arXiv subjects

Wei Biao Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Wei Biao Wu.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Long-term prediction intervals with many covariates

Accurate forecasting is one of the fundamental focus in the literature of econometric time-series. Often practitioners and policy makers want to predict outcomes of an entire time horizon in the future instead of just a single $k$-step ahead prediction. These series, apart from their own possible non-linear dependence, are often also influenced by many external predictors. In this paper, we construct prediction intervals of time-aggregated forecasts in a high-dimensional regression setting. Our approach is based on quantiles of residuals obtained by the popular LASSO routine. We allow for general heavy-tailed, long-memory, and nonlinear stationary error process and stochastic predictors. Through a series of systematically arranged consistency results we provide theoretical guarantees of our proposed quantile-based method in all of these scenarios. After validating our approach using simulations we also propose a novel bootstrap based method that can boost the coverage of the theoretical intervals. Finally analyzing the EPEX Spot data, we construct prediction intervals for hourly electricity prices over horizons spanning 17 weeks and contrast them to selected Bayesian and bootstrap interval forecasts.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Online Covariance Matrix Estimation in Stochastic Gradient Descent

The stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm is widely used for parameter estimation, especially for huge data sets and online learning. While this recursive algorithm is popular for computation and memory efficiency, quantifying variability and randomness of the solutions has been rarely studied. This paper aims at conducting statistical inference of SGD-based estimates in an online setting. In particular, we propose a fully online estimator for the covariance matrix of averaged SGD iterates (ASGD) only using the iterates from SGD. We formally establish our online estimator's consistency and show that the convergence rate is comparable to offline counterparts. Based on the classic asymptotic normality results of ASGD, we construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for model parameters. Upon receiving new observations, we can quickly update the covariance matrix estimate and the confidence intervals. This approach fits in an online setting and takes full advantage of SGD: efficiency in computation and memory.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Testing and estimation of clustered signals

We propose a change-point detection method for large scale multiple testing problems with data having clustered signals. Unlike the classic change-point setup, the signals can vary in size within a cluster. The clustering structure on the signals enables us to effectively delineate the boundaries between signal and non-signal segments. New test statistics are proposed for observations from one and/or multiple realizations. Their asymptotic distributions are derived. We also study the associated variance estimation problem. We allow the variances to be heteroscedastic in the multiple realization case, which substantially expands the applicability of the proposed method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed approach has a favorable performance. Our procedure is applied to {an array based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH)} dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Simultaneous inference for time-varying models

A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to construct simultaneous confidence bands. For practical implementation, we propose a bootstrap based method to circumvent the slow logarithmic convergence of the theoretical simultaneous bands. Our results substantially generalize and unify the treatments for several time-varying regression and auto-regression models. The performance for ARCH and GARCH models is studied in simulations and a few real-life applications of our study are presented through analysis of some popular financial datasets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems, while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing the uncertainties involved in 1) the gathering of teardown data, 2) the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and 3) the need to perform retail price equivalent (RPE) or indirect cost multiplier (ICM) adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle sizes, classes, market segments, and other factors. There is also clear synergism or interaction between the price of certain technologies and other specifications present in the same vehicle. Those (unsurprising) results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and the application of a flat and rigid RPE or ICM adjustment factor should be carefully examined. The findings are based on an extensive database, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, that includes more than 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 over hundreds of vehicle specs.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Long-term prediction intervals of economic time series

We construct long-term prediction intervals for time-aggregated future values of univariate economic time series. We propose computational adjustments of the existing methods to improve coverage probability under a small sample constraint. A pseudo-out-of-sample evaluation shows that our methods perform at least as well as selected alternative methods based on model-implied Bayesian approaches and bootstrapping. Our most successful method yields prediction intervals for eight macroeconomic indicators over a horizon spanning several decades.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Gaussian Approximation for Multiple Time Series

We obtain an optimal bound for a Gaussian approximation of a large class of vector-valued random processes. Our results provide a substantial generalization of earlier results that assume independence and/or stationarity. Based on the decay rate of the functional dependence measure, we quantify the error bound of the Gaussian approximation using the sample size $n$ and the moment condition. Under the assumption of $p$th finite moment, with $p>2$, this can range from a worst case rate of $n^{1/2}$ to the best case rate of $n^{1/p}$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Estimation of dynamic networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series

This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To simultaneously handle these two types of time-varying features, a two-step approach is proposed: multiple change point locations are first identified based on comparing the difference between the localized averages on sample covariance matrices, and then graph supports are recovered based on a kernelized time-varying constrained $L_1$-minimization for inverse matrix estimation (CLIME) estimator on each segment. We derive the rates of convergence for estimating the change points and precision matrices under mild moment and dependence conditions. In particular, we show that this two-step approach is consistent in estimating the change points and the piecewise smooth precision matrix function, under certain high-dimensional scaling limit. The method is applied to the analysis of network structure of the S\&P 500 index between 2003 and 2008.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A supreme test for periodic explosive GARCH

We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating explosive behavior of a strictly stationary GARCH$(r,s)$ (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH process with constant parameters against an alternative where there is an 'abnormal' period with changed parameter values. During this period, the change may lead to an explosive behavior of the volatility process. It is assumed that both the magnitude and the timing of the breaks are unknown. We develop a double supreme test for the existence of a break, and then provide an algorithm to identify the period of change. Our theoretical results hold under mild moment assumptions on the innovations of the GARCH process. Technically, the existing properties for the QMLE in the GARCH model need to be reinvestigated to hold uniformly over all possible periods of change. The key results involve a uniform weak Bahadur representation for the estimated parameters, which leads to weak convergence of the test statistic to the supreme of a Gaussian Process. In simulations we show that the test has good size and power for reasonably large time series lengths. We apply the test to Apple asset returns and Bitcoin returns.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2017

Towards a general theory for non-linear locally stationary processes

In this paper some general theory is presented for locally stationary processes based on the stationary approximation and the stationary derivative. Laws of large numbers, central limit theorems as well as deterministic and stochastic bias expansions are proved for processes obeying an expansion in terms of the stationary approximation and derivative. In addition it is shown that this applies to some general nonlinear non-stationary Markov-models. In addition the results are applied to derive the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates of parameter curves in such models.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Simultaneous Inference for High Dimensional Mean Vectors

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n\in\mathbb{R}^p$ be i.i.d. random vectors. We aim to perform simultaneous inference for the mean vector $\mathbb{E} (X_i)$ with finite polynomial moments and an ultra high dimension. Our approach is based on the truncated sample mean vector. A Gaussian approximation result is derived for the latter under the very mild finite polynomial ($(2+θ)$-th) moment condition and the dimension $p$ can be allowed to grow exponentially with the sample size $n$. Based on this result, we propose an innovative resampling method to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for mean vectors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Regularized estimation of linear functionals of precision matrices for high-dimensional time series

This paper studies a Dantzig-selector type regularized estimator for linear functionals of high-dimensional linear processes. Explicit rates of convergence of the proposed estimator are obtained and they cover the broad regime from i.i.d. samples to long-range dependent time series and from sub-Gaussian innovations to those with mild polynomial moments. It is shown that the convergence rates depend on the degree of temporal dependence and the moment conditions of the underlying linear processes. The Dantzig-selector estimator is applied to the sparse Markowitz portfolio allocation and the optimal linear prediction for time series, in which the ratio consistency when compared with an oracle estimator is established. The effect of dependence and innovation moment conditions is further illustrated in the simulation study. Finally, the regularized estimator is applied to classify the cognitive states on a real fMRI dataset and to portfolio optimization on a financial dataset.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Gaussian Approximation for High Dimensional Time Series

We consider the problem of approximating sums of high-dimensional stationary time series by Gaussian vectors, using the framework of functional dependence measure. The validity of the Gaussian approximation depends on the sample size $n$, the dimension $p$, the moment condition and the dependence of the underlying processes. We also consider an estimator for long-run covariance matrices and study its convergence properties. Our results allow constructing simultaneous confidence intervals for mean vectors of high-dimensional time series with asymptotically correct coverage probabilities. A Gaussian multiplier bootstrap method is proposed. A simulation study indicates the quality of Gaussian approximation with different $n$, $p$ under different moment and dependence conditions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Uniform Convergence of Multivariate Spectral Density Estimates

We consider uniform moment convergence of lag-window spectral density estimates for univariate and multivariate stationary processes. Optimal rates of convergence are obtained under mild and easily verifiable conditions. Our theory complements earlier results which primarily concern weak or in-probability convergence.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Time-varying nonlinear regression models: Nonparametric estimation and model selection

This paper considers a general class of nonparametric time series regression models where the regression function can be time-dependent. We establish an asymptotic theory for estimates of the time-varying regression functions. For this general class of models, an important issue in practice is to address the necessity of modeling the regression function as nonlinear and time-varying. To tackle this, we propose an information criterion and prove its selection consistency property. The results are applied to the U.S. Treasury interest rate data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

$L^2$ Asymptotics for High-Dimensional Data

We develop an asymptotic theory for $L^2$ norms of sample mean vectors of high-dimensional data. An invariance principle for the $L^2$ norms is derived under conditions that involve a delicate interplay between the dimension $p$, the sample size $n$ and the moment condition. Under proper normalization, central and non-central limit theorems are obtained. To facilitate the related statistical inference, we propose a plug-in calibration method and a re-sampling procedure to approximate the distributions of the $L^2$ norms. Our results are applied to multiple tests and inference of covariance matrix structures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Self-normalized Cramér Type Moderate Deviations under Dependence

We establish a Cramér-type moderate deviation result for self-normalized sums of weakly dependent random variables, where the moment requirement is much weaker than the non-self-normalized counterpart. The range of the moderate deviation is shown to depend on the moment condition and the degree of dependence of the underlying processes. We consider two types of self-normalization: the big-block-small-block scheme and the interlacing or equal-block scheme. Simulation study shows that the latter can have a better finite-sample performance. Our result is applied to multiple testing and construction of simultaneous confidence intervals for high-dimensional time series mean vectors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Komlós-Major-Tusnády approximation under dependence

The celebrated results of Komlós, Major and Tusnády [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 32 (1975) 111-131; Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 34 (1976) 33-58] give optimal Wiener approximation for the partial sums of i.i.d. random variables and provide a powerful tool in probability and statistics. In this paper we extend KMT approximation for a large class of dependent stationary processes, solving a long standing open problem in probability theory. Under the framework of stationary causal processes and functional dependence measures of Wu [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102 (2005) 14150-14154], we show that, under natural moment conditions, the partial sum processes can be approximated by Wiener process with an optimal rate. Our dependence conditions are mild and easily verifiable. The results are applied to ergodic sums, as well as to nonlinear time series and Volterra processes, an important class of nonlinear processes.

math.PR↗