes, has remained a challenge. Recently, a novel Completely Random Measure (CRM) was introduced, demonstrating that this rate could be achieved within the vertex-exchangeable framework of Caron and Fox. This paper extends this work by demonstrating that this new CRM can be integrated into the alternative edge-exchangeable framework to achieve extreme sparsity.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on the choice of martingale updates, and many existing constructions do not exploit prior information about plausible data-generating distributions or mean values. We propose a Bayes-assisted framework that uses a Bayesian working predictive model to adaptively construct confidence sequences. For each candidate mean and time point, the predictive distribution selects, among valid one-step martingale factors, the update maximising predictive expected log-growth; validity is therefore preserved even when the prior or working model is misspecified. We prove that if the predictive distribution is Wasserstein-consistent, the resulting procedure is asymptotically log-optimal, matching the per-sample log-growth of an oracle procedure with access to the true distribution. We instantiate the framework using robust predictives based on Dirichlet-process mixtures and Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, sequential best-arm identification for LLM evaluation, and prediction-powered inference show that informative priors can substantially reduce confidence-sequence width and sampling effort while retaining anytime-valid coverage.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Confidence sequences with informative, bounded-influence priors

Confidence sequences are collections of confidence regions that simultaneously cover the true parameter for every sample size at a prescribed confidence level. Tightening these sequences is of practical interest and can be achieved by incorporating prior information through the method of mixture martingales. However, confidence sequences built from informative priors are vulnerable to misspecification and may become vacuous when the prior is poorly chosen. We study this trade-off for Gaussian observations with known variance. By combining the method of mixtures with a global informative prior whose tails are polynomial or exponential and the extended Ville's inequality, we construct confidence sequences that are sharper than their non-informative counterparts whenever the prior is well specified, yet remain bounded under arbitrary misspecification. The theory is illustrated with several classical priors.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inference

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Rapidly Varying Completely Random Measures for Modeling Extremely Sparse Networks

Completely random measures (CRMs) are fundamental to Bayesian nonparametric models, with applications in clustering, feature allocation, and network analysis. A key quantity of interest is the Laplace exponent, whose asymptotic behavior determines how the random structures scale. When the Laplace exponent grows nearly linearly - known as rapid variation - the induced models exhibit approximately linear growth in the number of clusters, features, or edges with sample size or network nodes. This regime is especially relevant for modeling sparse networks, yet existing CRM constructions lack tractability under rapid variation. We address this by introducing a new class of CRMs with index of variation $\alpha\in(0,1]$, defined as mixtures of stable or generalized gamma processes. These models offer interpretable parameters, include well-known CRMs as limiting cases, and retain analytical tractability through a tractable Laplace exponent and simple size-biased representation. We analyze the asymptotic properties of this CRM class and apply it to the Caron-Fox framework for sparse graphs. The resulting models produce networks with near-linear edge growth, aligning with empirical evidence from large-scale networks. Additionally, we present efficient algorithms for simulation and posterior inference, demonstrating practical advantages through experiments on real-world sparse network datasets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing the Power of Gaussian Graphical Model Inference by Modeling the Graph Structure

For the problem of inferring a Gaussian graphical model (GGM), this work explores the application of a recent approach from the multiple testing literature for graph inference. The main idea of the method by Rebafka et al. (2022) is to model the data by a latent variable model, the so-called noisy stochastic block model (NSBM), and then use the associated ${\ell}$-values to infer the graph. The inferred graph controls the false discovery rate, that means that the proportion of falsely declared edges does not exceed a user-defined nominal level. Here it is shown that any test statistic from the GGM literature can be used as input for the NSBM approach to perform GGM inference. To make the approach feasible in practice, a new, computationally efficient inference algorithm for the NSBM is developed relying on a greedy approach to maximize the integrated complete-data likelihood. Then an extensive numerical study illustrates that the NSBM approach outperforms the state of the art for any of the here considered GGM-test statistics. In particular in sparse settings and on real datasets a significant gain in power is observed.

stat.ME↗