arXiv subjects

Vicky Verma

Publications and source records attributed to Vicky Verma.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Lagrangian surface signatures reveal upper-ocean vertical displacement conduits near oceanic density fronts

Vertical transport in the ocean plays a critical role in the exchange of freshwater, heat, nutrients, and other biogeochemical tracers. While there are situations where vertical fluxes are important, studying the vertical transport and displacement of material requires analysis over a finite interval of time. One such example is the subduction of fluid from the mixed layer into the pycnocline, which is known to occur near density fronts. Divergence has been used to estimate vertical velocities indicating that surface measurements, where observational data is most widely available, can be used to locate these vertical transport conduits. We evaluate the correlation between surface signatures derived from Eulerian (horizontal divergence, density gradient, and vertical velocity) and Lagrangian (dilation rate and finite time Lyapunov exponent) metrics and vertical displacement conduits. Two submesoscale resolving models of density fronts and a data-assimilative model of the western Mediterranean were analyzed. The Lagrangian surface signatures locate significantly more of the strongest displacement features and the difference in the expected displacements relative to Eulerian ones increases with the length of the time interval considered. Ensemble analysis of forecasts from the Mediterranean model demonstrates that the Lagrangian surface signatures can be used to identify regions of strongest downward vertical displacement even without knowledge of the true ocean state.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2020

Lagrangian study of dispersion and transport by submesoscale currents at an upper-ocean front

The three-dimensional transport pathways, the time scales of vertical transport, and the dispersion characteristics of submesoscale currents at an upper-ocean front are investigated using material points (tracer particles) that advect with the local fluid velocity. Coherent submesoscale vortex filaments and eddies which dominate submesoscale (0.1 - 10 km) dynamics are found to play a crucial role which is quantified here. These coherent structures are generated and sustained through nonlinear evolution of baroclinic instability. The collective motion of particles helps identify common features of transport at the front. It is found that the particles in the central region organize into inclined lobes, each associated with an eddy, and the filaments associated with the heavy- and light-edges of the front transfer edge particles to the lobes. This flux of new particles into the lobe causes local particles to adjust, which leads to slumping of the front. The particle motion in the vertical shows multiple time scales -- a fast time scale with O(10) m vertical displacement within an hour and a slower near-inertial time scale, comparable to the intrinsic time scale of the growing instability. The fast time scale motions typically occur in the vortex filaments. The overall slumping process is slower than what one might anticipate from the large magnitude of vertical velocity in the filaments and requires a sustained correlation over time between the lateral and the vertical motion. By tracking clouds of particles, we show that their centers of mass downwell/upwell over 1-2 inertial time periods, after which an adjustment follows with a sub-inertial time scale. The dispersion characteristics of the submesoscale turbulent currents using single- and pair-particle statistics have been investigated. The shape change in clusters of four particles reveals deformation into thin, needle-like structures.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Study of lockdown/testing mitigation strategies on stochastic SIR model and its comparison with South Korea, Germany and New York data

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This situation will fruitfully profit from the study in regards of the spread of the virus, assessing effective countermeasures to weight the impact of the adopted strategies. The standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is a very successful and widely used mathematical model for predicting the spread of an epidemic. We adopt the SIR model on a random network and extend the model to include control strategies {\em lockdown} and {\em testing} -- two often employed mitigation strategies. The ability of these strategies in controlling the pandemic spread is investigated by varying the effectiveness with which they are implemented. The possibility of a second outbreak is evaluated in detail after the mitigation strategies are withdrawn. We notice that, in any case, a sudden interruption of such mitigation strategies will likely induce a resurgence of a second outbreak, whose peak will be correlated to the number of susceptible individuals. In fact, we find that a population will remain vulnerable to the infection until the herd immunity is achieved. We also test our model with real statistics and information on the epidemic spread in South Korea, Germany, and New York and find a remarkable agreement with the simulation data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The submesoscale, the finescale and their interaction at a mixed layer front

The spindown of a geostrophically balanced density front in an upper-ocean mixed layer is simulated with a large eddy simulation (LES) model that resolves O(1000) m down to O(1) m scale. Our goal is to examine the interaction between the submesoscale and the turbulent finescale, and better characterize vertical transport, frontogenesis and dissipative processes. The flow passes through symmetric and baroclinic instabilities, spawns vortex filaments of O(100) m thickness as well as larger eddies, and develops turbulence that is spatially localized and organized. A O(100) m physical-space filter is applied to the simulated flow to separate the coherent submesoscale from the finescale in a decomposition that preserves their spatial organization unlike the typical practice of along-front averaging. Analysis of the submesoscale vertical velocity (as large as 5 mm/s) reveals that downwelling is limited to the thin vortex filaments while upwelling occurs over spatially extensive regions in the eddies, resulting in an overall buoyancy flux that is restratifying. The kinetic energy (KE) transport equations are evaluated separately at both the scales to understand energy pathways in this problem. The buoyancy flux associated with coherent motions acts as the primary source of submesoscale KE which is then transported across the front with a fraction transferred to the finescale. The transfer, limited to thin regions of O(100) m horizontal width, is accomplished by primarily horizontal strain in the upper 10 m and by vertical shear in the rest of the 50 m deep mixed layer. Frontogenetic mechanisms are diagnosed through analysis of the transport equation for squared buoyancy gradient. Horizontal strain is the primary frontogenetic term and is counteracted primarily by horizontal diffusion in the top 10 m and by the horizontal gradient of vertical velocity further below.

physics.ao-ph↗