arXiv subjects

Veronica J. Berrocal

Publications and source records attributed to Veronica J. Berrocal.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Accounting for survey design in Bayesian disaggregation of survey-based areal estimates of proportions: an application to the American Community Survey

Understanding the effects of social determinants of health on health outcomes requires data on characteristics of the neighborhoods in which subjects live. However, estimates of these characteristics are often aggregated over space and time in a fashion that diminishes their utility. Take, for example, estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS), a multi-year nationwide survey administered by the U.S. Census Bureau: estimates for small municipal areas are aggregated over 5-year periods, whereas 1-year estimates are only available for municipal areas with populations $>$65,000. Researchers may wish to use ACS estimates in studies of population health to characterize neighborhood-level exposures. However, 5-year estimates may not properly characterize temporal changes or align temporally with other data in the study, while the coarse spatial resolution of the 1-year estimates diminishes their utility in characterizing neighborhood exposure. To circumvent this issue, in this paper we propose a modeling framework to disaggregate estimates of proportions derived from sampling surveys which explicitly accounts for the survey design effect. We illustrate the utility of our model by applying it to the ACS data, generating estimates of poverty for the state of Michigan at fine spatio-temporal resolution.

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arXiv2021

Identifying regions of inhomogeneities in spatial processes via an M-RA and mixture priors

Soils have been heralded as a hidden resource that can be leveraged to mitigate and address some of the major global environmental challenges. Specifically, the organic carbon stored in soils, called Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), can, through proper soil management, help offset fuel emissions, increase food productivity, and improve water quality. As collecting data on SOC is costly and time consuming, not much data on SOC is available, although understanding the spatial variability in SOC is of fundamental importance for effective soil management. In this manuscript, we propose a modeling framework that can be used to gain a better understanding of the dependence structure of a spatial process by identifying regions within a spatial domain where the process displays the same spatial correlation range. To achieve this goal, we propose a generalization of the Multi-Resolution Approximation (M-RA) modeling framework of Katzfuss (2017) originally introduced as a strategy to reduce the computational burden encountered when analyzing massive spatial datasets. To allow for the possibility that the correlation of a spatial process might be characterized by a different range in different subregions of a spatial domain, we provide the M-RA basis functions weights with a two-component mixture prior with one of the mixture components a shrinking prior. We call our approach the mixture M-RA. Application of the mixture M-RA model to both stationary and non-stationary data shows that the mixture M-RA model can handle both types of data, can correctly establish the type of spatial dependence structure in the data (e.g. stationary vs not), and can identify regions of local stationarity.

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arXiv2019

A comparison of statistical and machine learning methods for creating national daily maps of ambient PM$_{2.5}$ concentration

A typical problem in air pollution epidemiology is exposure assessment for individuals for which health data are available. Due to the sparsity of monitoring sites and the limited temporal frequency with which measurements of air pollutants concentrations are collected (for most pollutants, once every 3 or 6 days), epidemiologists have been moving away from characterizing ambient air pollution exposure solely using measurements. In the last few years, substantial research efforts have been placed in developing statistical methods or machine learning techniques to generate estimates of air pollution at finer spatial and temporal scales (daily, usually) with complete coverage. Some of these methods include: geostatistical techniques, such as kriging; spatial statistical models that use the information contained in air quality model outputs (statistical downscaling models); linear regression modeling approaches that leverage the information in GIS covariates (land use regression); or machine learning methods that mine the information contained in relevant variables (neural network and deep learning approaches). Although some of these exposure modeling approaches have been used in several air pollution epidemiological studies, it is not clear how much the predicted exposures generated by these methods differ, and which method generates more reliable estimates. In this paper, we aim to address this gap by evaluating a variety of exposure modeling approaches, comparing their predictive performance and computational difficulty. Using PM$_{2.5}$ in year 2011 over the continental U.S. as case study, we examine the methods' performances across seasons, rural vs urban settings, and levels of PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations (low, medium, high).

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arXiv2018

Nonstationary Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon: Implications for Stock Assessment Decision Making

The Rapid Carbon Assessment (RaCA) project was conducted by the US Department of Agriculture's National Resources Conservation Service between 2010-2012 in order to provide contemporaneous measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) across the US. Despite the broad extent of the RaCA data collection effort, direct observations of SOC are not available at the high spatial resolution needed for studying carbon storage in soil and its implications for important problems in climate science and agriculture. As a result, there is a need for predicting SOC at spatial locations not included as part of the RaCA project. In this paper, we compare spatial prediction of SOC using a subset of the RaCA data for a variety of statistical methods. We investigate the performance of methods with off-the-shelf software available (both stationary and nonstationary) as well as a novel nonstationary approach based on partitioning relevant spatially-varying covariate processes. Our new method addresses open questions regarding (1) how to partition the spatial domain for segmentation-based nonstationary methods, (2) incorporating partially observed covariates into a spatial model, and (3) accounting for uncertainty in the partitioning. In applying the various statistical methods we find that there are minimal differences in out-of-sample criteria for this particular data set, however, there are major differences in maps of uncertainty in SOC predictions. We argue that the spatially-varying measures of prediction uncertainty produced by our new approach are valuable to decision makers, as they can be used to better benchmark mechanistic models, identify target areas for soil restoration projects, and inform carbon sequestration projects.

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arXiv2010

A bivariate space-time downscaler under space and time misalignment

Ozone and particulate matter PM2.5 are co-pollutants that have long been associated with increased public health risks. Information on concentration levels for both pollutants come from two sources: monitoring sites and output from complex numerical models that produce concentration surfaces over large spatial regions. In this paper, we offer a fully-model based approach for fusing these two sources of information for the pair of co-pollutants which is computationally feasible over large spatial regions and long periods of time. Due to the association between concentration levels of the two environmental contaminants, it is expected that information regarding one will help to improve prediction of the other. Misalignment is an obvious issue since the monitoring networks for the two contaminants only partly intersect and because the collection rate for PM2.5 is typically less frequent than that for ozone. Extending previous work in Berrocal et al. (2010), we introduce a bivariate downscaler that provides a flexible class of bivariate space-time assimilation models. We discuss computational issues for model fitting and analyze a dataset for ozone and PM2.5 for the ozone season during year 2002. We show a modest improvement in predictive performance, not surprising in a setting where we can anticipate only a small gain.

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arXiv2009

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation field forecasting using a two-stage spatial model

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are needed in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty information. Here we present a postprocessing technique for such numerical forecasts that produces correlated probabilistic forecasts of precipitation accumulation at multiple sites simultaneously. The statistical model is a spatial version of a two-stage model that represents the distribution of precipitation by a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Gamma density for the continuous distribution of precipitation accumulation. Spatial correlation is captured by assuming that two Gaussian processes drive precipitation occurrence and precipitation amount, respectively. The first process is latent and drives precipitation occurrence via a threshold. The second process explains the spatial correlation in precipitation accumulation. It is related to precipitation via a site-specific transformation function, so as to retain the marginal right-skewed distribution of precipitation while modeling spatial dependence. Both processes take into account the information contained in the numerical weather forecast and are modeled as stationary isotropic spatial processes with an exponential correlation function. The two-stage spatial model was applied to 48-hour-ahead forecasts of daily precipitation accumulation over the Pacific Northwest in 2004. The predictive distributions from the two-stage spatial model were calibrated and sharp, and outperformed reference forecasts for spatially composite and areally averaged quantities.

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