arXiv subjects

Vincent Wieland

Publications and source records attributed to Vincent Wieland.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

MEmilio -- A high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics

Epidemic and pandemic preparedness with rapid outbreak response rely on timely, trustworthy evidence. Mathematical models are crucial for supporting timely and reliable evidence generation for public health decision-making with models spanning approaches from compartmental and metapopulation models to detailed agent-based simulations. Yet, the accompanying software ecosystem remains fragmented across model types, spatial resolutions, and computational targets, making models harder to compare, extend, and deploy at scale. Here we present MEmilio, a modular, high-performance framework for epidemic simulation that harmonizes the specification and execution of diverse dynamic epidemiological models within a unified and harmonized architecture. MEmilio couples an efficient C++ simulation core with coherent model descriptions and a user-friendly Python interface, enabling workflows that run on laptops as well as high-performance computing systems. Standardized representations of space, demography, and mobility support straightforward adaptations in resolution and population size, facilitating systematic inter-model comparisons and ensemble studies. The framework integrates readily with established tools for uncertainty quantification and parameter inference, supporting a broad range of applications from scenario exploration to calibration. Finally, strict software-engineering practices, including extensive unit and continuous integration testing, promote robustness and minimize the risk of errors as the framework evolves. By unifying implementations across modeling paradigms, MEmilio aims to lower barriers to reuse and generalize models, enable principled comparisons of implicit assumptions, and accelerate the development of novel approaches that strengthen modeling-based outbreak preparedness.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

NoLimits.jl: Flexible and Composable Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Modeling in Julia

Nonlinear mixed-effects models are widely used to analyze longitudinal data, but existing open-source software often supports only a limited subset of the model structures, inference methods, machine-learning components, automatic differentiation techniques, and random-effects distributions required in modern applications. We introduce NoLimits.jl, an open-source Julia package for flexible and composable nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Its macro-based modeling language enables observation and latent-state models to be constructed from diverse building blocks, including ordinary differential equations, Markov models, and neural networks. NoLimits.jl supports flexible, covariate-dependent observation and random-effects distributions and provides a unified interface to frequentist inference through Laplace approximation, stochastic expectation maximization, and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate the package on three case studies showcasing its workflows, integration of differentiable machine-learning components, and data-driven estimation of random-effects distributions using normalizing flows. Together, these capabilities substantially expand the range of nonlinear mixed-effects models that can be specified, estimated, and compared within a single open-source framework.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models in Epidemiological Research

Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters in order to generate fast nowcasts and short-term forecasts that can inform public health decisions. This paper presents a comparison of two advanced Bayesian inference methods: 1) pseudo-marginal particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, using an unbiased likelihood estimate obtained by Particle Filter (PF), and 2) Conditional Normalizing Flows (CNF). We investigate their performance on three commonly used compartmental models: A classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and a two-variant Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model, complemented by an observation model that maps latent trajectories to empirical data. Addressing the challenges of intractable likelihoods for parameter inference in stochastic settings, our analysis highlights how these likelihood-free methods provide accurate and robust inference capabilities. The results of our simulation study further underscore the effectiveness of these approaches in capturing the stochastic dynamics of epidemics, providing prediction capabilities for the control of epidemic outbreaks. Results on an Ethiopian cohort study demonstrate operational robustness under real-world noise and irregular data sampling. To facilitate reuse and to enable building pipelines that ultimately contribute to better informed decision making in public health, we make code and synthetic datasets publicly available.

q-bio.QM↗