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Vinícius Ferraz

Publications and source records attributed to Vinícius Ferraz.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

The Internal Anatomy of Strategic Choice in Large Language Models

Large language models act as strategic agents and models of human choice, yet choosing like a strategic agent does not mean computing like one. We recorded activations from four open-weight models --- dense and mixture-of-experts, including a matched base--instruct pair --- in one-shot play of 144 strict ordinal $2\times2$ games. We followed a prespecified incentive from prompt, through activations, to choice. Dense models mirrored the unadjusted human decline with game complexity. Incentive and choice were detectable in every model, but models differed in whether incentive reached the choice, aligned with it and, where tested, whether strengthening it shifted preference. The base and instruction-tuned Qwen2.5 models chose almost identically at baseline yet differed in whether incentive reached choice. Fixed decision cues were distinguishable internally but changed choices selectively. Similar behaviour can rest on different computation; post-training can reshape the path from represented incentive to decision while leaving behaviour and decodable information largely intact.

cs.AI↗

Extended Scenario Bundle Analysis: A Formal Framework for Strategic Scenario Modeling

Strategic crisis analysis needs representations that combine qualitative expert judgement, explicit interdependence, and auditable update rules without requiring fully specified payoffs or probabilities. Scenario Bundle Analysis (SBA), developed by Amos Perlmutter and Reinhard Selten, provides such a starting point, but the original formulation leaves several database, topology, and update interfaces implicit. This paper presents a formal refinement and extension of the original SBA framework, introducing a two-layer architecture that separates a static scenario database from a dynamic scenario tree system. The extended framework incorporates a richer attitude vocabulary: beliefs, desires, intentions, fears, and coalitional commitments, with expectations treated as doxastic attitudes. It also adds a domain/modifier layer for contextual framing, a topology on admissible scenario spaces\index{Scenario space}, typed assessment-state updates, and multi-criteria evaluation. Mathematical definitions are stated with sufficient precision to support computational implementation.

econ.TH↗