arXiv subjects

Victor Veitch

Publications and source records attributed to Victor Veitch.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Uncovering Meanings of Embeddings via Partial Orthogonality

Machine learning tools often rely on embedding text as vectors of real numbers. In this paper, we study how the semantic structure of language is encoded in the algebraic structure of such embeddings. Specifically, we look at a notion of ``semantic independence'' capturing the idea that, e.g., ``eggplant'' and ``tomato'' are independent given ``vegetable''. Although such examples are intuitive, it is difficult to formalize such a notion of semantic independence. The key observation here is that any sensible formalization should obey a set of so-called independence axioms, and thus any algebraic encoding of this structure should also obey these axioms. This leads us naturally to use partial orthogonality as the relevant algebraic structure. We develop theory and methods that allow us to demonstrate that partial orthogonality does indeed capture semantic independence. Complementary to this, we also introduce the concept of independence preserving embeddings where embeddings preserve the conditional independence structures of a distribution, and we prove the existence of such embeddings and approximations to them.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

The Causal Structure of Domain Invariant Supervised Representation Learning

Machine learning methods can be unreliable when deployed in domains that differ from the domains on which they were trained. There are a wide range of proposals for mitigating this problem by learning representations that are ``invariant'' in some sense.However, these methods generally contradict each other, and none of them consistently improve performance on real-world domain shift benchmarks. There are two main questions that must be addressed to understand when, if ever, we should use each method. First, how does each ad hoc notion of ``invariance'' relate to the structure of real-world problems? And, second, when does learning invariant representations actually yield robust models? To address these issues, we introduce a broad formal notion of what it means for a real-world domain shift to admit invariant structure. Then, we characterize the causal structures that are compatible with this notion of invariance.With this in hand, we find conditions under which method-specific invariance notions correspond to real-world invariant structure, and we clarify the relationship between invariant structure and robustness to domain shifts. For both questions, we find that the true underlying causal structure of the data plays a critical role.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Causal Estimation for Text Data with (Apparent) Overlap Violations

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to adjust for confounding aspects of the text that affect both the treatment and outcome -- e.g., the topic or writing level of the text. These confounding aspects are unknown a priori, so it seems natural to adjust for the entirety of the text (e.g., using a transformer). However, causal identification and estimation procedures rely on the assumption of overlap: for all levels of the adjustment variables, there is randomness leftover so that every unit could have (not) received treatment. Since the treatment here is itself an attribute of the text, it is perfectly determined, and overlap is apparently violated. The purpose of this paper is to show how to handle causal identification and obtain robust causal estimation in the presence of apparent overlap violations. In brief, the idea is to use supervised representation learning to produce a data representation that preserves confounding information while eliminating information that is only predictive of the treatment. This representation then suffices for adjustment and can satisfy overlap. Adapting results on non-parametric estimation, we find that this procedure is robust to conditional outcome misestimation, yielding a low-bias estimator with valid uncertainty quantification under weak conditions. Empirical results show strong improvements in bias and uncertainty quantification relative to the natural baseline.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Causal Inference in Natural Language Processing: Estimation, Prediction, Interpretation and Beyond

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the challenges and opportunities in the application of causal inference to the textual domain, with its unique properties. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects with text, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the NLP community.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Invariant and Transportable Representations for Anti-Causal Domain Shifts

Real-world classification problems must contend with domain shift, the (potential) mismatch between the domain where a model is deployed and the domain(s) where the training data was gathered. Methods to handle such problems must specify what structure is common between the domains and what varies. A natural assumption is that causal (structural) relationships are invariant in all domains. Then, it is tempting to learn a predictor for label $Y$ that depends only on its causal parents. However, many real-world problems are "anti-causal" in the sense that $Y$ is a cause of the covariates $X$ -- in this case, $Y$ has no causal parents and the naive causal invariance is useless. In this paper, we study representation learning under a particular notion of domain shift that both respects causal invariance and that naturally handles the "anti-causal" structure. We show how to leverage the shared causal structure of the domains to learn a representation that both admits an invariant predictor and that also allows fast adaptation in new domains. The key is to translate causal assumptions into learning principles that disentangle "invariant" and "non-stable" features. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed learning algorithm. Code is available at https://github.com/ybjiaang/ACTIR.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Using Embeddings for Causal Estimation of Peer Influence in Social Networks

We address the problem of using observational data to estimate peer contagion effects, the influence of treatments applied to individuals in a network on the outcomes of their neighbors. A main challenge to such estimation is that homophily - the tendency of connected units to share similar latent traits - acts as an unobserved confounder for contagion effects. Informally, it's hard to tell whether your friends have similar outcomes because they were influenced by your treatment, or whether it's due to some common trait that caused you to be friends in the first place. Because these common causes are not usually directly observed, they cannot be simply adjusted for. We describe an approach to perform the required adjustment using node embeddings learned from the network itself. The main aim is to perform this adjustment nonparametrically, without functional form assumptions on either the process that generated the network or the treatment assignment and outcome processes. The key contributions are to nonparametrically formalize the causal effect in a way that accounts for homophily, and to show how embedding methods can be used to identify and estimate this effect. Code is available at https://github.com/IrinaCristali/Peer-Contagion-on-Networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Counterfactual Invariance to Spurious Correlations: Why and How to Pass Stress Tests

Informally, a 'spurious correlation' is the dependence of a model on some aspect of the input data that an analyst thinks shouldn't matter. In machine learning, these have a know-it-when-you-see-it character; e.g., changing the gender of a sentence's subject changes a sentiment predictor's output. To check for spurious correlations, we can 'stress test' models by perturbing irrelevant parts of input data and seeing if model predictions change. In this paper, we study stress testing using the tools of causal inference. We introduce counterfactual invariance as a formalization of the requirement that changing irrelevant parts of the input shouldn't change model predictions. We connect counterfactual invariance to out-of-domain model performance, and provide practical schemes for learning (approximately) counterfactual invariant predictors (without access to counterfactual examples). It turns out that both the means and implications of counterfactual invariance depend fundamentally on the true underlying causal structure of the data -- in particular, whether the label causes the features or the features cause the label. Distinct causal structures require distinct regularization schemes to induce counterfactual invariance. Similarly, counterfactual invariance implies different domain shift guarantees depending on the underlying causal structure. This theory is supported by empirical results on text classification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Invariant Representation Learning for Treatment Effect Estimation

The defining challenge for causal inference from observational data is the presence of `confounders', covariates that affect both treatment assignment and the outcome. To address this challenge, practitioners collect and adjust for the covariates, hoping that they adequately correct for confounding. However, including every observed covariate in the adjustment runs the risk of including `bad controls', variables that induce bias when they are conditioned on. The problem is that we do not always know which variables in the covariate set are safe to adjust for and which are not. To address this problem, we develop Nearly Invariant Causal Estimation (NICE). NICE uses invariant risk minimization (IRM) [Arj19] to learn a representation of the covariates that, under some assumptions, strips out bad controls but preserves sufficient information to adjust for confounding. Adjusting for the learned representation, rather than the covariates themselves, avoids the induced bias and provides valid causal inferences. We evaluate NICE on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data. When the covariates contain unknown collider variables and other bad controls, NICE performs better than adjusting for all the covariates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Causal Effects of Linguistic Properties

We consider the problem of using observational data to estimate the causal effects of linguistic properties. For example, does writing a complaint politely lead to a faster response time? How much will a positive product review increase sales? This paper addresses two technical challenges related to the problem before developing a practical method. First, we formalize the causal quantity of interest as the effect of a writer's intent, and establish the assumptions necessary to identify this from observational data. Second, in practice, we only have access to noisy proxies for the linguistic properties of interest -- e.g., predictions from classifiers and lexicons. We propose an estimator for this setting and prove that its bias is bounded when we perform an adjustment for the text. Based on these results, we introduce TextCause, an algorithm for estimating causal effects of linguistic properties. The method leverages (1) distant supervision to improve the quality of noisy proxies, and (2) a pre-trained language model (BERT) to adjust for the text. We show that the proposed method outperforms related approaches when estimating the effect of Amazon review sentiment on semi-simulated sales figures. Finally, we present an applied case study investigating the effects of complaint politeness on bureaucratic response times.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

The Holdout Randomization Test for Feature Selection in Black Box Models

We propose the holdout randomization test (HRT), an approach to feature selection using black box predictive models. The HRT is a specialized version of the conditional randomization test (CRT; Candes et al., 2018) that uses data splitting for feasible computation. The HRT works with any predictive model and produces a valid $p$-value for each feature. To make the HRT more practical, we propose a set of extensions to maximize power and speed up computation. In simulations, these extensions lead to greater power than a competing knockoffs-based approach, without sacrificing control of the error rate. We apply the HRT to two case studies from the scientific literature where heuristics were originally used to select important features for predictive models. The results illustrate how such heuristics can be misleading relative to principled methods like the HRT. Code is available at https://github.com/tansey/hrt.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Bootstrap estimators for the tail-index and for the count statistics of graphex processes

Graphex processes resolve some pathologies in traditional random graph models, notably, providing models that are both projective and allow sparsity. Most of the literature on graphex processes study them from a probabilistic point of view. Techniques for inferring the parameter of these processes -- the so-called \textit{graphon} -- are still marginal; exceptions are a few papers considering parametric families of graphons. Nonparametric estimation remains unconsidered. In this paper, we propose estimators for a selected choice of functionals of the graphon. Our estimators originate from the subsampling theory for graphex processes, hence can be seen as a form of bootstrap procedure.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Sense and Sensitivity Analysis: Simple Post-Hoc Analysis of Bias Due to Unobserved Confounding

It is a truth universally acknowledged that an observed association without known mechanism must be in want of a causal estimate. However, causal estimation from observational data often relies on the (untestable) assumption of `no unobserved confounding'. Violations of this assumption can induce bias in effect estimates. In principle, such bias could invalidate or reverse the conclusions of a study. However, in some cases, we might hope that the influence of unobserved confounders is weak relative to a `large' estimated effect, so the qualitative conclusions are robust to bias from unobserved confounding. The purpose of this paper is to develop \emph{Austen plots}, a sensitivity analysis tool to aid such judgments by making it easier to reason about potential bias induced by unobserved confounding. We formalize confounding strength in terms of how strongly the confounder influences treatment assignment and outcome. For a target level of bias, an Austen plot shows the minimum values of treatment and outcome influence required to induce that level of bias. Domain experts can then make subjective judgments about whether such strong confounders are plausible. To aid this judgment, the Austen plot additionally displays the estimated influence strength of (groups of) the observed covariates. Austen plots generalize the classic sensitivity analysis approach of Imbens [Imb03]. Critically, Austen plots allow any approach for modeling the observed data and producing the initial estimate. We illustrate the tool by assessing biases for several real causal inference problems, using a variety of machine learning approaches for the initial data analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/anishazaveri/austen_plots

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Adapting Text Embeddings for Causal Inference

Does adding a theorem to a paper affect its chance of acceptance? Does labeling a post with the author's gender affect the post popularity? This paper develops a method to estimate such causal effects from observational text data, adjusting for confounding features of the text such as the subject or writing quality. We assume that the text suffices for causal adjustment but that, in practice, it is prohibitively high-dimensional. To address this challenge, we develop causally sufficient embeddings, low-dimensional document representations that preserve sufficient information for causal identification and allow for efficient estimation of causal effects. Causally sufficient embeddings combine two ideas. The first is supervised dimensionality reduction: causal adjustment requires only the aspects of text that are predictive of both the treatment and outcome. The second is efficient language modeling: representations of text are designed to dispose of linguistically irrelevant information, and this information is also causally irrelevant. Our method adapts language models (specifically, word embeddings and topic models) to learn document embeddings that are able to predict both treatment and outcome. We study causally sufficient embeddings with semi-synthetic datasets and find that they improve causal estimation over related embedding methods. We illustrate the methods by answering the two motivating questions---the effect of a theorem on paper acceptance and the effect of a gender label on post popularity. Code and data available at https://github.com/vveitch/causal-text-embeddings-tf2}{github.com/vveitch/causal-text-embeddings-tf2

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Valid Causal Inference with (Some) Invalid Instruments

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any relationship between the instrument variable and the response that is not mediated by the treatment. In this paper, we show how to perform consistent IV estimation despite violations of the exclusion assumption. In particular, we show that when one has multiple candidate instruments, only a majority of these candidates---or, more generally, the modal candidate-response relationship---needs to be valid to estimate the causal effect. Our approach uses an estimate of the modal prediction from an ensemble of instrumental variable estimators. The technique is simple to apply and is "black-box" in the sense that it may be used with any instrumental variable estimator as long as the treatment effect is identified for each valid instrument independently. As such, it is compatible with recent machine-learning based estimators that allow for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) on complex, high dimensional data. Experimentally, we achieve accurate estimates of conditional average treatment effects using an ensemble of deep network-based estimators, including on a challenging simulated Mendelian Randomization problem.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Sampling perspectives on sparse exchangeable graphs

Recent work has introduced sparse exchangeable graphs and the associated graphex framework, as a generalization of dense exchangeable graphs and the associated graphon framework. The development of this subject involves the interplay between the statistical modeling of network data, the theory of large graph limits, exchangeability, and network sampling. The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the relationships between these subjects by explaining each in terms of a certain natural sampling scheme associated with the graphex model. The first main technical contribution is the introduction of sampling convergence, a new notion of graph limit that generalizes left convergence so that it becomes meaningful for the sparse graph regime. The second main technical contribution is the demonstration that the (somewhat cryptic) notion of exchangeability underpinning the graphex framework is equivalent to a more natural probabilistic invariance expressed in terms of the sampling scheme.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Adapting Neural Networks for the Estimation of Treatment Effects

This paper addresses the use of neural networks for the estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Generally, estimation proceeds in two stages. First, we fit models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment (propensity score) for each unit. Second, we plug these fitted models into a downstream estimator of the effect. Neural networks are a natural choice for the models in the first step. The question we address is: how can we adapt the design and training of the neural networks used in the first step in order to improve the quality of the final estimate of the treatment effect? We propose two adaptations based on insights from the statistical literature on the estimation of treatment effects. The first is a new architecture, the Dragonnet, that exploits the sufficiency of the propensity score for estimation adjustment. The second is a regularization procedure, targeted regularization, that induces a bias towards models that have non-parametrically optimal asymptotic properties `out-of-the-box`. Studies on benchmark datasets for causal inference show these adaptations outperform existing methods. Code is available at github.com/claudiashi57/dragonnet.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Using Embeddings to Correct for Unobserved Confounding in Networks

We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. We study the case where a proxy is available for the unobserved confounding in the form of a network connecting the units. For example, the link structure of a social network carries information about its members. We show how to effectively use the proxy to do causal inference. The main idea is to reduce the causal estimation problem to a semi-supervised prediction of both the treatments and outcomes. Networks admit high-quality embedding models that can be used for this semi-supervised prediction. We show that the method yields valid inferences under suitable (weak) conditions on the quality of the predictive model. We validate the method with experiments on a semi-synthetic social network dataset. Code is available at github.com/vveitch/causal-network-embeddings.

stat.ML↗