arXiv subjects

Vansh Bansal

Publications and source records attributed to Vansh Bansal.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Understanding Parallel Samplers in Masked Diffusion via Random Walks on Graphs

In this paper, we propose using random walks on graphs as a verifiable sandbox to study different parallel sampling strategies in masked diffusion models (MDMs). We train an MDM on random walk samples from a fixed graph. The graph or the transition kernel is never shown to the model explicitly and plays the role of latent structure in the sequences, albeit one that is controllable and can be used for quantitative evaluation. Thus, this framework enjoys a Sudoku-like validity check: verifying that an output is a valid walk and estimating the Markov kernel from the walks to measure distribution fidelity. Using simple graphs, we theoretically prove that parallel unmasking via widely used scores like lowest entropy is not uniformly better than a random parallel sampler; the performance critically depends on the structure of the underlying graph. We develop a new bisection sampler for random walks, which takes logarithmic steps in the sequence length and is provably exact under perfect training. Experiments on various graph walk tasks show that different parallel samplers are better for different graphs even in practice. Our initial experiments on a pretrained OpenWebText MDM show that the bisection-style samplers improve speed-quality tradeoffs even for language generation. Together, these results position graph random walks as a mechanistic benchmark for diagnosing and designing parallel samplers for masked diffusion models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Delta-Based Target Reformulation for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using LSTM and Transformer Models

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is critical for the reliable and economic operation of modern power systems, under non-stationarity arising from weather variability, calendar effects, and evolving consumption patterns. While deep learning models such as LSTMs and Transformers show promising performance, most existing studies focus on direct absolute load prediction without explicitly addressing target non-stationarity. Motivated by classical time-series differencing techniques in ARIMA models, this paper investigates a delta-based target reformulation for short-term electricity load forecasting using deep learning. Instead of directly predicting absolute load values, the proposed formulation trains models to predict the change in load between consecutive time steps, with final forecasts reconstructed using the last observed load. This aims to stabilize the learning target and reduce forecasting difficulty. Using multi-year, hourly real-world electricity load data from India, augmented with meteorological variables from the NASA POWER project and calendar features, this study evaluates LSTM and Transformer models under both formulations, benchmarking them against LightGBM. Experiments are conducted for hour-ahead and day-ahead horizons, assessing performance via Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that delta-based reformulation consistently improves forecasting accuracy for hour-ahead prediction across all evaluated models, yielding MAPE reductions of over 50% compared to absolute formulations. For day-ahead forecasting, delta targets specifically benefit deep sequence models (LSTM and Transformer), while LightGBM remains competitive under the absolute formulation. These findings indicate that while delta reformulation is a powerful inductive bias for neural networks, its efficacy is model- and horizon-dependent.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Convergence and Straightness of Rectified Flow

Flow Matching has become a cornerstone of modern generative models like Stable Diffusion 3, largely due to the efficiency of its Rectified Flow (RF) variant. The success of RF hinges on iteratively learning straight trajectories, pushing generation towards fewer sampling steps. However, the theoretical link between path geometry and sampling efficiency has been underexplored. This paper fills this gap by introducing a novel \textit{Piecewise Straightness} parameter, $γ_{2,T}$. We establish the first Wasserstein convergence bound that explicitly links the discretization error of \textit{any} general flow-model to $γ_{2,T}$, proving that minimizing curvature is the key to achieving high-fidelity, one-step sampling. Building on this theory, we establish the first theoretical framework to analyze the straightness of RF. We begin by offering intuitive geometric arguments for simple cases before identifying sufficient conditions under which a single rectification step (1-RF) yields a perfectly straight or even a Monge optimal coupling. While whether these sufficient conditions are met depends on the problem geometry, they enable the first concrete proofs in this area. Critically, fulfilling these conditions makes the subsequent flow (2-RF) perfectly straight ($γ_{2,T}=0$). This eliminates the discretization error in our bound and makes flawless, single-step sampling possible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Conformal C2ST: Turning weak classifiers into strong two-sample tests

The two-sample testing problem, a fundamental task in statistics and machine learning, seeks to determine whether two sets of samples, drawn from underlying distributions $p$ and $q$, are in fact identically distributed (i.e. whether $p=q$). A popular and intuitive approach is the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), where a classifier is trained to distinguish between samples from $p$ and $q$. Yet despite simplicity of the C2ST, its reliability hinges on access to a near-Bayes-optimal classifier, a requirement that is rarely met and difficult to verify. This raises a major open question: can a weak classifier still be useful for two-sample testing? We show that the answer is a definitive yes. Building on the work of Hu and Lei (2024), we analyze two conformal variants of the C2ST that convert the scores from any trained classifier -- even if weak, biased, or overfit -- into exact, finite-sample p-values. We establish two key theoretical properties of the conformal C2ST: (i) finite-sample Type-I error control, and (ii) non-trivial power that degrades gently in tandem with the error of the trained classifier. The upshot is that even poorly performing classifiers can yield powerful and reliable two-sample tests. This general framework finds a powerful application in Bayesian inference, particularly for validating Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) models, where the task of comparing a learned posterior approximation $q(θ\mid y)$ to the true posterior $p(θ\mid y)$ can be framed as a two-sample test. Empirically, the Conformal C2ST outperforms classical discriminative tests across a wide range of benchmarks for this task. Our results establish the conformal C2ST as a practical, theoretically grounded diagnostic tool.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Score-Guided Proximal Projection: A Unified Geometric Framework for Rectified Flow Editing

Rectified Flow (RF) models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality, yet controlling them for precise tasks -- such as semantic editing or blind image recovery -- remains a challenge. Current approaches bifurcate into inversion-based guidance, which suffers from "geometric locking" by rigidly adhering to the source trajectory, and posterior sampling approximations (e.g., DPS), which are computationally expensive and unstable. In this work, we propose Score-Guided Proximal Projection (SGPP), a unified framework that bridges the gap between deterministic optimization and stochastic sampling. We reformulate the recovery task as a proximal optimization problem, defining an energy landscape that balances fidelity to the input with realism from the pre-trained score field. We theoretically prove that this objective induces a normal contraction property, geometrically guaranteeing that out-of-distribution inputs are snapped onto the data manifold, and it effectively reaches the posterior mode constrained to the manifold. Crucially, we demonstrate that SGPP generalizes state-of-the-art editing methods: RF-inversion is effectively a limiting case of our framework. By relaxing the proximal variance, SGPP enables "soft guidance," offering a continuous, training-free trade-off between strict identity preservation and generative freedom.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CoLT: The conditional localization test for assessing the accuracy of neural posterior estimates

We consider the problem of validating whether a neural posterior estimate $ q(θ\mid x) $ is an accurate approximation to the true, unknown true posterior $ p(θ\mid x) $. Existing methods for evaluating the quality of an NPE estimate are largely derived from classifier-based tests or divergence measures, but these suffer from several practical drawbacks. As an alternative, we introduce the \emph{Conditional Localization Test} (CoLT), a principled method designed to detect discrepancies between $ p(θ\mid x) $ and $ q(θ\mid x) $ across the full range of conditioning inputs. Rather than relying on exhaustive comparisons or density estimation at every $ x $, CoLT learns a localization function that adaptively selects points $θ_l(x)$ where the neural posterior $q$ deviates most strongly from the true posterior $p$ for that $x$. This approach is particularly advantageous in typical simulation-based inference settings, where only a single draw $ θ\sim p(θ\mid x) $ from the true posterior is observed for each conditioning input, but where the neural posterior $ q(θ\mid x) $ can be sampled an arbitrary number of times. Our theoretical results establish necessary and sufficient conditions for assessing distributional equality across all $ x $, offering both rigorous guarantees and practical scalability. Empirically, we demonstrate that CoLT not only performs better than existing methods at comparing $p$ and $q$, but also pinpoints regions of significant divergence, providing actionable insights for model refinement. These properties position CoLT as a state-of-the-art solution for validating neural posterior estimates.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conditional diffusions for amortized neural posterior estimation

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a simulation-based computational approach for Bayesian inference, has shown great success in approximating complex posterior distributions. Existing NPE methods typically rely on normalizing flows, which approximate a distribution by composing many simple, invertible transformations. But flow-based models, while state of the art for NPE, are known to suffer from several limitations, including training instability and sharp trade-offs between representational power and computational cost. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of conditional diffusions coupled with high-capacity summary networks for amortized NPE. Conditional diffusions address many of the challenges faced by flow-based methods. Our results show that, across a highly varied suite of benchmarking problems for NPE architectures, diffusions offer improved stability, superior accuracy, and faster training times, even with simpler, shallower models. Building on prior work on diffusions for NPE, we show that these gains persist across a variety of different summary network architectures. Code is available at https://github.com/TianyuCodings/cDiff.

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