arXiv subjects

Wentao Gao

Publications and source records attributed to Wentao Gao.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

Regional climate prediction presents unique challenges for time series foundation models, which typically process temporal patterns through single-pass inference. Expert climatologists, in contrast, employ multi-scale temporal analysis and iterative refinement based on systematic error diagnosis. We present RGMR (Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement), an inference-time framework that adapts pre-trained foundation models to perform structured coarse-to-fine refinement for climate forecasting without updating backbone parameters. Applied to drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), RGMR is architecture-agnostic across the three TSFM backbones evaluated per site (TimesFM, TimeGPT, TabPFN) and consistently lowers test-set MSE on three South Australian sites and three additional regions outside South Australia. Applied to TimesFM, the wrapper reduces one-month-ahead SPEI MSE by up to 18.9\% across the three South Australian sites (mean reduction $\approx$18.7\%). Overall, RGMR provides a practical route for deploying frozen TSFMs in regional climate forecasting workflows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Lightweight Wrappers for Adapting Time Series Foundation Models to Regional Drought Forecasting

Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains. However, their application to regional climate forecasting faces practical challenges: model weights are often proprietary, local training records are limited, and computational budgets are constrained, making traditional fine-tuning approaches infeasible. To address these constraints, we introduce a lightweight, black-box adaptation framework (requiring no access to backbone parameters and no backbone fine-tuning) that enhances frozen TSFMs at inference time through two plug-and-play wrappers: \textbf{SMR\textsuperscript{2}} (Stationarity aware multi-resolution Residual), which decomposes the input into multi-resolution temporal views, learns stride specific residual corrections that capture regional dynamics, then adaptively ensembles them into a single forecast, and \textbf{MBB} (Moving Block Bootstrap), which preserves temporal dependencies through block resampling and ensembles over temporally coherent residual perturbations to stabilize the point forecast. Both wrappers instantiate the same bagging style principle: they build diverse views of the input or its residuals, forecast each with the same frozen backbone, and aggregate, so all adaptation comes from inference time ensembling rather than any weight update. Evaluated on one month ahead Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) prediction across multiple sites in South Australia, our framework consistently improves forecasting performance across several backbone models, demonstrating up to 26\% mean squared error (MSE) reduction over the corresponding frozen backbone while enabling practical deployment in resource constrained regional forecasting systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

UFO: A Unified Flow-Oriented Framework for Robust Continual Graph Learning

Graph learning research has increasingly shifted toward continual graph learning (CGL), which better reflects real-world scenarios where graphs evolve over time. However, existing CGL methods largely assume clean supervision and overlook a critical challenge: the newly arriving portions of the graph are often noisy, due to annotation errors or adversarial corruption. This mismatch limits their applicability in practice. In this work, we study robust continual graph learning, where models must simultaneously handle catastrophic forgetting and noisy supervision in evolving graph data. We show that label noise introduces a new failure mode, catastrophic remembering, where models persistently reinforce corrupted knowledge across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a Unified Flow-Oriented framework (UFO). First, UFO models conditional feature distributions via flow-based generative modeling and produces replay representations, mitigating forgetting without storing historical data. Second, UFO estimates instance-level reliability scores to distinguish clean from noisy nodes, reducing the impact of corrupted supervision and alleviating catastrophic remembering. Extensive experiments on four benchmark graph datasets under varying noise ratios demonstrate that UFO consistently outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and forgetting metrics. Code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UFO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Deconfounding Framework for Human Behavior Prediction: Enhancing Robotic Systems in Dynamic Environments

Accurate prediction of human behavior is crucial for effective human-robot interaction (HRI) systems, especially in dynamic environments where real-time decisions are essential. This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting future human behavior using multivariate time series data from wearable sensors, which capture various aspects of human movement. The presence of hidden confounding factors in this data often leads to biased predictions, limiting the reliability of traditional models. To overcome this, we propose a robust predictive model that integrates deconfounding techniques with advanced time series prediction methods, enhancing the model's ability to isolate true causal relationships and improve prediction accuracy. Evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates that our approach significantly outperforms traditional methods, providing a more reliable foundation for responsive and adaptive HRI systems.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Deconfounded Time Series Forecasting: A Causal Inference Approach

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

InsightQL: Advancing Human-Assisted Fuzzing with a Unified Code Database and Parameterized Query Interface

Fuzzing is a highly effective automated testing method for uncovering software vulnerabilities. Despite advances in fuzzing techniques, such as coverage-guided greybox fuzzing, many fuzzers struggle with coverage plateaus caused by fuzz blockers, limiting their ability to find deeper vulnerabilities. Human expertise can address these challenges, but analyzing fuzzing results to guide this support remains labor-intensive. To tackle this, we introduce InsightQL, the first human-assisting framework for fuzz blocker analysis. Powered by a unified database and an intuitive parameterized query interface, InsightQL aids developers in systematically extracting insights and efficiently unblocking fuzz blockers. Our experiments on 14 popular real-world libraries from the FuzzBench benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of InsightQL, leading to the unblocking of many fuzz blockers and considerable improvements in code coverage (up to 13.90%).

cs.SE↗

arXiv2025

From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction

Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deconfounding Multi-Cause Latent Confounders: A Factor-Model Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Uncovering the Secrets of Human-Like Movement: A Fresh Perspective on Motion Planning

This article explores human-like movement from a fresh perspective on motion planning. We analyze the coordinated and compliant movement mechanisms of the human body from the perspective of biomechanics. Based on these mechanisms, we propose an optimal control framework that integrates compliant control dynamics, optimizing robotic arm motion through a response time matrix. This matrix sets the timing parameters for joint movements, turning the system into a time-parameterized optimal control problem. The model focuses on the interaction between active and passive joints under external disturbances, improving adaptability and compliance. This method achieves optimal trajectory generation and balances precision and compliance. Experimental results on both a manipulator and a humanoid robot validate the approach.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Federated Learning as a Service for Hierarchical Edge Networks with Heterogeneous Models

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed Machine Learning (ML) framework that is capable of training a new global model by aggregating clients' locally trained models without sharing users' original data. Federated learning as a service (FLaaS) offers a privacy-preserving approach for training machine learning models on devices with various computational resources. Most proposed FL-based methods train the same model in all client devices regardless of their computational resources. However, in practical Internet of Things (IoT) scenarios, IoT devices with limited computational resources may not be capable of training models that client devices with greater hardware performance hosted. Most of the existing FL frameworks that aim to solve the problem of aggregating heterogeneous models are designed for Independent and Identical Distributed (IID) data, which may make it hard to reach the target algorithm performance when encountering non-IID scenarios. To address these problems in hierarchical networks, in this paper, we propose a heterogeneous aggregation framework for hierarchical edge systems called HAF-Edge. In our proposed framework, we introduce a communication-efficient model aggregation method designed for FL systems with two-level model aggregations running at the edge and cloud levels. This approach enhances the convergence rate of the global model by leveraging selective knowledge transfer during the aggregation of heterogeneous models. To the best of our knowledge, this work is pioneering in addressing the problem of aggregating heterogeneous models within hierarchical FL systems spanning IoT, edge, and cloud environments. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the performance of our proposed method. The evaluation results demonstrate that HAF-Edge significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting

As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Peer Direct and Indirect Effects in Observational Network Data

Estimating causal effects is crucial for decision-makers in many applications, but it is particularly challenging with observational network data due to peer interactions. Many algorithms have been proposed to estimate causal effects involving network data, particularly peer effects, but they often overlook the variety of peer effects. To address this issue, we propose a general setting which considers both peer direct effects and peer indirect effects, and the effect of an individual's own treatment, and provide identification conditions of these causal effects and proofs. To estimate these causal effects, we utilize attention mechanisms to distinguish the influences of different neighbors and explore high-order neighbor effects through multi-layer graph neural networks (GNNs). Additionally, to control the dependency between node features and representations, we incorporate the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) into the GNN, fully utilizing the structural information of the graph, to enhance the robustness and accuracy of the model. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our theoretical findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, with applications in areas such as social networks and epidemiology.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Causal GNNs: A GNN-Driven Instrumental Variable Approach for Causal Inference in Networks

As network data applications continue to expand, causal inference within networks has garnered increasing attention. However, hidden confounders complicate the estimation of causal effects. Most methods rely on the strong ignorability assumption, which presumes the absence of hidden confounders-an assumption that is both difficult to validate and often unrealistic in practice. To address this issue, we propose CgNN, a novel approach that leverages network structure as instrumental variables (IVs), combined with graph neural networks (GNNs) and attention mechanisms, to mitigate hidden confounder bias and improve causal effect estimation. By utilizing network structure as IVs, we reduce confounder bias while preserving the correlation with treatment. Our integration of attention mechanisms enhances robustness and improves the identification of important nodes. Validated on two real-world datasets, our results demonstrate that CgNN effectively mitigates hidden confounder bias and offers a robust GNN-driven IV framework for causal inference in complex network data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Instrumental Variable Estimation for Causal Inference in Longitudinal Data with Time-Dependent Latent Confounders

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.

cs.LG↗