arXiv subjects

Valerio Lucarini

Publications and source records attributed to Valerio Lucarini.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments

In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of the GCMs by analysing their performance in simulating the 20th century climate (1961-2000 period) using historical forcing (20c3m experiment), and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding 21st and 22nd century climates under the SRESA1B scenario. The CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus Basin is poor in most cases, with a few GCMs not capturing the monsoonal signal at all. While the model outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitation, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while their spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For the future climate scenarios, most models foresee a decrease in the winter P - E over all four basins, while agreement is found on the decrease of the spring P - E over the Indus and Ganges basins only. Such decreases in P - E are mainly due to the decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, for the Indus and Ganges basins, the runoff drops during the spring season while it rises during the winter season. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus Basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff, along with ...

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high concentration pathway 21st century scenario

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over Northern Africa, Southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 % of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to two weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

The Impact of Oceanic Heat Transport on the Atmospheric Circulation: a Thermodynamic Perspective

The present study investigates how global thermodynamic properties of the climate system are affected by the changes in the intensity of the imposed oceanic heat transport in an atmospheric general circulation model in aqua-planet configuration. Increasing the poleward oceanic heat transport results in an overall increase in the surface temperature and a decrease in the equator-to-pole surface temperature difference as a result of the ice-albedo feedback. Following the classical ansatz by Stone, the atmospheric heat transport changes in such a way that the total poleward heat transport remains almost unchanged. We also find that the efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport which suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production, as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperature, thus reducing the availability in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Climate of Earth-like planets with high obliquity and eccentric orbits: implications for habitability conditions

We explore the effects of seasonal variability for the climate of Earth-like planets as determined by the two parameters polar obliquity and orbital eccentricity using a general circulation model of intermediate complexity. In the first part of the paper we examine the consequences of different values of obliquity and eccentricity for the spatio-temporal patterns of radiation and surface temperatures as well as for the main characteristics of the atmospheric circulations. In the second part we analyse the associated implications for the habitability of planets close to the outer edge of the habitable zone (HZ). This part of the paper focuses in particular on the multistability property of climate, i.e. the parallel existence of both an ice-free and an ice-covered climate state. Our results show that seasonal variability affects both the existence of and transitions between the two climate states. Moreover, our experiments reveal that planets with Earth-like atmospheres and high seasonal variability can have ice-free areas at much larger distance from the host star than planets without seasonal variability, which leads to a substantial expansion of the outer edge of the HZ. Sensitivity experiments exploring the role of azimuthal obliquity and surface heat capacity test the robustness of our results. On circular orbits, our findings obtained with a general circulation model agree well with previous studies based on one dimensional energy balance models, whereas significant differences are found on eccentric orbits.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized earthlike aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is put on the Lorenz energy cycle and the atmospheric mean meridional circulation. The latter is analysed by means of the Kuo-Eliassen equation. The atmospheric heat transport compensates the imposed oceanic heat transport changes to a large extent in conjunction with significant modification of the general circulation. Up to a maximum about 3PW, an increase of the oceanic heat transport leads to an increase of the global mean near surface temperature and a decrease of its equator-to-pole gradient. For larger transports, the gradient is reduced further but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. A larger oceanic heat transport leads to a reduction of all reservoirs and conversions of the Lorenz energy cycle but of different relative magnitude for the individual components. The available potential energy of the zonal mean flow and its conversion to eddy available potential energy are affected most. Both Hadley and Ferrel cell show a decline for increasing oceanic heat transport with the Hadley cell being more sensitive. Both cells exhibit a poleward shift of their maxima, and the Hadley cell broadens for larger oceanic transports. The partitioning by means of the Kuo-Eliassen equation reveals that zonal mean diabatic heating and friction are the most important sources for changes of the Hadley cell while the behaviour of the Ferrell cell is mostly controlled by friction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time scales. Conceptually, our results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, our results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. Our results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modelling. In this review we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspectives. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring one maximum in the monthly rain distribution, it is related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. CMIP5 models consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in Western Africa and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a GCM are associated with simulated monthly precipitation fractions which are too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding the wet season; negative biases are instead due to an excess of rainfall during the dry months.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Mathematical and Physical Ideas for Climate Science

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring non-trivial dynamics of a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of a unifying picture of its dynamics and for the implementation of accurate and efficient numerical models. We present some recent developments at the intersection between climate science, mathematics, and physics, which may prove fruitful in the direction of constructing a more comprehensive account of climate dynamics. We describe the Nambu formulation of fluid dynamics, and the potential of such a theory for constructing sophisticated numerical models of geophysical fluids. Then, we focus on the statistical mechanics of quasi-equilibrium flows in a rotating environment, which seems crucial for constructing a robust theory of geophysical turbulence. We then discuss ideas and methods suited for approaching directly the non-equilibrium nature of the climate system. First, we describe some recent findings on the thermodynamics of climate and characterize its energy and entropy budgets, and discuss related methods for intercomparing climate models and for studying tipping points. These ideas can also create a common ground between geophysics and astrophysics by suggesting general tools for studying exoplanetary atmospheres. We conclude by focusing on non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, which allows for a unified framing of problems as different as the climate response to forcings, the effect of altering the boundary conditions or the coupling between geophysical flows, and the derivation of parametrizations for numerical models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Equivalence of Non-Equilibrium Ensembles and Representation of Friction in Turbulent Flows: The Lorenz 96 Model

We construct different equivalent non-equilibrium statistical ensembles in a simple yet instructive $N$-degrees of freedom model of atmospheric turbulence, introduced by Lorenz in 1996. The vector field can be decomposed into an energy-conserving, time-reversible part, plus a non-time reversible part, including forcing and dissipation. We construct a modified version of the model where viscosity varies with time, in such a way that energy is conserved, and the resulting dynamics is fully time-reversible. For each value of the forcing, the statistical properties of the irreversible and reversible model are in excellent agreement, if in the latter the energy is kept constant at a value equal to the time-average realized with the irreversible model. In particular, the average contraction rate of the phase space of the time-reversible model agrees with that of the irreversible model, where instead it is constant by construction. We also show that the phase space contraction rate obeys the fluctuation relation, and we relate its finite time corrections to the characteristic time scales of the system. A local version of the fluctuation relation is explored and successfully checked. The equivalence between the two non-equilibrium ensembles extends to dynamical properties such as the Lyapunov exponents, which are shown to obey to a good degree of approximation a pairing rule. These results have relevance in motivating the importance of the chaotic hypothesis. in explaining that we have the freedom to model non-equilibrium systems using different but equivalent approaches, and, in particular, that using a model of a fluid where viscosity is kept constant is just one option, and not necessarily the only option, for describing accurately its statistical and dynamical properties.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2014

On using Extreme Values to detect global stability thresholds in multi-stable systems: The case of transitional plane Couette flow

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is exploited to determine the global stability threshold $R_g$ of plane Couette flow --the flow of a viscous fluid in the space between two parallel plates-- whose laminar or turbulent behavior depends on the Reynolds number R. Even if the existence of a global stability threshold has been detected in simulations and experiments, its numerical value has not been unequivocally defined. $R_g$ is the value such that for $R > R_g$ turbulence is sustained, whereas for $R < R_g$ it is transient and eventually decays. We address the problem of determining $R_g$ by using the extremes - maxima and minima - of the perturbation energy fluctuations. When $R_g$, both the positive and negative extremes are bounded. As the critical Reynolds number is approached from above, the probability of observing a very low minimum increases causing asymmetries in the distributions of maxima and minima. On the other hand, the maxima distribution is unaffected as the fluctuations towards higher values of the perturbation energy remain bounded. This tipping point can be detected by fitting the data to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and by identifying $R_g$ as the value of $R$ such that the shape parameter of the GEV for the minima changes sign from negative to positive. The results are supported by the analysis of theoretical models which feature a bistable behavior.

math.DS↗

arXiv2013

Hydrological Cycle over South and Southeast Asian River Basins as Simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 Experiments

We investigate how the climate models contributing to the PCMDI/CMIP3 dataset describe the hydrological cycle over four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the 20th, 21st (13 models) and 22nd (10 models) centuries. For the 20th century, some models do not seem to conserve water at the river basin scale up to a good degree of approximation. The simulated precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), total runoff (R) and precipitation (P) quantities are neither consistent with the observations nor among the models themselves. Most of the models underestimate P - E for all four river basins, which is mainly associated with the underestimation of precipitation. This is in agreement with the recent results on the biases of the representation of monsoonal dynamics by GCMs. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement is found only for the evaporation and inter-annual variability of P - E. For the 21st and 22nd centuries, models agree on the negative (positive) changes of P - E for the Indus basin (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins). Most of the models foresee an increase in the inter-annual variability of P - E for the Ganges and Mekong basins, thus suggesting an increase in large low-frequency dry/wet events. Instead, no considerable future change in the inter-annual variability of P - E is found for the Indus and Brahmaputra basins.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Elements of a unified framework for response formulae

We provide a physical interpretation of the first and second order terms occurring in Ruelle's response formalism. We show that entropy fluxes play a major role in determining the response of the system to perturbations. Along this line, we show that our framework allows one to recover a wealth of previous results of response theory in both deterministic and stochastic contexts. In particular, we are able to shed light on the crosslinks between the dynamical systems approach á la Ruelle and large deviations methods.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2013

Entropy Production and Coarse Graining of the Climate Fields in a General Circulation Model

We extend the analysis of the thermodynamics of the climate system by investigating the role played by processes taking place at various spatial and temporal scales through a procedure of coarse graining. The coarser is the graining of the climatic fields, the lower is the resulting estimate of the material entropy production. In other terms, all the spatial and temporal scales of variability of the thermodynamic fields provide a positive contribution to the material entropy production. At all scales, the temperature fields and the heating fields resulting from the convergence of turbulent fluxes have a negative correlation, while the opposite holds between the temperature fields and the radiative heating fields. Moreover, the latter correlations are stronger, which confirms that radiation acts as primary driver for the climatic processes, while the material fluxes dampen the resulting fluctuations through dissipative processes. Using specific coarse-graining procedures, one can separate the various contributions to the material entropy production coming from the dissipation of kinetic energy, the vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the large scale horizontal fluxes. Most of the entropy production is associated to irreversible exchanges occurring along the vertical direction, and neglecting the horizontal and time variability of the fields has a small impact on the estimate of the material entropy production. The approach presented here seems promising for testing climate models, for assessing the impact of changing their parametrizations and their resolution, and for investigating the atmosphere of exoplanets. Our findings deserve to be explored in a more general context, because they provide a way for understanding the relationship between forced fluctuations and dissipative processes in continuum systems.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2013

Towards a General Theory of Extremes for Observables of Chaotic Dynamical Systems

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the chosen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numerical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2013

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of circulation regimes in optically-thin, dry atmospheres

An extensive analysis of an optically-thin, dry atmosphere at different values of the thermal Rossby number Ro and of the Taylor number Ff is per- formed with a general circulation model by varying the rotation rate Ω and the surface drag τ in a wide parametric range. By using nonequilibrium thermodynamics diagnostics such as material entropy production, efficiency, meridional heat transport and kinetic energy dissipation we characterize in a new way the different circulation regimes. Baroclinic circulations feature high mechanical dissipation, meridional heat transport, material entropy pro- duction and are fairly efficient in converting heat into mechanical work. The thermal dissipation associated with the sensible heat flux is found to depend mainly on the surface properties, almost independent from the rotation rate and very low for quasi-barotropic circulations and regimes approaching equa- torial super-rotation. Slowly rotating, axisymmetric circulations have the highest meridional heat transport. At high rotation rates and intermediate- high drag, atmospheric circulations are zonostrohic with very low mechanical dissipation, meridional heat transport and efficiency. When τ is interpreted as a tunable parameter associated with the turbulent boundary layer trans- fer of momentum and sensible heat, our results confirm the possibility of using the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as a tuning guideline in the range of values of Ω. This study suggests the effectiveness of using fun- damental nonequilibrium thermodynamics for investigating the properties of planetary atmospheres and extends our knowledge of the thermodynamics of the atmospheric circulation regimes.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2013

Extreme value statistics for dynamical systems with noise

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former case, we will show that by perturbing rational or irrational rotations with additive noise, an extreme value law appears, regardless of the intensity of the noise, while unperturbed rotations do not admit such limiting distributions. In the case of deterministic chaotic dynamics, we will consider observables specially designed to study the recurrence properties in the neighbourhood of periodic points. Hence, the exponential limiting law for the distribution of maxima is modified by the presence of the extremal index, a positive parameter not larger than one, whose inverse gives the average size of the clusters of extreme events. The theory predicts that such a parameter is unitary when the system is perturbed randomly. We perform sophisticated numerical tests to assess how strong is the impact of noise level, when finite time series are considered. We find agreement with the asymptotic theoretical results but also non-trivial behaviour in the finite range. In particular our results suggest that in many applications where finite datasets can be produced or analysed one must be careful in assuming that the smoothing nature of noise prevails over the underlying deterministic dynamics.

math.DS↗

arXiv2013

Habitability and Multistability in Earth-like Planets

We explore the potential multistability of the climate for a planet around the habitable zone. We focus on conditions reminiscent to those of the Earth system, but our investigation aims at presenting a general methodology for dealing with exoplanets. We provide a thorough analysis of the non-equilibrium thermodynamical properties of the climate system and explore, using a a flexible climate model, how such properties depend on the energy input of the parent star, on the infrared atmospheric opacity, and on the rotation rate. It is possible to reproduce the multi-stability properties reminiscent of the paleoclimatologically relevant snowball (SB) - warm (W) conditions. We then study the thermodynamics of the W and SB states, clarifying the role of the hydrological cycle in shaping the irreversibility and the efficiency of the W states, and emphasizing the extreme diversity of the SB states, where dry conditions are realized. Thermodynamics provides the clue for studying the tipping points of the system and leads us to constructing parametrizations where the main thermodynamic properties are expressed as functions of the emission temperature of the planet only. Such functions are rather robust with respect to changing the rotation rate of the planet from the current terrestrial one to half of it. We then explore the dynamical range of slowy rotating and phase locked planets. There is a critical rotation rate below which the multi-stability properties are lost. Such critical rotation rate corresponds roughly to the phase lock 2:1 condition. Therefore, if an Earth-like planet is 1:1 phase locked with respect to the parent star, only one climatic state would be compatible with a given set of astronomical and astrophysical parameters. These results have relevance for the general theory of planetary circulation and for the definition of necessary and sufficient conditions for habitability.

astro-ph.EP↗