Victor Verma | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Defects and Inconsistencies in Solar Flare Data Sources: Implications for Machine Learning Forecasting

Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources is minimally processed before being used to train and validate a forecasting model. However, predictive performance can be affected if defects and inconsistencies between these data sources are ignored. For a set of commonly used data sources, along with the software that queries and outputs processed data, we identify their defects and inconsistencies, quantify their extent, and show how they can affect predictions from data-driven machine-learning forecasting models. We also outline procedures for fixing these issues or at least mitigating their impacts. Finally, based on thorough comparisons of the effects of data sources on the trained forecasting model's predictive skill scores, we offer recommendations for using different data products in operational forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

On the optimal prediction of extreme events in heavy-tailed time series with applications to solar flare forecasting

The prediction of extreme events in time series is a fundamental problem arising in many financial, scientific, engineering, and other applications. We begin by establishing a general Neyman-Pearson-type characterization of optimal extreme event predictors in terms of density ratios. This yields new insights and several closed-form optimal extreme event predictors for additive models. These results naturally extend to time series, where we study optimal extreme event prediction for both light- and heavy-tailed autoregressive and moving average models. Using a uniform law of large numbers for ergodic time series, we establish the asymptotic optimality of an empirical version of the optimal predictor for autoregressive models. Using multivariate regular variation, we obtain an expression for the optimal extremal precision in heavy-tailed infinite moving averages, which provides theoretical bounds on the ability to predict extremes in this general class of models. We address the important problem of predicting solar flares by applying our theory and methodology to a state-of-the-art time series consisting of solar soft X-ray flux measurements. Our results demonstrate the success and limitations in solar flare forecasting of long-memory autoregressive models and long-range-dependent, heavy-tailed FARIMA models.

math.ST↗