arXiv subjects

Weiqing Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Weiqing Liu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Learning Multi-Agent Intention-Aware Communication for Optimal Multi-Order Execution in Finance

Order execution is a fundamental task in quantitative finance, aiming at finishing acquisition or liquidation for a number of trading orders of the specific assets. Recent advance in model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven solution to the order execution problem. However, the existing works always optimize execution for an individual order, overlooking the practice that multiple orders are specified to execute simultaneously, resulting in suboptimality and bias. In this paper, we first present a multi-agent RL (MARL) method for multi-order execution considering practical constraints. Specifically, we treat every agent as an individual operator to trade one specific order, while keeping communicating with each other and collaborating for maximizing the overall profits. Nevertheless, the existing MARL algorithms often incorporate communication among agents by exchanging only the information of their partial observations, which is inefficient in complicated financial market. To improve collaboration, we then propose a learnable multi-round communication protocol, for the agents communicating the intended actions with each other and refining accordingly. It is optimized through a novel action value attribution method which is provably consistent with the original learning objective yet more efficient. The experiments on the data from two real-world markets have illustrated superior performance with significantly better collaboration effectiveness achieved by our method.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Scalable and Safe Remediation of Defective Actions in Self-Learning Conversational Systems

Off-Policy reinforcement learning has been a driving force for the state-of-the-art conversational AIs leading to more natural humanagent interactions and improving the user satisfaction for goal-oriented agents. However, in large-scale commercial settings, it is often challenging to balance between policy improvements and experience continuity on the broad spectrum of applications handled by such system. In the literature, off-policy evaluation and guard-railing on aggregate statistics has been commonly used to address this problem. In this paper, we propose a method for curating and leveraging high-precision samples sourced from historical regression incident reports to validate, safe-guard, and improve policies prior to the online deployment. We conducted extensive experiments using data from a real-world conversational system and actual regression incidents. The proposed method is currently deployed in our production system to protect customers against broken experiences and enable long-term policy improvements.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

KGE-CL: Contrastive Learning of Tensor Decomposition Based Knowledge Graph Embeddings

Learning the embeddings of knowledge graphs (KG) is vital in artificial intelligence, and can benefit various downstream applications, such as recommendation and question answering. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed for knowledge graph embedding (KGE). However, most previous KGE methods ignore the semantic similarity between the related entities and entity-relation couples in different triples since they separately optimize each triple with the scoring function. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet efficient contrastive learning framework for tensor decomposition based (TDB) KGE, which can shorten the semantic distance of the related entities and entity-relation couples in different triples and thus improve the performance of KGE. We evaluate our proposed method on three standard KGE datasets: WN18RR, FB15k-237 and YAGO3-10. Our method can yield some new state-of-the-art results, achieving 51.2% MRR, 46.8% Hits@1 on the WN18RR dataset, 37.8% MRR, 28.6% Hits@1 on FB15k-237 dataset, and 59.1% MRR, 51.8% Hits@1 on the YAGO3-10 dataset.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Learning Differential Operators for Interpretable Time Series Modeling

Modeling sequential patterns from data is at the core of various time series forecasting tasks. Deep learning models have greatly outperformed many traditional models, but these black-box models generally lack explainability in prediction and decision making. To reveal the underlying trend with understandable mathematical expressions, scientists and economists tend to use partial differential equations (PDEs) to explain the highly nonlinear dynamics of sequential patterns. However, it usually requires domain expert knowledge and a series of simplified assumptions, which is not always practical and can deviate from the ever-changing world. Is it possible to learn the differential relations from data dynamically to explain the time-evolving dynamics? In this work, we propose an learning framework that can automatically obtain interpretable PDE models from sequential data. Particularly, this framework is comprised of learnable differential blocks, named $P$-blocks, which is proved to be able to approximate any time-evolving complex continuous functions in theory. Moreover, to capture the dynamics shift, this framework introduces a meta-learning controller to dynamically optimize the hyper-parameters of a hybrid PDE model. Extensive experiments on times series forecasting of financial, engineering, and health data show that our model can provide valuable interpretability and achieve comparable performance to state-of-the-art models. From empirical studies, we find that learning a few differential operators may capture the major trend of sequential dynamics without massive computational complexity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

DDG-DA: Data Distribution Generation for Predictable Concept Drift Adaptation

In many real-world scenarios, we often deal with streaming data that is sequentially collected over time. Due to the non-stationary nature of the environment, the streaming data distribution may change in unpredictable ways, which is known as concept drift. To handle concept drift, previous methods first detect when/where the concept drift happens and then adapt models to fit the distribution of the latest data. However, there are still many cases that some underlying factors of environment evolution are predictable, making it possible to model the future concept drift trend of the streaming data, while such cases are not fully explored in previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel method DDG-DA, that can effectively forecast the evolution of data distribution and improve the performance of models. Specifically, we first train a predictor to estimate the future data distribution, then leverage it to generate training samples, and finally train models on the generated data. We conduct experiments on three real-world tasks (forecasting on stock price trend, electricity load and solar irradiance) and obtain significant improvement on multiple widely-used models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Towards Applicable Reinforcement Learning: Improving the Generalization and Sample Efficiency with Policy Ensemble

It is challenging for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to succeed in real-world applications like financial trading and logistic system due to the noisy observation and environment shifting between training and evaluation. Thus, it requires both high sample efficiency and generalization for resolving real-world tasks. However, directly applying typical RL algorithms can lead to poor performance in such scenarios. Considering the great performance of ensemble methods on both accuracy and generalization in supervised learning (SL), we design a robust and applicable method named Ensemble Proximal Policy Optimization (EPPO), which learns ensemble policies in an end-to-end manner. Notably, EPPO combines each policy and the policy ensemble organically and optimizes both simultaneously. In addition, EPPO adopts a diversity enhancement regularization over the policy space which helps to generalize to unseen states and promotes exploration. We theoretically prove EPPO increases exploration efficacy, and through comprehensive experimental evaluations on various tasks, we demonstrate that EPPO achieves higher efficiency and is robust for real-world applications compared with vanilla policy optimization algorithms and other ensemble methods. Code and supplemental materials are available at https://seqml.github.io/eppo.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

HIST: A Graph-based Framework for Stock Trend Forecasting via Mining Concept-Oriented Shared Information

Stock trend forecasting, which forecasts stock prices' future trends, plays an essential role in investment. The stocks in a market can share information so that their stock prices are highly correlated. Several methods were recently proposed to mine the shared information through stock concepts (e.g., technology, Internet Retail) extracted from the Web to improve the forecasting results. However, previous work assumes the connections between stocks and concepts are stationary, and neglects the dynamic relevance between stocks and concepts, limiting the forecasting results. Moreover, existing methods overlook the invaluable shared information carried by hidden concepts, which measure stocks' commonness beyond the manually defined stock concepts. To overcome the shortcomings of previous work, we proposed a novel stock trend forecasting framework that can adequately mine the concept-oriented shared information from predefined concepts and hidden concepts. The proposed framework simultaneously utilize the stock's shared information and individual information to improve the stock trend forecasting performance. Experimental results on the real-world tasks demonstrate the efficiency of our framework on stock trend forecasting. The investment simulation shows that our framework can achieve a higher investment return than the baselines.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2021

SHGNN: Structure-Aware Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network

Many real-world graphs (networks) are heterogeneous with different types of nodes and edges. Heterogeneous graph embedding, aiming at learning the low-dimensional node representations of a heterogeneous graph, is vital for various downstream applications. Many meta-path based embedding methods have been proposed to learn the semantic information of heterogeneous graphs in recent years. However, most of the existing techniques overlook the graph structure information when learning the heterogeneous graph embeddings. This paper proposes a novel Structure-Aware Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network (SHGNN) to address the above limitations. In detail, we first utilize a feature propagation module to capture the local structure information of intermediate nodes in the meta-path. Next, we use a tree-attention aggregator to incorporate the graph structure information into the aggregation module on the meta-path. Finally, we leverage a meta-path aggregator to fuse the information aggregated from different meta-paths. We conducted experiments on node classification and clustering tasks and achieved state-of-the-art results on the benchmark datasets, which shows the effectiveness of our proposed method.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Deep Risk Model: A Deep Learning Solution for Mining Latent Risk Factors to Improve Covariance Matrix Estimation

Modeling and managing portfolio risk is perhaps the most important step to achieve growing and preserving investment performance. Within the modern portfolio construction framework that built on Markowitz's theory, the covariance matrix of stock returns is a required input to calculate portfolio risk. Traditional approaches to estimate the covariance matrix are based on human-designed risk factors, which often require tremendous time and effort to design better risk factors to improve the covariance estimation. In this work, we formulate the quest of mining risk factors as a learning problem and propose a deep learning solution to effectively ``design'' risk factors with neural networks. The learning objective is also carefully set to ensure the learned risk factors are effective in explaining the variance of stock returns as well as having desired orthogonality and stability. Our experiments on the stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution: our method can obtain $1.9\%$ higher explained variance measured by $R^2$ and also reduce the risk of a global minimum variance portfolio. The incremental analysis further supports our design of both the architecture and the learning objective.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Instance-wise Graph-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

The multivariate time series forecasting has attracted more and more attention because of its vital role in different fields in the real world, such as finance, traffic, and weather. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed for forecasting multivariate time series. Although some previous work considers the interdependencies among different variables in the same timestamp, existing work overlooks the inter-connections between different variables at different time stamps. In this paper, we propose a simple yet efficient instance-wise graph-based framework to utilize the inter-dependencies of different variables at different time stamps for multivariate time series forecasting. The key idea of our framework is aggregating information from the historical time series of different variables to the current time series that we need to forecast. We conduct experiments on the Traffic, Electricity, and Exchange-Rate multivariate time series datasets. The results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Model Complexity of Deep Learning: A Survey

Model complexity is a fundamental problem in deep learning. In this paper we conduct a systematic overview of the latest studies on model complexity in deep learning. Model complexity of deep learning can be categorized into expressive capacity and effective model complexity. We review the existing studies on those two categories along four important factors, including model framework, model size, optimization process and data complexity. We also discuss the applications of deep learning model complexity including understanding model generalization, model optimization, and model selection and design. We conclude by proposing several interesting future directions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Temporally Correlated Task Scheduling for Sequence Learning

Sequence learning has attracted much research attention from the machine learning community in recent years. In many applications, a sequence learning task is usually associated with multiple temporally correlated auxiliary tasks, which are different in terms of how much input information to use or which future step to predict. For example, (i) in simultaneous machine translation, one can conduct translation under different latency (i.e., how many input words to read/wait before translation); (ii) in stock trend forecasting, one can predict the price of a stock in different future days (e.g., tomorrow, the day after tomorrow). While it is clear that those temporally correlated tasks can help each other, there is a very limited exploration on how to better leverage multiple auxiliary tasks to boost the performance of the main task. In this work, we introduce a learnable scheduler to sequence learning, which can adaptively select auxiliary tasks for training depending on the model status and the current training data. The scheduler and the model for the main task are jointly trained through bi-level optimization. Experiments show that our method significantly improves the performance of simultaneous machine translation and stock trend forecasting.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Learning Multiple Stock Trading Patterns with Temporal Routing Adaptor and Optimal Transport

Successful quantitative investment usually relies on precise predictions of the future movement of the stock price. Recently, machine learning based solutions have shown their capacity to give more accurate stock prediction and become indispensable components in modern quantitative investment systems. However, the i.i.d. assumption behind existing methods is inconsistent with the existence of diverse trading patterns in the stock market, which inevitably limits their ability to achieve better stock prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture, Temporal Routing Adaptor (TRA), to empower existing stock prediction models with the ability to model multiple stock trading patterns. Essentially, TRA is a lightweight module that consists of a set of independent predictors for learning multiple patterns as well as a router to dispatch samples to different predictors. Nevertheless, the lack of explicit pattern identifiers makes it quite challenging to train an effective TRA-based model. To tackle this challenge, we further design a learning algorithm based on Optimal Transport (OT) to obtain the optimal sample to predictor assignment and effectively optimize the router with such assignment through an auxiliary loss term. Experiments on the real-world stock ranking task show that compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, e.g., Attention LSTM and Transformer, the proposed method can improve information coefficient (IC) from 0.053 to 0.059 and 0.051 to 0.056 respectively. Our dataset and code used in this work are publicly available: https://github.com/microsoft/qlib/tree/main/examples/benchmarks/TRA.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

REST: Relational Event-driven Stock Trend Forecasting

Stock trend forecasting, aiming at predicting the stock future trends, is crucial for investors to seek maximized profits from the stock market. Many event-driven methods utilized the events extracted from news, social media, and discussion board to forecast the stock trend in recent years. However, existing event-driven methods have two main shortcomings: 1) overlooking the influence of event information differentiated by the stock-dependent properties; 2) neglecting the effect of event information from other related stocks. In this paper, we propose a relational event-driven stock trend forecasting (REST) framework, which can address the shortcoming of existing methods. To remedy the first shortcoming, we propose to model the stock context and learn the effect of event information on the stocks under different contexts. To address the second shortcoming, we construct a stock graph and design a new propagation layer to propagate the effect of event information from related stocks. The experimental studies on the real-world data demonstrate the efficiency of our REST framework. The results of investment simulation show that our framework can achieve a higher return of investment than baselines.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2021

Universal Trading for Order Execution with Oracle Policy Distillation

As a fundamental problem in algorithmic trading, order execution aims at fulfilling a specific trading order, either liquidation or acquirement, for a given instrument. Towards effective execution strategy, recent years have witnessed the shift from the analytical view with model-based market assumptions to model-free perspective, i.e., reinforcement learning, due to its nature of sequential decision optimization. However, the noisy and yet imperfect market information that can be leveraged by the policy has made it quite challenging to build up sample efficient reinforcement learning methods to achieve effective order execution. In this paper, we propose a novel universal trading policy optimization framework to bridge the gap between the noisy yet imperfect market states and the optimal action sequences for order execution. Particularly, this framework leverages a policy distillation method that can better guide the learning of the common policy towards practically optimal execution by an oracle teacher with perfect information to approximate the optimal trading strategy. The extensive experiments have shown significant improvements of our method over various strong baselines, with reasonable trading actions.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2021

Learning to Reweight with Deep Interactions

Recently, the concept of teaching has been introduced into machine learning, in which a teacher model is used to guide the training of a student model (which will be used in real tasks) through data selection, loss function design, etc. Learning to reweight, which is a specific kind of teaching that reweights training data using a teacher model, receives much attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. In existing learning to reweight works, the teacher model only utilizes shallow/surface information such as training iteration number and loss/accuracy of the student model from training/validation sets, but ignores the internal states of the student model, which limits the potential of learning to reweight. In this work, we propose an improved data reweighting algorithm, in which the student model provides its internal states to the teacher model, and the teacher model returns adaptive weights of training samples to enhance the training of the student model. The teacher model is jointly trained with the student model using meta gradients propagated from a validation set. Experiments on image classification with clean/noisy labels and neural machine translation empirically demonstrate that our algorithm makes significant improvement over previous methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

ADD: Augmented Disentanglement Distillation Framework for Improving Stock Trend Forecasting

Stock trend forecasting has become a popular research direction that attracts widespread attention in the financial field. Though deep learning methods have achieved promising results, there are still many limitations, for example, how to extract clean features from the raw stock data. In this paper, we introduce an \emph{Augmented Disentanglement Distillation (ADD)} approach to remove interferential features from the noised raw data. Specifically, we present 1) a disentanglement structure to separate excess and market information from the stock data to avoid the two factors disturbing each other's own prediction. Besides, by applying 2) a dynamic self-distillation method over the disentanglement framework, other implicit interference factors can also be removed. Further, thanks to the decoder module in our framework, 3) a novel strategy is proposed to augment the training samples based on the different excess and market features to improve performance. We conduct experiments on the Chinese stock market data. Results show that our method significantly improves the stock trend forecasting performances, as well as the actual investment income through backtesting, which strongly demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Qlib: An AI-oriented Quantitative Investment Platform

Quantitative investment aims to maximize the return and minimize the risk in a sequential trading period over a set of financial instruments. Recently, inspired by rapid development and great potential of AI technologies in generating remarkable innovation in quantitative investment, there has been increasing adoption of AI-driven workflow for quantitative research and practical investment. In the meantime of enriching the quantitative investment methodology, AI technologies have raised new challenges to the quantitative investment system. Particularly, the new learning paradigms for quantitative investment call for an infrastructure upgrade to accommodate the renovated workflow; moreover, the data-driven nature of AI technologies indeed indicates a requirement of the infrastructure with more powerful performance; additionally, there exist some unique challenges for applying AI technologies to solve different tasks in the financial scenarios. To address these challenges and bridge the gap between AI technologies and quantitative investment, we design and develop Qlib that aims to realize the potential, empower the research, and create the value of AI technologies in quantitative investment.

q-fin.GN↗