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Weixuan Xia

Publications and source records attributed to Weixuan Xia.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Distribution-free testing of linear type

We introduce a distribution-free goodness-of-fit test, termed the omega-1 test, which naturally complements the Kolmogorov--Smirnov test and Cramér--von Mises test and can be viewed as their (piecewise) linear analog. Defined as an $\mathrm{L}^{1}$-functional of the empirical process, the test statistic improves on balancing sensitivity to localized and diffuse alternatives and gives a robust and interpretable measure of distributional discrepancy, apart from close connections to the Wasserstein 1-distance. For finite samples, we derive a finite-dimensional computational form for the statistic under general conditions, which leads to various explicit formulas for its null distribution. Under mild continuity assumptions, the limiting statistic is distribution-free, with explicit distribution formulas. In composite settings, the statistic is also compatible with the Khmaladze transformation, enabling asymptotically distribution-free testing. The limiting transformed statistic also has an explicit distribution that escapes reliance on intractable compensator processes or purely numerical evaluation. Simulation results indicate rapid convergence of the finite-sample distributions to their limiting counterparts and support the practical applicability of the test.

math.ST

When ratios fall: A dynamic approach to contingent convertibles

We propose a novel valuation framework for contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds based on the issuing bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which is widely acknowledged as an indicator of a bank's solvency. Our approach develops a bivariate jump-diffusion model that captures the dynamic relationship linking the CET1 ratios, share prices, and CoCo bond prices, incorporating both continuous market movements and correlated jump risk. The model advances existing literature through three key innovations: (1) a hybrid mechanism for modeling regulatory discretion in trigger decisions, (2) a class of power conversion schemes that generalizes traditional approaches while maintaining analytical tractability, and (3) a method to overcome the temporal discrepancy between high-frequency market data and low-frequency regulatory reporting. We derive semi-closed form formulas for both write-down and equity-convertible CoCo bonds and validate our model through five case studies spanning from 2009 to 2023, including an in-depth analysis of the 2023 Credit Suisse collapse. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in pricing and hedging performance while highlighting the model's data-adaptive nature that enables short-term predictions.

q-fin.PR

Insider and stealth trading with dynamic legal risk

The present paper investigates how insiders strategically navigate ongoing legal risk while leveraging stealth trading within a continuous-time Kyle-type framework. Legal enforcement operates concurrently with trading, which dynamic can be adversely obscured by a large surrounding population of noise traders. While surveillance intensity responds directly to the insider's trading intensity, triggering a random prosecution time, the resulting legal sanctions encompass both strategy-focused criminal penalties and profit-dependent civil penalties. Employing a new impact-neutral measure change, equilibrium analysis shows that even after achieving stealth, the insider internalizes regulatory exposure, and enforcement can significantly shape equilibrium trading strategies. The associated limiting equilibria yield a rich set of outcomes, with three key insights for regulatory impact: (i) under committed regulatory scrutiny, the insider trades a time-varying function of the discrepancy between the asset's fundamental value and its market price, and trading may intensify indefinitely near the end of the trading horizon as legal risk recedes; (ii) merely raising penalties as an advantageous selection cost proves ineffective in offsetting declines in regulatory diligence; (iii) criminal penalties remain essential for deterring aggressive insider trading, as they impose critical temporal constraints on trading intensity not achievable through civil penalties alone.

econ.GN

On the Absolute-Value Integral of a Brownian Motion with Drift: Exact and Asymptotic Formulae

The present paper is concerned with the integral of the absolute value of a Brownian motion with drift. By establishing an asymptotic expansion of the space Laplace transform, we obtain series representations for the probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the integral, making use of Meijer's G-function. A functional recursive formula is derived for the moments, which is shown to yield only exponentials and Gauss' error function up to arbitrary orders, permitting exact computations. To obtain sharp asymptotic estimates for small- and large-deviation probabilities, we employ a marginal space-time Laplace transform and apply a newly developed generalization of Laplace's method to exponential Airy integrals. The impact of drift on the complete distribution of the integral is explored in depth. The resultant new formulae complement existing ones in the standard Brownian motion case to great extent in terms of both theoretical generality and modeling capacity and have been presented for easy implementation, which numerical experiments demonstrate.

math.PR

Wealth or Stealth? The Camouflage Effect in Insider Trading

We consider a Kyle-type model where insider trading takes place among a potentially large population of liquidity traders and is subject to legal penalties. Insiders exploit the liquidity provided by the trading masses to "camouflage" their actions and balance expected wealth with the necessary stealth to avoid detection. Under a diverse spectrum of prosecution schemes, we establish the existence of equilibria for arbitrary population sizes and a unique limiting equilibrium. A convergence analysis determines the scale of insider trading by a stealth index $γ$, revealing that the equilibrium can be closely approximated by a simple limit due to diminished price informativeness. Empirical aspects are derived from two calibration experiments using non-overlapping data sets spanning from 1980 to 2018, which underline the indispensable role of a large population in insider trading models with legal risk, along with important implications for the incidence of stealth trading and the deterrent effect of legal enforcement.

econ.GN

Characterizing nonconvex boundaries via scalarization

We present a unified approach for characterizing the boundary of a possibly nonconvex domain. Motivated by the well-known Pascoletti--Serafini method of scalarization, we recast the boundary characterization as a multi-criteria optimization problem with respect to a local partial order induced by a spherical cone with varying orient. Such an approach enables us to trace the whole boundary and can be considered a general dual representation for arbitrary (nonconvex) sets satisfying an exterior cone condition. We prove the equivalence between the geometrical boundary and the scalarization-implied boundary, particularly in the case of Euclidean spaces and two infinite-dimensional spaces for practical interest. By reformulating each scalarized problem as a parameterized constrained optimization problem, we shall develop a corresponding numerical scheme for the proposed approach. Some related applications are also discussed.

math.OC

On certain integral functionals of integer-valued subordinators

It is known that the exponential functional of a Poisson process admits a probability density function in the form of an infinite series. In this paper, we obtain an explicit expression for the density function of the exponential functional of any integer-valued subordinator, and by extension, limit representations for that of an arbitrary pure-jump subordinator. With an added positive drift, the density function is expressed via piecewise basis functions governed by a functional relation. Closed-form density functions for these cases have been established only for a few special instances of Lévy processes in the past literature. Our work substantially advances this line of research by providing an analytical perspective on the distribution of a broad class of exponential Lévy functionals, also suggesting potential methodological extensions to general purely discontinuous Lévy processes. Moreover, we consider arbitrary decreasing functionals of integer-valued subordinators by deriving sufficient and necessary conditions for their convergence, which are then applied to obtain limit-series representations for the density functions of inverse-power functionals. The numerical performance of the proposed formulae is demonstrated through various examples of well-known distributions.

math.PR

Crypto Inverse-Power Options and Fractional Stochastic Volatility

Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent model framework, featuring fractional stochastic volatility. We particularly focus on inverse options, including the emerging Quanto inverse options and their power-type generalizations, aiming at mitigating cryptocurrency exchange rate risk and adjusting inherent risk exposure. Characteristic function-based pricing--hedging formulas are derived for these inverse options. The model framework is applied to asymmetric Laplace jump-diffusions and Gaussian-mixed tempered stable-type processes, employing three types of fractional kernels, for an extensive empirical analysis involving model calibration on two independent Bitcoin options data sets, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Key insights from our theoretical analysis and empirical findings include: (1) the superior performance of fractional stochastic-volatility models compared to various benchmark models, including those incorporating jumps and stochastic volatility, along with high computational efficiency when utilizing a piecewise kernel, (2) the practical necessity of considering jumps in both price and volatility, along with rough volatility, in pricing and hedging cryptocurrency options, (3) stability of calibrated parameter values in line with stylized facts.

q-fin.PR

Optimal Consumption--Investment Problems under Time-Varying Incomplete Preferences

The main objective of this paper is to develop a martingale-type solution to optimal consumption--investment choice problems ([Merton, 1969] and [Merton, 1971]) under time-varying incomplete preferences driven by externalities such as patience, socialization effects, and market volatility. The market is composed of multiple risky assets and multiple consumption goods, while in addition there are multiple fluctuating preference parameters with inexact values connected to imprecise tastes. Utility maximization is a multi-criteria problem with possibly function-valued criteria. To come up with a complete characterization of the solutions, first we motivate and introduce a set-valued stochastic process for the dynamics of multi-utility indices and formulate the optimization problem in a topological vector space. Then, we modify a classical scalarization method allowing for infiniteness and randomness in dimensions and prove results of equivalence to the original problem. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate practical interests and method applicability progressively. The link between the original problem and a dual problem is also discussed, relatively briefly. Finally, using Malliavin calculus with stochastic geometry, we find optimal investment policies to be generally set-valued, each of whose selectors admits a four-way decomposition involving an additional indecisiveness risk-hedging portfolio. Our results touch on new directions for optimal consumption--investment choices in the presence of incomparability and time inconsistency, also signaling potentially testable assumptions on the variability of asset prices. Simulation techniques for set-valued processes are studied for how solved optimal policies can be computed in practice.

q-fin.MF

Set-valued stochastic integrals for convoluted Lévy processes

In this paper we study set-valued Volterra-type stochastic integrals driven by Lévy processes. Upon extending the classical definitions of set-valued stochastic integral functionals to convoluted integrals with square-integrable kernels, set-valued convoluted stochastic integrals are defined by taking the closed decomposable hull of the integral functionals for generic time. We show that, aside from well-established results for set-valued Itô integrals, while set-valued stochastic integrals with respect to a finite-variation Poisson random measure are guaranteed to be integrably bounded for bounded integrands, this is not true when the random measure is of infinite variation. For indefinite integrals, we prove that it is a mutual effect of kernel singularity and jumps that the set-valued convoluted integrals are possibly explosive and take extended vector values. These results have some important implications on how set-valued fractional dynamical systems are to be constructed in general. Two classes of set-monotone processes are studied for practical interests in economic and financial modeling.

math.PR

Regulating stochastic clocks

Stochastic clocks represent a class of time change methods for incorporating trading activity into continuous-time financial models, with the ability to deal with typical asymmetrical and tail risks in financial returns. In this paper we propose a significant improvement of stochastic clocks for the same objective but without decreasing the number of trades or changing the trading intensity. Our methodology targets any Lévy subordinator, or more generally any process of nonnegative independent increments, and is based on various choices of regulating kernels motivated from repeated averaging. By way of a hyperparameter linked to the degree of regulation, arbitrarily large skewness and excess kurtosis of returns can be easily achieved. Generic-time Laplace transforms, characterizing triplets, and cumulants of the regulated clocks and subsequent mixed models are analyzed, serving purposes ranging from statistical estimation and option price calibration to simulation techniques. Under specified jump--diffusion processes and tempered stable processes, a robust moment-based estimation procedure with profile likelihood is developed and a comprehensive empirical study involving S\&P500 and Bitcoin daily returns is conducted to demonstrate a series of desirable effects of the proposed methods.

q-fin.ST

Power-type derivatives for rough volatility with jumps

In this paper we propose a novel pricing-hedging framework for volatility derivatives which simultaneously takes into account rough volatility and volatility jumps. Our model directly targets the instantaneous variance of a risky asset and consists of a generalized fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a Lévy subordinator and an independent sinusoidal-composite Lévy process. The former component captures short-term dependence in the instantaneous volatility, while the latter is introduced expressly for rectifying the activity level of the average forward variance. Such a framework ensures that the characteristic function of average forward variance is obtainable in semi-closed form, without having to invoke any geometric-mean approximations. To analyze swaps and European-style options on average forward volatility, we introduce a general class of power-type derivatives on the average forward variance, which also provide flexible nonlinear leverage exposure. Pricing-hedging formulae are based on a modified numerical Fourier transform technique. A comparative empirical study is conducted on two independent recent data sets on VIX options, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, to demonstrate that the proposed framework is highly amenable to efficient model calibration under various choices of kernels.

q-fin.PR

Average-tempered stable subordinators with applications

In this paper the running average of a subordinator with a tempered stable distribution is considered. We investigate a family of previously unexplored infinite-activity subordinators induced by the probability distribution of the running average process and determine their jump intensity measures. Special cases including gamma processes and inverse Gaussian processes are discussed. Then we derive easily implementable formulas for the distribution functions, cumulants, and moments, as well as provide explicit estimates for their asymptotic behaviors. Numerical experiments are conducted for illustrating the applicability and efficiency of the proposed formulas. Two important extensions of the running average process and its equi-distributed subordinator are examined with concrete applications to structural degradation modeling and financial derivatives pricing, where their advantages relative to several existing models are highlighted together with the mention of Euler discretization and compound Poisson approximation techniques.

math.PR