arXiv subjects

Viktor Stojkoski

Publications and source records attributed to Viktor Stojkoski.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Correlates of the country differences in the infection and mortality rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Bayesian model averaging

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also influence the extent to which these discrepancies appear. Consequently, there is an active debate regarding the critical socio-economic and health factors that correlate with the infection and mortality rates outcome of the pandemic. Here, we leverage Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate the potential of 28 variables, describing a diverse set of health and socio-economic characteristics, in being correlates of the final number of infections and deaths during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. We show that only few variables are able to robustly correlate with these outcomes. To understand the relationship between the potential correlates in explaining the infection and death rates, we create a Jointness Space. Using this space, we conclude that the extent to which each variable is able to provide a credible explanation for the COVID-19 infections/mortality outcome varies between countries because of their heterogeneous features.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Income inequality and mobility in geometric Brownian motion with stochastic resetting: theoretical results and empirical evidence of non-ergodicity

We explore the role of non-ergodicity in the relationship between income inequality, the extent of concentration in the income distribution, and mobility, the feasibility of an individual to change their position in the income distribution. For this purpose, we explore the properties of an established model for income growth that includes "resetting" as a stabilising force which ensures stationary dynamics. We find that the dynamics of inequality is regime-dependent and may range from a strictly non-ergodic state where this phenomenon has an increasing trend, up to a stable regime where inequality is steady and the system efficiently mimics ergodic behaviour. Mobility measures, conversely, are always stable over time, but the stationary value is dependent on the regime, suggesting that economies become less mobile in non-ergodic regimes. By fitting the model to empirical data for the dynamics of income share of the top earners in the United States, we provide evidence that the income dynamics in this country is consistently in a regime in which non-ergodicity characterises inequality and immobility dynamics. Our results can serve as a simple rationale for the observed real world income dynamics and as such aid in addressing non-ergodicity in various empirical settings across the globe.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Geometric Brownian Motion under Stochastic Resetting: A Stationary yet Non-ergodic Process

We study the effects of stochastic resetting on geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a canonical stochastic multiplicative process for non-stationary and non-ergodic dynamics. Resetting is a sudden interruption of a process, which consecutively renews its dynamics. We show that, although resetting renders GBM stationary, the resulting process remains non-ergodic. Quite surprisingly, the effect of resetting is pivotal in manifesting the non-ergodic behavior. In particular, we observe three different long-time regimes: a quenched state, an unstable and a stable annealed state depending on the resetting strength. Notably, in the last regime, the system is self-averaging and thus the sample average will always mimic ergodic behavior establishing a stand alone feature for GBM under resetting. Crucially, the above-mentioned regimes are well separated by a self-averaging time period which can be minimized by an optimal resetting rate. Our results can be useful to interpret data emanating from stock market collapse or reconstitution of investment portfolios.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Autocorrelation functions and ergodicity in diffusion with stochastic resetting

Diffusion with stochastic resetting is a paradigm of resetting processes. Standard renewal or master equation approach are typically used to study steady state and other transport properties such as average, mean squared displacement etc. What remains less explored is the two time point correlation functions whose evaluation is often daunting since it requires the implementation of the exact time dependent probability density functions of the resetting processes which are unknown for most of the problems. We adopt a different approach that allows us to write a stochastic solution in the level of a single trajectory undergoing resetting. Moments and the autocorrelation functions between any two times along the trajectory can then be computed directly using the laws of total expectation. Estimation of autocorrelation functions turns out to be pivotal for investigating the ergodic properties of various observables for this canonical model. In particular, we investigate two observables (i) sample mean which is widely used in economics and (ii) time-averaged-mean-squared-displacement (TAMSD) which is of acute interest in physics. We find that both diffusion and drift-diffusion processes are ergodic at the mean level unlike their reset-free counterparts. In contrast, resetting renders ergodicity breaking in the TAMSD while both the stochastic processes are ergodic when resetting is absent. We quantify these behaviors with detailed analytical study and corroborate with extensive numerical simulations. The current study provides an important baseline that unifies two different approaches, used ubiquitously in economics and physics, for studying the ergodic properties in diffusion with resetting. We believe that our results can be verified in single particle experimental set-ups and thus have strong implications in the field of resetting.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Determinants of budget deficits: Focus on the effects from the COVID-19 crisis

This paper revisits the discussion on determinants of budget balances and investigates the change in their effect in light of the COVID-19 crisis by utilizing data on 43 countries and a system generalized method of moments approach. The results show that the overall impact of the global pandemic led to a disproportionate increase in the magnitude of the estimated effects of the macroeconomic determinants on the budget balance. However, we also find that more developed economies were able to undertake higher stimulus packages for the relatively same level of primary balance. We believe that one of the factors affecting this outcome is that that they exhibit a higher government debt position in domestic currency denomination.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Evolution of cooperation in networked heterogeneous fluctuating environments

Fluctuating environments are situations where the spatio-temporal stochasticity plays a significant role in the evolutionary dynamics. The study of the evolution of cooperation in these environments typically assumes a homogeneous, well mixed population, whose constituents are endowed with identical capabilities. In this paper, we generalize these results by developing a systematic study for the cooperation dynamics in fluctuating environments under the consideration of structured, heterogeneous populations with individual entities subjected to general behavioral rules. Considering complex network topologies, and a behavioral rule based on generalized reciprocity, we perform a detailed analysis of the effect of the underlying interaction structure on the evolutionary stability of cooperation. We find that, in the presence of environmental fluctuations, the cooperation dynamics can lead to the creation of multiple network components, each with distinct evolutionary properties. This is paralleled to the freezing state in the Random Energy Model. We utilize this result to examine the applicability of our generalized reciprocity behavioral rule in a variety of settings. We thereby show that the introduced rule leads to steady state cooperative behavior that is always greater than or equal to the one predicted by the evolutionary stability analysis of unconditional cooperation. As a consequence, the implementation of our results may go beyond explaining the evolution of cooperation. In particular, they can be directly applied in domains that deal with the development of artificial systems able to adequately mimic reality, such as reinforcement learning.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

The impact of state capacity on the cross-country variations in COVID-19 vaccination rates

The initial period of vaccination shows strong heterogeneity between countries' vaccinations rollout, both in the terms of the start of the vaccination process and in the dynamics of the number of people that are vaccinated. A predominant thesis in the ongoing debate on the drivers of this observed heterogeneity is that a key determinant of the swift and extensive vaccine rollout is state capacity. Here, we utilize two measures that quantify different aspects of the state capacity: i) the external capacity (measured through the soft power and the economic power of the country) and ii) the internal capacity (measured via the country's government effectiveness) and investigate their relationship with the coronavirus vaccination outcome in the initial period (up to 30th January 2021). By using data on 189 countries and a two-step Heckman approach, we find that the economic power of the country and its soft power are robust determinants of whether a country has started with the vaccination process. In addition, the government effectiveness is a key factor that determines vaccine roll-out. Altogether, our findings are in line with the hypothesis that state capacity determines the observed heterogeneity between countries in the initial period of COVID-19 vaccines rollout.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

The short-run impact of COVID-19 on the activity in the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia during the first half of 2020. By utilizing seasonal autoregressive models and data for 11 insurance classes, we find that the insurance activity shrank by more than 10% compared to what was expected. The total loss in the industry was, however, much less than the amount of funds made available by the Insurance Supervision Agency. This was because the pandemic induced changes in the activity structure - the share of Motor vehicles class fell at the expense of the property classes.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Generalised geometric Brownian motion: Theory and applications to option pricing

Classical option pricing schemes assume that the value of a financial asset follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). However, a growing body of studies suggest that a simple GBM trajectory is not an adequate representation for asset dynamics due to irregularities found when comparing its properties with empirical distributions. As a solution, we develop a generalisation of GBM where the introduction of a memory kernel critically determines the behavior of the stochastic process. We find the general expressions for the moments, log-moments, and the expectation of the periodic log returns, and obtain the corresponding probability density functions by using the subordination approach. Particularly, we consider subdiffusive GBM (sGBM), tempered sGBM, a mix of GBM and sGBM, and a mix of sGBMs. We utilise the resulting generalised GBM (gGBM) to examine the empirical performance of a selected group of kernels in the pricing of European call options. Our results indicate that the performance of a kernel ultimately depends on the maturity of the option and its moneyness.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2020

Cooperation dynamics of generalized reciprocity on complex networks

Recent studies suggest that the emergence of cooperative behavior can be explained by generalized reciprocity, a behavioral mechanism based on the principle of "help anyone if helped by someone". In complex systems, the cooperative dynamics is largely determined by the network structure which dictates the interactions among neighboring individuals. Despite an abundance of studies, the role of the network structure in in promoting cooperation through generalized reciprocity remains an under-explored phenomenon. In this doctoral thesis, we utilize basic tools from the dynamical systems theory, and develop a unifying framework for investigating the cooperation dynamics of generalized reciprocity on complex networks. We use this framework to present a theoretical overview on the role of generalized reciprocity in promoting cooperation in three distinct interaction structures: i) social dilemmas, ii) multidimensional networks, and iii) fluctuating environments. The results suggest that cooperation through generalized reciprocity always emerges as the unique attractor in which the overall level of cooperation is maximized, while simultaneously exploitation of the participating individuals is prevented. The effect of the network structure is captured by a local centrality measure which uniquely quantifies the propensity of the network structure to cooperation, by dictating the degree of cooperation displayed both at microscopic and macroscopic level. As a consequence, the implementation of our results may go beyond explaining the evolution of cooperation. In particular, they can be directly applied in domains that deal with the development of artificial systems able to adequately mimic reality, such as reinforcement learning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

On the structure of the world economy: An absorbing Markov chain approach

The expansion of global production networks has raised many important questions about the interdependence among countries and how future changes in the world economy are likely to affect the countries' positioning in global value chains. We are approaching the structure and lengths of value chains from a completely different perspective than has been available so far. By assigning a random endogenous variable to a network linkage representing the number of intermediate sales/purchases before absorption (final use or value added), the discrete-time absorbing Markov chains proposed here shed new light on the world input/output networks. The variance of this variable can help assess the risk when shaping the chain length and optimize the level of production. Contrary to what might be expected simply on the basis of comparative advantage, the results reveal that both the input and output chains exhibit the same quasi-stationary product distribution. Put differently, the expected proportion of time spent in a state before absorption is invariant to changes of the network type. Finally, the several global metrics proposed here, including the probability distribution of global value added/final output, provide guidance for policy makers when estimating the resilience of world trading system and forecasting the macroeconomic developments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2019

Lead-lag Relationships in Foreign Exchange Markets

Lead-lag relationships among assets represent a useful tool for analyzing high frequency financial data. However, research on these relationships predominantly focuses on correlation analyses for the dynamics of stock prices, spots and futures on market indexes, whereas foreign exchange data have been less explored. To provide a valuable insight on the nature of the lead-lag relationships in foreign exchange markets here we perform a detailed study for the one-minute log returns on exchange rates through three different approaches: i) lagged correlations, ii) lagged partial correlations and iii) Granger causality. In all studies, we find that even though for most pairs of exchange rates lagged effects are absent, there are many pairs which pass statistical significance tests. Out of the statistically significant relationships, we construct directed networks and investigate the influence of individual exchange rates through the PageRank algorithm. The algorithm, in general, ranks stock market indexes quoted in their respective currencies, as most influential. In contrast to the claims of the efficient market hypothesis, these findings suggest that all market information does not spread instantaneously.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2019

The Role of Multiplex Network Structure in Cooperation through Generalized Reciprocity

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Cooperation dynamics in the networked geometric Brownian motion

Recent works suggest that pooling and sharing may constitute a fundamental mechanism for the evolution of cooperation in well-mixed fluctuating environments. The rationale is that, by reducing the amplitude of fluctuations, pooling and sharing increases the steady-state growth rate at which the individuals self-reproduce. However, in reality interactions are seldom realized in a well-mixed structure, and the underlying topology is in general described by a complex network. Motivated by this observation, we investigate the role of the network structure on the cooperative dynamics in fluctuating environments, by developing a model for networked pooling and sharing of resources undergoing environmental fluctuations, represented through geometric Brownian motion. The study reveals that, while in general cooperation increases the individual steady state growth rates (i.e. is evolutionary advantageous), the interplay with the network structure may yield large discrepancies in the observed individual resource endowments. We comment possible biological and social implications and discuss relations to econophysics.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2019

Option Pricing with Heavy-Tailed Distributions of Logarithmic Returns

A growing body of literature suggests that heavy tailed distributions represent an adequate model for the observations of log returns of stocks. Motivated by these findings, here we develop a discrete time framework for pricing of European options. Probability density functions of log returns for different periods are conveniently taken to be convolutions of the Student's t-distribution with three degrees of freedom. The supports of these distributions are truncated in order to obtain finite values for the options. Within this framework, options with different strikes and maturities for one stock rely on a single parameter -- the standard deviation of the Student's t-distribution for unit period. We provide a study which shows that the distribution support width has weak influence on the option prices for certain range of values of the width. It is furthermore shown that such family of truncated distributions approximately satisfies the no-arbitrage principle and the put-call parity. The relevance of the pricing procedure is empirically verified by obtaining remarkably good match of the numerically computed values by our scheme to real market data.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2019

Correlation Patterns in Foreign Exchange Markets

The value of an asset in a financial market is given in terms of another asset known as numeraire. The dynamics of the value is non-stationary and hence, to quantify the relationships between different assets, one requires convenient measures such as the means and covariances of the respective log returns. Here, we develop transformation equations for these means and covariances when one changes the numeraire. The results are verified by a thorough empirical analysis capturing the dynamics of numerous assets in a foreign exchange market. We show that the partial correlations between pairs of assets are invariant under the change of the numeraire. This observable quantifies the relationship between two assets, while the influence of the rest is removed. As such the partial correlations uncover intriguing observations which may not be easily noticed in the ordinary correlation analysis.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2019

Cooperation dynamics of generalized reciprocity in state-based social dilemmas

We introduce a framework for studying social dilemmas in networked societies where individuals follow a simple state-based behavioral mechanism based on generalized reciprocity, which is rooted in the principle "help anyone if helped by someone". Within this general framework, which applies to a wide range of social dilemmas including, among others, public goods, donation and snowdrift games, we study the cooperation dynamics on a variety of complex network examples. By interpreting the studied model through the lenses of nonlinear dynamical systems, we show that cooperation through generalized reciprocity always emerges as the unique attractor in which the overall level of cooperation is maximized, while simultaneously exploitation of the participating individuals is prevented. The analysis elucidates the role of the network structure, here captured by a local centrality measure which uniquely quantifies the propensity of the network structure to cooperation, by dictating the degree of cooperation displayed both at microscopic and macroscopic level. We demonstrate the applicability of the analysis on a practical example by considering an interaction structure that couples a donation process with a public goods game.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2018

Economic Complexity Unfolded: Interpretable Model for the Productive Structure of Economies

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. It resides on the premise of hidden capabilities - fundamental endowments underlying the productive structure. In general, measuring the capabilities behind economic complexity directly is difficult, and indirect measures have been suggested which exploit the fact that the presence of the capabilities is expressed in a country's mix of products. We complement these studies by introducing a probabilistic framework which leverages Bayesian non-parametric techniques to extract the dominant features behind the comparative advantage in exported products. Based on economic evidence and trade data, we place a restricted Indian Buffet Process on the distribution of countries' capability endowment, appealing to a culinary metaphor to model the process of capability acquisition. The approach comes with a unique level of interpretability, as it produces a concise and economically plausible description of the instantiated capabilities.

econ.EM↗