Valentino Dardanoni | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Rational Expectations in Empirical Bayes

We propose a principled framework for nonparametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimation, based on the idea that the prior should be consistent with the observed posterior and that Bayesian updating should be stable. Focusing on discretized priors, we characterize EB estimators as fixed points of a posterior belief operator. We establish the uniqueness of such fixed points and illustrate how the approach improves transparency and interpretability in standard EB settings, including a recent model of discrimination.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Inter-firm Heterogeneity in Production

This paper studies inter-firm heterogeneity in production. Unlike much of the existing research, which primarily addresses heterogeneous production through unobserved fixed effects, our approach also focuses on differences in factors' output elasticities. Using manufacturing data from Chile, Colombia, and Japan, we apply an innovative Empirical Bayes methodology to estimate heterogeneous Cobb-Douglas production functions. We uncover substantial heterogeneity in both factor neutral productivity and factor elasticities, with a strong negative correlation between them. These findings are consistently observed across datasets and remain robust when using CES and intensive Cobb-Douglas specifications. We show that accounting for these features has significant implications for issues such as markup estimation, firms' technology adoption, and productivity measurement.

econ.GN↗