arXiv subjects

Viacheslav M. Sadykov

Publications and source records attributed to Viacheslav M. Sadykov.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improving Solar Flare Soft X-ray Classification With FOXES: A Framework For Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) solar soft X-ray (SXR) irradiance in the 1-8Å wavelength range is a long-standing measure of solar activity, used to define the classification of flare strengths. As a result, the flare class, along with the SXR light curves, are routinely used as a primary input for forecasting properties of space weather drivers, from coronal mass ejection speed to energetic particle output. However, the GOES SXR irradiance lacks spatial information, leading to known classification errors, such as misattributed flare locations during periods of high activity. Moreover, GOES only provides observations from Earth's orbit, hindering forecasting for other places in the heliosphere. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce the Framework for Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis (FOXES), a Vision Transformer-based approach for translating Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spatially-resolved observations into SXR irradiance predictions. The model produces two outputs: (1) a global 1-8Å SXR flux prediction and (2) per-patch flux contributions, which offer a spatially-resolved interpretation of where the model attributes SXR emission. Trained, validated, and tested on over 3200 hours of observations, FOXES has demonstrated a translational mean absolute error of 0.051 dex for integrated SXR measurements. FOXES has also shown promise in dissecting the solar background SXR flux during flaring and non-flaring events. Overall, this model paves the way for EUV-based spatially-resolved flare detection to be extended beyond Earth's line of sight. Such capabilities could lead to a more comprehensive flare catalog and enable a true multiviewpoint monitoring of solar activity.

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arXiv2025

Fe I 6173 Å Emission During White-Light Solar Flares

Between 2017 and 2024, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory has observed numerous white-light solar flares (WLFs). HMI spectro-polarimetric observations of certain WLFs, in particular the X9.3 flare of September 6, 2017, reveal one or more locations within the umbra or along the umbra/penumbra boundary of the flaring active region where the Fe\,I 6173\,Å~line briefly goes into full emission, indicating significant heating of the photosphere and lower chromosphere. For five flares featuring Fe\,I 6173\,Å~line-core emission, we perform spectro-polarimetric analysis using HMI 90\,s cadence Stokes data. For all investigated flares, line-core emission is observed to last for a single 90\,s frame and is either concurrent with or followed by an increase in the line continuum intensity lasting one to two frames (90\,s\,--\,180\,s). Additionally, permanent changes to the Stokes Q, U, and/or V profiles were observed, indicating long-lasting non-transient changes to the photospheric magnetic field. These emissions coincided with local maxima in hard X-ray emission observed by Konus-Wind, as well as local maxima in the time derivative of soft X-ray emission observed by GOES 16-18. Comparison of the Fe\,I 6173\,Å~line profile synthesis for the ad-hoc heating of the initial empirical VAL-S umbra model and quiescent Sun (VAL-C-like) model indicates that the Fe\,I 6173\,Å~line emission in the white-light flare kernels could be explained by the strong heating of initially cool photospheric regions.

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arXiv2025

The Impacts of Magnetogram Projection Effects on Solar Flare Forecasting

This work explores the impacts of magnetogram projection effects on machine learning-based solar flare forecasting models. Utilizing a methodology proposed by Falconer et al. (2016), we correct for projection effects present in Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) benchmark data set. We then train and run a support vector machine classifier on the corrected and uncorrected data, comparing differences in performance. Additionally, we provide insight into several other methodologies that mitigate projection effects, such as stacking ensemble classifiers and active region location-informed models. Our analysis shows that data corrections slightly increase both the true positive (correctly predicted flaring samples) and false positive (non-flaring samples predicted as flaring) prediction rates, averaging a few percent. Similarly, changes in performance metrics are minimal for the stacking ensemble and location-based model. This suggests that a more complicated correction methodology may be needed to see improvements. It may also indicate inherent limitations when using magnetogram data for flare forecasting.

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arXiv2024

Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters of Merged MDI and HMI Space-Weather Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARP) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory) Active Region Patches (SHARP), which are two currently available data products containing magnetic field characteristics of solar active regions. The present work is an effort to combine them into one data product, and perform some initial statistical analyses in order to further expand their application in space weather forecasting. The combined data are derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP with SHARP parameters, which can then be spatially reduced to create uniform multivariate time series. The resulting combined MDI-HMI dataset currently spans the period between April 4, 1996, and December 13, 2022, and may be extended to a more recent date. This provides an opportunity to correlate and compare it with other space weather time series, such as the daily solar flare index or the statistical properties of the soft X-ray flux measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a relationship may exist, where some magnetic field properties of active regions lead the flare index in time. Applying the rolling window technique makes it possible to see how this leader-follower dynamic varies with time. Preliminary results indicate that areas of high correlation generally correspond to increased flare activity during the peak solar cycle.

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arXiv2024

Forecasting SEP Events During Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves, pose significant radiation hazards to aviation, space-based electronics, and particularly, space exploration. In this work, we utilize the recently developed dataset that combines the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager's (SDO/HMI) Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager's (SoHO/MDI) Space Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARP). We employ a suite of machine learning strategies, including Support Vector Machines (SVM) and regression models, to evaluate the predictive potential of this new data product for a forecast of post-solar flare SEP events. Our study indicates that despite the augmented volume of data, the prediction accuracy reaches 0.7 +- 0.1, which aligns with but does not exceed these published benchmarks. A linear SVM model with training and testing configurations that mimic an operational setting (positive-negative imbalance) reveals a slight increase (+ 0.04 +- 0.05) in the accuracy of a 14-hour SEP forecast compared to previous studies. This outcome emphasizes the imperative for more sophisticated, physics-informed models to better understand the underlying processes leading to SEP events.

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arXiv2024

Investigating Performance Trends of Simulated Real-time Solar Flare Predictions: The Impacts of Training Windows, Data Volumes, and the Solar Cycle

This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al. 2020a,b), we examine the impacts of training methodology and the solar cycle on decision tree, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron performance. We implement our classifiers using three temporal training windows: stationary, rolling, and expanding. The stationary window trains models using a single set of data available before the first forecasting instance, which remains constant throughout the solar cycle. The rolling window trains models using data from a constant time interval before the forecasting instance, which moves with the solar cycle. Finally, the expanding window trains models using all available data before the forecasting instance. For each window, a number of input features (1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 120) and temporal sizes (5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20 months) were tested. To our surprise, we found that for a 20-month window, skill scores were comparable regardless of the window type, feature count, and classifier selected. Furthermore, reducing the size of this window only marginally decreased stationary and rolling window performance. This implies that, given enough data, a stationary window can be chosen over other window types, eliminating the need for model retraining. Lastly, a moderately strong positive correlation was found to exist between a model's false positive rate and the solar X-ray background flux. This suggests that the solar cycle phase has a considerable influence on forecasting.

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arXiv2024

Subsurface Flows Associated with Formation and Flaring Activity of Solar Active Regions

We investigate the evolution of subsurface flows during the emergence and the active phase of sunspot regions using the time-distance helioseismology analysis of the full-disk Dopplergrams from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We present an analysis of emerging active regions of various types, including delta-type active regions and regions with the reverse polarity order (`anti-Hale active regions'). The results reveal strong vortical and shearing flows during the emergence of magnetic flux, as well as the process of formation of large-scale converging flow patterns around developing active regions, predominantly in the top 6 Mm deep layers of the convection zone. Our analysis revealed a significant correlation between the flow divergence and helicity in the active regions with their flaring activity, indicating that measuring characteristics of subsurface flows can contribute to flare forecasting.

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arXiv2023

Spectro-Polarimetric Properties of Sunquake Sources in X1.5 Flare and Evidence for Electron and Proton Beam Impacts

The first significant sunquake event of Solar Cycle 25 was observed during the X1.5 flare of May 10, 2022, by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We perform a detailed spectro-polarimetric analysis of the sunquake photospheric sources, using the Stokes profiles of the FeI 6173A line, reconstructed from the HMI linear and circular polarized filtergrams. The results show fast variations of the continuum emission with rapid growth and slower decay lasting 3-4 min, coinciding in time with the hard X-ray impulses observed by the Konus instrument onboard the Wind spacecraft. The variations in the line core appeared slightly ahead of the variations in the line wings, showing that the heating started in the higher atmospheric layers and propagated downward. The most significant feature of the line profile variations is the transient emission in the line core in three of the four sources, indicating intense, impulsive heating in the lower chromosphere and photosphere. In addition, the observed variations of the Stokes profiles reflect transient and permanent changes in the magnetic field strength and geometry in the sunquake sources. Comparison with the radiative hydrodynamics models shows that the physical processes in the impulsive flare phase are substantially more complex than those predicted by proton and electron beam flare models currently presented in the literature.

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arXiv2022

Solar Flare Ribbon Fronts I: Constraining flare energy deposition with IRIS spectroscopy

Lower atmospheric lines show peculiar profiles at the leading edge of ribbons during solar flares. In particular, increased absorption of the BBSO/GST \hei~10830~Å line \citep[e.g.][]{Xu2016}, as well as broad and centrally reversed profiles in the spectra of the \mgii~and \cii~lines observed by the \iris~satellite \citep[e.g.][]{Panos2018,Panos2021a} have been reported. In this work, we aim to understand the physical origin of the \iris\ ribbon front line profiles, which seem to be common of many, if not all, flares. To achieve this, we quantify the spectral properties of the \iris~\mgii~ribbon front profiles during four large flares and perform a detailed comparison with a grid of radiative hydrodynamic models using the \radynfp~code. We also studied their transition region counterparts, finding that these ribbon front locations are regions where transition region emission and chromospheric evaporation are considerably weaker compared to other parts of the ribbons. Based on our comparison between the \iris~observations and modelling, our interpretation is that there are different heating regimes at play in the leading and trailing regions of the ribbons. More specifically, we suggest that bombardment of the chromosphere by more gradual and modest non-thermal electron energy fluxes can qualitatively explain the \iris~observations at the ribbon front, while stronger and more impulsive energy fluxes are required to drive chromospheric evaporation and more intense TR emission. Our results provide a possible physical origin for the peculiar behaviour of the \iris~chromospheric lines in the ribbon leading edge and new constraints for the flare models.

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arXiv2022

Leptocline as a Shallow Substructure of Near-Surface Shear Layer in 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations

Understanding effects driven by rotation in the solar convection zone is essential for many problems related to solar activity, such as the formation of differential rotation, meridional circulation, and others. We analyze realistic 3D radiative hydrodynamics simulations of solar subsurface dynamics in the presence of rotation in a local domain 80 Mm wide and 25 Mm deep, located at 30 degrees latitude. The simulation results reveal the development of a shallow 10-Mm deep substructure of the Near-Surface Shear Layer (NSSL), characterized by a strong radial rotational gradient and self-organized meridional flows. This shallow layer ("leptocline") is located in the hydrogen ionization zone associated with enhanced anisotropic overshooting-type flows into a less unstable layer between the H and HeII ionization zones. We discuss current observational evidence of the presence of the leptocline and show that the radial variations of the differential rotation and meridional flow profiles obtained from the simulations in this layer qualitatively agree with helioseismic observations.

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arXiv2021

Multi-Passband Observations of A Solar Flare over the He I 10830 Å line

This study presents a C3.0 flare observed by the BBSO/GST and IRIS, on 2018-May-28 around 17:10 UT. The Near Infrared Imaging Spectropolarimeter (NIRIS) of GST was set to spectral imaging mode to scan five spectral positions at $\pm$ 0.8 Å, $\pm$ 0.4 Åand line center of He I 10830. At the flare ribbon's leading edge the line is observed to undergo enhanced absorption, while the rest of the ribbon is observed to be in emission. When in emission, the contrast compared to the pre-flare ranges from about $30~\%$ to nearly $100~\%$ at different spectral positions. Two types of spectra, "convex" shape with higher intensity at line core and "concave" shape with higher emission in the line wings, are found at the trailing and peak flaring areas, respectively. On the ribbon front, negative contrasts, or enhanced absorption, of about $\sim 10\% - 20\%$ appear in all five wavelengths. This observation strongly suggests that the negative flares observed in He I 10830 with mono-filtergram previously were not caused by pure Doppler shifts of this spectral line. Instead, the enhanced absorption appears to be a consequence of flare energy injection, namely non-thermal collisional ionization of helium caused by the precipitation of high energy electrons, as found in our recent numerical modeling results. In addition, though not strictly simultaneous, observations of Mg II from the IRIS spacecraft, show an obvious central reversal pattern at the locations where enhanced absorption of He I 10830 is seen, which is in consistent with previous observations.

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arXiv2021

Feature Selection on a Flare Forecasting Testbed: A Comparative Study of 24 Methods

The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique features, with 24 quantitative features computed from the photospheric magnetic field maps of active regions, describing their precedent flare activity. In this study, for the first time, we systematically attacked the problem of quantifying the relevance of these features to the ambitious task of flare forecasting. We implemented an end-to-end pipeline for preprocessing, feature selection, and evaluation phases. We incorporated 24 Feature Subset Selection (FSS) algorithms, including multivariate and univariate, supervised and unsupervised, wrappers and filters. We methodologically compared the results of different FSS algorithms, both on the multivariate time series and vectorized formats, and tested their correlation and reliability, to the extent possible, by using the selected features for flare forecasting on unseen data, in univariate and multivariate fashions. We concluded our investigation with a report of the best FSS methods in terms of their top-k features, and the analysis of the findings. We wish the reproducibility of our study and the availability of the data allow the future attempts be comparable with our findings and themselves.

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arXiv2021

He I 10830 Å Dimming During Solar Flares, I. The Crucial Role of Non-Thermal Collisional Ionisations

While solar flares are predominantly characterised by an intense broadband enhancement to the solar radiative output, certain spectral lines and continua will, in theory, exhibit flare-induced dimmings. Observations of transitions of orthohelium He I $λλ10830$Å and the He I D3 lines have shown evidence of such dimming, usually followed by enhanced emission. It has been suggested that non-thermal collisional ionisation of helium by an electron beam, followed by recombinations to orthohelium, is responsible for overpopulating the those levels, leading to stronger absorption. However it has not been possible observationally to preclude the possibility of overpopulating orthohelium via enhanced photoionisation of He I by EUV irradiance from the flaring corona followed by recombinations. Here we present radiation hydrodynamics simulations of non-thermal electron beam-driven flares where (1) both non-thermal collisional ionisation of Helium and coronal irradiance are included, and (2) only coronal irradiance is included. A grid of simulations covering a range of total energies deposited by the electron beam, and a range of non-thermal electron beam low-energy cutoff values, were simulated. In order to obtain flare-induced dimming of the He I 10830Å line it was necessary for non-thermal collisional ionisations to be present. The effect was more prominent in flares with larger low-energy cutoff values and longer lived in weaker flares and flares with a more gradual energy deposition timescale. These results demonstrate the usefulness of orthohelium line emission as a diagnostic of flare energy transport.

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arXiv2021

Connecting Atmospheric Properties and Synthetic Emission of Shock Waves Using 3D RMHD Simulations of Quiet Sun

We analyze the evolution of shock waves in high-resolution 3D radiative MHD simulations of the quiet Sun and their synthetic emission characteristics. The simulations model the dynamics of a 12.8x12.8x15.2 Mm quiet-Sun region (including a 5.2 Mm layer of the upper convection zone and a 10 Mm atmosphere from the photosphere to corona) with an initially uniform vertical magnetic field of 10 G, naturally driven by convective flows. We synthesize the Mg II and C II spectral lines observed by the IRIS satellite and EUV emission observed by the SDO/AIA telescope. Synthetic observations are obtained using the RH1.5D radiative transfer code and temperature response functions at both the numerical and instrumental resolutions. We found that the Doppler velocity jumps of the C II 1334.5 A IRIS line and a relative enhancement of the emission in the 335 A SDO/AIA channel are the best proxies for the enthalpy deposited by shock waves into the corona (with Kendall's $τ$ correlation coefficients of 0.59 and 0.38, respectively). The synthetic emission of the lines and extreme ultraviolet passbands are correlated with each other during the shock wave propagation. All studied shocks are mostly hydrodynamic (i.e., the magnetic energy carried by horizontal fields is $\leq{}$2.6% of the enthalpy for all events) and have Mach numbers > 1.0-1.2 in the low corona. The study reveals the possibility of diagnosing energy transport by shock waves into the solar corona, as well as their other properties, by using IRIS and SDO/AIA sensing observations.

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arXiv2020

Comparison of Enhanced Absorption in He I 10830 Å in Observations and Modeling During the Early Phase of a Solar Flare

The He I 10830 Å triplet is a very informative indicator of chromospheric activities as the helium is the second most abundant element in the solar atmosphere. Taking advantage of the high resolution of the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), previous observations have shown clear evidence of the enhanced absorption, instead of typically-observed emission, for two M-class flares. In this study, we analyze the evolution of the He I 10830 10830 Å emission in numerical models and compare it with observations. The models represent the RADYN simulation results obtained from the F-CHROMA database. We consider the models with the injected electron spectra parameters close to observational estimates for the 2013-August-17 flare event ($δ=8$, $E_c = \{15,20\}$ keV, $F=\{1\times 10^{11}, 3\times{}10^{11}\}$ erg cm$^{-2}$) in detail, as well as other available models. The modeling results agree well with observations, in the sense of both the maximum intensity decrease (-17.1%, compared to the observed value of -13.7%) and the trend of temporal variation (initial absorption phase followed by the emission). All models demonstrate the increased number densities and decreased ratio of the upper and lower level populations of He I 10830 10830 Å transition in the initial phase, which enhances the opacity and forms an absorption feature. Models suggest that the temperatures and free electron densities at heights of 1.3-1.5 Mm should be larger than $\sim 10^4$ K and $6\times 10^{11}$ cm$^{-3}$ thresholds for the line to start being in emission.

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arXiv2015

Properties of chromospheric evaporation and plasma dynamics of a solar flare from IRIS observations

Dynamics of hot chromospheric plasma of solar flares is a key to understanding of mechanisms of flare energy release and particle acceleration. A moderate M1.0 class flare of 12 June, 2014 (SOL2014-06-12T21:12) was simultaneously observed by NASA's Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), other spacecraft, and also by New Solar Telescope (NST) at the BBSO. This paper presents the first part of our investigation focused on analysis of the IRIS data. Our analysis of the IRIS data in different spectral lines reveals strong redshifted jet-like flow with the speed of ~100 km/s of the chromospheric material before the flare. Strong nonthermal emission of the C II k 1334.5 A line, formed in the chromosphere-corona transition region, is observed at the beginning of the impulsive phase in several small (with a size of ~1 arcsec) points. It is also found that the C II k line is redshifted across the flaring region before, during and after the impulsive phase. A peak of integrated emission of the hot (1.1 MK) plasma in the Fe XXI 1354.1 A line is detected approximately 5 minutes after the integrated emission peak of the lower temperature C II k. A strong blueshift of the Fe XXI line across the flaring region corresponds to evaporation flows of the hot chromospheric plasma with a speed of 50 km/s. Additional analysis of the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) data supports the idea that the upper chromospheric dynamics observed by IRIS has features of "gentle" evaporation driven by heating of the solar chromosphere by accelerated electrons and by a heat flux from the flare energy release site.

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arXiv2014

Using MHD simulations to model H-alpha and UV spectral lines for interpretation of IRIS and NST data

We present results of non-LTE modeling of H-alpha 6563 A and Mg II k&h 2796 A and 2803 A lines. This modeling is important for interpretation of coordinated observations from the recently launched NASA's IRIS mission and from the New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. Among available codes for the non-LTE modeling, the RH code is chosen as the most appropriate for modeling of the line profiles. The most suitable Hydrogen and Magnesium atomic models are selected by performing several tests of the code. The influence of the ionization degree on the line profiles is also studied. Radiative-MHD simulations of the solar atmosphere, obtained with the Bifrost code, are used as input data for calculation of synthetic spectra of the H-alpha and Mg II h&k lines for particular locations evolving with time. The spectral line variations reveal the presence of MHD waves in the simulation results. We construct oscillation power spectra of the line intensity for different wavelength, and compare these with the corresponding height-dependent power spectra of atmospheric parameters from the simulations. We find correlations between the power spectra of intensities of the line profiles at certain wavelengths and the power spectra of the atmospheric parameters at the tau-unity heights for these wavelengths. These results provide a new diagnostic method of chromospheric oscillations; however, larger amounts of data are needed to confirm these correlations.

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