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Vishesh Karwa

Publications and source records attributed to Vishesh Karwa.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Dynamic causal inference with time series data

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing persistence and transition laws. Our framework treats potential outcomes as entire trajectories, enabling causal estimands, identification conditions, and estimators to be formulated directly on path space. The resulting Dynamic Average Treatment Effect (DATE) characterizes how causal effects evolve through time and reduces to the classical average treatment effect under one period of time. For observational data, we derive a dynamic inverse-probability weighting estimator that is unbiased under dynamic ignorability and positivity. When treated units are scarce, we show that conditional mean trajectories underlying the DATE admit a linear state-space representation, yielding a dynamic linear model implementation. Simulations demonstrate that modeling time as intrinsic to the causal mechanism exposes dynamic effects that static methods systematically misestimate. An empirical study of COVID-19 lockdowns illustrates the framework's practical value for estimating and decomposing treatment effects.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2025

On the admissibility of Horvitz-Thompson estimator for estimating causal effects under network interference

The Horvitz-Thompson (H-T) estimator is widely used for estimating network causal effects. We study its optimality properties by embedding it in the class of all linear estimators. We show that, under any form of interference, the H-T estimator is inadmissible with respect to mean squared error for designs that generate a random number of units for a given treatment-exposure combination, which includes completely randomized and Bernoulli designs. In contrast, the Hajek and Ratio estimators are admissible under such designs as long as their weights exceed one. We show that the H-T estimator becomes admissible under restricted randomization schemes that fix treatment-exposure counts. These findings motivate a new estimator, the conditional horvitz-Thompson (CHT) estimator, which uses propensity scores conditional on the realized number of units in each treatment-exposure combination. We prove that the CHT estimator is unbiased and admissible for network causal effects, for any design, within the class of linear estimators. Because computing conditional propensity scores can be challenging in practice, we develop three practical approximations: an MCMC approximation and two closed-form approximations based on the difference-in-means and Ratio estimators, the first one avoids computing any propensity scores. Numerical experiments on the Add Health network illustrate the theoretical results.

math.ST↗
arXiv2025

Non-asymptotic goodness-of-fit tests and model selection in valued stochastic blockmodels

A valued stochastic blockmodel (SBM) is a general way to view networked data in which nodes are grouped into blocks and links between them are measured by counts or labels. This family allows for varying dyad sampling schemes, thereby including the classical, Poisson, and labeled SBMs, as well as those in which some edge observations are censored. This paper addresses the question of testing goodness-of-fit of such non-Bernoulli SBMs, focusing in particular on finite-sample tests. We derive explicit Markov bases moves necessary to generate samples from reference distributions and define goodness-of-fit statistics for determining model fit, comparable to those in the literature for related model families. For the labeled SBM, which includes in particular the censored-edge model, we study the asymptotic behavior of said statistics. One of the main purposes of testing goodness-of-fit of an SBM is to determine whether block membership of the nodes influences network formation. Power and Type 1 error rates are verified on simulated data. Additionally, we discuss the use of asymptotic results in selecting the number of blocks under the latent-block modeling assumption. The method derived for Poisson SBM is applied to ecological networks of host-parasite interactions. Our data analysis conclusions differ in selecting the number of blocks for the species from previous results in the literature.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Monte Carlo goodness-of-fit tests for degree corrected and related stochastic blockmodels

We construct Bayesian and frequentist finite-sample goodness-of-fit tests for three different variants of the stochastic blockmodel for network data. Since all of the stochastic blockmodel variants are log-linear in form when block assignments are known, the tests for the \emph{latent} block model versions combine a block membership estimator with the algebraic statistics machinery for testing goodness-of-fit in log-linear models. We describe Markov bases and marginal polytopes of the variants of the stochastic blockmodel, and discuss how both facilitate the development of goodness-of-fit tests and understanding of model behavior. The general testing methodology developed here extends to any finite mixture of log-linear models on discrete data, and as such is the first application of the algebraic statistics machinery for latent-variable models.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

New directions in algebraic statistics: Three challenges from 2023

In the last quarter of a century, algebraic statistics has established itself as an expanding field which uses multilinear algebra, commutative algebra, computational algebra, geometry, and combinatorics to tackle problems in mathematical statistics. These developments have found applications in a growing number of areas, including biology, neuroscience, economics, and social sciences. Naturally, new connections continue to be made with other areas of mathematics and statistics. This paper outlines three such connections: to statistical models used in educational testing, to a classification problem for a family of nonparametric regression models, and to phase transition phenomena under uniform sampling of contingency tables. We illustrate the motivating problems, each of which is for algebraic statistics a new direction, and demonstrate an enhancement of related methodologies.

math.ST↗
arXiv2022

DERGMs: Degeneracy-restricted exponential random graph models

Exponential random graph models, or ERGMs, are a flexible and general class of models for modeling dependent data. While the early literature has shown them to be powerful in capturing many network features of interest, recent work highlights difficulties related to the models' ill behavior, such as most of the probability mass being concentrated on a very small subset of the parameter space. This behavior limits both the applicability of an ERGM as a model for real data and inference and parameter estimation via the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. To address this problem, we propose a new exponential family of models for random graphs that build on the standard ERGM framework. Specifically, we solve the problem of computational intractability and `degenerate' model behavior by an interpretable support restriction. We introduce a new parameter based on the graph-theoretic notion of degeneracy, a measure of sparsity whose value is commonly low in real-worlds networks. The new model family is supported on the sample space of graphs with bounded degeneracy and is called degeneracy-restricted ERGMs, or DERGMs for short. Since DERGMs generalize ERGMs -- the latter is obtained from the former by setting the degeneracy parameter to be maximal -- they inherit good theoretical properties, while at the same time place their mass more uniformly over realistic graphs. The support restriction allows the use of new (and fast) Monte Carlo methods for inference, thus making the models scalable and computationally tractable. We study various theoretical properties of DERGMs and illustrate how the support restriction improves the model behavior. We also present a fast Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation that avoids many issues faced by Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms used for inference in ERGMs.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2019

Algebraic statistics, tables, and networks: The Fienberg advantage

Stephen Fienberg's affinity for contingency table problems and reinterpreting models with a fresh look gave rise to a new approach for hypothesis testing of network models that are linear exponential families. We outline his vision and influence in this fundamental problem, as well as generalizations to multigraphs and hypergraphs.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2018

A systematic investigation of classical causal inference strategies under mis-specification due to network interference

We systematically investigate issues due to mis-specification that arise in estimating causal effects when (treatment) interference is informed by a network available pre-intervention, i.e., in situations where the outcome of a unit may depend on the treatment assigned to other units. We develop theory for several forms of interference through the concept of exposure neighborhood, and develop the corresponding semi-parametric representation for potential outcomes as a function of the exposure neighborhood. Using this representation, we extend the definition of two popular classes of causal estimands, marginal and average causal effects, to the case of network interference. We characterize the bias and variance one incurs when combining classical randomization strategies (namely, Bernoulli, Completely Randomized, and Cluster Randomized designs) and estimators (namely, difference-in-means and Horvitz-Thompson) used to estimate average treatment effect and on the total treatment effect, under misspecification due to interference. We illustrate how difference-in-means estimators can have arbitrarily large bias when estimating average causal effects, depending on the form and strength of interference, which is unknown at design stage. Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimators are unbiased when the correct weights are specified. Here, we derive the HT weights for unbiased estimation of different estimands, and illustrate how they depend on the design, the form of interference, which is unknown at design stage, and the estimand. More importantly, we show that HT estimators are in-admissible for a large class of randomization strategies, in the presence of interference. We develop new model-assisted and model-dependent strategies to improve HT estimators, and we develop new randomization strategies for estimating the average treatment effect and total treatment effect.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2017

Finite Sample Differentially Private Confidence Intervals

We study the problem of estimating finite sample confidence intervals of the mean of a normal population under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider both the known and unknown variance cases and construct differentially private algorithms to estimate confidence intervals. Crucially, our algorithms guarantee a finite sample coverage, as opposed to an asymptotic coverage. Unlike most previous differentially private algorithms, we do not require the domain of the samples to be bounded. We also prove lower bounds on the expected size of any differentially private confidence set showing that our the parameters are optimal up to polylogarithmic factors.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2016

Statistical models for cores decomposition of an undirected random graph

The $k$-core decomposition is a widely studied summary statistic that describes a graph's global connectivity structure. In this paper, we move beyond using $k$-core decomposition as a tool to summarize a graph and propose using $k$-core decomposition as a tool to model random graphs. We propose using the shell distribution vector, a way of summarizing the decomposition, as a sufficient statistic for a family of exponential random graph models. We study the properties and behavior of the model family, implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for simulating graphs from the model, implement a direct sampler from the set of graphs with a given shell distribution, and explore the sampling distributions of some of the commonly used complementary statistics as good candidates for heuristic model fitting. These algorithms provide first fundamental steps necessary for solving the following problems: parameter estimation in this ERGM, extending the model to its Bayesian relative, and developing a rigorous methodology for testing goodness of fit of the model and model selection. The methods are applied to a synthetic network as well as the well-known Sampson monks dataset.

math.ST↗
arXiv2016

Sharing Social Network Data: Differentially Private Estimation of Exponential-Family Random Graph Models

Motivated by a real-life problem of sharing social network data that contain sensitive personal information, we propose a novel approach to release and analyze synthetic graphs in order to protect privacy of individual relationships captured by the social network while maintaining the validity of statistical results. A case study using a version of the Enron e-mail corpus dataset demonstrates the application and usefulness of the proposed techniques in solving the challenging problem of maintaining privacy \emph{and} supporting open access to network data to ensure reproducibility of existing studies and discovering new scientific insights that can be obtained by analyzing such data. We use a simple yet effective randomized response mechanism to generate synthetic networks under $ε$-edge differential privacy, and then use likelihood based inference for missing data and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to fit exponential-family random graph models to the generated synthetic networks.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2016

Inference using noisy degrees: Differentially private $β$-model and synthetic graphs

The $β$-model of random graphs is an exponential family model with the degree sequence as a sufficient statistic. In this paper, we contribute three key results. First, we characterize conditions that lead to a quadratic time algorithm to check for the existence of MLE of the $β$-model, and show that the MLE never exists for the degree partition $β$-model. Second, motivated by privacy problems with network data, we derive a differentially private estimator of the parameters of $β$-model, and show it is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed - it achieves the same rate of convergence as the nonprivate estimator. We present an efficient algorithm for the private estimator that can be used to release synthetic graphs. Our techniques can also be used to release degree distributions and degree partitions accurately and privately, and to perform inference from noisy degrees arising from contexts other than privacy. We evaluate the proposed estimator on real graphs and compare it with a current algorithm for releasing degree distributions and find that it does significantly better. Finally, our paper addresses shortcomings of current approaches to a fundamental problem of how to perform valid statistical inference from data released by privacy mechanisms, and lays a foundational groundwork on how to achieve optimal and private statistical inference in a principled manner by modeling the privacy mechanism; these principles should be applicable to a class of models beyond the $β$-model.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2015

Private Posterior distributions from Variational approximations

Privacy preserving mechanisms such as differential privacy inject additional randomness in the form of noise in the data, beyond the sampling mechanism. Ignoring this additional noise can lead to inaccurate and invalid inferences. In this paper, we incorporate the privacy mechanism explicitly into the likelihood function by treating the original data as missing, with an end goal of estimating posterior distributions over model parameters. This leads to a principled way of performing valid statistical inference using private data, however, the corresponding likelihoods are intractable. In this paper, we derive fast and accurate variational approximations to tackle such intractable likelihoods that arise due to privacy. We focus on estimating posterior distributions of parameters of the naive Bayes log-linear model, where the sufficient statistics of this model are shared using a differentially private interface. Using a simulation study, we show that the posterior approximations outperform the naive method of ignoring the noise addition mechanism.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2015

Differentially Private Exponential Random Graphs

We propose methods to release and analyze synthetic graphs in order to protect privacy of individual relationships captured by the social network. Proposed techniques aim at fitting and estimating a wide class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs) in a differentially private manner, and thus offer rigorous privacy guarantees. More specifically, we use the randomized response mechanism to release networks under $ε$-edge differential privacy. To maintain utility for statistical inference, treating the original graph as missing, we propose a way to use likelihood based inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to fit ERGMs to the produced synthetic networks. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed techniques on a real data example.

stat.OT↗
arXiv2011

Causal inference in transportation safety studies: Comparison of potential outcomes and causal diagrams

The research questions that motivate transportation safety studies are causal in nature. Safety researchers typically use observational data to answer such questions, but often without appropriate causal inference methodology. The field of causal inference presents several modeling frameworks for probing empirical data to assess causal relations. This paper focuses on exploring the applicability of two such modeling frameworks---Causal Diagrams and Potential Outcomes---for a specific transportation safety problem. The causal effects of pavement marking retroreflectivity on safety of a road segment were estimated. More specifically, the results based on three different implementations of these frameworks on a real data set were compared: Inverse Propensity Score Weighting with regression adjustment and Propensity Score Matching with regression adjustment versus Causal Bayesian Network. The effect of increased pavement marking retroreflectivity was generally found to reduce the probability of target nighttime crashes. However, we found that the magnitude of the causal effects estimated are sensitive to the method used and to the assumptions being violated.

stat.AP↗