arXiv subjects

Wei-Ying Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Wei-Ying Wu.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cluster-Aware Conformal Calibration for Spatio-Temporal Distributional Prediction

DeepKriging-style models, such as Spatio-Temporal DeepKriging, improve scalability through basis-function embeddings and stochastic gradient learning; however, fixed regular-grid spatial bases remain inefficient under highly non-uniform sampling patterns, often over-allocating capacity to sparse regions while under-resolving dense clusters. To address this limitation, we propose a practical extension of DeepKriging for reliable spatio-temporal distributional forecasting, incorporating cluster-adaptive spatial bases - whose centers and scales are initialized from {the spatial sampling density} - to better capture heterogeneous spatial sampling, together with cluster-aware conformal calibration that determines prediction-interval widths within spatial clusters (with a global fallback when calibration samples are insufficient). The resulting calibration pipeline explicitly targets spatial heterogeneity and local miscalibration, and experiments, including simulation studies and PM$_{2.5}$ data analysis, demonstrate substantially improved coverage accuracy and tail reliability under clustered observation patterns compared with a global conformal baseline.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Spatial Adapter: Structured Spatial Decomposition and Closed-Form Covariance for Frozen Predictors

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

DeepKriging on the global Data

The increasing availability of large-scale global datasets has generated a demand for scalable spatial prediction methods defined on spherical domains. Classical spatial models that rely on Euclidean distance representations are inappropriate for spherical data because planar projections distort geodesic distances and spatial neighborhood structures, while traditional kriging-based prediction methods are often computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a Spherical DeepKriging framework for spatial prediction on $\mathbb{S}^2$. The proposed approach constructs a flexible prediction model by integrating thin-plate spline (TPS) basis functions defined intrinsically on the sphere. Simulation studies and real data analyses are presented to demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Regularized Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Errors and its Application to a Biomechanical Model

A biomechanical model often requires parameter estimation and selection in a known but complicated nonlinear function. Motivated by observing that data from a head-neck position tracking system, one of biomechanical models, show multiplicative time dependent errors, we develop a modified penalized weighted least squares estimator. The proposed method can be also applied to a model with non-zero mean time dependent additive errors. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are investigated under mild conditions on a weight matrix and the error process. A simulation study demonstrates that the proposed estimation works well in both parameter estimation and selection with time dependent error. The analysis and comparison with an existing method for head-neck position tracking data show better performance of the proposed method in terms of the variance accounted for (VAF).

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Spatial Regression With Multiplicative Errors, and Its Application With Lidar Measurements

Multiplicative errors in addition to spatially referenced observations often arise in geodetic applications, particularly in surface estimation with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements. However, spatial regression involving multiplicative errors remains relatively unexplored in such applications. In this regard, we present a penalized modified least squares estimator to handle the complexities of a multiplicative error structure while identifying significant variables in spatially dependent observations for surface estimation. The proposed estimator can be also applied to classical additive error spatial regression. By establishing asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator under increasing domain asymptotics with stochastic sampling design, we provide a rigorous foundation for its effectiveness. A comprehensive simulation study confirms the superior performance of our proposed estimator in accurately estimating and selecting parameters, outperforming existing approaches. To demonstrate its real-world applicability, we employ our proposed method, along with other alternative techniques, to estimate a rotational landslide surface using LiDAR measurements. The results highlight the efficacy and potential of our approach in tackling complex spatial regression problems involving multiplicative errors.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Regularized Nonlinear Regression for Simultaneously Selecting and Estimating Key Model Parameters

In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model parameters and fix the remaining parameters to a set of typical values. Our method is formulated as a nonlinear least squares estimator with L1-regularization on the deviation of parameters from a set of typical values. First, we provide consistency and oracle properties of the proposed estimator as a theoretical foundation. Second, we provide a novel approach based on Levenberg-Marquardt optimization to numerically find the solution to the formulated problem. Third, to show the effectiveness, we present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position tracking task for 10 human subjects from limited data. In a simulation study, the variances of estimated parameters are decreased by 96.1% as compared to that of the estimated parameters without L1-regularization. In an experimental study, our method improves the model interpretation by reducing the number of parameters to be estimated while maintaining variance accounted for (VAF) at above 82.5%. Moreover, the variances of estimated parameters are reduced by 71.1% as compared to that of the estimated parameters without L1-regularization. Our method is 54 times faster than the standard simplex-based optimization to solve the regularized nonlinear regression.

stat.ME↗