arXiv subjects

Weichi Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Weichi Wu.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Tractably Modelling Dependence in Networks Beyond Exchangeability

We propose a general framework for modelling network data that is designed to describe aspects of non-exchangeable networks. Conditional on latent (unobserved) variables, the edges of the network are generated by their finite growth history (with latent orders) while the marginal probabilities of the adjacency matrix are modeled by a generalization of a graph limit function (or a graphon). In particular, we study the estimation, clustering and degree behavior of the network in our setting. We determine (i) the minimax estimator of a composite graphon with respect to squared error loss; (ii) that spectral clustering is able to consistently detect the latent membership when the block-wise constant composite graphon is considered under additional conditions; and (iii) we are able to construct models with heavy-tailed empirical degrees under specific scenarios and parameter choices. This explores why and under which general conditions non-exchangeable network data can be described by a stochastic block model. The new modelling framework is able to capture empirically important characteristics of network data such as sparsity combined with heavy tailed degree distribution, and add understanding as to what generative mechanisms will make them arise. Keywords: statistical network analysis, exchangeable arrays, stochastic block model, nonlinear stochastic processes.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Prediction in locally stationary time series

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the currently available methods for this problem the predictor developed here does not rely on fitting an autoregressive model and does not require a vanishing trend. The finite sample properties of the new methodology are illustrated by means of a simulation study and a financial indices study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Identifying shifts between two regression curves

This article studies the problem whether two convex (concave) regression functions modelling the relation between a response and covariate in two samples differ by a shift in the horizontal and/or vertical axis. We consider a nonparametric situation assuming only smoothness of the regression functions. A graphical tool based on the derivatives of the regression functions and their inverses is proposed to answer this question and studied in several examples. We also formalize this question in a corresponding hypothesis and develop a statistical test. The asymptotic properties of the corresponding test statistic are investigated under the null hypothesis and local alternatives. In contrast to most of the literature on comparing shape invariant models, which requires independent data the procedure is applicable for dependent and non-stationary data. We also illustrate the finite sample properties of the new test by means of a small simulation study and a real data example.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Change point analysis in non-stationary processes - a mass excess approach

This paper considers the problem of testing if a sequence of means $(μ_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ of a non-stationary time series $(X_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ is stable in the sense that the difference of the means $μ_1$ and $μ_t$ between the initial time $t=1$ and any other time is smaller than a given level, that is $ | μ_1 - μ_t | \leq c $ for all $t =1,\ldots ,n $. A test for hypotheses of this type is developed using a biascorrected monotone rearranged local linear estimator and asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is established. As the asymptotic variance depends on the location and order of the critical roots of the equation $| μ_1 - μ_t | = c$ a new bootstrap procedure is proposed to obtain critical values and its consistency is established. As a consequence we are able to quantitatively describe relevant deviations of a non-stationary sequence from its initial value. The results are illustrated by means of a simulation study and by analyzing data examples.

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arXiv2018

Change Point Analysis of Correlation in Non-stationary Time Series

A restrictive assumption in change point analysis is "stationarity under the null hypothesis of no change-point", which is crucial for asymptotic theory but not very realistic from a practical point of view. For example, if change point analysis for correlations is performed, it is not necessarily clear that the mean, marginal variance or higher order moments are constant, even if there is no change in the correlation. This paper develops change point analysis for the correlation structures under less restrictive assumptions. In contrast to previous work, our approach does not require that the mean, variance and fourth order joint cumulants are constant under the null hypothesis. Moreover, we also address the problem of detecting relevant change points.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Change point analysis of second order characteristics in non-stationary time series

An important assumption in the work on testing for structural breaks in time series consists in the fact that the model is formulated such that the stochastic process under the null hypothesis of "no change-point" is stationary. This assumption is crucial to derive (asymptotic) critical values for the corresponding testing procedures using an elegant and powerful mathematical theory, but it might be not very realistic from a practical point of view. This paper develops change point analysis under less restrictive assumptions and deals with the problem of detecting change points in the marginal variance and correlation structures of a non-stationary time series. A CUSUM approach is proposed, which is used to test the "classical" hypothesis of the form $H_0: θ_1=θ_2$ vs. $H_1: θ_1 \not =θ_2$, where $θ_1$ and $θ_2$ denote second order parameters of the process before and after a change point. The asymptotic distribution of the CUSUM test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis. This distribution depends in a complicated way on the dependency structure of the nonlinear non-stationary time series and a bootstrap approach is developed to generate critical values. The results are then extended to test the hypothesis of a {\it non relevant change point}, i.e. $H_0: | θ_1-θ_2 | \leq δ$, which reflects the fact that inference should not be changed, if the difference between the parameters before and after the change-point is small. In contrast to previous work, our approach does neither require the mean to be constant nor - in the case of testing for lag $k$-correlation - that the mean, variance and fourth order joint cumulants are constant under the null hypothesis. In particular, we allow that the variance has a change point at a different location than the auto-covariance.

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