arXiv subjects

Walter Schachermayer

Publications and source records attributed to Walter Schachermayer.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Theoretical and empirical analysis of trading activity

Understanding the structure of financial markets deals with suitably determining the functional relation between financial variables. In this respect, important variables are the trading activity, defined here as the number of trades $N$, the traded volume $V$, the asset price $P$, the squared volatility $σ^2$, the bid-ask spread $S$ and the cost of trading $C$. Different reasonings result in simple proportionality relations ("scaling laws") between these variables. A basic proportionality is established between the trading activity and the squared volatility, i.e., $N \sim σ^2$. More sophisticated relations are the so called 3/2-law $N^{3/2} \sim σP V /C$ and the intriguing scaling $N \sim (σP/S)^2$. We prove that these "scaling laws" are the only possible relations for considered sets of variables by means of a well-known argument from physics: dimensional analysis. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence based on data from the NASDAQ stock exchange showing that the sophisticated relations hold with a certain degree of universality. Finally, we discuss the time scaling of the volatility $σ$, which turns out to be more subtle than one might naively expect.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2017

The amazing power of dimensional analysis: Quantifying market impact

This note complements the inspiring work on dimensional analysis and market microstructure by Kyle and Obizhaeva [18]. Following closely these authors, our main result shows by a similar argument as usually applied in physics the following remarkable fact. If the market impact of a meta-order only depends on four well-defined and financially meaningful variables, then -- up to a constant -- there is only one possible form of this dependence. In particular, the market impact is proportional to the square-root of the size of the meta-order. This theorem can be regarded as a special case of a more general result of Kyle and Obizhaeva. These authors consider five variables which might have an influence on the size of the market impact. In this case one finds a richer variety of possible functional relations which we precisely characterize. We also discuss the analogies to classical arguments from physics, such as the period of a pendulum.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2017

The Sharp Constant for the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy Inequality and Non-Smooth Pasting

We revisit the celebrated family of BDG-inequalities introduced by Burkholder, Gundy \cite{BuGu70} and Davis \cite{Da70} for continuous martingales. For the inequalities $\mathbb{E}[τ^{\frac{p}{2}}] \leq C_p \mathbb{E}[(B^*(τ))^p]$ with $0 < p < 2$ we propose a connection of the optimal constant $C_p$ with an ordinary integro-differential equation which gives rise to a numerical method of finding this constant. Based on numerical evidence we are able to calculate, for $p=1$, the explicit value of the optimal constant $C_1$, namely $C_1 = 1,27267\dots$. In the course of our analysis, we find a remarkable appearance of "non-smooth pasting" for a solution of a related ordinary integro-differential equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Cover's universal portfolio, stochastic portfolio theory and the numeraire portfolio

Cover's celebrated theorem states that the long run yield of a properly chosen "universal" portfolio is as good as the long run yield of the best retrospectively chosen constant rebalanced portfolio. The "universality" pertains to the fact that this result is model-free, i.e., not dependent on an underlying stochastic process. We extend Cover's theorem to the setting of stochastic portfolio theory as initiated by R. Fernholz: the rebalancing rule need not to be constant anymore but may depend on the present state of the stock market. This model-free result is complemented by a comparison with the log-optimal numeraire portfolio when fixing a stochastic model of the stock market. Roughly speaking, under appropriate assumptions, the optimal long run yield coincides for the three approaches mentioned in the title of this paper. We present our results in discrete and continuous time.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Some Statistics concerning the Austrian Presidential Election 2016

The 2016 Austrian presidential runoff election has been repealed by the Austrian constitutional court. The results of the counted votes had yielded a victory of Alexander van der Bellen by a margin of 30.863 votes as compared to the votes for Norbert Hofer. However, the constitutional court found that 77.769 votes were "contaminated" as there have been -- at least on a formal level - violations of the legal procedure when counting those votes. For example, the envelopes were opened prematurely, or not all the members of the electoral board were present during the counting etc. Hence the court considered the scenario that the irregular counting of these votes might have caused a reversal of the result as possible. The constitutional court sentenced that this possibility presents a sufficient irregularity in order to order a repetition of the entire election. While it is, of course, possible that the irregular counting of those 77.769 votes reversed the result, we shall show that the probability, that this indeed has happened, is ridiculously low.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Portfolio optimisation beyond semimartingales: shadow prices and fractional Brownian motion

While absence of arbitrage in frictionless financial markets requires price processes to be semimartingales, non-semimartingales can be used to model prices in an arbitrage-free way, if proportional transaction costs are taken into account. In this paper, we show, for a class of price processes which are not necessarily semimartingales, the existence of an optimal trading strategy for utility maximisation under transaction costs by establishing the existence of a so-called shadow price. This is a semimartingale price process, taking values in the bid ask spread, such that frictionless trading for that price process leads to the same optimal strategy and utility as the original problem under transaction costs. Our results combine arguments from convex duality with the stickiness condition introduced by P. Guasoni. They apply in particular to exponential utility and geometric fractional Brownian motion. In this case, the shadow price is an Ito process. As a consequence we obtain a rather surprising result on the pathwise behaviour of fractional Brownian motion: the trajectories may touch an Ito process in a one-sided manner without reflection.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Shadow prices, fractional Brownian motion, and portfolio optimisation under transaction costs

We continue the analysis of our previous paper (Czichowsky/Schachermayer/Yang 2014) pertaining to the existence of a shadow price process for portfolio optimisation under proportional transaction costs. There, we established a positive answer for a continuous price process $S=(S_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ satisfying the condition $(NUPBR)$ of "no unbounded profit with bounded risk". This condition requires that $S$ is a semimartingale and therefore is too restrictive for applications to models driven by fractional Brownian motion. In the present paper, we derive the same conclusion under the weaker condition $(TWC)$ of "two way crossing", which does not require $S$ to be a semimartingale. Using a recent result of R.~Peyre, this allows us to show the existence of a shadow price for exponential fractional Brownian motion and $all$ utility functions defined on the positive half-line having reasonable asymptotic elasticity. Prime examples of such utilities are logarithmic or power utility.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

The space of outcomes of semi-static trading strategies need not be closed

Semi-static trading strategies make frequent appearances in mathematical finance, where dynamic trading in a liquid asset is combined with static buy-and-hold positions in options on that asset. We show that the space of outcomes of such strategies can have very poor closure properties when all European options for a fixed date $T$ are available for static trading. This causes problems for optimal investment, and stands in sharp contrast to the purely dynamic case classically considered in mathematical finance.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Strong supermartingales and limits of nonnegative martingales

Given a sequence $(M^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ of nonnegative martingales starting at $M^n_0=1$, we find a sequence of convex combinations $(\widetilde{M}^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ and a limiting process $X$ such that $(\widetilde{M}^n_τ)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ converges in probability to $X_τ$, for all finite stopping times $τ$. The limiting process $X$ then is an optional strong supermartingale. A counterexample reveals that the convergence in probability cannot be replaced by almost sure convergence in this statement. We also give similar convergence results for sequences of optional strong supermartingales $(X^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$, their left limits $(X^n_-)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ and their stochastic integrals $(\intφ\,dX^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ and explain the relation to the notion of the Fatou limit.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Shadow prices for continuous processes

In a financial market with a continuous price process and proportional transaction costs we investigate the problem of utility maximization of terminal wealth. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a shadow price process, i.e.~a least favorable frictionless market leading to the same optimal strategy and utility as in the original market under transaction costs. The crucial ingredients are the continuity of the price process and the hypothesis of "no unbounded profit with bounded risk". A counter-example reveals that these hypotheses cannot be relaxed.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2014

Duality Theory for Portfolio Optimisation under Transaction Costs

For portfolio optimisation under proportional transaction costs, we provide a duality theory for general cadlag price processes. In this setting, we prove the existence of a dual optimiser as well as a shadow price process in a generalised sense. This shadow price is defined via a "sandwiched" process consisting of a predictable and an optional strong supermartingale and pertains to all strategies which remain solvent under transaction costs. We provide examples showing that in the present general setting the shadow price process has to be of this generalised form.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Admissible Trading Strategies under Transaction Costs

A well known result in stochastic analysis reads as follows: for an $\mathbb{R}$-valued super-martingale $X = (X_t)_{0\leq t \leq T}$ such that the terminal value $X_T$ is non-negative, we have that the entire process $X$ is non-negative. An analogous result holds true in the no arbitrage theory of mathematical finance: under the assumption of no arbitrage, a portfolio process $x+(H\cdot S)$ verifying $x+(H\cdot S)_T\geq 0$ also satisfies $x+(H\cdot S)_t\geq 0,$ for all $0 \leq t \leq T$. In the present paper we derive an analogous result in the presence of transaction costs. A counter-example reveals that the consideration of transaction costs makes things more delicate than in the frictionless setting.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

The super-replication theorem under proportional transaction costs revisited

We consider a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset. The super-replication theorem states that there is no duality gap in the problem of super-replicating a contingent claim under transaction costs and the associated dual problem. We give two versions of this theorem. The first theorem relates a numéraire-based admissibility condition in the primal problem to the notion of a local martingale in the dual problem. The second theorem relates a numéraire -free admissibility condition in the primal problem to the notion of a uniformly integrable martingale in the dual problem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Transaction Costs, Shadow Prices, and Duality in Discrete Time

For portfolio choice problems with proportional transaction costs, we discuss whether or not there exists a "shadow price", i.e., a least favorable frictionless market extension leading to the same optimal strategy and utility. By means of an explicit counter-example, we show that shadow prices may fail to exist even in seemingly perfectly benign situations, i.e., for a log-investor trading in an arbitrage-free market with bounded prices and arbitrarily small transaction costs. We also clarify the connection between shadow prices and duality theory. Whereas dual minimizers need not lead to shadow prices in the above "global" sense, we show that they always correspond to a "local" version.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2013

A model-free version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing and the super-replication theorem

We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super-Replication Theorem in a model-independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as options written on this risky asset. As a technical condition, we assume the existence of a traded option with a super-linearly growing payoff-function, e.g., a power option. This condition is not needed when sufficiently many vanilla options maturing at the horizon T are traded in the market.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Transaction Costs, Trading Volume, and the Liquidity Premium

In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread, times share turnover, times a universal constant. Results are robust to consumption and finite horizons. We exploit the equivalence of the transaction cost market to another frictionless market, with a shadow risky asset, in which investment opportunities are stochastic. The shadow price is also found explicitly.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2012

Regularity of affine processes on general state spaces

We consider a stochastically continuous, affine Markov process in the sense of Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer, with cadlag paths, on a general state space D, i.e. an arbitrary Borel subset of R^d. We show that such a process is always regular, meaning that its Fourier-Laplace transform is differentiable in time, with derivatives that are continuous in the transform variable. As a consequence, we show that generalized Riccati equations and Levy-Khintchine parameters for the process can be derived, as in the case of $D = R_+^m \times R^n$ studied in Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer (2003). Moreover, we show that when the killing rate is zero, the affine process is a semi-martingale with absolutely continuous characteristics up to its time of explosion. Our results generalize the results of Keller-Ressel, Schachermayer and Teichmann (2011) for the state space $R_+^m \times R^n$ and provide a new probabilistic approach to regularity.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Asymptotics and Duality for the Davis and Norman Problem

We revisit the problem of maximizing expected logarithmic utility from consumption over an infinite horizon in the Black-Scholes model with proportional transaction costs, as studied in the seminal paper of Davis and Norman [Math. Operation Research, 15, 1990]. Similarly to Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe [Ann. Appl. Probab., 20, 2010], we tackle this problem by determining a shadow price, that is, a frictionless price process with values in the bid-ask spread which leads to the same optimization problem. However, we use a different parametrization, which facilitates computation and verification. Moreover, for small transaction costs, we determine fractional Taylor expansions of arbitrary order for the boundaries of the no-trade region and the value function. This extends work of Janecek and Shreve [Finance Stoch., 8, 2004], who determined the leading terms of these power series.

q-fin.PM↗