arXiv subjects

Wagner Barreto-Souza

Publications and source records attributed to Wagner Barreto-Souza.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models by assuming a quasi-likelihood approach driven by a latent factor process. More specifically, given the latent process, we only specify the conditional mean and variance of the time series and enjoy a quasi-likelihood function for estimating parameters related to the mean. This proposed methodology has three remarkable features: (i) no parametric form is assumed for the conditional distribution of the time series given the latent process; (ii) able for modelling non-negative, count, bounded/binary and real-valued time series; (iii) dispersion parameter is not assumed to be known. Further, we obtain explicit expressions for the marginal moments and for the autocorrelation function of the time series process so that a method of moments can be employed for estimating the dispersion parameter and also parameters related to the latent process. Simulated results aiming to check the proposed estimation procedure are presented. Real data analysis on unemployment rate and precipitation time series illustrate the potencial for practice of our methodology.

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arXiv2020

Integer-valued autoregressive process with flexible marginal and innovation distributions

INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling limitation is that it is difficult to justify the choice of the operator. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose a new flexible approach to build an INAR model: we pre-specify the marginal and innovation distributions. Hence, the operator is a consequence of specifying the desired marginal and innovation distributions. Our new INAR model has both marginal and innovations geometric distributed, being a direct alternative to the classical Poisson INAR model. Our proposed process has interesting stochastic properties such as an MA($\infty$) representation, time-reversibility, and closed-forms for the transition probabilities $h$-steps ahead, allowing for coherent forecasting. We analyze time-series counts of skin lesions using our proposed approach, comparing it with existing INAR and INGARCH models. Our model gives more adherence to the data and better forecasting performance.

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arXiv2020

Generalized inverse-Gaussian frailty models with application to TARGET neuroblastoma data

A new class of survival frailty models based on the Generalized Inverse-Gaussian (GIG) distributions is proposed. We show that the GIG frailty models are flexible and mathematically convenient like the popular gamma frailty model. Furthermore, our proposed class is robust and does not present some computational issues experienced by the gamma model. By assuming a piecewise-exponential baseline hazard function, which gives a semiparametric flavour for our frailty class, we propose an EM-algorithm for estimating the model parameters and provide an explicit expression for the information matrix. Simulated results are addressed to check the finite sample behavior of the EM-estimators and also to study the performance of the GIG models under misspecification. We apply our methodology to a TARGET (Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments) data about survival time of patients with neuroblastoma cancer and show some advantages of the GIG frailties over existing models in the literature.

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arXiv2020

Bessel regression model: Robustness to analyze bounded data

Beta regression has been extensively used by statisticians and practitioners to model bounded continuous data and there is no strong and similar competitor having its main features. A class of normalized inverse-Gaussian (N-IG) process was introduced in the literature, being explored in the Bayesian context as a powerful alternative to the Dirichlet process. Until this moment, no attention has been paid for the univariate N-IG distribution in the classical inference. In this paper, we propose the bessel regression based on the univariate N-IG distribution, which is a robust alternative to the beta model. This robustness is illustrated through simulated and real data applications. The estimation of the parameters is done through an Expectation-Maximization algorithm and the paper discusses how to perform inference. A useful and practical discrimination procedure is proposed for model selection between bessel and beta regressions. Monte Carlo simulation results are presented to verify the finite-sample behavior of the EM-based estimators and the discrimination procedure. Further, the performances of the regressions are evaluated under misspecification, which is a critical point showing the robustness of the proposed model. Finally, three empirical illustrations are explored to confront results from bessel and beta regressions.

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arXiv2014

Beta and Kumaraswamy distributions as non-nested hypotheses in the modeling of continuous bounded data

Nowadays, beta and Kumaraswamy distributions are the most popular models to fit continuous bounded data. These models present some characteristics in common and to select one of them in a practical situation can be of great interest. With this in mind, in this paper we propose a method of selection between the beta and Kumaraswamy distributions. We use the logarithm of the likelihood ratio statistic (denoted by $T_n$, where $n$ is the sample size) and obtain its asymptotic distribution under the hypotheses $H_{\mathcal B}$ and $H_{\mathcal K}$, where $H_{\mathcal B}$ ($H_{\mathcal K}$) denotes that the data come from the beta (Kumaraswamy) distribution. Since both models has the same number of parameters, based on the Akaike criterion, we choose the model that has the greater log-likelihood value. We here propose to use the probability of correct selection (given by $P(T_n>0)$ or $P(T_n<0)$ depending on the null hypothesis) instead of only to observe the maximized log-likelihood values. We obtain an approximation for the probability of correct selection under the hypotheses $H_{\mathcal B}$ and $H_{\mathcal K}$ and select the model that maximizes it. A simulation study is presented in order to evaluate the accuracy of the approximated probabilities of correct selection. We illustrate our method of selection in two applications to real data sets involving proportions.

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arXiv2013

A skew true INAR(1) process with application

Integer-valued time series models have been a recurrent theme considered in many papers in the last three decades, but only a few of them have dealt with models on $\mathbb Z$ (that is, including both negative and positive integers). Our aim in this paper is to introduce a first-order integer-valued autoregressive process on $\mathbb Z$ with skew discrete Laplace marginals (Kozubowski and Inusah, 2006). For this, we define a new operator that acts on two independent latent processes, similarly as made by Freeland (2010). We derive some joint and conditional basic properties of the proposed process such as characteristic function, moments, higher-order moments and jumps. Estimators for the parameters of our model are proposed and their asymptotic normality are established. We run a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators. In order to illustrate the potentiality of our process, we apply it to a real data set about population increase rates.

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arXiv2013

Bivariate gamma-geometric law and its induced Lévy process

In this article we introduce a three-parameter extension of the bivariate exponential-geometric (BEG) law (Kozubowski and Panorska, 2005). We refer to this new distribution as bivariate gamma-geometric (BGG) law. A bivariate random vector $(X,N)$ follows BGG law if $N$ has geometric distribution and $X$ may be represented (in law) as a sum of $N$ independent and identically distributed gamma variables, where these variables are independent of $N$. Statistical properties such as moment generation and characteristic functions, moments and variance-covariance matrix are provided. The marginal and conditional laws are also studied. We show that BBG distribution is infinitely divisible, just as BEG model is. Further, we provide alternative representations for the BGG distribution and show that it enjoys a geometric stability property. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference are discussed and a reparametrization is proposed in order to obtain orthogonality of the parameters. We present an application to the real data set where our model provides a better fit than BEG model. Our bivariate distribution induces a bivariate Lévy process with correlated gamma and negative binomial processes, which extends the bivariate Lévy motion proposed by Kozubowski et al. (2008). The marginals of our Lévy motion are mixture of gamma and negative binomial processes and we named it ${BMixGNB}$ motion. Basic properties such as stochastic self-similarity and covariance matrix of the process are presented. The bivariate distribution at fixed time of our ${BMixGNB}$ process is also studied and some results are derived, including a discussion about maximum likelihood estimation and inference.

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arXiv2010

A new lifetime model with decreasing failure rate

In this paper we introduce a new lifetime distribution by compounding exponential and Poisson-Lindley distributions, named exponential Poisson-Lindley distribution. Several properties are derived, such as density, failure rate, mean lifetime, moments, order statistics and Rényi entropy. Furthermore, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference for large sample are discussed. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets and we hope that this model be able to attract wider applicability in survival and reliability.

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arXiv2010

The exp-$G$ family of probability distributions

In this paper we introduce a new method to add a parameter to a family of distributions. The additional parameter is completely studied and a full description of its behaviour in the distribution is given. We obtain several mathematical properties of the new class of distributions such as Kullback-Leibler divergence, Shannon entropy, moments, order statistics, estimation of the parameters and inference for large sample. Further, we showed that the new distribution have the reference distribution as special case, and that the usual inference procedures also hold in this case. Furthermore, we applied our method to yield three-parameter extensions of the Weibull and beta distributions. To motivate the use of our class of distributions, we present a successful application to fatigue life data.

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arXiv2010

Improved estimators for dispersion models with dispersion covariates

In this paper we discuss improved estimators for the regression and the dispersion parameters in an extended class of dispersion models (Jørgensen, 1996). This class extends the regular dispersion models by letting the dispersion parameter vary throughout the observations, and contains the dispersion models as particular case. General formulae for the second-order bias are obtained explicitly in dispersion models with dispersion covariates, which generalize previous results by Botter and Cordeiro (1998), Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991), Cordeiro and Vasconcellos (1999), and Paula (1992). The practical use of the formulae is that we can derive closed-form expressions for the second-order biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression and dispersion parameters when the information matrix has a closed-form. Various expressions for the second-order biases are given for special models. The formulae have advantages for numerical purposes because they require only a supplementary weighted linear regression. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with two different estimators which are also bias-free to the second-order that are based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation.

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arXiv2008

The Weibull-Geometric distribution

In this paper we introduce, for the first time, the Weibull-Geometric distribution which generalizes the exponential-geometric distribution proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The hazard function of the last distribution is monotone decreasing but the hazard function of the new distribution can take more general forms. Unlike the Weibull distribution, the proposed distribution is useful for modeling unimodal failure rates. We derive the cumulative distribution and hazard functions, the density of the order statistics and calculate expressions for its moments and for the moments of the order statistics. We give expressions for the Rényi and Shannon entropies. The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed and an algorithm EM (Dempster et al., 1977; McLachlan and Krishnan, 1997) is provided for estimating the parameters. We obtain the information matrix and discuss inference. Applications to real data sets are given to show the flexibility and potentiality of the proposed distribution.

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arXiv2008

Some results for beta Fréchet distribution

Nadarajah and Gupta (2004) introduced the beta Fréchet (BF) distribution, which is a generalization of the exponentiated Fréchet (EF) and Fréchet distributions, and obtained the probability density and cumulative distribution functions. However, they do not investigated its moments and the order statistics. In this paper the BF density function and the density function of the order statistics are expressed as linear combinations of Fréchet density functions. This is important to obtain some mathematical properties of the BF distribution in terms of the corresponding properties of the Fréchet distribution. We derive explicit expansions for the ordinary moments and L-moments and obtain the order statistics and their moments. We also discuss maximum likelihood estimation and calculate the information matrix which was not known. The information matrix is easily numerically determined. Two applications to real data sets are given to illustrate the potentiality of this distribution.

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arXiv2008

Improved estimators for a general class of beta regression models

In this paper we consider an extension of the beta regression model proposed by Ferrari and Cribari-Neto (2004). We extend their model in two different ways, first, we let the regression structure be nonlinear, second, we allow a regression structure for the precision parameter, moreover, this regression structure may also be nonlinear. Generally, the beta regression is useful to situations where the response is restricted to the standard unit interval and the regression structure involves regressors and unknown parameters. We derive general formulae for second-order biases of the maximum likelihood estimators and use them to define bias-corrected estimators. Our formulae generalizes the results obtained by Ospina et al. (2006), and are easily implemented by means of supplementary weighted linear regressions. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with three different estimators which are also bias-free to the second-order, one analytical and the other two based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. We present an empirical application.

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arXiv2008

A Generalization of the Exponential-Poisson Distribution

The two-parameter distribution known as exponential-Poisson (EP) distribution, which has decreasing failure rate, was introduced by Kus (2007). In this paper we generalize the EP distribution and show that the failure rate of the new distribution can be decreasing or increasing. The failure rate can also be upside-down bathtub shaped. A comprehensive mathematical treatment of the new distribution is provided. We provide closed-form expressions for the density, cumulative distribution, survival and failure rate functions; we also obtain the density of the $i$th order statistic. We derive the $r$th raw moment of the new distribution and also the moments of order statistics. Moreover, we discuss estimation by maximum likelihood and obtain an expression for Fisher's information matrix. Furthermore, expressions for the Rényi and Shannon entropies are given and estimation of the stress-strength parameter is discussed. Applications using two real data sets are presented.

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arXiv2008

The Beta Generalized Exponential Distribution

We introduce the beta generalized exponential distribution that includes the beta exponential and generalized exponential distributions as special cases. We provide a comprehensive mathematical treatment of this distribution. We derive the moment generating function and the $r$th moment thus generalizing some results in the literature. Expressions for the density, moment generating function and $r$th moment of the order statistics also are obtained. We discuss estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood and provide the information matrix. We observe in one application to real data set that this model is quite flexible and can be used quite effectively in analyzing positive data in place of the beta exponential and generalized exponential distributions.

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