arXiv subjects

Van Dai Do

Publications and source records attributed to Van Dai Do.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Lotus: Learning to Understand Time-series by Learning to Forecast

Time-series language models typically align numerical signals with language using labels, captions, or question-answer pairs, without explicitly requiring their representations to preserve how the underlying signals evolve. We introduce forecast grounding, a pretraining principle that requires language-aligned time-series representations to remain predictive of the future evolution before they are adapted to downstream tasks. We instantiate this principle in Lotus, which divides each time-series channel into non-overlapping patches and maps them into the LLM embedding space. It then predicts the next patch from the LLM hidden states of the time-series tokens, encouraging the learned representation to retain temporal information. To capture both temporal changes and periodic patterns, we also propose a temporal-spectral patch representation that combines each raw time-series patch with its spectral representation before mapping it into the LLM embedding space. Across three language model backbones and six downstream evaluation datasets, Lotus achieves the best average performance with minimal trainable parameters, reaching 59.91% accuracy and outperforming the strongest matched baseline by 3.36%. Our representation analyses further show that Lotus uses the numerical input and preserves temporal structure in its learned patch representations. These results establish forecast grounding as a promising pretraining principle, enabling compact time-series language models to outperform models 25-50 times their size on TSRBench. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/DA2I2-SLM/Lotus

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

DREAM: Dynamic Resolution Assignment For Multimodal Multi-agent Debate

Multi-agent debate (MAD) has emerged as an effective paradigm to improve the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and is increasingly being extended to multimodal settings. However, existing multimodal MAD frameworks typically expose agents to the same fixed visual input, ignoring substantial variation in the visual scale needed across samples and agents. In addition, these frameworks frequently suffer from groupthink, a phenomenon where agents prematurely abandon correct deductions to conform with confident but hallucinated peer responses. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce DREAM (Dynamic Resolution Assignment For Multimodal Multi-Agent Debate), which operates via two core components: (1) Dynamic Resolution Assignment, a zero-shot probe round where agents test multiple resolutions, quantify uncertainty using Average Normalized Log-Likelihood (ANLL), and use an adaptive threshold to assign each agent to its empirically optimal resolution; (2) Uncertainty-Guided Rollback Aggregation counters groupthink by tracking each agent's uncertainty over rounds and restoring early low-uncertainty answers overridden by group pressure. On six multimodal datasets, DREAM improves the accuracy-token trade-off over multi-agent debate baselines by 1.5-3.2% accuracy without dataset-specific tuning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SteerCast: Retrieval-Based Latent Steering for Decoder-Only Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting aims to predict future values from historical observations and auxiliary features. We propose \textbf{SteerCast}, a retrieval-based latent steering method that improves decoder-only forecaster at inference time, without updating its parameters. SteerCast constructs a database from the training set by storing a representation of each history window together with a \emph{steering vector} computed in the forecaster's latent space, defined as the difference between representations induced by the ground-truth continuation and by the model's own prediction. At test time, SteerCast retrieves nearest neighbors for a query history, aggregates their steering vectors, and injects the resulting signal into the forecaster's hidden states at every step of autoregressive generation, guiding predictions toward trajectories consistent with similar training cases. Experiments across diverse multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons show that SteerCast consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the fine-tuned backbone and retrieval-based baselines, while requiring no additional training beyond the original fine-tuning and using only the training set as a retrieval corpus.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Volatility-Clustering Adaptation for Financial Time Series

Time-series foundation models are increasingly adapted to new domains through fine-tuning on target data, under the implicit assumption that more target data yields better forecasts. We show that this assumption can fail in financial forecasting, where individual price changes are difficult to predict, but large moves tend to cluster, creating alternating calm and turbulent periods. Using financial foundation models trained on price bars of open, high, low, close, and volume, we argue that adapting to financial domains requires training signals beyond next-token prediction. We introduce Volatility-Clustering Adaptation (VCA), which augments next-token cross-entropy with a differentiable penalty on the autocorrelation of squared returns, the standard statistical signature of volatility clustering. This additional objective provides a multi-step training signal by matching the resulting dependence structure of autoregressive rollouts to those of the realized future. Across three asset sets and two evaluation conventions, VCA improves adaptation over the pre-trained model, with the strongest gains under the primary evaluation (\textsc{fore}), driven primarily by reduced variance error. Overall, our results suggest that effective financial adaptation requires objectives that capture domain-specific temporal structure beyond token-level prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Memory in Deep Time-Series Models

Deep learning for time series has progressed through successive architectural paradigms, from recurrent networks and transformers to structured state-space models, retrieval-augmented predictors, foundation models, and tool-using agents. These developments are typically studied in isolation, organized by architecture or modeling era. We argue that they can instead be viewed through a common question of \emph{how does a time-series model retain and access information beyond its immediate input?} This question is motivated by a fundamental limitation of conventional time-series modeling: information relevant to a prediction may lie far beyond a feasible input window, while compressing history into a fixed-size state can discard information that may become useful later. We formulate this challenge as a \emph{memory} problem and organize existing time-series methods along a spectrum from internal memory, encoded in parameters and fixed-size states, to external memory that is addressable, retrievable, and increasingly maintained by agents. We then develop a unified taxonomy of memory mechanisms and review three classes of external memory, including explicit modules, retrieval augmentation, and agentic stores, under a common framework for what is retained, how it is written and accessed, and how it persists. A cross-cutting analysis maps these mechanisms to time-series tasks and identifies gaps in both methods and evaluation. We conclude by outlining open problems in building memory systems that can selectively retain, retrieve, revise, and forget information as temporal environments evolve. The result is a framework for studying memory as a first-class dimension of time series modeling, independent of the underlying backbone.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Creative Generation via Multi-Agent Debate: Does Debate Suppress Diversity?

Creative generation tasks, such as narrative writing and scientific ideation, demand both high-quality outputs and distinct responses across independent runs to maximize exploration. Multi-Agent Debate (MAD) has shown strong quality gains on factual and reasoning tasks, making it a natural candidate for creative generation. However, we find its convergence-driven design actively suppresses output diversity across independent runs, creating an inherent trade-off with creative tasks. We theoretically show that preserving diversity among agents within each debate session is a necessary condition for achieving diverse outputs across independent runs. Building on this finding, we propose Creative-MAD, which introduces two synergistic interventions to sustain agent divergence. Specifically, Cognitive Lens Assignment counters identity drift by anchoring each agent to a distinct and persistent cognitive mode, while Embedding-based Peer Selection counters majority pull by limiting each agent's context to its most semantically distant peers. Experiments across four creative benchmarks demonstrate that Creative-MAD significantly enhances both lexical and semantic diversity while maintaining MAD's output quality.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Accelerating Long-Term Molecular Dynamics with Physics-Informed Time-Series Forecasting

Efficient molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is vital for understanding atomic-scale processes in materials science and biophysics. Traditional density functional theory (DFT) methods are computationally expensive, which limits the feasibility of long-term simulations. We propose a novel approach that formulates MD simulation as a time-series forecasting problem, enabling advanced forecasting models to predict atomic trajectories via displacements rather than absolute positions. We incorporate a physics-informed loss and inference mechanism based on DFT-parametrised pair-wise Morse potential functions that penalize unphysical atomic proximity to enforce physical plausibility. Our method consistently surpasses standard baselines in simulation accuracy across diverse materials. The results highlight the importance of incorporating physics knowledge to enhance the reliability and precision of atomic trajectory forecasting. Remarkably, it enables stable modeling of thousands of MD steps in minutes, offering a scalable alternative to costly DFT simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CausalPlan: Empowering Efficient LLM Multi-Agent Collaboration Through Causality-Driven Planning

Large language model (LLM) agents-especially smaller, open-source models-often produce causally invalid or incoherent actions in collaborative tasks due to their reliance on surface-level correlations rather than grounded causal reasoning. This limitation undermines their performance in terms of coordination and planning in dynamic environments. We address this challenge with CausalPlan, a two-phase framework that integrates explicit structural causal reasoning into the LLM planning process. At the core of CausalPlan is the Structural Causal Action (SCA) model, which learns a causal graph from agent trajectories to capture how prior actions and current environment states influence future decisions. This structure is then used to guide action selection by assigning causal scores to LLM-generated proposals, reweighting them accordingly, or falling back to causally grounded alternatives when needed. By embedding this causal knowledge directly into the decision loop, CausalPlan constrains planning to intervention-consistent behaviours without requiring fine-tuning of the LLM itself. We evaluate CausalPlan on the Overcooked-AI benchmark across five multi-agent coordination tasks and four LLMs of varying sizes: Gemma-7B, Llama-8B, Qwen-14B, and Llama-70B. Experimental results show that CausalPlan consistently reduces invalid actions and improves collaboration in both AI-AI and human-AI settings, outperforming strong reinforcement learning baselines. Our findings highlight the value of causality-driven planning for deploying efficient, interpretable, and generalisable multi-agent LLM systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

An Analysis of Uplink Success Probability in Multi-Cell Lora Networks Under Different Channel Models

The development of the low power wide area network (LPWAN) for the internet of things (IoTs) is expected to grow widely, allowing remote monitoring of smart devices from a distance of up to several kilometers. This paper studies the performance and success probability of multi-cell LoRa networks. Using tools of stochastic geometry, the paper analyzes the important metric namely success probability in both Rayleigh and Rician channel models. The obtained analysis helps investigate and evaluate other quality criteria in the multi-cell LoRa network such as throughput, SNR and SIR requirements. Moreover, we provide numerical simulation results to corroborate the theoretical analysis and to verify how our analysis can characterize the given reliability target.

cs.IT↗