arXiv subjects

Wenbin Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Wenbin Zhou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Prediction: Conformal Inference for Latent Distributional Parameters

Many prediction problems seek to infer an unobserved, instance-specific parameter that governs the distribution of an observable response, even though the latent parameter is unavailable for both historical and future instances. We develop LatentCP, a prior-free conformal framework that constructs uncertainty sets for latent distributional parameters using only observed context--response pairs and a specified forward model. The method first constructs a conformal prediction set in the observable response space and then retains candidate latent parameters according to the probability their induced response distributions assign to that set. This inversion provides finite-sample marginal coverage without requiring latent calibration labels, a unique inverse mapping, or knowledge of the latent mixing distribution. Because latent-set efficiency depends nonmonotonically on the response-space miscoverage rate, we further introduce a multilevel procedure that aggregates normalized incompatibility scores across several response sets and selects the aggregation distribution using an independent tuning sample. Across synthetic experiments, LatentCP maintains nominal latent coverage under weak forward identification, observational nonidentifiability, and latent heterogeneity and multimodality, where empirical-Bayes, likelihood-based, and proxy-label conformal methods can substantially under-cover. On a California wildfire real dataset, it produces spatially adaptive uncertainty sets for latent fire intensity. Independent tuning improves efficiency, while multilevel aggregation provides additional gains when different response levels contain complementary information, without sacrificing validity.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

HoloPathTracer: Fast and Accurate Wave Path Tracing for Holography

Holography offers unique advantages for delivering perceptual realism while preserving compact form factors in VR/AR. Its perceptual quality, however, hinges on encoding rich wavefronts of photorealistic scenes into interference patterns and then incoherently multiplexing the resulting wave fields for perception. Existing CGH paradigms decouple radiance estimation from wave propagation by pre-rendering radiance on discretized scene sectors. This separation between radiometric and wave-optical computation inherently limits the range of focus cues and visual effects that can be faithfully reproduced, including depth- and view-continuity, and physically based material behaviors such as glossy or mirror-like reflection and refraction. We present a physically accurate yet computationally efficient wave optics rendering framework leveraging path tracing to encode full 3D visual cues into phase holograms. Specifically, we employ a Monte Carlo method to solve both the rendering equation and the Rayleigh--Sommerfeld integral simultaneously. Our algorithm is fully compatible with modern graphics techniques and can generate multiple time-multiplexed random holograms with minimal additional time cost via Path Reuse. By employing a fast approximation with an ambient radiance cache, we realize an order of magnitude convergence speed improvement. The resulting coherent wave fields that inherently encode comprehensive visual effects are converted into phase-only holograms under complex-amplitude supervision. Through extensive simulations and experimental validations on a spatial light modulator-based display prototype, we demonstrate faithful holographic reconstructions of natural 3D cues and complex materials, including realistic defocus blur, view-dependent effects, as well as appearance highlights and reflections.

cs.GR↗

arXiv2026

Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimization

Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly conservative decisions, whereas small sets risk excluding the true outcome. Recent data-driven approaches, particularly conformal prediction, offer finite-sample validity guarantees but remain largely task-agnostic, ignoring the downstream decision structure. In this paper, we propose a decision-aware conformal framework that learns uncertainty sets tailored to robust optimization objectives. Our approach parameterizes a flexible family of polyhedral sets via data-driven hyperplanes and learns their geometry by directly minimizing the induced robust loss, while preserving statistical validity through conformal calibration. To correct for data-dependent selection, we incorporate a re-calibration step on an independent dataset to restore coverage. The resulting sets capture directional and anisotropic uncertainty aligned with the decision objective while remaining computationally tractable. We provide finite-sample coverage guarantees and bounds on the sub-optimality gap to an oracle decision. This work bridges the gap between statistical validity and decision optimality, providing a principled framework for data-driven robust optimization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Score-Based Change-Point Detection and Region Localization for Spatio-Temporal Point Processes

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical quickest change detection methods provide strong guarantees on detection delay and false-alarm rates, existing approaches for point-process data predominantly focus on temporal changes and do not explicitly infer affected spatial regions. We propose a likelihood-free, score-based detection framework that jointly estimates the change time and the change region in continuous space-time without assuming parametric knowledge of the pre- or post-change dynamics. The method leverages a localized and conditionally weighted Hyv\"arinen score to quantify event-level deviations from nominal behavior and aggregates these scores using a spatio-temporal CUSUM-type statistic over a prescribed class of spatial regions. Operating sequentially, the procedure outputs both a stopping time and an estimated change region, enabling real-time detection with spatial interpretability. We establish theoretical guarantees on false-alarm control, detection delay, and spatial localization accuracy, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through simulations and real-world spatio-temporal event data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Impact of power outages on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic in a changing climate

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are a cornerstone of residential decarbonization and energy resilience. However, most existing systems are PV-only and cannot provide backup power during grid failures. Here, we present a high-resolution analysis of 377,726 households in Indianapolis, US, quantifying how power outages influence the installation of PV-only systems between 2014 and 2023. Using a two-part econometric panel model, we estimate the causal effect of power outage exposure and project future risks under a middle of the road climate scenario (RCP 4.5). We find that each additional hour of annual outage duration per household lowers the new-installation rate by 0.012 percentage points per year, equivalent to a 31% decline relative to the historical mean (2014-2023). With outage duration and frequency projected to double by 2040, these results reveal a potential vicious cycle between grid unreliability and slower decarbonization, calling for policies that integrate grid resilience and clean-energy goals.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Control

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions. Recent approaches using conformal prediction construct data-driven uncertainty sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but they still fix coverage targets a priori and offer little guidance for selecting robustness levels. We propose a new framework that provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on both miscoverage and regret for any family of robust predict-then-optimize policies. Our method constructs valid estimators that trace out the miscoverage--regret Pareto frontier, enabling decision-makers to reliably evaluate and calibrate robustness levels according to their cost--risk preferences. The framework is simple to implement, broadly applicable across classical optimization formulations, and achieves sharper finite-sample performance. This paper offers a principled data-driven methodology for guiding robustness selection and empowers practitioners to balance robustness and conservativeness in high-stakes decision-making.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment

In many operational settings, decision-makers must commit to actions before uncertainty resolves, but existing optimization tools rarely quantify how consistently a chosen decision remains optimal across plausible scenarios. This paper introduces CREDO -- Conformalized Risk Estimation for Decision Optimization, a distribution-free framework that quantifies the probability that a prescribed decision remains (near-)optimal across realizations of uncertainty. CREDO reformulates decision risk through the inverse feasible region -- the set of outcomes under which a decision is optimal -- and estimates its probability using inner approximations constructed from conformal prediction balls generated by a conditional generative model. This approach yields finite-sample, distribution-free lower bounds on the probability of decision optimality. The framework is model-agnostic and broadly applicable across a wide range of optimization problems. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality across various optimization settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

FABG : End-to-end Imitation Learning for Embodied Affective Human-Robot Interaction

This paper proposes FABG (Facial Affective Behavior Generation), an end-to-end imitation learning system for human-robot interaction, designed to generate natural and fluid facial affective behaviors. In interaction, effectively obtaining high-quality demonstrations remains a challenge. In this work, we develop an immersive virtual reality (VR) demonstration system that allows operators to perceive stereoscopic environments. This system ensures "the operator's visual perception matches the robot's sensory input" and "the operator's actions directly determine the robot's behaviors" - as if the operator replaces the robot in human interaction engagements. We propose a prediction-driven latency compensation strategy to reduce robotic reaction delays and enhance interaction fluency. FABG naturally acquires human interactive behaviors and subconscious motions driven by intuition, eliminating manual behavior scripting. We deploy FABG on a real-world 25-degree-of-freedom (DoF) humanoid robot, validating its effectiveness through four fundamental interaction tasks: expression response, dynamic gaze, foveated attention, and gesture recognition, supported by data collection and policy training. Project website: https://cybergenies.github.io

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Change Point Detection via Denoising Score Matching

Sequential change-point detection plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, where timely identification of distributional shifts can greatly mitigate adverse outcomes. Classical methods commonly rely on parametric density assumptions of pre- and post-change distributions, limiting their effectiveness for high-dimensional, complex data streams. This paper proposes a score-based CUSUM change-point detection, in which the score functions of the data distribution are estimated by injecting noise and applying denoising score matching. We consider both offline and online versions of score estimation. Through theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that denoising score matching can enhance detection power by effectively controlling the injected noise scale. Finally, we validate the practical efficacy of our method through numerical experiments on two synthetic datasets and a real-world earthquake precursor detection task, demonstrating its effectiveness in challenging scenarios.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical Probabilistic Conformal Prediction for Distributed Energy Resources Adoption

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) presents both opportunities and operational challenges for electric grid management. Accurately predicting DER adoption is critical for proactive infrastructure planning, but the inherent uncertainty and spatial disparity of DER growth complicate traditional forecasting approaches. Moreover, the hierarchical structure of distribution grids demands that predictions satisfy statistical guarantees at both the circuit and substation levels, a non-trivial requirement for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertainty quantification framework for DER adoption predictions that ensures validity across hierarchical grid structures. Leveraging a multivariate Hawkes process to model DER adoption dynamics and a tailored split conformal prediction algorithm, we introduce a new nonconformity score that preserves statistical guarantees under aggregation while maintaining prediction efficiency. We establish theoretical validity under mild conditions and demonstrate through empirical evaluation on customer-level solar panel installation data from Indianapolis, Indiana that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Recurrent Neural Goodness-of-Fit Test for Time Series

Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Distance-Preserving Representations for Genomic Spatial Reconstruction

The spatial context of single-cell gene expression data is crucial for many downstream analyses, yet often remains inaccessible due to practical and technical limitations, restricting the utility of such datasets. In this paper, we propose a generic representation learning and transfer learning framework dp-VAE, capable of reconstructing the spatial coordinates associated with the provided gene expression data. Central to our approach is a distance-preserving regularizer integrated into the loss function during training, ensuring the model effectively captures and utilizes spatial context signals from reference datasets. During the inference stage, the produced latent representation of the model can be used to reconstruct or impute the spatial context of the provided gene expression by solving a constrained optimization problem. We also explore the theoretical connections between distance-preserving loss, distortion, and the bi-Lipschitz condition within generative models. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of dp-VAE in different tasks involving training robustness, out-of-sample evaluation, and transfer learning inference applications by testing it over 27 publicly available datasets. This underscores its applicability to a wide range of genomics studies that were previously hindered by the absence of spatial data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Counterfactual Generative Models for Time-Varying Treatments

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially increased number of possible counterfactual outcomes. Furthermore, in modern applications, the outcomes are high-dimensional and conventional average treatment effect estimation fails to capture disparities in individuals. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel conditional generative framework capable of producing counterfactual samples under time-varying treatment, without the need for explicit density estimation. Our method carefully addresses the distribution mismatch between the observed and counterfactual distributions via a loss function based on inverse probability re-weighting, and supports integration with state-of-the-art conditional generative models such as the guided diffusion and conditional variational autoencoder. We present a thorough evaluation of our method using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results demonstrate that our method is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual samples and outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Quantifying Quantumness of Channels Without Entanglement

Quantum channels breaking entanglement, incompatibility, or nonlocality are defined as such because they are not useful for entanglement-based, one-sided device-independent, or device-independent quantum information processing, respectively. Here, we show that such breaking channels are related to complementary tests of macrorealism i.e., temporal separability, channel unsteerability, temporal unsteerability, and the temporal Bell inequality. To demonstrate this we first define a steerability-breaking channel, which is conceptually similar to entanglement and nonlocality-breaking channels and prove that it is identical to an incompatibility-breaking channel. A hierarchy of quantum non-breaking channels is derived, akin to the existing hierarchy relations for temporal and spatial quantum correlations. We then introduce the concept of channels that break temporal correlations, explain how they are related to the standard breaking channels, and prove the following results: (1) A robustness-based measure for non-entanglement-breaking channels can be probed by temporal nonseparability. (2) A non-steerability-breaking channel can be quantified by channel steering. (3) Temporal steerability and non-macrorealism can be used for, respectively, distinguishing unital steerability-breaking channels and nonlocality-breaking channels for a maximally entangled state. Finally, a two-dimensional depolarizing channel is experimentally implemented as a proof-of-principle example to demonstrate the hierarchy relation of non-breaking channels using temporal quantum correlations

quant-ph↗

arXiv2022

Simultaneously Enhanced Tenacity, Rupture Work, and Thermal Conductivity of Carbon Nanotubes Fibers by Increasing the Effective Tube Contribution

Although individual carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are superior as constituents to polymer chains, the mechanical and thermal properties of CNT fibers (CNTFs) remain inferior to commercial synthetic fibers due to the lack of synthesis methods to embed CNTs effectively in superstructures. The application of conventional techniques for mechanical enhancement resulted in a mild improvement of target properties while achieving parity at best on others. In this work, a Double-Drawing technique is developed to deform continuously grown CNTFs and rearrange the constituent CNTs in both mesoscale and nanoscale morphology. Consequently, the mechanical and thermal properties of the resulting CNTFs can be jointly improved, and simultaneously reach their highest performances with specific strength (tenacity) $\rm\sim3.30\,N\,tex^{-1}$, work of rupture $\rm\sim70\,J\,g^{-1}$, and thermal conductivity $\rm\sim354\,W\,m^{-1}\,K^{-1}$, despite starting from commercial low-crystallinity materials ($I{\rm_G}:I{\rm_D}\sim5$). The processed CNTFs are more versatile than comparable carbon fiber, Zylon, Dyneema, and Kevlar. Furthermore, based on evidence of load transfer efficiency on individual CNTs measured with In-Situ Stretching Raman, we find the main contributors to property enhancements are (1) the increased proportion of load-bearing CNT bundles and (2) the extension of effective length of tubes attached on these bundles.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2021

Robust self-testing of steerable quantum assemblages and its applications on device-independent quantum certification

Given a Bell inequality, if its maximal quantum violation can be achieved only by a single set of measurements for each party or a single quantum state, up to local unitaries, one refers to such a phenomenon as self-testing. For instance, the maximal quantum violation of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality certifies that the underlying state contains the two-qubit maximally entangled state and the measurements of one party contains a pair of anti-commuting qubit observables. As a consequence, the other party automatically verifies the set of states remotely steered, namely the "assemblage", is in the eigenstates of a pair of anti-commuting observables. It is natural to ask if the quantum violation of the Bell inequality is not maximally achieved, or if one does not care about self-testing the state or measurements, are we capable of estimating how close the underlying assemblage is to the reference one? In this work, we provide a systematic device-independent estimation by proposing a framework called "robust self-testing of steerable quantum assemblages". In particular, we consider assemblages violating several paradigmatic Bell inequalities and obtain the robust self-testing statement for each scenario. Our result is device-independent (DI), i.e., no assumption is made on the shared state and the measurement devices involved. Our work thus not only paves a way for exploring the connection between the boundary of quantum set of correlations and steerable assemblages, but also provides a useful tool in the areas of DI quantum certification. As two explicit applications, we show 1) that it can be used for an alternative proof of the protocol of DI certification of all entangled two-qubit states proposed by Bowles et al., and 2) that it can be used to verify all non-entanglement-breaking qubit channels with fewer assumptions compared with the work of Rosset et al.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2020

General state transitions with exact resource morphisms: a unified resource-theoretic approach

Given a non-empty closed convex subset $\mathsf{F}$ of density matrices, we formulate conditions that guarantee the existence of an $\mathsf{F}$-morphism (namely, a completely positive trace-preserving linear map that maps $\mathsf{F}$ into itself) between two arbitrarily chosen density matrices. While we allow errors in the transition, the corresponding map is required to be an exact $\mathsf{F}$-morphism. Our findings, though purely geometrical, are formulated in a resource-theoretic language and provide a common framework that comprises various resource theories, including the resource theories of bipartite and multipartite entanglement, coherence, athermality, and asymmetric distinguishability. We show how, when specialized to some situations of physical interest, our general results are able to unify and extend previous analyses. We also study conditions for the existence of maximally resourceful states, defined here as density matrices from which any other one can be obtained by means of a suitable $\mathsf{F}$-morphism. Moreover, we quantitatively characterize the paradigmatic tasks of optimal resource dilution and distillation, as special transitions in which one of the two endpoints is maximally resourceful.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2020

A Complete Resource Theory of Quantum Incompatibility as Quantum Programmability

Measurement incompatibility describes two or more quantum measurements whose expected joint outcome on a given system cannot be defined. This purely non-classical phenomenon provides a necessary ingredient in many quantum information tasks such violating a Bell Inequality or nonlocally steering part of an entangled state. In this paper, we characterize incompatibility in terms of programmable measurement devices and the general notion of quantum programmability. This refers to the temporal freedom a user has in issuing programs to a quantum device. For devices with a classical control and classical output, measurement incompatibility emerges as the essential quantum resource embodied in their functioning. Based on the processing of programmable measurement devices, we construct a quantum resource theory of incompatibility. A complete set of convertibility conditions for programmable devices is derived based on quantum state discrimination with post-measurement information.

quant-ph↗