arXiv subjects

Valeri V. Makarov

Publications and source records attributed to Valeri V. Makarov.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A posteriori correction of Gaia CRF proper motions using conditional probability and zero-parallax prior

Precision of proper motions and positions given in the Gaia Celestial Reference Frame (CRF) catalog can be statistically improved introducing conditional probability based on the prior knowledge of zero parallax for these extremely distant sources. The method developed in this study produces statistically conditioned proper-motion estimates under the assumed per-source Gaussian covariance model. It is demonstrated that thus corrected proper motion vectors of 1.2 million CRF objects in Gaia DR3 show a tighter distribution around zero and a general reduction in the rate of outliers by approximately 15\%. A general vector spherical harmonic fit to degree 4 is produced with the corrected data for a filtered subset of CRF quasars with redshifts between 1 and 1.5. This application, predicated on the unknown stochastic component of the global parallax field, shows a 3-sigma change in the estimated magnitude of the Galactocentric acceleration of the solar system barycenter, quantifying the sensitivity of this fundamental determination to the proposed conditioning of proper motions.

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arXiv2026

Gaia parallax bias via spherical harmonics: A Python tool and discussion of possible causes

Parallaxes in Gaia DR3 are known to suffer from a complex set of sky-correlated and magnitude-dependent offsets or biases at the level of a few tens of $μ$as. Estimated from a sample of one million distant quasars and AGNs from the CRF catalog, the average offset is negative, but the actual distribution of this important parameter shows significant variations on the sky. We propose a practical method to evaluate the parallax correction as a function of sky position and, optionally, of $G$ magnitude using a spherical harmonic series, and supply a tested Python tool {\tt varpi3.py} available on Zenodo\footnote{ https://zenodo.org/records/21708614}. We find that only the constant $Y_{00}$ term is significantly dependent on magnitude, while the other 80 harmonic terms are either close to zero or flat with magnitude. The directions of the smallest and largest parallax offsets are $(l,b)\simeq(220\degr,+43\degr)$ and $(l,b)\simeq(45\degr,-45\degr)$, which are close to the orientation of the quasar density dipole reported in recent publications. Motivated by this curious coincidence, we review possible physical effects resulting in a negative bias of measured parallaxes, including an anisotropic universe with a positive curvature and an orbital aberration component. The proposed method of parallax correction is tested using independent asteroseismology data for four different areas on the sphere. Finally, we show that the parallax zero-point propagates into the CRF proper-motion field through the parallax--proper-motion covariance, biasing the vector spherical harmonic determination of the secular-aberration glide, and hence the Galactocentric acceleration, at the microarcsecond-per-year level.

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arXiv2026

Systematic Effects in Gaia CRF Photometry Related to Scanning Geometry and BP/RP excess factor

I report a previously undocumented, large-amplitude systematic dependence of the median Gaia $G$-band magnitude of CRF3 sources on \texttt{ra\_dec\_corr}, which reflects the preferred direction of scans, accompanied by a partially correlated trend in the BP/RP flux excess factor. Given the imminent release of Gaia DR4, the purpose of this note is alerting the community to this artifact.

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arXiv2026

Mapping the Universe as a Bianchi I cosmology with Gaia data

Measurements of tangential drifts of distant quasars and galactic nuclei on the celestial sphere provide a novel and independent method of testing cosmological hypotheses. In this work, we employ an axisymmetric Bianchi I model as a relatively simple phenomenological model that is useful for quantifying departures from the cosmological principle. Using a quality-filtered sample of 1.2 million proper motion vectors of distant quasars from Gaia Data Release 3, we perform global fits of the position drift fields with vector spherical harmonics (VSH) to second degree for five non-overlapping subsets of the sources with redshifts from 0.5 to 3, and assess the ability of the Bianchi I model to describe the signal. We theoretically demonstrate that an axisymmetric Bianchi I model produces a signal that can be described as a single quadrupole VSH term with an eigendirection which is aligned with the axis of maximum expansion anisotropy. We estimate this preferred direction from the Gaia data and the VSH fit, and perform point-estimates of the amplitude of the signal as a function of redshift. Although a significant quadrupole signal is detected in each bin, the increase of the amplitude of the signal with redshift predicted by the Bianchi I model is not confidently confirmed. The estimated value of the local expansion shear is higher than expected. Possible advances in describing the kinematic patterns of a high-redshift Universe with more complex cosmologies accommodating time-dependent anisotropy and rotation are discussed.

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arXiv2026

Robust 1-norm periodograms for analysis of noisy non-Gaussian time series with irregular cadences: Application to VLBI astrometry of quasars

Astronomical time series often have non-uniform sampling in time, or irregular cadences, with long gaps separating clusters of observations. Some of these data sets are also explicitly non-Gaussian with respect to the expected model fit, or the simple mean. The standard Lomb-Scargle periodogram is based on the least squares solution for a set of test periods and, therefore, is easily corrupted by a subset of statistical outliers or an intrinsically non-Gaussian population. It can produce completely misleading results for heavy-tailed distribution of residuals. We propose a robust 1-norm periodogram technique, which is based on the principles of robust statistical estimation. This technique can be implemented in weighted or unweighted options. The method is described in detail and compared with the classical least squares periodogram on a set of astrometric VLBI measurements of the ICRF quasar IERS B0642+449. It is uniformly applied to a collection of 259 ICRF3 quasars each with more than 200 epoch VLBI measurements, resulting in a list of 49 objects with quasi-periodic position changes above the $3σ$ level, which warrant further investigation.

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arXiv2026

The Peculiar Velocity of Messier~87 from Microarcsecond Geodetic VLBI Astrometry

Our knowledge of the space velocity of Messier 87, which is the dominant galaxy in the Virgo cluster, has been limited to the radial velocity component. Using a cadence of precision position measurements with the global geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) system over 28 years, we determined the proper motion vector of the radio-emitting core by a robust statistical method involving 1-norm optimization and bootstrapping. The proper motion vector is directed at a position angle $189.2\degr \pm 3.5\degr$ in the equatorial International Celestial Reference Frame, and its magnitude is $10.19$ $μ$as yr$^{-1}$ with an uncertainty of $0.64$ $μ$as yr$^{-1}$. The projected velocity of the AGN in the tangential sky plane is ($787\pm50$)~km~s$^{-1}$. The peculiar velocity of Messier 87 with respect to the preferred rest frame of the cosmic microwave background field is approximately 1037 km s$^{-1}$ (assuming a distance of 16.1 Mpc) with an angle of 65$^\circ$ to the current line of sight, which implies a tangential relative motion of M87 and the Galaxy. The peculiar velocity of M87 is directionally concordant with the reconstructed and $Λ$CDM-simulated motion of the Virgo filament towards the Great Attractor, but the Milky Way moves slower by 470 ~km~s$^{-1}$ in that direction.

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arXiv2026

Synchronisation of a tidal binary by inward orbital migration. The case of Pluto and Charon

It is usually taken for granted that mutual synchronisation of a tidal two-body system is attained through tidal recession, assuming the reduced Hill sphere is not reached. However, synchronisation can be achieved also via tidal approach, provided the Roche limit is not crossed. For each of the two scenarios, we derive the condition under which the evolving synchronicity radius catches up with the tidally evolving orbit. We consider the two scenarios for the Pluto-Charon system and examine the impact-origin hypothesis of Charon's formation against capture. Based on geophysical evidence, we propose that capture appears more likely. Motivated by this conclusion, we investigate the capture scenario, wherein the orbital evolution of Charon starts at a larger distance than present and undergoes tidal descent, both analytically and numerically. We also consider the possibility that Pluto's initial prograde spin underwent a reversal by a tidally approaching retrograde Charon. Depending on the initial conditions, we observe temporary locking of Charon into higher spin-orbit resonances (3:2 to 7:2) during the first 0.5 Myr of the system's evolution. Owing to a greater initial separation between the partners, the power dissipated in each of them turns out to be much lower than in the case of tidal recession of bodies of the same internal structure. The greater initial separation also results in lower tidal stress, which may explain the absence of tidally generated fracture patterns.

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arXiv2025

Distributions of wide binary stars in theory and in Gaia data: III. Orbital momenta, masses, and manifestations of MOND

Using the censored catalog of 103,169 resolved Gaia DR3 binary stars with accurate astrometric data for each component, a new observable, object-specific parameter is computed for each pair: the projected orbital momentum. This parameter is the product of four functions of physical characteristics: total mass, semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination angle. Using the previously estimated marginal probability densities of eccentricity and semimajor axis, and assuming an isotropic orientation of binary systems, the sample distribution of mass was adjusted using a concordance metric of the observed and synthetic distributions of orbital momenta and an ad hoc functional model. The best-fitting mass density model is found to faithfully reproduce the observed dependence of orbital momenta on apparent separation, although the absolute luminosity distributions indicate a tendency of the widest systems to more frequently include solar-type primaries. The anticipated manifestation of MOND is computed in the investigated parameter space \{separation, momentum\}. This effect is absent in the given data. The median total mass of the widest Gaia binaries is found to be somewhat higher than that of the tighter pairs, which is interpreted as a dynamical age effect.

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arXiv2025

Initial conditions for tidal synchronisation of a planet by its moon

Moons tidally interact with their host planets and stars. A close moon is quickly synchronised by the planet, or becomes captured in a higher spin-orbit resonance. However, the planet requires much more time to significantly alter its rotation rate under the influence of moon-generated tides. The situation becomes more complex for close-in planets, as star-generated tides come into play and compete with the moon-generated tides. Synchronisation of the planet by its moon changes the tidal dynamics of the entire star-planet-moon system and can lead to long-term stable configurations. In this paper, we demonstrate that a certain initial condition must be met for this to occur. Based on the angular-momentum conservation, the derived condition is universal and bears no dependence upon the planet's internal structure or tidal dissipation model. It is applicable to dwindling systems as well as tidally expanding orbits, and to the cases of initially retrograde motion. We present calculations for specific planet-moon systems (Earth and the Moon; Neptune and Triton; Venus and its hypothetical presently-extinct moon Neith; Mars, Phobos, and Deimos; Pluto and Charon), to constrain the dynamically plausible formation and evolution scenarios. Among other things, our analysis prompts the question of whether Pluto and Charon evolved into their current state from an initially more compact configuration (as is commonly assumed) or from a wider orbit -- a topic to be discussed at length elsewhere. Our results are equally applicable to exoplanets. For example, if asynchronous close-in exoplanets are detected, the possibility of tidal synchronisation by an exomoon should be considered.

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arXiv2025

Distributions of wide binary stars in theory and in Gaia data: II. Reconstruction of sample probability density of true orbit sizes

Wide binary stars are important for testing alternative models of gravitation in the weak-field regime and understanding the statistical outcomes of dynamical interactions in the general Galactic field. The Gaia mission's collection of weakly bound pairs of stars offers a unique opportunity to estimate the rate of survivors at separations above 7 KAU, where non-Newtonian components of gravitation may become important. The available Gaia-based catalogs of resolved binaries provide the projected angular separation between the components, while the physical semimajor axis is the parameter of interest. The problem of reconstructing the distribution of orbit sizes is complex and ill-posed, because the observed apparent separations are defined by a number of underlying physical parameters including semimajor axis, eccentricity, orbit orientation, and orbital phase. Methods of inverse reconstruction of the marginal distribution of semimajor axes from the available data are proposed and implemented with two different strategies, namely, a direct Monte Carlo mapping and inverse filtering with impulse updates without regularization. We find rather similar results from the two methods for the outlying tail of the distribution, suggesting that the rate of orbit sizes is a shallow declining function on a logarithmic scale. A finite rate of extremely wide binaries is implied.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Kinematic Distortions of the High-Redshift Universe as Seen from Quasar Proper Motions

Advances in optical astrometry allow us to infer the non-radial kinematic structure of the Universe directly from observations. Here I use a supervised machine learning neural network method to predict 1.57 million redshifts based on several photometric and metadata classifier parameters from the unWISE mid-infrared database and from Gaia. These estimates are used to divide the sample into three redshift bins: 1-2, 2-3, and $>3$. For each subset, all available Gaia proper motions are used in a global vector spherical harmonic solution to degree 3 (30 fitting vector functions). I find significant differences in a few fitted proper motion patterns at different redshifts. The largest signals are seen in the comparison of the vector spherical harmonic fits for the 1-2 and 2-3 redshift bins. The significant harmonics include a rigid spin, a dipole glide from the north Galactic pole to the south and an additional quadrupole distortion. Validation tests with filtered subsamples indicate that the detected effect can be caused by hidden systematic errors in astrometry. The results are verified by using an independent source of redshifts and computing the observer's Galactocentric acceleration. This study offers a new observational test of alternative cosmological models.

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arXiv2025

Orbital inclination of astrometric binaries and the dearth of face-on orbits in Gaia DR3 solutions

The orbital solutions for astrometric (unresolved) binary stars provided in the Gaia mission Data Release 3 reveal an obvious deficit of face-on orbits with line-of-sight inclinations close to 0 or $π$. This is shown to be an intrinsic mathematical feature of the orbit estimation technique involving the intermediate Thiele-Innes parameters, which are transformed to the Campbell geometric parameters. A direct condition equation defining the inclination angle via the Thiele-Innes values independently of the other orbital elements is used to investigate the origin of this near-degeneracy for face-on orbits. The emerging bias and correlation of inclination and semimajor axis are illustrated using Monte Carlo simulations for two specific template configurations representing face-on and edge-on orbits. The results have significant impact on the interpretation and follow-up confirmation of Gaia-detected binary systems, including candidate exoplanets and brown dwarf companions.

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arXiv2025

Distributions of wide binary stars in theory and in Gaia data: I. Generalized Ambartsumian (1937) approach and the family of power-law distributions of eccentricity

The orbital parameter space of wide, weakly bound binary stars has been shaped by the still poorly known circumstances of their formation, as well as by subsequent dynamical evolution in parent clusters and in the field. The advance of the Gaia mission astrometry takes statistical studies of wide stellar systems to an unprecedented level of precision and scope. On the theoretical side of the problem, the old approach proposed by Jeans and developed by Ambartsumian is revisited here. It is shown how certain simplifying assumptions about the phase density of binary systems in the framework of general copula distributions can lead to a family of analytical representations for the marginal distribution of orbital eccentricity, including accommodating and flexible power-law models. We further demonstrate the application of these models in forward Monte Carlo simulations of the measured motion angles between the relative velocity and separation vectors on the example of 170K listed Gaia binary systems, providing inference in the intrinsic distribution of orbital eccentricity.

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arXiv2024

Partial Alignment of Astrometric Position Excursions of International Celestial Reference Frame Quasars with Radio Jet Structures

Published analyses of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data for the sources included in the third International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3) catalog have revealed object-specific, excess astrometric variability and quasi-coherent trajectories as functions of time. A fraction of these sources show markedly elongated distributions of positions on the sky measured with diurnal observations. Here we apply a novel statistical and data-processing method to the diurnal position measurements stretching over 40 years to quantify the degree of elongation and its position angle, for each source with more than 200 data points. We find that 49\% of the examined sources have distribution elongations in excess of 1.3. Robust uncertainties of the directions of maximal astrometric dispersion are computed by the bootstrapping method, and the results are compared with a larger catalog of radio jet directions by Plavin et al. 2022. Nearly one-half of the sources with smaller position angle uncertainties are found to have astrometric position excursions from their mean positions aligned with the radio jet structures within $\pm 30\degr$.

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arXiv2024

Optical variability of Gaia CRF3 sources with robust statistics and the 5000 most variable quasars

Using the light curve time series data for more than 11.7 million variable sources published in the Gaia Data Release 3, the average magnitudes, colors, and variability parameters have been computed for 0.836 million Gaia CRF objects, which are mostly quasars and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). To mitigate the effects of occasional flukes in the data, robust statistical measures have been employed, namely, the median, median absolute deviation, and Spearman correlation. We find that the majority of the CRF sources have moderate amplitudes of variability in the Gaia $G$ band just below 0.1 mag. The heavy-tailed distribution of variability amplitudes (quantified as robust standard deviations) does not find a single analytical form, but is closer to Maxwell distribution with a scale of 0.078 mag. The majority of CRF sources have positive correlations between $G$ magnitude and $G_{\rm BP}-G_{\rm RP}$ colors, meaning that these quasars and AGNs become bluer when they are brighter. The variations in the BP and RP bands are also mostly positively correlated. Dependencies of all variability parameters with cosmological redshift are fairly flat for the more accurate estimates above redshift 0.7, while the median color shows strong systematic variations with redshift. Using a robust normalized score of magnitude deviations, a sample of 5000 most variable quasars is selected and published. The intersection of this sample with the ICRF3 catalog shows a much higher rate of strongly variable quasars (mostly, blazars) in ICRF3.

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arXiv2024

Verification of astrometrically accelerating stars from Hipparcos and Gaia: I. Methodology and application to HIP 44842

A large number of candidate binary stars with apparent acceleration on the sky has emerged from analysis of astrometric data collected by the Hipparcos, Tycho-2, and Gaia space missions. Although the apparent acceleration can serve as a relatively reliable indicator of binarity, it provides scarce information about the orbital and physical parameters of the components. With an emphasis on the search for stellar-mass black holes and neutron stars hidden in binary systems, we start a broader effort to characterize the most promising candidates using follow-up ground-based observations. Accurate quantification of orbital and physical parameters of systems with dim or invisible companions requires combination of Hipparcos, Gaia, and precision spectroscopic measurements. In this paper, we review the necessary steps in this implementation and describe the improved Hipparcos-Gaia sample of long-term astrometric accelerations which includes correction of sky-correlated systematic errors using the vector spherical decomposition method. As an example, we study one Hipparcos star with a large acceleration, HIP 44842, where the companion is revealed to be a normal main sequence star.

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arXiv2023

Chaotic Capture of a Retrograde Moon by Venus and the Reversal of Its Spin

(Abridged) Planets are surrounded by fractal surfaces (traditionally called Hill spheres), separating the inner zones of long-term stable orbital motion of their satellites from the outer space where the gravitational pull from the Sun takes over. Through this surface, external minor bodies in trajectories loosely co-orbital to a planet can be stochastically captured by the planet without any assistance from external perturbative forces, and can become moons chaotically orbiting the planet for extended periods of time. Using state-of-the-art orbital integrators, we simulate such capture events for Venus, resulting in long-term attachment phases by reversing the forward integration of a moon initially attached to the planet and escaping it after an extended period of time. Although the probability of a long-term chaotic capture from a single encounter is generally low, the high density of co-orbital bodies in the primordial protoplanetary disk makes this outcome possible, if not probable. The early Venus was surrounded by a dusty gaseous disk of its own, which, coupled with the tidal dissipation of the kinetic energy in the moon and the planet, could shrink the initial orbit and stabilize the captured body within the Hill surface. The tidal torque from the moon, for which we use the historical name Neith, gradually brakes the prograde rotation of Venus, and then reverses it, while the orbit continues to decay. Neith eventually reaches the Roche radius and disintegrates, probably depositing most of its material on Venus' surface. Our calculations show that surface density values of about 0.06 kg m$^{-2}$ for the debris disk may be sufficient to stabilize the initial chaotic orbit of Neith and to bring it down within several radii of Venus, where tidal dissipation becomes more efficient.

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arXiv2023

On the orbital decay of the gas giant Kepler-1658b

The gas giant Kepler-1658b has been inferred to be spiralling into its sub-giant F-type host star Kepler-1658a (KOI-4). The measured rate of change of its orbital period is $\dot{P}_{\rm orb}=-131^{+20}_{-22}\mathrm{ms/yr}$, which can be explained by tidal dissipation in the star if its modified tidal quality factor is as low as $Q^{\,\prime}\approx 2.50\times {10}^{4}$. We explore whether this could plausibly be consistent with theoretical predictions based on applying up-to-date tidal theory in stellar models (varying stellar mass, age, and metallicity) consistent with our newly-derived observational constraints. In most of our models matching the combined constraints on the stellar effective temperature and radius, the dissipation in the star is far too weak, capable of providing $Q^{\,\prime}\gtrsim 10^9$, hence contributing negligibly to orbital evolution. Using only constraints on the stellar radius, efficient tidal dissipation sufficient to explain observations is possible due to inertial waves in the convective envelope during the sub-giant phase, providing $Q^{\,\prime}\sim 10^4$, but this period in the evolution is very short-lived (shorter than $10^2$ yrs in our models). We show that dissipation in the planet is capable of explaining the observed $\dot{P}_\mathrm{orb}$ only if the planet rotates non-synchronously. Tidally-induced pericentre precession is a viable explanation if the periastron argument is near $3π/2$ and the quadrupolar Love number is above 0.26. Further observations constraining the stellar and planetary properties in this system have the exciting potential to test tidal theories in stars and planets.

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