arXiv subjects

Vladimir Kossobokov

Publications and source records attributed to Vladimir Kossobokov.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the weak synchronization of a nonlinear solar dynamo oscillator by coherent planetary timing

The solar cycle is commonly interpreted as an internally generated magnetic oscillation, yet its phase stability and long-term amplitude modulation remain difficult to explain through autonomous dynamo physics alone. We test the narrower hypothesis that the solar dynamo behaves as a self-excited nonlinear oscillator whose phase and envelope may be weakly modulated by coherent astronomical timing. Using historical sunspot numbers, terrestrial length-of-day records, and ephemeris-based planetary descriptors, we identify shared long-period pseudo-cycles across solar, geophysical, and astronomical observables. Singular Spectrum Analysis is used only as a non-parametric decomposition method. We then drive a reduced nonlinear $α$--$Ω$ oscillator with prescribed planetary timing signals. Solar barycentric angular momentum is treated as a mechanically defined ephemeris descriptor, whereas summed planetary right ascension is retained solely as an empirical geometrical phase proxy. We also introduce the physical planetary quadrupolar tidal tensor and use its equatorial off-diagonal component, $2T_{xy}$, as an independent timing descriptor. Forcing by normalized $2T_{xy}$ yields synchronization comparable to, and slightly better than, right ascension: $r=0.660$ and $\mathrm{RMSE}*{z}=0.824$, versus $r=0.655$ and $\mathrm{RMSE}*{z}=0.831$. Planetary forcing is not proposed to power or replace the internal dynamo, but only to provide weak timing. A possible relay involves planetary tides, tachocline magneto-Rossby dynamics, and nonlinear dynamo response. These results do not establish a complete coupling mechanism, but support the possibility that the solar cycle is susceptible to weak astronomical synchronization.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

On the evolution of the concept of probability as a mirror of the evolution of reason

Over the centuries, probability theory has grown from the calculus of games of chance into a central framework for reasoning under uncertainty. This article interprets that evolution not merely as a mathematical history, but as a transformation of rationality itself. From Pascal and Fermat's combinatorial symmetry to the inductive logic of Bayes and Laplace, from Poisson's statistics of events to Kolmogorov's axiomatic formalization, probability progressively incorporated uncertainty, time, and coherence into scientific judgment. This trajectory reaches a mature epistemological form in modern Bayesian inference, especially in Tarantola's view of probability as a logic of information, where prior knowledge and data are combined coherently. Yet this framework also exposes a limit: probability quantifies uncertainty about well-defined propositions, but does not by itself formalize the vagueness of the concepts used to describe them. The article therefore examines how rationality extends beyond probability. Fuzzy logic is presented as a rigorous language for graded meaning and qualitative judgment, while deep learning is analyzed as a distinct, powerful mode of prediction based on geometric interpolation and optimization rather than explicit inference. By situating probability, fuzzy logic, and deep learning in a common historical and epistemological perspective, the article clarifies their roles and limits. It argues that contemporary scientific rationality cannot be reduced to data-driven performance alone, but requires the explicit articulation of uncertainty, vagueness, and inference.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

On a planetary forcing of global seismicity

We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6 since 1900. Using Singular Spectrum Analysis, we decomposed this curve and compared the extracted pseudo-cycles with two global geophysical parameters associated with Earth's tides: length-of-day variations and sea-level changes. Our results reveal that these three geophysical phenomena can be be explained with 90% accuracy, as the sum of up to seven periodic components, largely aligned with planetary ephemerides: 1 year, 3.4 years (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO), $\sim$11 years, $\sim$14 years, $\sim$18.6 years (lunar nodal cycle), $\sim$33 years, and $\sim$60 years. We discuss these results in the framework of Laplace's theory, with a particular focus on the phase relationships between seismicity, length-of-day variations, and sea-level changes to further elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms. Finally,integrating observations from seismogenic regions, we propose a trigger mechanism based on solid Earth-hydrosphere interactions, emphasizing the key role of water-rock interactions in modulating earthquake occurrence.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2016

Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: Preliminary report on the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, 24th August 2016

A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed by means of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, is defined both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The prospective application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous validation of the proposed methodology. The results from real-time testing of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are illustrated with specific reference to the August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake.

physics.geo-ph↗