arXiv subjects

Volker Krätschmer

Publications and source records attributed to Volker Krätschmer.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

First order asymptotics of the sample average approximation method to solve risk averse stochastic progams

We investigate statistical properties of the optimal value of the Sample Average Approximation of stochastic programs, continuing the study in Krätschmer (2023). Central Limit Theorem type results are derived for the optimal value. As a crucial point the investigations are based on a new type of conditions from the theory of empirical processes which do not rely on pathwise analytical properties of the goal functions. In particular, continuity in the parameter is not imposed in advance as usual in the literature on the Sample Average Approximation method. It is also shown that the new condition is satisfied if the paths of the goal functions are Hölder continuous so that the main results carry over in this case. Moreover, the main results are applied to goal functions whose paths are piecewise Hölder continuous as e.g. in two stage mixed-integer programs. The main results are shown for classical risk neutral stochastic programs, but we also demonstrate how to apply them to the Sample Average Approximation of risk averse stochastic programs. In this respect we consider stochastic programs expressed in terms of absolute semideviations and divergence risk measures.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Nonasymptotic upper estimates for errors of the sample average approximation method to solve risk averse stochastic programs

We study statistical properties of the optimal value of the Sample Average Approximation. The focus is on the tail function of the absolute error induced by the Sample Average Approximation, deriving upper estimates of its outcomes dependent on the sample size. The estimates allow to conclude immediately convergence rates for the optimal value of the Sample Average Approximation. As a crucial point the investigations are based on a new type of conditions from the theory of empirical processes which do not rely on pathwise analytical properties of the goal functions. In particular, continuity in the parameter is not imposed in advance as often in the literature on the Sample Average Approximation method. It is also shown that the new condition is satisfied if the paths of the goal functions are Hölder continuous so that the main results carry over in this case. Moreover, the main results are applied to goal functions whose paths are piecewise Hölder continuous as e.g. in two stage mixed-integer programs. The main results are shown for classical risk neutral stochastic programs, but we also demonstrate how to apply them to the sample average approximation of risk averse stochastic programs. In this respect we consider stochastic programs expressed in terms of mean upper semideviations and divergence risk measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Weak continuity of risk functionals with applications to stochastic programming

Measuring and managing risk has become crucial in modern decision making under stochastic uncertainty. In two-stage stochastic programming, mean risk models are essentially defined by a parametric recourse problem and a quantification of risk. From the perspective of qualitative robustness theory, we discuss sufficient conditions for continuity of the resulting objective functions with respect to perturbation of the underlying probability measure. Our approach covers a fairly comprehensive class of both stochastic-programming related risk measures and relevant recourse models. Not only this unifies previous approaches but also extends known stability results for two-stage stochastic programs to models with mixed-integer quadratic recourse and mixed-integer convex recourse, respectively.

math.OC↗

arXiv2016

Statistical inference for expectile-based risk measures

Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show that the corresponding statistical functionals are continuous w.r.t. the $1$-weak topology and suitably functionally differentiable. By means of these regularity results we can derive several properties as consistency, asymptotic normality, bootstrap consistency, and qualitative robustness of the corresponding estimators in nonparametric and parametric statistical models.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Domains of weak continuity of statistical functionals with a view toward robust statistics

Many standard estimators such as several maximum likelihood estimators or the empirical estimator for any law-invariant convex risk measure are not (qualitatively) robust in the classical sense. However, these estimators may nevertheless satisfy a weak (Krätschmer/Schied/Zähle 2012, 2014) or a local (Zähle 2016) robustness property on relevant sets of distributions. One aim of our paper is to identify sets of local robustness, and to explain the benefit of the knowledge of such sets. For instance, we will be able to demonstrate that many maximum likelihood estimators are robust on their natural parametric domains. A second aim consists in extending the general theory of robust estimation to our local framework. In particular we provide a corresponding Hampel-type theorem linking local robustness of a plug-in estimator with a certain continuity condition.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Statistical inference and hypotheses testing of risk averse stochastic programs

We study statistical properties of the optimal value and optimal solutions of the Sample Average Approximation of risk averse stochastic problems. Central Limit Theorem type results are derived for the optimal value and optimal solutions when the stochastic program is expressed in terms of a law invariant coherent risk measure. The obtained results are applied to hypotheses testing problems aiming at comparing the optimal values of several risk averse convex stochastic programs on the basis of samples of the underlying random vectors. We also consider non-asymptotic tests based on confidence intervals on the optimal values of the stochastic programs obtained using the Stochastic Mirror Descent algorithm. Numerical simulations show how to use our developments to choose among different distributions and show the superiority of the asymptotic tests on a class of risk averse stochastic programs.

math.OC↗

arXiv2015

Quasi-Hadamard differentiability of general risk functionals and its application

We apply a suitable modification of the functional delta method to statistical functionals that arise from law-invariant coherent risk measures. To this end we establish differentiability of the statistical functional in a relaxed Hadamard sense, namely with respect to a suitably chosen norm and in the directions of a specifically chosen "tangent space". We show that this notion of quasi-Hadamard differentiability yields both strong laws and limit theorems for the asymptotic distribution of the plug-in estimators. Our results can be regarded as a contribution to the statistics and numerics of risk measurement and as a case study for possible refinements of the functional delta method through fine-tuning the underlying notion of differentiability

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures

When estimating the risk of a P&L from historical data or Monte Carlo simulation, the robustness of the estimate is important. We argue here that Hampel's classical notion of qualitative robustness is not suitable for risk measurement and we propose and analyze a refined notion of robustness that applies to tail-dependent law-invariant convex risk measures on Orlicz space. This concept of robustness captures the tradeoff between robustness and sensitivity and can be quantified by an index of qualitative robustness. By means of this index, we can compare various risk measures, such as distortion risk measures, in regard to their degree of robustness. Our analysis also yields results that are of independent interest such as continuity properties and consistency of estimators for risk measures, or a Skorohod representation theorem for ψ-weak convergence.

q-fin.RM↗