arXiv subjects

Weiwei Fan

Publications and source records attributed to Weiwei Fan.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

UCB for Large-Scale Pure Exploration: Beyond Sub-Gaussianity

Selecting the best alternative from a finite set is the central objective of ranking and selection (R&S) and best arm identification (BAI). Traditional R&S or BAI approaches have predominantly relied on Gaussian or sub-Gaussian assumptions on the performance distributions of all alternatives, which limit their applicability to non-sub-Gaussian---especially heavy-tailed---problems. The need to move beyond sub-Gaussianity may become even more critical in large-scale problems, which tend to be especially sensitive to distributional specifications. In this paper, motivated by the widespread use of upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithms in sequential decision making, we investigate their performance in large-scale, non-sub-Gaussian R&S settings. We consider the simplest category of UCB algorithms, where the UCB value for each alternative is defined as the sample mean plus an exploration bonus that depends only on its own sample size. We abstract this into a meta-UCB algorithm and propose letting it select the alternative with the largest sample size as the best upon stopping. For this meta-UCB algorithm, we first derive a distribution-free lower bound on the probability of correct selection. Building on this bound, we first study the indifference-zone formulation and show that the meta-UCB algorithm---and therefore a broad class of UCB algorithms---achieves sample optimality as long as the variances are uniformly bounded. We then extend sample optimality to a non-indifference-zone configuration with polynomially shrinking mean gaps under the same variance assumption. These results demonstrate the applicability of UCB algorithms to large-scale R&S problems with non-sub-Gaussian distributions. Numerical experiments support our results and provide additional insights into the comparative behaviors of UCB algorithms within and beyond our meta-UCB framework.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Budget Allocation for Large-Scale LLM-Enabled Virtual Screening

Screening tasks that aim to identify a small subset of top alternatives from a large pool are common in business decision-making processes. These tasks often require substantial human effort to evaluate each alternative's performance, making them time-consuming and costly. Motivated by recent advances in large language models (LLMs), particularly their ability to generate outputs that align well with human evaluations, we consider an LLM-as-human-evaluator approach for conducting screening virtually, thereby reducing the cost burden. To achieve scalability and cost-effectiveness in virtual screening, we identify that the stochastic nature of LLM outputs and their cost structure necessitate efficient budget allocation across all alternatives. To address this, we propose using a top-$m$ greedy evaluation mechanism, a simple yet effective approach that keeps evaluating the current top-$m$ alternatives, and design the explore-first top-$m$ greedy (EFG-$m$) algorithm. We prove that EFG-$m$ is both sample-optimal and consistent in large-scale virtual screening. Surprisingly, we also uncover a bonus ranking effect, where the algorithm naturally induces an indifference-based ranking within the selected subset. To further enhance practicality, we design a suite of algorithm variants to improve screening performance and computational efficiency. Numerical experiments validate our results and demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms. Lastly, we conduct a case study on LLM-based virtual screening. The study shows that while LLMs alone may not provide meaningful screening and ranking results when directly queried, integrating them with our sample-optimal algorithms unlocks their potential for cost-effective, large-scale virtual screening.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Review of Large-Scale Simulation Optimization

Large-scale simulation optimization (SO) problems encompass both large-scale ranking-and-selection problems and high-dimensional discrete or continuous SO problems, presenting significant challenges to existing SO theories and algorithms. This paper begins by providing illustrative examples that highlight the differences between large-scale SO problems and those of a more moderate scale. Subsequently, it reviews several widely employed techniques for addressing large-scale SO problems, such as divide and conquer, dimension reduction, and gradient-based algorithms. Additionally, the paper examines parallelization techniques leveraging widely accessible parallel computing environments to facilitate the resolution of large-scale SO problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

A Deep Q-Network Based on Radial Basis Functions for Multi-Echelon Inventory Management

This paper addresses a multi-echelon inventory management problem with a complex network topology where deriving optimal ordering decisions is difficult. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently shown potential in solving such problems, while designing the neural networks in DRL remains a challenge. In order to address this, a DRL model is developed whose Q-network is based on radial basis functions. The approach can be more easily constructed compared to classic DRL models based on neural networks, thus alleviating the computational burden of hyperparameter tuning. Through a series of simulation experiments, the superior performance of this approach is demonstrated compared to the simple base-stock policy, producing a better policy in the multi-echelon system and competitive performance in the serial system where the base-stock policy is optimal. In addition, the approach outperforms current DRL approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

The (Surprising) Sample Optimality of Greedy Procedures for Large-Scale Ranking and Selection

Ranking and selection (R&S) aims to select the best alternative with the largest mean performance from a finite set of alternatives. Recently, considerable attention has turned towards the large-scale R&S problem which involves a large number of alternatives. Ideal large-scale R&S procedures should be sample optimal, i.e., the total sample size required to deliver an asymptotically non-zero probability of correct selection (PCS) grows at the minimal order (linear order) in the number of alternatives, $k$. Surprisingly, we discover that the na\"ive greedy procedure, which keeps sampling the alternative with the largest running average, performs strikingly well and appears sample optimal. To understand this discovery, we develop a new boundary-crossing perspective and prove that the greedy procedure is sample optimal for the scenarios where the best mean maintains at least a positive constant away from all other means as $k$ increases. We further show that the derived PCS lower bound is asymptotically tight for the slippage configuration of means with a common variance. For other scenarios, we consider the probability of good selection and find that the result depends on the growth behavior of the number of good alternatives: if it remains bounded as $k$ increases, the sample optimality still holds; otherwise, the result may change. Moreover, we propose the explore-first greedy procedures by adding an exploration phase to the greedy procedure. The procedures are proven to be sample optimal and consistent under the same assumptions. Last, we numerically investigate the performance of our greedy procedures in solving large-scale R&S problems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Review on Ranking and Selection: A New Perspective

In this paper, we briefly review the development of ranking-and-selection (R&S) in the past 70 years, especially the theoretical achievements and practical applications in the last 20 years. Different from the frequentist and Bayesian classifications adopted by Kim and Nelson (2006b) and Chick (2006) in their review articles, we categorize existing R&S procedures into fixed-precision and fixed-budget procedures, as in Hunter and Nelson (2017). We show that these two categories of procedures essentially differ in the underlying methodological formulations, i.e., they are built on hypothesis testing and dynamic-programming, respectively. In light of this variation, we review in detail some well-known procedures in the literature and show how they fit into these two formulations. In addition, we discuss the use of R&S procedures in solving various practical problems and propose what we think are the important research questions in the field.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Distributionally Robust Selection of the Best

Specifying a proper input distribution is often a challenging task in simulation modeling. In practice, there may be multiple plausible distributions that can fit the input data reasonably well, especially when the data volume is not large. In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting the best from a finite set of simulated alternatives, in the presence of such input uncertainty. We model such uncertainty by an ambiguity set consisting of a finite number of plausible input distributions, and aim to select the alternative with the best worst-case mean performance over the ambiguity set. We refer to this problem as robust selection of the best (RSB). To solve the RSB problem, we develop a two-stage selection procedure and a sequential selection procedure; we then prove that both procedures can achieve at least a user-specified probability of correct selection under mild conditions. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the computational efficiency of the two procedures. Finally, we apply the RSB approach to study a queueing system's staffing problem using synthetic data and an appointment-scheduling problem using real data from a large hospital in China. We find that the RSB approach can generate decisions significantly better than other widely used approaches.

stat.ME↗