arXiv subjects

Valeria Fanghella

Publications and source records attributed to Valeria Fanghella.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Priming prosocial behavior and expectations in response to the Covid-19 pandemic -- Evidence from an online experiment

This paper studies whether and how differently projected information about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic affects individuals' prosocial behavior and expectations on future outcomes. We conducted an online experiment with British participants (N=961) when the UK introduced its first lockdown and the outbreak was on its growing stage. Participants were primed with either the environmental or economic consequences (i.e., negative primes), or the environmental or economic benefits (i.e., positive primes) of the pandemic, or with neutral information. We measured priming effects on an incentivized take-and-give dictator game and on participants' expectations about future environmental quality and economic growth. Our results show that primes affect participants' expectations, but not their prosociality. In particular, participants primed with environmental consequences hold a more pessimistic view on future environmental quality, while those primed with economic benefits are more optimistic about future economic growth. Instead, the positive environmental prime and the negative economic prime do not influence expectations. Our results offer insights into how information affects behavior and expectations during the Covid-19 pandemic.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe

This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an illustration, we estimate the GDP loss caused by COVID-19 in twelve European countries during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results are almost indistinguishable from the official statistics of the recession during the first two quarters of 2020 (correlation coefficient of 0.98) and are validated by several robustness tests. However, they are also more chronologically disaggregated and up-to-date than standard macroeconomic indicators and, therefore, can provide crucial and timely information for policy evaluation. Our results show that delaying intervention and pursuing 'herd immunity' have not been successful strategies so far, since they increased both economic disruption and mortality. We also find that coordinating policies internationally is fundamental for minimizing spillover effects from NPIs across countries.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Real-time estimation of the short-run impact of COVID-19 on economic activity using electricity market data

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses' temporary shutdowns, in an attempt to curb the spread of the infection. Accordingly, the pandemic has been generating unprecedent disruption on practically every aspect of society. This paper demonstrates that high-frequency electricity market data can be used to estimate the causal, short-run impact of COVID-19 on the economy. In the current uncertain economic conditions, timeliness is essential. Unlike official statistics, which are published with a delay of a few months, with our approach one can monitor virtually every day the impact of the containment policies, the extent of the recession and measure whether the monetary and fiscal stimuli introduced to address the crisis are being effective. We illustrate our methodology on daily data for the Italian day-ahead power market. Not surprisingly, we find that the containment measures caused a significant reduction in economic activities and that the GDP at the end of in May 2020 is still about 11% lower that what it would have been without the outbreak.

econ.GN↗