arXiv subjects

Viola Priesemann

Publications and source records attributed to Viola Priesemann.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

The winter dilemma

With winter coming in the northern hemisphere, disadvantageous seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 requires high immunity levels in the population or increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), compared to summer. Otherwise intensive care units (ICUs) might fill up. However, compliance with mandatory NPIs, vaccine uptake, and individual protective measures depend on individuals' opinions and behavior. Opinions, in turn, depend on information, e.g., about vaccine safety or current infection levels. Therefore, understanding how information about the pandemic affects its spread through the modulation of voluntary protection-seeking behaviors is crucial for better preparedness this winter and for future crises.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns

The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events, and only moderate restrictions remain necessary. In this equilibrium, daily cases stabilize around ten new infections per million people or less. However, stability is endangered if restrictions are relaxed or case numbers grow too high. The latter destabilization marks a tipping point beyond which the spread self-accelerates. We show that a lockdown can reestablish control and that recurring lockdowns are not necessary given sustained, moderate contact reduction. We illustrate how this strategy profits from vaccination and helps mitigate variants of concern. This strategy reduces cumulative cases (and fatalities) 4x more than strategies that only avoid hospital collapse. In the long term, immunization, large-scale testing, and international coordination will further facilitate control.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Mutational signatures and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Lambda variants

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern endangers the long-term control of COVID-19, especially in countries with limited genomic surveillance. In this work, we explored genomic drivers of contagion in Chile. We sequenced 3443 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between January and July 2021, where the Gamma (P.1), Lambda (C.37), Alpha (B.1.1.7), B.1.1.348, and B.1.1 lineages were predominant. Using a Bayesian model tailored for limited genomic surveillance, we found that Lambda and Gamma variants' reproduction numbers were about 5% and 16% larger than Alpha's, respectively. We observed an overabundance of mutations in the Spike gene, strongly correlated with the variant's transmissibility. Furthermore, the variants' mutational signatures featured a breakpoint concurrent with the beginning of vaccination (mostly CoronaVac, an inactivated virus vaccine), indicating an additional putative selective pressure. Thus, our work provides a reliable method for quantifying novel variants' transmissibility under subsampling (as newly-reported Delta, B.1.617.2) and highlights the importance of continuous genomic surveillance.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission due to vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in the summer. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, but a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects are put into perspective with the economic, social, and health-related consequences and thereby provide a holistic perspective on the future of COVID-19.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2021

Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible...

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Assessing criticality in pre-seizure single-neuron activity of human epileptic cortex

Epileptic seizures are characterized by abnormal and excessive neural activity, where cortical network dynamics seem to become unstable. However, most of the time, during seizure-free periods, cortex of epilepsy patients shows perfectly stable dynamics. This raises the question of how recurring instability can arise in the light of this stable default state. In this work, we examine two potential scenarios of seizure generation: (i) epileptic cortical areas might generally operate closer to instability, which would make epilepsy patients generally more susceptible to seizures, or (ii) epileptic cortical areas might drift systematically towards instability before seizure onset. We analyzed single-unit spike recordings from both the epileptogenic (focal) and the nonfocal cortical hemispheres of 20 epilepsy patients. We quantified the distance to instability in the framework of criticality, using a novel estimator, which enables an unbiased inference from a small set of recorded neurons. Surprisingly, we found no evidence for either scenario: Neither did focal areas generally operate closer to instability, nor were seizures preceded by a drift towards instability. In fact, our results from both pre-seizure and seizure-free intervals suggest that despite epilepsy, human cortex operates in the stable, slightly subcritical regime, just like cortex of other healthy mammalians.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate

Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute to hidden infection chains. Here, we studied a semi-analytical model and identified two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigated how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our model results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

The foreshadow of a second wave: An analysis of current COVID-19 fatalities in Germany

A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death counts hardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reported cases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that this apparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure of the infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the near future, as the spread once again expands into older age groups. To re-establish control, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, case numbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and the protection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latest when the hospital capacity is reached.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Local dendritic balance enables learning of efficient representations in networks of spiking neurons

How can neural networks learn to efficiently represent complex and high-dimensional inputs via local plasticity mechanisms? Classical models of representation learning assume that input weights are learned via pairwise Hebbian-like plasticity. Here, we show that pairwise Hebbian-like plasticity only works under unrealistic requirements on neural dynamics and input statistics. To overcome these limitations, we derive from first principles a learning scheme based on voltage-dependent synaptic plasticity rules. Here, inhibition learns to locally balance excitatory input in individual dendritic compartments, and thereby can modulate excitatory synaptic plasticity to learn efficient representations. We demonstrate in simulations that this learning scheme works robustly even for complex, high-dimensional and correlated inputs, and with inhibitory transmission delays, where Hebbian-like plasticity fails. Our results draw a direct connection between dendritic excitatory-inhibitory balance and voltage-dependent synaptic plasticity as observed in vivo, and suggest that both are crucial for representation learning.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

Self-organization toward criticality by synaptic plasticity

Self-organized criticality has been proposed to be a universal mechanism for the emergence of scale-free dynamics in many complex systems, and possibly in the brain. While such scale-free patterns were identified experimentally in many different types of neural recordings, the biological principles behind their emergence remained unknown. Utilizing different network models and motivated by experimental observations, synaptic plasticity was proposed as a possible mechanism to self-organize brain dynamics towards a critical point. In this review, we discuss how various biologically plausible plasticity rules operating across multiple timescales are implemented in the models and how they alter the network's dynamical state through modification of number and strength of the connections between the neurons. Some of these rules help to stabilize criticality, some need additional mechanisms to prevent divergence from the critical state. We propose that rules that are capable of bringing the network to criticality can be classified by how long the near-critical dynamics persists after their disabling. Finally, we discuss the role of self-organization and criticality in computation. Overall, the concept of criticality helps to shed light on brain function and self-organization, yet the overall dynamics of living neural networks seem to harnesses not only criticality for computation, but also deviations thereof.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

Inferring change points in the COVID-19 spreading reveals the effectiveness of interventions

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they change when first interventions show an effect. By combining an established epidemiological model with Bayesian inference, we analyze the time dependence of the effective growth rate of new infections. Focusing on the COVID-19 spread in Germany, we detect change points in the effective growth rate that correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions. Thereby, we can quantify the effect of interventions, and we can incorporate the corresponding change points into forecasts of future scenarios and case numbers. Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country or region.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Characterizing spreading dynamics of subsampled systems with non-stationary external input

Many systems with propagation dynamics, such as spike propagation in neural networks and spreading of infectious diseases, can be approximated by autoregressive models. The estimation of model parameters can be complicated by the experimental limitation that one observes only a fraction of the system (subsampling) and potentially time-dependent parameters, leading to incorrect estimates. We show analytically how to overcome the subsampling bias when estimating the propagation rate for systems with certain non-stationary external input. This approach is readily applicable to trial-based experimental setups and seasonal fluctuations, as demonstrated on spike recordings from monkey prefrontal cortex and spreading of norovirus and measles.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

Control of criticality and computation in spiking neuromorphic networks with plasticity

The critical state is assumed to be optimal for any computation in recurrent neural networks, because criticality maximizes a number of abstract computational properties. We challenge this assumption by evaluating the performance of a spiking recurrent neural network on a set of tasks of varying complexity at - and away from critical network dynamics. To that end, we developed a spiking network with synaptic plasticity on a neuromorphic chip. We show that the distance to criticality can be easily adapted by changing the input strength, and then demonstrate a clear relation between criticality, task-performance and information-theoretic fingerprint. Whereas the information-theoretic measures all show that network capacity is maximal at criticality, this is not the case for performance on specific tasks: Only the complex, memory-intensive tasks profit from criticality, whereas the simple tasks suffer from it. Thereby, we challenge the general assumption that criticality would be beneficial for any task, and provide instead an understanding of how the collective network state should be tuned to task requirement to achieve optimal performance.

cs.ET↗

arXiv2019

Description of spreading dynamics by microscopic network models and macroscopic branching processes can differ due to coalescence

Spreading processes are conventionally monitored on a macroscopic level by counting the number of incidences over time. The spreading process can then be modeled either on the microscopic level, assuming an underlying interaction network, or directly on the macroscopic level, assuming that microscopic contributions are negligible. The macroscopic characteristics of both descriptions are commonly assumed to be identical. In this work, we show that these characteristics of microscopic and macroscopic descriptions can be different due to coalescence, i.e., a node being activated at the same time by multiple sources. In particular, we consider a (microscopic) branching network (probabilistic cellular automaton) with annealed connectivity disorder, record the macroscopic activity, and then approximate this activity by a (macroscopic) branching process. In this framework, we analytically calculate the effect of coalescence on the collective dynamics. We show that coalescence leads to a universal non-linear scaling function for the conditional expectation value of successive network activity. This allows us to quantify the difference between the microscopic model parameter and established macroscopic estimates. To overcome this difference, we propose a non-linear estimator that correctly infers the model branching parameter for all system sizes.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2019

Tailored ensembles of neural networks optimize sensitivity to stimulus statistics

The dynamic range of stimulus processing in living organisms is much larger than a single neural network can explain. For a generic, tunable spiking network we derive that while the dynamic range is maximal at criticality, the interval of discriminable intensities is very similar for any network tuning due to coalescence. Compensating coalescence enables adaptation of discriminable intervals. Thus, we can tailor an ensemble of networks optimized to the distribution of stimulus intensities, e.g., extending the dynamic range arbitrarily. We discuss potential applications in machine learning.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2019

Does it Swing? Microtiming Deviations and Swing Feeling in Jazz

Jazz music that swings has the fascinating power to elicit a pleasant sensation of flow in listeners and the desire to synchronize body movements with the music. Whether microtiming deviations (MTDs), i.e. small timing deviations below the bar or phrase level, enhance the feeling of swing is highly debated in the current literature. Studies on other groove related genres did not find evidence for a positive impact of MTDs. The present study addresses jazz music and swing in particular, as there is some evidence that microtiming patterns are genre-specific. We recorded twelve piano jazz standards played by a professional pianist and manipulated the natural MTDs of the recordings in systematic ways by quantizing, expanding and inverting them. MTDs were defined with respect to a grid determined by the average swing ratio. The original and manipulated versions were presented in an online survey and evaluated by 160 listeners with various musical skill levels and backgrounds. Across pieces the quantized versions (without MTDs) were rated slightly higher and versions with expanded MTDs were rated lower with regard to swing than the original recordings. Unexpectedly, inversion had no impact on swing ratings except for two pieces. Our results suggest that naturally fluctuating MTDs are not an essential factor for the feeling of swing.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2019

Between perfectly critical and fully irregular: a reverberating model captures and predicts cortical spike propagation

Knowledge about the collective dynamics of cortical spiking is very informative about the underlying coding principles. However, even most basic properties are not known with certainty, because their assessment is hampered by spatial subsampling, i.e. the limitation that only a tiny fraction of all neurons can be recorded simultaneously with millisecond precision. Building on a novel, subsampling-invariant estimator, we fit and carefully validate a minimal model for cortical spike propagation. The model interpolates between two prominent states: asynchronous and critical. We find neither of them in cortical spike recordings across various species, but instead identify a narrow reverberating regime. This approach enables us to predict yet unknown properties from very short recordings and for every circuit individually, including responses to minimal perturbations, intrinsic network timescales, and the strength of external input compared to recurrent activation - thereby informing about the underlying coding principles for each circuit, area, state and task.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2018

Dynamic Adaptive Computation: Tuning network states to task requirements

Neural circuits are able to perform computations under very diverse conditions and requirements. The required computations impose clear constraints on their fine-tuning: a rapid and maximally informative response to stimuli in general requires decorrelated baseline neural activity. Such network dynamics is known as asynchronous-irregular. In contrast, spatio-temporal integration of information requires maintenance and transfer of stimulus information over extended time periods. This can be realized at criticality, a phase transition where correlations, sensitivity and integration time diverge. Being able to flexibly switch, or even combine the above properties in a task-dependent manner would present a clear functional advantage. We propose that cortex operates in a "reverberating regime" because it is particularly favorable for ready adaptation of computational properties to context and task. This reverberating regime enables cortical networks to interpolate between the asynchronous-irregular and the critical state by small changes in effective synaptic strength or excitation-inhibition ratio. These changes directly adapt computational properties, including sensitivity, amplification, integration time and correlation length within the local network. We review recent converging evidence that cortex in vivo operates in the reverberating regime, and that various cortical areas have adapted their integration times to processing requirements. In addition, we propose that neuromodulation enables a fine-tuning of the network, so that local circuits can either decorrelate or integrate, and quench or maintain their input depending on task. We argue that this task-dependent tuning, which we call "dynamic adaptive computation", presents a central organization principle of cortical networks and discuss first experimental evidence.

q-bio.NC↗