Viktoriya Bu-Dager | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Using Machine Learning to Investigate Predictors of Fasting Blood Glucose: Insights into Circadian Timing and Age Interactions

Impaired glucose regulation is a major contributor to metabolic dysfunction and type 2 diabetes. This study developed an interpretable machine-learning framework to predict log-transformed fasting blood glucose using metabolic, hormonal, lifestyle, demographic, nutritional, and circadian variables from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017--2020 pre-pandemic dataset. After merging multiple NHANES sub-datasets, data processing used a leakage-resistant pipeline in which imputation, scaling, and one-hot encoding were performed only after dataset splitting and within training folds. Elastic Net, LASSO, and XGBoost models were evaluated using 94 candidate predictors and engineered circadian interaction terms. Performance was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean squared error, coefficient of determination, calibration, and Shapley Additive Explanations. The final interaction-augmented XGBoost model achieved strong performance on the independent test set, with a mean absolute error of 0.0804, a root mean squared error of 0.1148, and a coefficient of determination of 0.7761, using 10 predictors. Glycohemoglobin was the dominant predictor, followed by insulin, diabetes diagnosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase, age, race, and gender. Among the engineered interaction terms, sleep midpoint multiplied by age was consistently retained in repeated random-split analyses, although its contribution remained modest relative to dominant glycaemic predictors. These findings support further investigation of circadian-age interactions in metabolic health.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Label-Efficient Learning for Ground-Based Sky-Image Classification: A Benchmark of Transfer Learning, Active Learning, and Pseudo-Labeling on GCD

Accurate ground-based cloud classification is important for atmospheric monitoring, solar-energy forecasting, aviation weather assessment, and climate observation systems. However, reliable sky-image annotation is time-consuming, especially when cloud types are visually similar or mixed. We study the label efficiency of deep learning for ground-based cloud classification using the Ground-based Cloud Dataset (GCD). Rather than proposing a new architecture, we benchmark three practical strategies under limited annotation budgets: supervised transfer learning, uncertainty-based active learning, and high-confidence pseudo-labeling. An ImageNet-pretrained ResNet50 is used as a common frozen backbone, with experiments repeated over five random seeds for label budgets from $1\%$ to $100\%$ of the training labels. Supervised transfer learning is already highly label-efficient: test accuracy increases from $0.635 \pm 0.018$ with $1\%$ labels to $0.730 \pm 0.002$ with $40\%$ labels, approaching the full-label result of $0.735 \pm 0.003$. Active learning and pseudo-labeling are competitive with supervised sampling and provide small improvements for some metrics and budgets, but neither gives a large or consistent aggregate gain. Diagnostic analyses show that accepted pseudo-labels are reliable, with accuracy from $0.946$ to $0.977$, but biased toward easier high-confidence sky-type groups. In contrast, uncertainty sampling preferentially queries visually challenging groups, including Mixed and the confusable Stratocumulus and Cumulonimbus groups, but these targeted acquisitions yield only modest gains. Overall, transfer learning substantially reduces annotation requirements for GCD, while simple active and semi-supervised strategies provide limited additional benefit over a strong supervised baseline.

cs.LG↗