A Bayesian Edge-Space Framework for Whole-Connectome Inference in Multisite Autism Neuroimaging
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with heterogeneous alterations across distributed brain systems, creating challenges for whole-connectome inference. The difficulty arises not only from the large number of connections, but also from dependence among effects indexed by anatomically and functionally related region pairs. We introduce a Bayesian Edge-Space regression framework that treats each participant's connectome as a network-valued response and models the adjusted ASD effect over unordered brain-region pairs. The main methodological contribution is a positive-semidefinite covariance construction defined directly on connections. Anatomical and diagnosis-blind functional similarities are lifted from regions to edge space through a symmetrized endpoint-matching operation that preserves endpoint identity and is invariant to endpoint ordering. An additive Bayesian hierarchy estimates anatomical, functional, and interaction contributions together with multisite adjustments and connection-specific effects. Theoretical results establish covariance validity and continuous nesting of the structured components. Low-rank kernel representations and an exact sufficient-statistic reduction enable whole-connectome computation without preliminary edgewise estimation. Simulations show improved recovery of the effect surface, particularly under weak signals. In the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange, the framework identifies widespread reductions together with localized increases in ASD-associated connectivity. This pattern supports heterogeneous reorganization across distributed neural systems rather than uniform hyper- or hypoconnectivity. Under the fitted parameterization, the functional component has the largest structural scale, indicating organization beyond anatomical proximity alone.