arXiv subjects

Veit Hagenmeyer

Publications and source records attributed to Veit Hagenmeyer.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

AutoPV: Automated photovoltaic forecasts with limited information using an ensemble of pre-trained models

Accurate PhotoVoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is vital for the efficient operation of Smart Grids. The automated design of such accurate forecasting models for individual PV plants includes two challenges: First, information about the PV mounting configuration (i.e. inclination and azimuth angles) is often missing. Second, for new PV plants, the amount of historical data available to train a forecasting model is limited (cold-start problem). We address these two challenges by proposing a new method for day-ahead PV power generation forecasts called AutoPV. AutoPV is a weighted ensemble of forecasting models that represent different PV mounting configurations. This representation is achieved by pre-training each forecasting model on a separate PV plant and by scaling the model's output with the peak power rating of the corresponding PV plant. To tackle the cold-start problem, we initially weight each forecasting model in the ensemble equally. To tackle the problem of missing information about the PV mounting configuration, we use new data that become available during operation to adapt the ensemble weights to minimize the forecasting error. AutoPV is advantageous as the unknown PV mounting configuration is implicitly reflected in the ensemble weights, and only the PV plant's peak power rating is required to re-scale the ensemble's output. AutoPV also allows to represent PV plants with panels distributed on different roofs with varying alignments, as these mounting configurations can be reflected proportionally in the weighting. Additionally, the required computing memory is decoupled when scaling AutoPV to hundreds of PV plants, which is beneficial in Smart Grids with limited computing capabilities. For a real-world data set with 11 PV plants, the accuracy of AutoPV is comparable to a model trained on two years of data and outperforms an incrementally trained model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Analytical Uncertainty Propagation for Multi-Period Stochastic Optimal Power Flow

The increase in renewable energy sources (RESs), like wind or solar power, results in growinguncertainty also in transmission grids. This affects grid stability through fluctuating energy supplyand an increased probability of overloaded lines. One key strategy to cope with this uncertainty isthe use of distributed energy storage systems (ESSs). In order to securely operate power systemscontaining renewables and use storage, optimization models are needed that both handle uncertaintyand apply ESSs. This paper introduces a compact dynamic stochastic chance-constrained DC optimalpower flow (CC-OPF) model, that minimizes generation costs and includes distributed ESSs. AssumingGaussian uncertainty, we use affine policies to obtain a tractable, analytically exact reformulation asa second-order cone problem (SOCP). We test the new model on five different IEEE networks withvarying sizes of 5, 39, 57, 118 and 300 nodes and include complexity analysis. The results showthat the model is computationally efficient and robust with respect to constraint violation risk. Thedistributed energy storage system leads to more stable operation with flattened generation profiles.Storage absorbed RES uncertainty, and reduced generation cost.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Microscopic fluctuations in power-grid frequency recordings at the sub-second scale

Complex systems, such as the power grid, are essential for our daily lives. Many complex systems display (multi-)fractal behavior, correlated fluctuations and power laws. Whether the power-grid frequency, an indicator about the balance on supply and demand in the electricity grid, also displays such complexity remains a mostly open question. Within the present article, we utilize highly resolved measurements to quantify the properties of the power-grid frequency. We show that below 1 second, the dynamics may fundamentally change, including a suddenly increasing power spectral density, emergence of multifractality and a change of correlation behavior. We provide a simplified stochastic model involving positively correlated noise to reproduce the observed dynamics, possibly linked to frequency dependent loads. Finally, we stress the need for high-quality measurements and discuss how we obtained the data analyzed here.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Evaluating Ensemble Post-Processing for Wind Power Forecasts

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather system, they can be used to propagate this uncertainty through to subsequent wind power forecasting models. However, as weather ensemble systems are known to be biased and underdispersed, meteorologists post-process the ensembles. This post-processing can successfully correct the biases in the weather variables but has not been evaluated thoroughly in the context of subsequent forecasts, such as wind power generation forecasts. The present paper evaluates multiple strategies for applying ensemble post-processing to probabilistic wind power forecasts. We use Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) as the post-processing method and evaluate four possible strategies: only using the raw ensembles without post-processing, a one-step strategy where only the weather ensembles are post-processed, a one-step strategy where we only post-process the power ensembles, and a two-step strategy where we post-process both the weather and power ensembles. Results show that post-processing the final wind power ensemble improves forecast performance regarding both calibration and sharpness, whilst only post-processing the weather ensembles does not necessarily lead to increased forecast performance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Analytical Uncertainty Propagation for Multi-Period Stochastic Optimal Power Flow

The increase in renewable energy sources (RESs), like wind or solar power, results in growing uncertainty also in transmission grids. This affects grid stability through fluctuating energy supply and an increased probability of overloaded lines. One key strategy to cope with this uncertainty is the use of distributed energy storage systems (ESSs). In order to securely operate power systems containing renewables and use storage, optimization models are needed that both handle uncertainty and apply ESSs. This paper introduces a compact dynamic stochastic chance-constrained optimal power flow (CC-OPF) model, that minimizes generation costs and includes distributed ESSs. Assuming Gaussian uncertainty, we use affine policies to obtain a tractable, analytically exact reformulation as a second-order cone problem (SOCP). We test the new model on five different IEEE networks with varying sizes of 5, 39, 57, 118 and 300 nodes and include complexity analysis. The results show that the model is computationally efficient and robust with respect to constraint violation risk. The distributed energy storage system leads to more stable operation with flattened generation profiles. Storage absorbed RES uncertainty, and reduced generation cost.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Rapid Scalable Distributed Power Flow with Open-Source Implementation

This paper introduces a new method for solving the distributed AC power flow (PF) problem by further exploiting the problem formulation. We propose a new variant of the ALADIN algorithm devised specifically for this type of problem. This new variant is characterized by using a reduced modelling method of the distributed AC PF problem, which is reformulated as a zero-residual least-squares problem with consensus constraints. This PF is then solved by a Gauss-Newton based inexact ALADIN algorithm presented in the paper. An open-source implementation of this algorithm, called rapidPF+, is provided. Simulation results, for which the power system's dimension varies from 53 to 10224 buses, show great potential of this combination in the aspects of both the computing.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Distributed Optimal Power Flow for VSC-MTDC Meshed AC/DC Grids Using ALADIN

The increasing application of voltage source converter (VSC) high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) technology in power grids has raised the importance of incorporating DC grids and converters into the existing transmission network. This poses significant challenges in dealing with the resulting optimal power flow (OPF) problem. In this paper, a recently proposed nonconvex distributed optimization algorithm -- Augmented Lagrangian based Alternating Direction Inexact Newton method (ALADIN), is tailored to solve the nonconvex AC/DC OPF problem for emerging voltage source converter (VSC) based multiterminal high voltage direct current (VSC-MTDC) meshed AC/DC hybrid systems. The proposed scheme decomposes this AC/DC hybrid OPF problem and handles it in a fully distributed way. Compared to the existing state-of-art Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers(ADMM), which is in general, not applicable for nonconvex problems, ALADIN has a theoretical convergence guarantee. Applying these two approaches to (VSC-MTDC) coupled with an IEEE benchmark AC power system illustrates that the tailored ALADIN outperforms ADMM in convergence speed and numerical robustness.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Automated generation of large-scale distribution grid models based on open data and open source software using an optimization approach

The increasing share of renewable energy sources on distribution grid level as well as the emerging active role of prosumers lead to both higher distribution grid utilization, and at the same time greater unpredictability of energy generation and consumption. This poses major problems for grid operators in view of, e.g., voltage stability and line (over)loading. Thus, detailed and comprehensive simulation models are essential for planning future distribution grid expansion in view of the expected strong electrification of society. In this context, the contribution of the present paper is a new, more refined method for automated creation of large-scale detailed distribution grid models based solely on publicly available GIS and statistical data. Utilizing the street layouts in Open Street Maps as potential cable routes, a graph representation is created and complemented by residential units that are extracted from the same data source. This graph structure is adjusted to match electrical low-voltage grid topology by solving a variation of the minimum cost flow linear optimization problem with provided data on secondary substations. In a final step, the generated grid representation is transferred to a DIgSILENT PowerFactory model with photovoltaic systems. The presented workflow uses open source software and is fully automated and scalable that allows the generation of ready-to-use distribution grid simulation models for given 20kV substation locations and additional data on residential unit properties for improved results. The performance of the developed method with respect to grid utilization is presented for a selected suburban residential area with power flow simulations for eight scenarios including current residential PV installation and a future scenario with full PV expansion. Furthermore, the suitability of the generated models for quasi-dynamic simulations is shown.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines

Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes the five sections (1) data pre-processing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever-growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The present paper, thus, analyzes the existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines to investigate how to automate the design process of forecasting models. Thereby, we consider both Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we firstly present and compare the proposed automation methods for each pipeline section. Secondly, we analyze the automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the literature, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of papers only cover two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large-scale application of time series forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Smart Data Representations: Impact on the Accuracy of Deep Neural Networks

Deep Neural Networks are able to solve many complex tasks with less engineering effort and better performance. However, these networks often use data for training and evaluation without investigating its representation, i.e.~the form of the used data. In the present paper, we analyze the impact of data representations on the performance of Deep Neural Networks using energy time series forecasting. Based on an overview of exemplary data representations, we select four exemplary data representations and evaluate them using two different Deep Neural Network architectures and three forecasting horizons on real-world energy time series. The results show that, depending on the forecast horizon, the same data representations can have a positive or negative impact on the accuracy of Deep Neural Networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Concepts for Automated Machine Learning in Smart Grid Applications

Undoubtedly, the increase of available data and competitive machine learning algorithms has boosted the popularity of data-driven modeling in energy systems. Applications are forecasts for renewable energy generation and energy consumption. Forecasts are elementary for sector coupling, where energy-consuming sectors are interconnected with the power-generating sector to address electricity storage challenges by adding flexibility to the power system. However, the large-scale application of machine learning methods in energy systems is impaired by the need for expert knowledge, which covers machine learning expertise and a profound understanding of the application's process. The process knowledge is required for the problem formalization, as well as the model validation and application. The machine learning skills include the processing steps of i) data pre-processing, ii) feature engineering, extraction, and selection, iii) algorithm selection, iv) hyperparameter optimization, and possibly v) post-processing of the model's output. Tailoring a model for a particular application requires selecting the data, designing various candidate models and organizing the data flow between the processing steps, selecting the most suitable model, and monitoring the model during operation - an iterative and time-consuming procedure. Automated design and operation of machine learning aim to reduce the human effort to address the increasing demand for data-driven models. We define five levels of automation for forecasting in alignment with the SAE standard for autonomous vehicles, where manual design and application reflect Automation level 0.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

pyWATTS: Python Workflow Automation Tool for Time Series

Time series data are fundamental for a variety of applications, ranging from financial markets to energy systems. Due to their importance, the number and complexity of tools and methods used for time series analysis is constantly increasing. However, due to unclear APIs and a lack of documentation, researchers struggle to integrate them into their research projects and replicate results. Additionally, in time series analysis there exist many repetitive tasks, which are often re-implemented for each project, unnecessarily costing time. To solve these problems we present \texttt{pyWATTS}, an open-source Python-based package that is a non-sequential workflow automation tool for the analysis of time series data. pyWATTS includes modules with clearly defined interfaces to enable seamless integration of new or existing methods, subpipelining to easily reproduce repetitive tasks, load and save functionality to simply replicate results, and native support for key Python machine learning libraries such as scikit-learn, PyTorch, and Keras.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Database of Power Grid Frequency Measurements

The transformation of the electrical energy system attracts much attention in diverse research communities. Novel approaches for modeling, control, and power grid architectures are widely proposed. Data from actual power system operation are therefore critical to evaluate models and to analyze real-world scenarios. However, they are rarely available. In the present paper, we introduce a precisely time-stamped data set of power grid frequency measurements. It covers twelve synchronous areas of different sizes in one-second resolution. The contribution includes synchronized measurements within the Continental European synchronous area acquired in Portugal, Germany, and Turkey, maximizing the geographical span. Finally, we provide excerpts of the underlying waveform. Data were collected using a self-developed measurement instrument, the Electrical Data Recorder (EDR), connected mostly to conventional power sockets. We close our description with a discussion on measurement error and data quality.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Mitigating heat demand peaks in buildings in a highly renewable European energy system

Space and water heating accounts for about 40% of final energy consumption in the European Union and thus plays a key role in reducing overall costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Many scenarios to reach net-zero emissions in buildings rely on electrification, but meeting the heat demand peaks in the winter can be challenging, particularly when wind and solar resources are low. This paper examines how to mitigate space heating demand peaks most cost-effectively in a top-down, sector-coupled model with carbon dioxide emissions constraint to be net-zero. It introduces the first model that co-optimises both supply and efficiency simultaneously including all European countries with hourly resolution. The competition between technologies to address these heating peaks, namely building retrofitting, thermal energy storage and individual hybrid heat pumps with backup gas boilers is examined. A novel thought experiment demonstrates that the level of building renovation is driven by the strong seasonal heat peaks, rather than the overall energy consumption. If all three instruments are applied, total costs are reduced by up to 17%. Building renovation enables the largest benefit with cost savings of up to 14% and allows individual gas boilers to be removed from the energy system without significant higher costs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Integrating Battery Aging in the Optimization for Bidirectional Charging of Electric Vehicles

Smart charging of Electric Vehicles (EVs) reduces operating costs, allows more sustainable battery usage, and promotes the rise of electric mobility. In addition, bidirectional charging and improved connectivity enables efficient power grid support. Today, however, uncoordinated charging, e.g. governed by users' habits, is still the norm. Thus, the impact of upcoming smart charging applications is mostly unexplored. We aim to estimate the expenses inherent with smart charging, e.g. battery aging costs, and give suggestions for further research. Using typical on-board sensor data we concisely model and validate an EV battery. We then integrate the battery model into a realistic smart charging use case and compare it with measurements of real EV charging. The results show that i) the temperature dependence of battery aging requires precise thermal models for charging power greater than 7 kW, ii) disregarding battery aging underestimates EVs' operating costs by approx. 30%, and iii) the profitability of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) services based on bidirectional power flow, e.g. energy arbitrage, depends on battery aging costs and the electricity price spread.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Data-Driven Copy-Paste Imputation for Energy Time Series

A cornerstone of the worldwide transition to smart grids are smart meters. Smart meters typically collect and provide energy time series that are vital for various applications, such as grid simulations, fault-detection, load forecasting, load analysis, and load management. Unfortunately, these time series are often characterized by missing values that must be handled before the data can be used. A common approach to handle missing values in time series is imputation. However, existing imputation methods are designed for power time series and do not take into account the total energy of gaps, resulting in jumps or constant shifts when imputing energy time series. In order to overcome these issues, the present paper introduces the new Copy-Paste Imputation (CPI) method for energy time series. The CPI method copies data blocks with similar properties and pastes them into gaps of the time series while preserving the total energy of each gap. The new method is evaluated on a real-world dataset that contains six shares of artificially inserted missing values between 1 and 30%. It outperforms by far the three benchmark imputation methods selected for comparison. The comparison furthermore shows that the CPI method uses matching patterns and preserves the total energy of each gap while requiring only a moderate run-time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Distributed Power Flow and Distributed Optimization -- Formulation, Solution, and Open Source Implementation

Solving the power flow problem in a distributed fashion empowers different grid operators to compute the overall grid state without having to share grid models-this is a practical problem to which industry does not have off-the-shelf answers. In cooperation with a German transmission system operator we propose two physically consistent problem formulations (feasibility, least-squares) amenable to two solution methods from distributed optimization (the Alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), and the Augmented Lagrangian based Alternating Direction Inexact Newton method (Aladin)); with Aladin there come convergence guarantees for the distributed power flow problem. In addition, we provide open source matlab code for rapid prototyping for distributed power flow (rapidPF), a fully matpower-compatible software that facilitates the laborious task of formulating power flow problems as distributed optimization problems; the code is available under https://github.com/KIT-IAI/rapidPF/. The approach to solving distributed power flow problems that we present is flexible, modular, consistent, and reproducible. Simulation results for systems ranging from 53 buses (with 3 regions) up to 4662 buses (with 5 regions) show that the least-squares formulation solved with aladin requires just about half a dozen coordinating steps before the power flow problem is solved.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

A novel receiver design for energy packet-based dispatching

A steadily growing share of renewable energies with uctuating and decentralized generation as well as rising peak loads require novel solutions to ensure the reliability of electricity supply. More speci cally, grid stability is endangered by equally relevant line constraints and battery capacity limits. In this light, energy packet-based dispatching with power signal dual modulation has recently been introduced as an innovative solution. However, this approach assumes a central synchronicity provision unit for energy packet dispatching. In order to overcome this assumption, the present paper's main contribution is a design of an energy packet receiver which recovers the required synchronicity information directly from the received signal itself. Key implementation aspects are discussed in detail. By means of a DC grid example, simulation results show the performance and applicability of the proposed novel receiver for packet-based energy dispatching.

eess.SP↗