arXiv subjects

Valentina Breschi

Publications and source records attributed to Valentina Breschi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Mixed-integer optimization for multi-year military aircraft fleet management

While existing strategies for Flight and Maintenance Planning for the defense sector generally address idealized conditions, real-world planning often involve non-nominal initial fleet states and complex inspection schemes. To address these challenges, we propose a multi-year planning strategy that maximizes long-term fleet availability. The formulation incorporates multiple competing objectives capturing the tight coupling between aircraft usage and maintenance, while enforcing cyclic inspection requirements and limited maintenance-dock capacity. To enhance practical applicability, we introduce three complementary strategies: a receding-horizon approach to reduce computational burden, a Bayesian Optimization routine to automatically tune cost-function coefficients, and an aircraft-specific weighting scheme that adapts model priorities based on fleet-condition statistics. Results on three realistic benchmark scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

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arXiv2026

A subspace approach to data-driven predictive control for linear parameter-varying systems

This paper presents a subspace data-driven predictive control method for linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems. Starting from an affine LPV state-space model in innovation form, we derive a multi-step predictor that separates the effects of past data, future inputs, scheduling trajectories, and innovations. By projecting this representation onto the row span of lifted input-output-scheduling data, we obtain an asymptotically unbiased data-driven predictor that can be embedded directly in a receding-horizon control problem, without explicitly identifying an LPV model. To make the resulting LPV data-driven predictive control (DDPC) formulation tractable, we introduce an LPV extension of $\gamma$-DDPC based on an LQ factorization. This formulation fixes the number of online decision variables independently of the length of the dataset. A reduced-order predictor is then proposed to curb the exponential growth of scheduling-dependent regressors, which also relaxes the persistence-of-excitation condition. Simulation studies, including an unbalanced-disk example, show that the proposed controller achieves good tracking performance and, compared to existing LPV DDPC schemes, achieves better robustness to measurement noise and reduced computational cost, making multi-step LPV DDPC practically deployable, even with longer past horizons.

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arXiv2026

When Persistency is not Exciting in Data-Driven Predictive Control

Understanding how to collect data that is meaningful for control purposes is of paramount importance in data-driven control. While existing approaches have primarily relied on the satisfaction of a rank condition to assess the quality of an experiment, we show that satisfying it is not always sufficient to achieve satisfactory closed-loop performance. Focusing on scenarios where white-noise-like excitation cannot be used for data collection, we examine the frequency-domain implications of linear behavioral representation. This analysis demonstrates that data must both satisfy the rank condition and excite the frequencies of interest for the control goal, thereby laying the foundations for control-oriented experiment design tailored to direct data-driven approaches. These findings are reflected in our numerical results. Data-enabled predictive controllers that rely on data satisfying the rank condition but neglect the tracking control goal result in a closed-loop system that cannot track the selected reference.

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arXiv2026

Beyond Shrinkage: Foundations of Data-Driven Control for Piecewise Affine Systems

Data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) has recently attracted attention as a promising approach for controlling systems directly from raw data, without requiring an explicit identification step. However, DeePC has not yet been extended to piecewise affine (PWA) systems, despite their extensive use in the (predictive) control literature and their universal approximation capabilities. To address this gap, in this work, we lay the foundations for data-enabled predictive control of PWA systems, providing: $(i)$ their behavioral characterization; $(ii)$ an extension of Willems' Fundamental Lemma to represent their behavior from raw data; $(iii)$ an analysis of the coherence of DeePC strategies using a linear predictor and shrinkage regularizers; and $(iv)$ a study of the impact of misclassification errors on structuring data for prediction. Our theoretical findings are validated by numerical results on a simple example, emphasizing the need to extend beyond a regularized version of the foundational DeePC framework to design control actions that are both effective and coherent with a PWA system's behavior, thus ensuring the controller's explainability.

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arXiv2026

PM-EKF: A Physiological Model-Based Extended Kalman Filter for Daily-Life Physical Activity Energy Expenditure Estimation

Monitoring physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in daily life is essential for characterizing individual health and metabolic status. Although indirect calorimetry provides gold-standard PAEE measurements, it is impractical for continuous daily-life monitoring. Consequently, wearable sensing approaches using inertial measurement units (IMUs) and heart rate (HR) sensors have attracted substantial interest. However, most existing IMU- and HR-based methods are purely data-driven and offer limited physiological interpretability. In this work, we propose a simplified physiological model that explicitly links body movement during activities of daily living to the underlying metabolic gas-exchange processes governing PAEE. The model is formulated as a nonlinear state-space system and embedded within an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), enabling principled handling of measurement noise, model uncertainty, and system nonlinearities. The proposed framework provides personalized, interpretable PAEE estimates without employing black-box models. Our model was validated using a dataset, including 9 subjects with around 50 minutes of measurements per subject, collected in our lab simulating a free-living condition. Using the respiratory data measured by COSMED K5 as reference and explained variance (R^2) as evaluation metric, our model's predicted PAEE yielded median (min-max) R^2 = 0.72 (0.60--0.87), using three IMUs (pelvis and two thighs) for capturing the body-center-of-mass motion and measured HR for the time-varying cardiac output. Our model outperformed a linear regression (LR) model (R^2 = 0.52 (0.23--0.92)) and CNN-LSTM model (R^2 = 0.65 (0.46--0.78)) on the same dataset. Notably, excluding the sensory HR measurement did not significantly degrade PAEE estimation of all three models, indicating that IMU-captured mechanical workload dominated PAEE estimation performance in our protocol.

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arXiv2026

Beyond Distributive Justice: Hermeneutical Fairness in Ad Delivery

Fairness in online advertising is often formalized as a distributive justice problem, aiming to ensure that impressions, opportunities, or outcomes are allocated comparably across protected groups. Yet online advertising can still produce harms arising from ads' content and from how recipients interpret and uptake them. To capture this dimension, we draw on Miranda Fricker's notion of hermeneutical injustice. We model ad delivery as a mechanism that distributes interpretative resources and can fail in two ways: relevant concepts can be withheld through systematic under-exposure, leading to hermeneutical deprivation; and recipients may experience hermeneutical distortions when saturated with low-uptake or skewed framings. Grounded in exploratory correlational patterns from the AIDS Advertising Evaluation surveys (1986-1987), we introduce a group-level hermeneutical fairness constraint and a hermeneutically aware utility cost. We integrate them into a benchmark, utility-driven ad allocation framework that already enforces distributive justice, yielding a distributively fair, hermeneutically aware framework that prevents deprivation and distortion from concentrating within protected groups. Through controlled simulations, we explore trade-offs between economic utility, classical distributive fairness constraints, and hermeneutical cost. The results show that purely utility-based allocation drives under-delivery to the disadvantaged group. When the hermeneutical stakes of withholding ads are high, distributive constraints reduce hermeneutical cost at modest utility loss. Conversely, weighting hermeneutical cost without distributive constraints can yield policies concentrated on the disadvantaged group. These findings motivate expanding fairness analyses of online advertising beyond distributive notions to include epistemic conditions of interpretation and uptake.

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arXiv2026

Measuring Epistemic Unfairness for Algorithmic Decision-Making

Algorithmic systems increasingly function as epistemic infrastructures that govern the conditions of interpretative access and social belief. Yet, mainstream auditing strategies operationalize fairness primarily in predictive terms - error rates, calibration, or group-level parity - leaving epistemic harms under-theorized and under-measured. We propose a quantitative framework for evaluating forms of epistemic injustice in algorithmic environments. First, we introduce a deficit-based template that models epistemic injustices as gaps between ideal and realized conditions across features such as credibility, uptake, and epistemic agency. We map these deficits to concrete stages of algorithmic mediation, showing how epistemic injustice can persist even when standard fairness constraints are satisfied. Drawing on distributive fairness indices, we distinguish two evaluation stances: resource inequality, where indices are applied to distributions of epistemic goods directly, and capability/rights inequity, where indices are applied to output-induced epistemic opportunity. We provide an epistemic translation of canonical indices, illustrating how they diagnose complementary signatures of unfairness - such as exclusionary tails and hierarchical concentration - and support longitudinal auditing under iterative deployment. We also provide a simulation study of a recommender-mediated opinion dynamics setting, showing how the proposed indices capture the evolution of epistemic unfairness under repeated platform interventions. The result is a measurement framework that makes the epistemic dimension of algorithmic harms explicit for system design and evaluation.

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arXiv2026

Explainable Condition Monitoring via Probabilistic Anomaly Detection Applied to Helicopter Transmissions

We present a novel Explainable methodology for Condition Monitoring, relying on healthy data only. Since faults are rare events, we propose to focus on learning the probability distribution of healthy observations only, and detect Anomalies at runtime. This objective is achieved via the definition of probabilistic measures of deviation from nominality, which allow to detect and anticipate faults. The Bayesian perspective underpinning our approach allows us to perform Uncertainty Quantification to inform decisions. At the same time, we provide descriptive tools to enhance the interpretability of the results, supporting the deployment of the proposed strategy also in safety-critical applications. The methodology is validated experimentally on two use cases: a publicly available benchmark for Predictive Maintenance, and a real-world Helicopter Transmission dataset collected over multiple years. In both applications, the method achieves competitive detection performance with respect to state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods.

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arXiv2026

Fairness-aware design of nudging policies under stochasticity and prejudices

We present an injustice-aware innovation-diffusion model extending the Generalized Linear Threshold framework by assigning agents activation thresholds drawn from a Beta distribution to capture the stochastic nature of adoption shaped by inequalities. Because incentive policies themselves can inadvertently amplify these inequalities, building on this model, we design a fair Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme that incorporates equality and equity objectives for allocating incentives. Simulations using real mobility-habit data show that injustice reduces overall adoption, while equality smooths incentive distribution and equity reduces disparities in the final outcomes. Thus, incorporating fairness ensures effective diffusion without exacerbating existing social inequalities.

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arXiv2025

Optimal policy design for innovation diffusion: shaping today's incentives for transforming the future

In this paper, we propose a new framework for the design of incentives aimed at promoting innovation diffusion in social influence networks. In particular, our framework relies on an extension of the Friedkin and Johnsen opinion dynamics model characterizing the effects of (i) short-memory incentives, which have an immediate yet transient impact, and (ii) long-term structural incentives, whose impact persists via an exponentially decaying memory. We propose to design these incentives via a model-predictive control (MPC) scheme over an augmented state that captures the memory in our opinion dynamics model, yielding a convex quadratic program with linear constraints. Our numerical simulations based on data on sustainable mobility habits show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which balances large-scale adoption and resource allocation

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arXiv2025

Constrained Performance Boosting Control for Nonlinear Systems

We present the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for Performance Boosting (PB), an approach for designing neural controllers for stable nonlinear systems subject to state and input constraints. The method builds on an internal model control formulation of PB. In this setting, the controller is parametrized as a stable neural operator, so closed-loop stability is guaranteed by construction, and its weights are trained offline to improve performance. To provide a systematic procedure for promoting constraint satisfaction during training, we reformulate the finite-horizon problem of the PB formulation by introducing auxiliary state and input trajectories. This augmentation allows us to cast an ADMM-based algorithm that alternates between two steps: a gradient-descent-based update of the controller parameters, having the same structure as the PB training problem without explicit constraints, and a projection step that promotes the trajectory feasibility. As a result, this procedure handles constraints during training without altering the controller architecture or compromising its stability-by-design guarantees. Indeed, the stability guarantee follows from the chosen stable controller parametrization, which is not changed in our framework with respect to the foundational PB formulation, and is independent of ADMM convergence. At the same time, this closed-loop stability guarantee does not imply performance optimality or closed-loop constraint satisfaction, which depend on the convergence of ADMM-PB, which is not yet guaranteed in this work. Our numerical results show that, compared with a baseline based on barrier-inspired soft penalties in the loss, ADMM-PB achieves lower constraint violations, at the price of more conservative closed-loop behavior.

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arXiv2025

Toward Federated DeePC: borrowing data from similar systems

Data-driven predictive control approaches, in general, and Data-enabled Predictive Control (DeePC), in particular, exploit matrices of raw input/output trajectories for control design. These data are typically gathered only from the system to be controlled. Nonetheless, the increasing connectivity and inherent similarity of (mass-produced) systems have the potential to generate a considerable amount of information that can be exploited to undertake a control task. In light of this, we propose a preliminary federated extension of DeePC that leverages a combination of input/output trajectories from multiple similar systems for predictive control. Supported by a suite of numerical examples, our analysis unveils the potential benefits of exploiting information from similar systems and its possible downsides.

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arXiv2025

A Scenario-based Model Predictive Control Scheme for Pandemic Response through Non-pharmaceutical Interventions

This paper presents a scenario-based model predictive control (MPC) scheme designed to control an evolving pandemic via non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs). The proposed approach combines predictions of possible pandemic evolution to decide on a level of severity of NPIs to be implemented over multiple weeks to maintain hospital pressure below a prescribed threshold, while minimizing their impact on society. Specifically, we first introduce a compartmental model which divides the population into Susceptible, Infected, Detected, Threatened, Healed, and Expired (SIDTHE) subpopulations and describe its positive invariant set. This model is expressive enough to explicitly capture the fraction of hospitalized individuals while preserving parameter identifiability w.r.t. publicly available datasets. Second, we devise a scenario-based MPC scheme with recourse actions that captures potential uncertainty of the model parameters. e.g., due to population behavior or seasonality. Our results show that the scenario-based nature of the proposed controller manages to adequately respond to all scenarios, keeping the hospital pressure at bay also in very challenging situations when conventional MPC methods fail.

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arXiv2025

The epistemic dimension of algorithmic fairness: assessing its impact in innovation diffusion and fair policy making

Algorithmic fairness is an expanding field that addresses a range of discrimination issues associated with algorithmic processes. However, most works in the literature focus on analyzing it only from an ethical perspective, focusing on moral principles and values that should be considered in the design and evaluation of algorithms, while disregarding the epistemic dimension related to knowledge transmission and validation. However, this aspect of algorithmic fairness should also be included in the debate, as it is crucial to introduce a specific type of harm: an individual may be systematically excluded from the dissemination of knowledge due to the attribution of a credibility deficit/excess. In this work, we specifically focus on characterizing and analyzing the impact of this credibility deficit or excess on the diffusion of innovations on a societal scale, a phenomenon driven by individual attitudes and social interactions, and also by the strength of mutual connections. Indeed, discrimination might shape the latter, ultimately modifying how innovations spread within the network. In this light, to incorporate, also from a formal point of view, the epistemic dimension in innovation diffusion models becomes paramount, especially if these models are intended to support fair policy design. For these reasons, we formalize the epistemic properties of a social environment, by extending the well-established Linear Threshold Model (LTM) in an epistemic direction to show the impact of epistemic biases in innovation diffusion. Focusing on the impact of epistemic bias in both open-loop and closed-loop scenarios featuring optimal fostering policies, our results shed light on the pivotal role the epistemic dimension might have in the debate of algorithmic fairness in decision-making.

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arXiv2025

Uncertainty-aware data-driven predictive control in a stochastic setting

Data-Driven Predictive Control (DDPC) has been recently proposed as an effective alternative to traditional Model Predictive Control (MPC), in that the same constrained optimization problem can be addressed without the need to explicitly identify a full model of the plant. However, DDPC is built upon input/output trajectories. Therefore, the finite sample effect of stochastic data, due to, e.g., measurement noise, may have a detrimental impact on closed-loop performance. Exploiting a formal statistical analysis of the prediction error, in this paper we propose the first systematic approach to deal with uncertainty due to finite sample effects. To this end, we introduce two regularization strategies for which, differently from existing regularization-based DDPC techniques, we propose a tuning rationale allowing us to select the regularization hyper-parameters before closing the loop and without additional experiments. Simulation results confirm the potential of the proposed strategy when closing the loop.

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arXiv2025

CoCoAFusE: Beyond Mixtures of Experts via Model Fusion

Many learning problems involve multiple patterns and varying degrees of uncertainty dependent on the covariates. Advances in Deep Learning (DL) have addressed these issues by learning highly nonlinear input-output dependencies. However, model interpretability and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) have often straggled behind. In this context, we introduce the Competitive/Collaborative Fusion of Experts (CoCoAFusE), a novel, Bayesian Covariates-Dependent Modeling technique. CoCoAFusE builds on the very philosophy behind Mixtures of Experts (MoEs), blending predictions from several simple sub-models (or "experts") to achieve high levels of expressiveness while retaining a substantial degree of local interpretability. Our formulation extends that of a classical Mixture of Experts by contemplating the fusion of the experts' distributions in addition to their more usual mixing (i.e., superimposition). Through this additional feature, CoCoAFusE better accommodates different scenarios for the intermediate behavior between generating mechanisms, resulting in tighter credible bounds on the response variable. Indeed, only resorting to mixing, as in classical MoEs, may lead to multimodality artifacts, especially over smooth transitions. Instead, CoCoAFusE can avoid these artifacts even under the same structure and priors for the experts, leading to greater expressiveness and flexibility in modeling. This new approach is showcased extensively on a suite of motivating numerical examples and a collection of real-data ones, demonstrating its efficacy in tackling complex regression problems where uncertainty is a key quantity of interest.

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arXiv2025

Insights into the explainability of Lasso-based DeePC for nonlinear systems

Data-enabled Predictive Control (DeePC) has recently gained the spotlight as an easy-to-use control technique that allows for constraint handling while relying on raw data only. Initially proposed for linear time-invariant systems, several DeePC extensions are now available to cope with nonlinear systems. Nonetheless, these solutions mainly focus on ensuring the controller's effectiveness, overlooking the explainability of the final result. As a step toward explaining the outcome of DeePC for the control of nonlinear systems, in this paper, we focus on analyzing the earliest and simplest DeePC approach proposed to cope with nonlinearities in the controlled system, using a Lasso regularization. Our theoretical analysis highlights that the decisions undertaken by DeePC with Lasso regularization are unexplainable, as control actions are determined by data incoherent with the system's local behavior. This result is true even when the available input/output samples are grouped according to the different operating conditions explored during data collection. Our numerical study confirms these findings, highlighting the benefits of data grouping in terms of performance while showing that explainability remains a challenge in control design via DeePC.

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arXiv2025

In-Context Learning for Zero-Shot Speed Estimation of BLDC motors

Accurate speed estimation in sensorless brushless DC motors is essential for high-performance control and monitoring, yet conventional model-based approaches struggle with system nonlinearities and parameter uncertainties. In this work, we propose an in-context learning framework leveraging transformer-based models to perform zero-shot speed estimation using only electrical measurements. By training the filter offline on simulated motor trajectories, we enable real-time inference on unseen real motors without retraining, eliminating the need for explicit system identification while retaining adaptability to varying operating conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional Kalman filter-based estimators, especially in low-speed regimes that are crucial during motor startup.

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