arXiv subjects

Weilin Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Weilin Chen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

IADD-TR: Intervention-Aware Dynamics Decoupling with Targeted Regularization for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), which learns environment dynamics to generate synthetic experience, is a promising approach to sample-efficient decision making. Numerous methods have been developed to improve dynamics prediction and policy optimization for MBRL through uncertainty estimation, model regularization, and conservative value learning. However, these methods typically treat the transition model and critic as monolithic predictors, overlooking the policy-induced data bias. Consequently, action can become entangled with environmental evolution, while uneven action coverage may distort the counterfactual value estimates used for policy improvement. To address this, we propose IADD-TR, a unified framework combining Intervention-Aware Dynamics Decoupling (IADD) and Targeted Regularization (TR). IADD factorizes transitions into an action-intervention stage and an action-free natural evolution stage, using a zero-action anchor to resolve the non-uniqueness of this two-stage factorization for robust generalization. Its latent and state-aligned components are identifiable up to an invertible within-block transformation and pointwise, respectively. For policy learning, we derive TR from the efficient influence function of a replay-state policy-gradient functional. TR augments the critic with an action-density-scaled residual correction and optimizes a targeted loss, yielding doubly robust policy-gradient estimation when either the critic or the replay action density is consistently specified. Extensive experiments on five MuJoCo tasks show that IADD-TR achieves competitive returns with improved sample efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CDFM: Towards a General-Purpose Causal Discovery Foundation Model

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust Learning for Debiased Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is fundamental to intelligent education systems, yet relies on educational logs that are selectively observed. The non-random nature of exercise recommendations and student choices inevitably induces severe selection bias. Most existing KT methods neglect this issue, training on observed logs using standard empirical risk, which yields biased mastery estimates and accumulates errors in subsequent recommendations. To address this, we introduce a doubly robust (DR) formulation for KT that integrates a propensity model with an error imputation model, theoretically guaranteeing unbiasedness if either model is accurate. Beyond unbiasedness, in the sequential setting of KT, we identify that the estimator's performance is compromised by variance-dependent stochastic deviations that accumulate over time, thereby causing training instability and limiting performance. To mitigate this, we derive a generalization bound that explicitly characterizes the impact of estimator variance and identifies temporal smoothness as a key factor in controlling it. Building on these theoretical insights, we propose the Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust (TSDR) framework. TSDR jointly optimizes the KT predictor and the imputation model with a smoothness regularizer, effectively reducing variance while preserving the unbiasedness guarantee of DR. Experiments on multiple real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TSDR consistently enhances various state-of-the-art KT backbones, underscoring the vital role of principled bias correction in KT.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CustomTex: High-fidelity Indoor Scene Texturing via Multi-Reference Customization

The creation of high-fidelity, customizable 3D indoor scene textures remains a significant challenge. While text-driven methods offer flexibility, they lack the precision for fine-grained, instance-level control, and often produce textures with insufficient quality, artifacts, and baked-in shading. To overcome these limitations, we introduce CustomTex, a novel framework for instance-level, high-fidelity scene texturing driven by reference images. CustomTex takes an untextured 3D scene and a set of reference images specifying the desired appearance for each object instance, and generates a unified, high-resolution texture map. The core of our method is a dual-distillation approach that separates semantic control from pixel-level enhancement. We employ semantic-level distillation, equipped with an instance cross-attention, to ensure semantic plausibility and ``reference-instance'' alignment, and pixel-level distillation to enforce high visual fidelity. Both are unified within a Variational Score Distillation (VSD) optimization framework. Experiments demonstrate that CustomTex achieves precise instance-level consistency with reference images and produces textures with superior sharpness, reduced artifacts, and minimal baked-in shading compared to state-of-the-art methods. Our work establishes a more direct and user-friendly path to high-quality, customizable 3D scene appearance editing.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Action Learning for Weakly-Supervised Action Segmentation

Humans perceive actions through key transitions that structure actions across multiple abstraction levels, whereas machines, relying on visual features, tend to over-segment. This highlights the difficulty of enabling hierarchical reasoning in video understanding. Interestingly, we observe that lower-level visual and high-level action latent variables evolve at different rates, with low-level visual variables changing rapidly, while high-level action variables evolve more slowly, making them easier to identify. Building on this insight, we propose the Hierarchical Action Learning (\textbf{HAL}) model for weakly-supervised action segmentation. Our approach introduces a hierarchical causal data generation process, where high-level latent action governs the dynamics of low-level visual features. To model these varying timescales effectively, we introduce deterministic processes to align these latent variables over time. The \textbf{HAL} model employs a hierarchical pyramid transformer to capture both visual features and latent variables, and a sparse transition constraint is applied to enforce the slower dynamics of high-level action variables. This mechanism enhances the identification of these latent variables over time. Under mild assumptions, we prove that these latent action variables are strictly identifiable. Experimental results on several benchmarks show that the \textbf{HAL} model significantly outperforms existing methods for weakly-supervised action segmentation, confirming its practical effectiveness in real-world applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

GaussianSwap: Animatable Video Face Swapping with 3D Gaussian Splatting

We introduce GaussianSwap, a novel video face swapping framework that constructs a 3D Gaussian Splatting based face avatar from a target video while transferring identity from a source image to the avatar. Conventional video swapping frameworks are limited to generating facial representations in pixel-based formats. The resulting swapped faces exist merely as a set of unstructured pixels without any capacity for animation or interactive manipulation. Our work introduces a paradigm shift from conventional pixel-based video generation to the creation of high-fidelity avatar with swapped faces. The framework first preprocesses target video to extract FLAME parameters, camera poses and segmentation masks, and then rigs 3D Gaussian splats to the FLAME model across frames, enabling dynamic facial control. To ensure identity preserving, we propose an compound identity embedding constructed from three state-of-the-art face recognition models for avatar finetuning. Finally, we render the face-swapped avatar on the background frames to obtain the face-swapped video. Experimental results demonstrate that GaussianSwap achieves superior identity preservation, visual clarity and temporal consistency, while enabling previously unattainable interactive applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Long-Term Individual Causal Effect Estimation via Identifiable Latent Representation Learning

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent unconfoundedness assumption or additive equi-confounding bias assumption, are proposed to address the latent confounder problem raised by the observational data. However, in real-world applications, these assumptions are typically violated which limits their practical effectiveness. In this paper, we tackle the problem of estimating the long-term individual causal effects without the aforementioned assumptions. Specifically, we propose to utilize the natural heterogeneity of data, such as data from multiple sources, to identify latent confounders, thereby significantly avoiding reliance on idealized assumptions. Practically, we devise a latent representation learning-based estimator of long-term causal effects. Theoretically, we establish the identifiability of latent confounders, with which we further achieve long-term effect identification. Extensive experimental studies, conducted on multiple synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Nonparametric Heterogeneous Long-term Causal Effect Estimation via Data Combination

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data. However, it is still understudied how to robustly and effectively estimate heterogeneous long-term causal effects, significantly limiting practical applications. In this paper, we propose several two-stage style nonparametric estimators for heterogeneous long-term causal effect estimation, including propensity-based, regression-based, and multiple robust estimators. We conduct a comprehensive theoretical analysis of their asymptotic properties under mild assumptions, with the ultimate goal of building a better understanding of the conditions under which some estimators can be expected to perform better. Extensive experiments across several semi-synthetic and real-world datasets validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimators.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of networked effects. However, this assumption is often violated due to the latent confounders inherent in observational data, thereby hindering the identification of networked effects. To address this issue, we leverage the rich interaction patterns between units in networks, which provide valuable information for recovering these latent confounders. Building on this insight, we develop a confounder recovery framework that explicitly characterizes three categories of latent confounders in networked settings: those affecting only the unit, those affecting only the unit's neighbors, and those influencing both. Based on this framework, we design a networked effect estimator using identifiable representation learning techniques. From a theoretical standpoint, we prove the identifiability of all three types of latent confounders and, by leveraging the recovered confounders, establish a formal identification result for networked effects. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Long-term Causal Inference via Modeling Sequential Latent Confounding

Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data. Ghassami et al. propose an approach based on the Conditional Additive Equi-Confounding Bias (CAECB) assumption, which asserts that the confounding bias in the short-term outcome is equal to that in the long-term outcome, so that the long-term confounding bias and the causal effects can be identified. While effective in certain cases, this assumption is limited to scenarios where there is only one short-term outcome with the same scale as the long-term outcome. In this paper, we introduce a novel assumption that extends the CAECB assumption to accommodate temporal short-term outcomes. Our proposed assumption states a functional relationship between sequential confounding biases across temporal short-term outcomes, under which we theoretically establish the identification of long-term causal effects. Based on the identification result, we develop an estimator and conduct a theoretical analysis of its asymptotic properties. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Two Graphs: Resolving the Periodic Reversibility of One-dimensional Finite Cellular Automata

Finite cellular automata (FCA) are widely used in simulating nonlinear complex systems, and their reversibility is closely related to information loss during the evolution. However, only a relatively small portion of their reversibility problems has been solved. In this paper, we perform calculations on two graphs and discover that the reversibility of any one-dimensional FCA exhibits periodicity as the number of cells increases. We also successfully provide a method to compute the reversibility sequence that encompasses the reversibility of one-dimensional FCA with any number of cells. Additionally, the calculations in this paper are applicable to FCA with various types of boundaries. This means that we will have an efficient method to determine the reversibility of almost all one-dimensional FCA, with a complexity independent of cell number.

nlin.CG↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Algorithms for Injectivity and Bounded Surjectivity of One-dimensional Nonlinear Cellular Automata

Nonlinear cellular automata are extensively used in simulations, image processing, cryptography, and so on. The determination of their fundamental properties, injectivity and surjectivity, related to information loss during the evolution, is necessary in various applications. Currently, people still use Amoroso's algorithms for injectivity and surjectivity determinations, but this incurs significant computational costs when applied to complex nonlinear cellular automata. We have optimized Amoroso's surjectivity algorithm, improving its operational efficiency greatly and extended its applicability to various boundaries. Furthermore, we have introduced new theorems and algorithms for determining injectivity, which offer substantial improvements over Amoroso's algorithm in both time and space. With these new algorithms, we are equipped to determine the properties of larger and more complex cellular automata, thereby employing more advanced cellular automata to achieve increasingly complex functionalities.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Doubly Robust Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference via Targeted Learning

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit only one single nuisance function, may still encounter misspecification problems under networked interference without appropriate assumptions on the data generation process. To mitigate bias stemming from misspecification, we propose a novel doubly robust causal effect estimator under networked interference, by adapting the targeted learning technique to the training of neural networks. Specifically, we generalize the targeted learning technique into the networked interference setting and establish the condition under which an estimator achieves double robustness. Based on the condition, we devise an end-to-end causal effect estimator by transforming the identified theoretical condition into a targeted loss. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of our designed estimator, revealing a faster convergence rate compared to a single nuisance model. Extensive experimental results on two real-world networks with semisynthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed estimators.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Long-term Heterogeneous Dose-response Curve: Generalization Bound Leveraging Optimal Transport Weights

Long-term treatment effect estimation is a significant but challenging problem in many applications. Existing methods rely on ideal assumptions, such as no unobserved confounders or binary treatment, to estimate long-term average treatment effects. However, in numerous real-world applications, these assumptions could be violated, and average treatment effects are insufficient for personalized decision-making. In this paper, we address a more general problem of estimating long-term Heterogeneous Dose-Response Curve (HDRC) while accounting for unobserved confounders and continuous treatment. Specifically, to remove the unobserved confounders in the long-term observational data, we introduce an optimal transport weighting framework to align the long-term observational data to an auxiliary short-term experimental data. Furthermore, to accurately predict the heterogeneous effects of continuous treatment, we establish a generalization bound on counterfactual prediction error by leveraging the reweighted distribution induced by optimal transport. Finally, we develop a long-term HDRC estimator building upon the above theoretical foundations. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

From Orthogonality to Dependency: Learning Disentangled Representation for Multi-Modal Time-Series Sensing Signals

Existing methods for multi-modal time series representation learning aim to disentangle the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables. Although achieving notable performances on downstream tasks, they usually assume an orthogonal latent space. However, the modality-specific and modality-shared latent variables might be dependent on real-world scenarios. Therefore, we propose a general generation process, where the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables are dependent, and further develop a \textbf{M}ulti-mod\textbf{A}l \textbf{TE}mporal Disentanglement (\textbf{MATE}) model. Specifically, our \textbf{MATE} model is built on a temporally variational inference architecture with the modality-shared and modality-specific prior networks for the disentanglement of latent variables. Furthermore, we establish identifiability results to show that the extracted representation is disentangled. More specifically, we first achieve the subspace identifiability for modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables by leveraging the pairing of multi-modal data. Then we establish the component-wise identifiability of modality-specific latent variables by employing sufficient changes of historical latent variables. Extensive experimental studies on multi-modal sensors, human activity recognition, and healthcare datasets show a general improvement in different downstream tasks, highlighting the effectiveness of our method in real-world scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Factor Strength Estimation in Vector and Matrix Time Series Factor Models

Most factor modelling research in vector or matrix-valued time series assume all factors are pervasive/strong and leave weaker factors and their corresponding series to the noise. Weaker factors can in fact be important to a group of observed variables, for instance a sector factor in a large portfolio of stocks may only affect particular sectors, but can be important both in interpretations and predictions for those stocks. While more recent factor modelling researches do consider ``local'' factors which are weak factors with sparse corresponding factor loadings, there are real data examples in the literature where factors are weak because of weak influence on most/all observed variables, so that the corresponding factor loadings are not sparse (non-local). As a first in the literature, we propose estimators of factor strengths for both local and non-local weak factors, and prove their consistency with rates of convergence spelt out for both vector and matrix-valued time series factor models. Factor strength has an important indication in what estimation procedure of factor models to follow, as well as the estimation accuracy of various estimators (Chen and Lam, 2024). Simulation results show that our estimators have good performance in recovering the true factor strengths, and an analysis on the NYC taxi traffic data indicates the existence of weak factors in the data which may not be localized.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Long-term Causal Effects Estimation via Latent Surrogates Representation Learning

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods estimate causal effects in an idealistic and simplistic way - ignoring the causal structure among short-term outcomes and treating all of them as surrogates. However, such methods cannot be well applied to real-world scenarios, in which the partially observed surrogates are mixed with their proxies among short-term outcomes. To this end, we develop our flexible method, Laser, to estimate long-term causal effects in the more realistic situation that the surrogates are observed or have observed proxies.Given the indistinguishability between the surrogates and proxies, we utilize identifiable variational auto-encoder (iVAE) to recover the whole valid surrogates on all the surrogates candidates without the need of distinguishing the observed surrogates or the proxies of latent surrogates. With the help of the recovered surrogates, we further devise an unbiased estimation of long-term causal effects. Extensive experimental results on the real-world and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

On the Role of Entropy-based Loss for Learning Causal Structures with Continuous Optimization

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, a method with non-combinatorial directed acyclic constraint, called NOTEARS, formulates the causal structure learning problem as a continuous optimization problem using least-square loss. Though the least-square loss function is well justified under the standard Gaussian noise assumption, it is limited if the assumption does not hold. In this work, we theoretically show that the violation of the Gaussian noise assumption will hinder the causal direction identification, making the causal orientation fully determined by the causal strength as well as the variances of noises in the linear case and by the strong non-Gaussian noises in the nonlinear case. Consequently, we propose a more general entropy-based loss that is theoretically consistent with the likelihood score under any noise distribution. We run extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and real-world data to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that our method achieves the best in Structure Hamming Distance, False Discovery Rate, and True Positive Rate matrices.

cs.LG↗