arXiv subjects

Vincent Lemaire

Publications and source records attributed to Vincent Lemaire.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Alert: Learning Trigger Functions for Early Classification of Time Series using Deep-RL

Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) is vital in fields like industrial monitoring and medical triage, where quick and accurate predictions are essential. One of the core challenges lies in the trigger function, which decides when to make a prediction, independently of the classifier itself. Most existing methods rely on handcrafted rules, but can data-driven approaches outperform them? This paper introduces Alert, a Deep-RL framework that learns trigger functions from any state representation. Systematic comparisons on 30 datasets show that the design of the state space significantly influences performance. Building on this, we propose Alert+, a simple yet effective variant that consistently outperforms traditional methods in balancing accuracy and delay within an imbalanced misclassification and exponential delay cost setting. Alert and Alert+ are released to support reproducible research and practical applications.

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arXiv2026

End-to-end Early Classification of Time Series in Non-Stationary Environments

Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) requires making accurate decisions as early as possible in inherently online and evolving environments. Yet, most existing methods assume stationarity and rely on separable designs, where classification and triggering are optimized independently, an assumption that fundamentally limits their adaptability under drift. In this work, we challenge this paradigm and study ECTS under non-stationary conditions. We provide the first systematic comparison between separable and end-to-end approaches across controlled drifting scenarios. Building on Reinforcement Learning, we introduce DQeND, a unified architecture that jointly learns representation, classification, and triggering decisions, while remaining directly comparable to state-of-the-art separable baselines. Across a wide range of drifts, DQeND demonstrates strong robustness across various non-stationary scenarios, consistently outperforming separable baselines. An ablation study further highlights that jointly updating representation and decision modules is critical to these gains. Overall, our results indicate that end-to-end learning can offer improved adaptation capabilities for ECTS in dynamic environments, and motivate further investigation of alternatives to separable designs.

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arXiv2026

Temporal Sepsis Modeling: a Relational and Explainable-by-Design Framework

Sepsis remains one of the most complex and heterogeneous syndromes in intensive care. While deep learning models achieve competitive performance in early sepsis prediction, their decision processes often remain difficult to interpret clinically, and explainability is typically added only through post-hoc methods. We propose an explainable-by-design framework based on a relational approach: temporal EHR data are represented in a relational schema, flattened via MDL-based propositionalisation into compact human-readable features, and classified using a selective Fractional Naive Bayes classifier. Evaluated on MIMIC-III (3,940 patients, 10-fold cross-validation), our approach achieves AUC = 0.983 - competitive with XGBoost (0.985) and CatBoost (0.985), and superior to LSTM (0.945) - with only 98 selected variables and a 1 MB model footprint. Unlike post-hoc methods, interpretability is native and fourfold: univariate, global, local, and counterfactual.

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arXiv2026

Non-Asymptotic Error Bounds for SMC with Biased Proposals: Application to Conditional Diffusion Sampling

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a natural tool for post-hoc conditioning of pretrained generative models, but in many applications the mutation kernels used by the particle system are biased approximations of an ideal Feynman--Kac flow. This paper develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for such SMC samplers. Under forward-smoothing forgetting conditions, we decompose the total error into a kernel bias, measuring the effect of replacing the ideal transition kernels by approximate ones, and a finite-particle Monte Carlo error. Our approach relies on extending local Doeblin-type conditions and Lyapunov drift arguments for Markov kernels to conditional distributions, thereby enabling a principled control of the bias. We then instantiate this general framework for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models, and derive the first non-asymptotic error bound that jointly controls initialization error, time discretization, and score approximation in the reverse diffusion dynamics as well as finite-particle Monte Carlo error.

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arXiv2026

On Forgetting and Stability of Score-based Generative models

Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning. This paper provides quantitative bounds on the sampling error of score-based generative models by leveraging stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain associated with the reverse-time dynamics. Under weak assumptions, we provide the two structural properties to ensure the propagation of initialization and discretization errors of the backward process: a Lyapunov drift condition and a Doeblin-type minorization condition. A practical consequence is quantitative stability of the sampling procedure, as the reverse diffusion dynamics induces a contraction mechanism along the sampling trajectory. Our results clarify the role of stochastic dynamics in score-based models and provide a principled framework for analyzing propagation of errors in such approaches.

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arXiv2026

Early Classification of Time Series in Non-Stationary Cost Regimes

Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) addresses decision-making problems in which predictions must be made as early as possible while maintaining high accuracy. Most existing ECTS methods assume that the time-dependent decision costs governing the learning objective are known, fixed, and correctly specified. In practice, however, these costs are often uncertain and may change over time, leading to mismatches between training-time and deployment-time objectives. In this paper, we study ECTS under two practically relevant forms of cost non-stationarity: drift in the balance between misclassification and decision delay costs, and stochastic realizations of decision costs that deviate from the nominal training-time model. To address these challenges, we revisit representative ECTS approaches and adapt them to an online learning setting. Focusing on separable methods, we update only the triggering model during deployment, while keeping the classifier fixed. We propose several online adaptations and baselines, including bandit-based and RL-based approaches, and conduct controlled experiments on synthetic data to systematically evaluate robustness under cost non-stationarity. Our results demonstrate that online learning can effectively improve the robustness of ECTS methods to cost drift, with RL-based strategies exhibiting strong and stable performance across varying cost regimes.

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arXiv2025

Early Classification of Time Series: A Survey and Benchmark

In many situations, the measurements of a studied phenomenon are provided sequentially, and the prediction of its class needs to be made as early as possible so as not to incur too high a time penalty, but not too early and risk paying the cost of misclassification. This problem has been particularly studied in the case of time series, and is known as Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS). Although it has been the subject of a growing body of literature, there is still a lack of a systematic, shared evaluation protocol to compare the relative merits of the various existing methods. In this paper, we highlight the two components of an ECTS system: decision and prediction, and focus on the approaches that separate them. This document begins by situating these methods within a principle-based taxonomy. It defines dimensions for organizing their evaluation and then reports the results of a very extensive set of experiments along these dimensions involving nine state-of-the-art ECTS algorithms. In addition, these and other experiments can be carried out using an open-source library in which most of the existing ECTS algorithms have been implemented (see https://github.com/ML-EDM/ml_edm).

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arXiv2025

Wasserstein Convergence of Critically Damped Langevin Diffusions

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved impressive performance in data generation across a wide range of applications and benefit from strong theoretical guarantees. Recently, methods inspired by statistical mechanics, in particular, Hamiltonian dynamics, have introduced Critically-damped Langevin Diffusions (CLDs), which define diffusion processes on extended spaces by coupling the data with auxiliary variables. These approaches, along with their associated score-matching and sampling procedures, have been shown to outperform standard diffusion-based samplers numerically. In this paper, we analyze a generalized dynamic that extends classical CLDs by introducing an additional hyperparameter controlling the noise applied to the data coordinate, thereby better exploiting the extended space. We further derive a novel upper bound on the sampling error of CLD-based generative models in the Wasserstein metric. This additional hyperparameter influences the smoothness of sample paths, and our discretization error analysis provides practical guidance for its tuning, leading to improved sampling performance.

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arXiv2025

Calibration improves detection of mislabeled examples

Mislabeled data is a pervasive issue that undermines the performance of machine learning systems in real-world applications. An effective approach to mitigate this problem is to detect mislabeled instances and subject them to special treatment, such as filtering or relabeling. Automatic mislabeling detection methods typically rely on training a base machine learning model and then probing it for each instance to obtain a trust score that each provided label is genuine or incorrect. The properties of this base model are thus of paramount importance. In this paper, we investigate the impact of calibrating this model. Our empirical results show that using calibration methods improves the accuracy and robustness of mislabeled instance detection, providing a practical and effective solution for industrial applications.

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arXiv2025

Khiops: An End-to-End, Frugal AutoML and XAI Machine Learning Solution for Large, Multi-Table Databases

Khiops is an open source machine learning tool designed for mining large multi-table databases. Khiops is based on a unique Bayesian approach that has attracted academic interest with more than 20 publications on topics such as variable selection, classification, decision trees and co-clustering. It provides a predictive measure of variable importance using discretisation models for numerical data and value clustering for categorical data. The proposed classification/regression model is a naive Bayesian classifier incorporating variable selection and weight learning. In the case of multi-table databases, it provides propositionalisation by automatically constructing aggregates. Khiops is adapted to the analysis of large databases with millions of individuals, tens of thousands of variables and hundreds of millions of records in secondary tables. It is available on many environments, both from a Python library and via a user interface.

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arXiv2025

Optimized Multi-Level Monte Carlo Parametrization and Antithetic Sampling for Nested Simulations

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) techniques and their weighted variants are typically more efficient, their effectiveness tends to deteriorate when dealing with irregular functions, notably indicator functions, which are intrinsic to these risk measures. We address this issue by introducing a novel MLMC parametrization that significantly improves performance in practical, non-asymptotic settings while maintaining theoretical asymptotic guarantees. We also prove that antithetic sampling of MLMC levels enhances efficiency regardless of the regularity of the underlying function. Numerical experiments motivated by the calculation of economic capital in a life insurance context confirm the practical value of our approach for estimating loss probabilities and quantiles, bridging theoretical advances and practical requirements in financial risk estimation.

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arXiv2025

An analysis of the noise schedule for score-based generative models

Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at estimating a target data distribution by learning score functions using only noise-perturbed samples from the target.Recent literature has focused extensively on assessing the error between the target and estimated distributions, gauging the generative quality through the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distances. Under mild assumptions on the data distribution, we establish an upper bound for the KL divergence between the target and the estimated distributions, explicitly depending on any time-dependent noise schedule. Under additional regularity assumptions, taking advantage of favorable underlying contraction mechanisms, we provide a tighter error bound in Wasserstein distance compared to state-of-the-art results. In addition to being tractable, this upper bound jointly incorporates properties of the target distribution and SGM hyperparameters that need to be tuned during training. Finally, we illustrate these bounds through numerical experiments using simulated and CIFAR-10 datasets, identifying an optimal range of noise schedules within a parametric family.

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arXiv2025

Unsupervised Feature Construction for Anomaly Detection in Time Series -- An Evaluation

To detect anomalies with precision and without prior knowledge in time series, is it better to build a detector from the initial temporal representation, or to compute a new (tabular) representation using an existing automatic variable construction library? In this article, we address this question by conducting an in-depth experimental study for two popular detectors (Isolation Forest and Local Outlier Factor). The obtained results, for 5 different datasets, show that the new representation, computed using the tsfresh library, allows Isolation Forest to significantly improve its performance.

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arXiv2024

A new Input Convex Neural Network with application to options pricing

We introduce a new class of neural networks designed to be convex functions of their inputs, leveraging the principle that any convex function can be represented as the supremum of the affine functions it dominates. These neural networks, inherently convex with respect to their inputs, are particularly well-suited for approximating the prices of options with convex payoffs. We detail the architecture of this, and establish theoretical convergence bounds that validate its approximation capabilities. We also introduce a \emph{scrambling} phase to improve the training of these networks. Finally, we demonstrate numerically the effectiveness of these networks in estimating prices for three types of options with convex payoffs: Basket, Bermudan, and Swing options.

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arXiv2024

Mislabeled examples detection viewed as probing machine learning models: concepts, survey and extensive benchmark

Mislabeled examples are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning datasets, advocating the development of techniques for automatic detection. We show that most mislabeled detection methods can be viewed as probing trained machine learning models using a few core principles. We formalize a modular framework that encompasses these methods, parameterized by only 4 building blocks, as well as a Python library that demonstrates that these principles can actually be implemented. The focus is on classifier-agnostic concepts, with an emphasis on adapting methods developed for deep learning models to non-deep classifiers for tabular data. We benchmark existing methods on (artificial) Completely At Random (NCAR) as well as (realistic) Not At Random (NNAR) labeling noise from a variety of tasks with imperfect labeling rules. This benchmark provides new insights as well as limitations of existing methods in this setup.

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arXiv2024

DEMAU: Decompose, Explore, Model and Analyse Uncertainties

Recent research in machine learning has given rise to a flourishing literature on the quantification and decomposition of model uncertainty. This information can be very useful during interactions with the learner, such as in active learning or adaptive learning, and especially in uncertainty sampling. To allow a simple representation of these total, epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties, we offer DEMAU, an open-source educational, exploratory and analytical tool allowing to visualize and explore several types of uncertainty for classification models in machine learning.

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arXiv2024

ml_edm package: a Python toolkit for Machine Learning based Early Decision Making

\texttt{ml\_edm} is a Python 3 library, designed for early decision making of any learning tasks involving temporal/sequential data. The package is also modular, providing researchers an easy way to implement their own triggering strategy for classification, regression or any machine learning task. As of now, many Early Classification of Time Series (ECTS) state-of-the-art algorithms, are efficiently implemented in the library leveraging parallel computation. The syntax follows the one introduce in \texttt{scikit-learn}, making estimators and pipelines compatible with \texttt{ml\_edm}. This software is distributed over the BSD-3-Clause license, source code can be found at \url{https://github.com/ML-EDM/ml_edm}.

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arXiv2024

A Practical Approach to Novel Class Discovery in Tabular Data

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the $k$-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms ($k$-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

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