Ruelle--Pollicott Theory for Metastable Systems: A Unified Framework for Tipping Transitions
Tipping points---abrupt, potentially irreversible reorganizations of a system's statistical state---are commonly anticipated through critical slowing down: recovery slows, autocorrelation and variance rise, and spectra redden. This paradigm is powerful near simple equilibrium bifurcations but is not a general theory for stochastic, multistable, or metastable systems. We develop such a theory from the Ruelle--Pollicott (RP) spectrum of Kolmogorov generators of hypoelliptic It\^o diffusions. Resolving the sensitivity of invariant statistics on RP spectral blocks shows that each contribution factorizes into a spectral denominator and a residue coupling the block to both the observable and perturbation direction. Small denominators permit large responses; residues produce them. Thus a closing RP gap is not sufficient for an early warning, while growing residues can generate the classical signature with no gap closure. An early-warning signal is therefore a property of a triple: RP block, observable, and perturbation direction. We demonstrate this on a stochastic non-normal system whose RP spectrum is exactly frozen, yet classical indicators become more alarming than during genuine gap closure. The RP decomposition attributes this to residue growth and yields an index $\mathcal{N}(f)$ satisfying $\mathcal{N}(f)\leq 1$ for reversible dynamics; hence $\mathcal{N}(f)>1$ certifies residue-driven amplification. For metastable systems, one killed problem yields two complementary spectral objects: the Doob $Q$-process isolates in-well recovery, while escape clocks and committor-weighted destination probabilities govern interwell transitions. In a one-dimensional fold, these scale as $(\epsilon_c-\epsilon)^{1/2}$ and $(\epsilon_c-\epsilon)^{3/2}$, separating bifurcation-induced from noise-induced tipping. Doob drift also connects to optimal Girsanov sampling.