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Viraj Karambelkar

Publications and source records attributed to Viraj Karambelkar.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

A luminous dust-obscured Tidal Disruption Event candidate in a star forming galaxy at 42 Mpc

While the vast majority of Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) has been identified by wide-field sky surveys in the optical and X-ray bands, recent studies indicate that a considerable fraction of TDEs may be dust obscured, and thus preferentially detected in the infrared (IR) wavebands. In this Letter, we present the discovery of a luminous mid-IR nuclear flare (termed WTP 14adbjsh) identified in a systematic transient search of archival images from the NEOWISE mid-IR survey. The source reached a peak luminosity of $L \simeq 10^{43} \text{erg s}^{-1}$ at 4.6 $μ$m in 2015, before fading in the IR with a TDE-like $F \propto t^{-5/3}$ decline, radiating a total of more than $ 3\times 10^{51}$ erg in the last 7 years. The transient event took place in the nearby galaxy NGC 7392, at a distance of around 42 Mpc; yet, no optical or X-ray flare is detected. We interpret the transient as the nearest TDE candidate detected in the last decade, which was missed at other wavelengths due to dust obscuration, hinting at the existence of TDEs that have been historically overlooked. Unlike most previously detected TDEs, the transient was discovered in a star forming galaxy, corroborating earlier suggestions that dust obscuration suppresses significantly the detection of TDEs in these environments. Our results demonstrate that the study of IR-detected TDEs is critical in order to obtain a complete understanding of the physics of TDEs, and to conclude whether TDEs occur preferentially in a particular class of galaxies.

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A Systematic Study of Ia-CSM Supernovae from the ZTF Bright Transient Survey

Among the supernovae (SNe) that show strong interaction with the circumstellar medium, there is a rare subclass of Type Ia supernovae, SNe Ia-CSM, that show strong narrow hydrogen emission lines much like SNe IIn but on top of a diluted over-luminous Type Ia spectrum. In the only previous systematic study of this class (Silverman et al. 2013), 16 objects were identified, 8 historic and 8 from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). Now using the successor survey to PTF, the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we have classified 12 additional objects of this type through the systematic Bright Transient Survey (BTS). In this study, we present and analyze the optical and mid-IR light curves, optical spectra, and host galaxy properties of this sample. Consistent with previous studies, we find the objects to have slowly evolving light curves compared to normal SNe Ia with peak absolute magnitudes between -19.1 and -21, spectra having weak H$β$, large Balmer decrements of ~7 and strong Ca NIR emission. Out of 10 SNe from our sample observed by NEOWISE, 9 have $3σ$ detections, along with some showing a clear reduction in red-wing of H$α$, indicative of newly formed dust. We do not find our SN Ia-CSM sample to have a significantly different distribution of equivalent width of He I $\lambda5876$ than SNe IIn as observed in Silverman et al. 2013. The hosts tend to be late-type galaxies with recent star formation. We also derive a rate estimate of 29$^{+27}_{-21}$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for SNe Ia-CSM which is ~0.02--0.2 % of the SN Ia rate. This work nearly doubles the sample of well-studied Ia-CSM objects in Silverman et al. 2013, increasing the total number to 28.

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The Final Season Reimagined: 30 Tidal Disruption Events from the ZTF-I Survey

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) offer a unique way to study dormant black holes. While the number of observed TDEs has grown thanks to the emergence of wide-field surveys in the past few decades, questions regarding the nature of the observed optical, UV, and X-ray emission remain. We present a uniformly selected sample of 30 spectroscopically classified TDEs from the Zwicky Transient Facility Phase I survey operations with follow-up \textit{Swift} UV and X-ray observations. Through our investigation into correlations between light curve properties, we recover a shallow positive correlation between the peak bolometric luminosity and decay timescales. We introduce a new spectroscopic class of TDE, TDE-featureless, which are characterized by featureless optical spectra. The new TDE-featureless class shows larger peak bolometric luminosities, peak blackbody temperatures, and peak blackbody radii. We examine the differences between the X-ray bright and X-ray faint populations of TDEs in this sample, finding that X-ray bright TDEs show higher peak blackbody luminosities than the X-ray faint sub-sample. This sample of optically selected TDEs is the largest sample of TDEs from a single survey yet, and the systematic discovery, classification, and follow-up of this sample allows for robust characterization of TDE properties, an important stepping stone looking forward toward the Rubin era.

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Deep Synoptic Array science I: discovery of the host galaxy of FRB 20220912A

We report the detection and interferometric localization of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB) source FRB 20220912A during commissioning observations with the Deep Synoptic Array (DSA-110). Two bursts were detected from FRB 20220912A, one each on 2022 October 18 and 2022 October 25. The best-fit position is (R.A. J2000, decl. J2000) = (23:09:04.9, +48:42:25.4), with a 90% confidence error ellipse of $\pm2$ arcsec and $\pm1$ arcsec in right ascension and declination respectively. The two bursts have disparate polarization properties and temporal profiles. We find a Faraday rotation measure that is consistent with the low value of $+0.6$ rad m$^{-2}$ reported by CHIME/FRB. The DSA-110 localization overlaps with the galaxy PSO J347.2702+48.7066 at a redshift $z=0.0771$, which we identify as the likely host. PSO J347.2702$+$48.7066 has a stellar mass of approximately $10^{10}M_{\odot}$, modest internal dust extinction, and a star-formation rate likely in excess of $0.1\,M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. The host-galaxy contribution to the dispersion measure is likely $\lesssim50$ pc cm$^{-3}$. The FRB 20220912A source is therefore likely viewed along a tenuous plasma column through the host galaxy.

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India's first robotic eye for time domain astrophysics: the GROWTH-India telescope

We present the design and performance of the GROWTH-India telescope, a 0.7 m robotic telescope dedicated to time-domain astronomy. The telescope is equipped with a 4k back-illuminated camera giving a 0.82-degree field of view and sensitivity of m_g ~20.5 in 5-min exposures. Custom software handles observatory operations: attaining high on-sky observing efficiencies (>~ 80%) and allowing rapid response to targets of opportunity. The data processing pipelines are capable of performing PSF photometry as well as image subtraction for transient searches. We also present an overview of the GROWTH-India telescope's contributions to the studies of Gamma-ray Bursts, the electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave sources, supernovae, novae and solar system objects.

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Candidate Tidal Disruption Event AT2019fdr Coincident with a High-Energy Neutrino

The origins of the high-energy cosmic neutrino flux remain largely unknown. Recently, one high-energy neutrino was associated with a tidal disruption event (TDE). Here we present AT2019fdr, an exceptionally luminous TDE candidate, coincident with another high-energy neutrino. Our observations, including a bright dust echo and soft late-time X-ray emission, further support a TDE origin of this flare. The probability of finding two such bright events by chance is just 0.034%. We evaluate several models for neutrino production and show that AT2019fdr is capable of producing the observed high-energy neutrino, reinforcing the case for TDEs as neutrino sources.

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SRGA J181414.6-225604: A new Galactic symbiotic X-ray binary outburst triggered by an intense mass loss episode of a heavily obscured Mira variable

We present the discovery and multi-wavelength characterization of SRGA J181414.6-225604, a Galactic hard X-ray transient discovered during the ongoing SRG/ART-XC sky survey. Using data from the Palomar Gattini-IR survey, we identify a spatially and temporally coincident variable infrared (IR) source, IRAS 18111-2257, and classify it as a very late-type (M7-M8), long period ($1502 \pm 24$ days) and luminous ($M_K\approx -9.9 \pm 0.2$) O-rich Mira donor star located at a distance of $\approx 14.6^{+2.9}_{-2.3}$ kpc. Combining multi-color photometric data over the last $\approx 25$ years, we show that the IR counterpart underwent a recent (starting $\approx 800$ days before the X-ray flare) enhanced mass loss (reaching $\approx 2.1 \times 10^{-5}$ M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$) episode resulting in an expanding dust shell obscuring the underlying star. Multi-epoch follow-up from Swift, NICER and NuSTAR reveal a $\approx 200$ day long X-ray outburst reaching a peak luminosity of $L_X \approx 2.5 \times 10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$, characterized by a heavily absorbed ($N_{\rm H} \approx 6\times 10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$) X-ray spectrum consistent with an optically thick Comptonized plasma. The X-ray spectral and timing behavior suggest the presence of clumpy wind accretion together with a dense ionized nebula overabundant in silicate material surrounding the compact object. Together, we show that SRGA J181414.6-225604 is a new symbiotic X-ray binary in outburst, triggered by an intense dust formation episode of a highly evolved donor. Our results offer the first direct confirmation for the speculated connection between enhanced late-stage donor mass loss and active lifetimes of the symbiotic X-ray binaries.

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Target of Opportunity Observations of Gravitational Wave Events with Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The discovery of the electromagnetic counterpart to the binary neutron star merger GW170817 has opened the era of gravitational-wave multi-messenger astronomy. Rapid identification of the optical/infrared kilonova enabled a precise localization of the source, which paved the way to deep multi-wavelength follow-up and its myriad of related science results. Fully exploiting this new territory of exploration requires the acquisition of electromagnetic data from samples of neutron star mergers and other gravitational wave sources. After GW170817, the frontier is now to map the diversity of kilonova properties and provide more stringent constraints on the Hubble constant, and enable new tests of fundamental physics. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) can play a key role in this field in the 2020s, when an improved network of gravitational-wave detectors is expected to reach a sensitivity that will enable the discovery of a high rate of merger events involving neutron stars (about tens per year) out to distances of several hundred Mpc. We design comprehensive target-of-opportunity observing strategies for follow-up of gravitational-wave triggers that will make the Rubin Observatory the premier instrument for discovery and early characterization of neutron star and other compact object mergers, and yet unknown classes of gravitational wave events.

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In search of short gamma-ray burst optical counterpart with the Zwicky Transient Facility

The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to $\sim$ 40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10 Fermi-GBM SGRBs during 2018 and 2020-2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field of view optical telescopes in order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, even though more than 10 ground based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selection procedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searching for poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow-up and showing promising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the median limiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event up to $\sim$ 200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energy model. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7 respectively.

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An Infrared Search for Kilonovae with the WINTER Telescope. I. Binary Neutron Star Mergers

The Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) is a new 1 $\text{deg}^2$ seeing-limited time-domain survey instrument designed for dedicated near-infrared follow-up of kilonovae from binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole mergers. WINTER will observe in the near-infrared Y, J, and short-H bands (0.9-1.7 microns, to $\text{J}_{AB}=21$ magnitudes) on a dedicated 1-meter telescope at Palomar Observatory. To date, most prompt kilonova follow-up has been in optical wavelengths; however, near-infrared emission fades more slowly and depends less on geometry and viewing angle than optical emission. We present an end-to-end simulation of a follow-up campaign during the fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA interferometers, including simulating 625 BNS mergers, their detection in gravitational waves, low-latency and full parameter estimation skymaps, and a suite of kilonova lightcurves from two different model grids. We predict up to five new kilonovae independently discovered by WINTER during O4, given a realistic BNS merger rate. Using a larger grid of kilonova parameters, we find that kilonova emission is $\approx$2 times longer-lived and red kilonovae are detected $\approx$1.5 times further in the infrared than in the optical. For 90% localization areas smaller than 150 (450) $\rm{deg}^{2}$, WINTER will be sensitive to more than 10% of the kilonova model grid out to 350 (200) Mpc. We develop a generalized toolkit to create an optimal BNS follow-up strategy with any electromagnetic telescope and present WINTER's observing strategy with this framework. This toolkit, all simulated gravitational-wave events, and skymaps are made available for use by the community.

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R Coronae Borealis and dustless Hydrogen-deficient Carbon stars have different oxygen isotope ratios

R Coronae Borealis (RCB) and dustless Hydrogen-deficient Carbon (dLHdC) stars are believed to be remnants of low mass white dwarf mergers. These supergiant stars have peculiar hydrogen-deficient carbon-rich chemistries and stark overabundances of $^{18}$O. RCB stars undergo dust formation episodes resulting in large-amplitude photometric variations that are not seen in dLHdC stars. Recently, the sample of known dLHdC stars in the Milky Way has more than quintupled with the discovery of 27 new dLHdC stars. We present medium resolution (R$\approx3000$) near-infrared spectra of 20 newly discovered dLHdC stars. We confirm that unlike RCB stars, dLHdC stars do not show strong blueshifted ($>200$ km s$^{-1}$) He I 1.0833 $μ$m absorption, suggesting the absence of strong, dust-driven winds around them. We also present medium resolution (R$\approx3000-8000$) $K$-band spectra for 47 RCB stars. We measure the $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O ratios of 7 dLHdC and 31 RCB stars that show $^{12}$C$^{16}$O and $^{12}$C$^{18}$O absorption bands, and present the largest sample of values of $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O for dLHdC and RCB stars to date. We find that six of the seven dLHdC stars have $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O $<0.5$, while 26 of the 31 RCB stars have $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O $>1$. We conclude that most dLHdC stars have lower $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O than most RCB stars. This confirms one of the first spectroscopic differences between RCB and dLHdC stars. Our results rule out the existing picture that RCB stars represent an evolved stage of dLHdC stars. Instead, we suggest that whether the white dwarf merger remnant is a dLHdC or RCB star depends on the mass ratios, masses and compositions of the merging white dwarfs.

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A strong broadband 21 cm cosmological signal from dark matter spin-flip interactions

In the standard cosmology, it is believed that there are two relatively weak and distinct band-limited absorption features, with the first absorption minima near 20 MHz ($z\sim70$) and the other minima at higher frequencies between 50-110 MHz ($z\sim12-27$) in the global cosmological 21cm signal, which are signatures of collisional gas dynamics in the cosmic dark ages and Lyman-$α$ photons from the first stars at cosmic dawn, respectively. A similar prediction of two distinct band-limited, but stronger, absorption features is expected in models with excess gas cooling, which have been invoked to explain the EDGES signal. In this work, we explore a novel mechanism, where dark matter spin-flip interactions with electrons through a light axial-vector mediator could directly induce a 21cm absorption signal which is characteristically different from either of these. We find generically, that our model predicts a strong, broadband absorption signal extending from frequencies as low as 1.4 MHz ($z\sim1000$), from early in the cosmic dark ages where no conventional signal is expected, all the way up to higher frequencies where star formation and X-ray heating effects are expected to terminate the absorption signal. In the standard cosmology and in excess gas cooling models it is expected that the gas spin temperature as inferred from the absorption signal is a tracer of the gas kinetic temperature. However, in our model we find in certain regions of parameter space that the spin temperature and kinetic temperature of the gas evolve differently, and the absorption signal only measures the spin temperature evolution. Large swathes of our model parameter space of interest are safe from existing constraints, however future searches for short range spin-dependent forces between electrons on the mm to nm scale have the potential to discover the light mediator responsible for our predicted signal.

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AT 2019qyl in NGC 300: Internal Collisions in the Early Outflow from a Very Fast Nova in a Symbiotic Binary

Nova eruptions, thermonuclear explosions on the surfaces of white dwarfs (WDs), are now recognized to be among the most common shock-powered astrophysical transients. We present the early discovery and rapid ultraviolet (UV), optical, and infrared (IR) temporal development of AT 2019qyl, a recent nova in the nearby Sculptor Group galaxy NGC 300. The light curve shows a rapid rise lasting $\lesssim 1$ day, reaching a peak absolute magnitude of $M_V = -9.2$ mag, and a very fast decline, fading by 2 mag over 3.5 days. A steep dropoff in the light curves after 71 days and the rapid decline timescale suggest a low-mass ejection from a massive WD with $M_{\rm WD} \gtrsim 1.2~M_{\odot}$. We present an unprecedented view of the early spectroscopic evolution of such an event. Three spectra prior to the peak reveal a complex, multicomponent outflow giving rise to internal collisions and shocks in the ejecta of an He/N-class nova. We identify a coincident IR-variable counterpart in the extensive preeruption coverage of the transient location and infer the presence of a symbiotic progenitor system with an O-rich asymptotic-giant-branch donor star, as well as evidence for an earlier UV-bright outburst in 2014. We suggest that AT 2019qyl is analogous to the subset of Galactic recurrent novae with red-giant companions such as RS Oph and other embedded nova systems like V407 Cyg. Our observations provide new evidence that internal shocks between multiple, distinct outflow components likely contribute to the generation of the shock-powered emission from such systems.

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Discovery and confirmation of the shortest gamma ray burst from a collapsar

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are among the brightest and most energetic events in the universe. The duration and hardness distribution of GRBs has two clusters, now understood to reflect (at least) two different progenitors. Short-hard GRBs (SGRBs; T90 <2 s) arise from compact binary mergers, while long-soft GRBs (LGRBs; T90 >2 s) have been attributed to the collapse of peculiar massive stars (collapsars). The discovery of SN 1998bw/GRB 980425 marked the first association of a LGRB with a collapsar and AT 2017gfo/GRB 170817A/GW170817 marked the first association of a SGRB with a binary neutron star merger, producing also gravitational wave (GW). Here, we present the discovery of ZTF20abwysqy (AT2020scz), a fast-fading optical transient in the Fermi Satellite and the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) localization regions of GRB 200826A; X-ray and radio emission further confirm that this is the afterglow. Follow-up imaging (at rest-frame 16.5 days) reveals excess emission above the afterglow that cannot be explained as an underlying kilonova (KN), but is consistent with being the supernova (SN). Despite the GRB duration being short (rest-frame T90 of 0.65 s), our panchromatic follow-up data confirms a collapsar origin. GRB 200826A is the shortest LGRB found with an associated collapsar; it appears to sit on the brink between a successful and a failed collapsar. Our discovery is consistent with the hypothesis that most collapsars fail to produce ultra-relativistic jets.

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Bright, months-long stellar outbursts announce the explosion of interaction-powered supernovae

Interaction-powered supernovae (SNe) explode within an optically-thick circumstellar medium (CSM) that could be ejected during eruptive events. To identify and characterize such pre-explosion outbursts we produce forced-photometry light curves for 196 interacting SNe, mostly of Type IIn, detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility between early 2018 and June 2020. Extensive tests demonstrate that we only expect a few false detections among the 70,000 analyzed pre-explosion images after applying quality cuts and bias corrections. We detect precursor eruptions prior to 18 Type IIn SNe and prior to the Type Ibn SN2019uo. Precursors become brighter and more frequent in the last months before the SN and month-long outbursts brighter than magnitude -13 occur prior to 25% (5 - 69%, 95% confidence range) of all Type IIn SNe within the final three months before the explosion. With radiative energies of up to $10^{49}\,\text{erg}$, precursors could eject $\sim1\,\text{M}_\odot$ of material. Nevertheless, SNe with detected precursors are not significantly more luminous than other SNe IIn and the characteristic narrow hydrogen lines in their spectra typically originate from earlier, undetected mass-loss events. The long precursor durations require ongoing energy injection and they could, for example, be powered by interaction or by a continuum-driven wind. Instabilities during the neon and oxygen burning phases are predicted to launch precursors in the final years to months before the explosion; however, the brightest precursor is 100 times more energetic than anticipated.

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Constraining the Kilonova Rate with Zwicky Transient Facility Searches Independent of Gravitational Wave and Short Gamma-ray Burst Triggers

The first binary neutron star merger, GW170817, was accompanied by a radioactivity-powered optical/infrared transient called a kilonova. To date, no compelling kilonova has been found during optical surveys of the sky, independent of gravitational-wave triggers. In this work, we searched the first 23 months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data stream for candidate kilonovae in the form of rapidly evolving transients. We combined ZTF alert queries with forced point-spread-function photometry and nightly flux stacking to increase our sensitivity to faint and fast transients. Automatic queries yielded $>11,200$ candidates, 24 of which passed quality checks and strict selection criteria based on a grid of kilonova models tailored for both binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole mergers. None of the candidates in our sample was deemed a possible kilonova after thorough vetting, catalog cross-matching, and study of their color evolution. The sources that passed our selection criteria are dominated by Galactic cataclysmic variables. In addition, we identified two fast transients at high Galactic latitude, one of which is the confirmed afterglow of long-duration GRB190106A, and the other is a possible cosmological afterglow. Using a survey simulation code, we constrained the kilonova rate for a range of models including top-hat and linearly decaying light curves and synthetic light curves obtained with radiative transfer simulations. For prototypical GW170817-like kilonovae, we constrain the rate to be $R < 1775$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ at 95% confidence level by requiring at least 2 high-significance detections. By assuming a population of kilonovae with the same geometry and composition of GW170817 observed under a uniform viewing angle distribution, we obtained a constraint on the rate of $R < 4029$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$.

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Progenitor, Precursor and Evolution of the Dusty Remnant of the Stellar Merger M31-LRN-2015

M31-2015-LRN is a likely stellar merger discovered in the Andromeda Galaxy in 2015. We present new optical to mid-infrared photometry and optical spectroscopy for this event. Archival data shows that the source started to brighten $\sim$2 years before the nova event. During this precursor phase, the source brightened by $\sim$3 mag. The lightcurve at 6 and 1.5 months before the main outburst may show periodicity, with periods of 16$\pm$0.3 and 28.1$\pm$1.4 days respectively. This complex emission may be explained by runaway mass loss from the system after the binary undergoes Roche-lobe overflow, leading the system to coalesce in tens of orbital periods. While the progenitor spectral energy distribution shows no evidence of pre-existing warm dust in system, the remnant forms an optically thick dust shell at $\sim$4 months after the outburst peak. The optical depth of the shell increases dramatically after 1.5 years, suggesting the existence of shocks that enhance the dust formation process. We propose that the merger remnant is likely an inflated giant obscured by a cooling shell of gas with mass $\sim0.2$ M$_{\odot}$ ejected at the onset of the common envelope phase.

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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Mergers

We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run. We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization of 4480 deg^2, median distance of 267 Mpc and false alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 1e-25 per yr. The ZTF coverage had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8mag, and median response time of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UVOIR photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and 3 radio. We find no promising kilonova (radioactivity-powered counterpart) and we convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as GW170817 at discovery (-16.1mag), we calculate our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6mag (extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at 1 mag/day (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6mag assuming flat (fading) evolution, at 90% confidence. If we further account for the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have Mej < 0.03 Msun or Xlan>1e-4 or phi>30deg to be consistent with our limits. (Abridged)

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