Wenxin Gu | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting

Forecasting aurora borealis visibility matters for space weather research and aurora tourism. Visibility at a site and night depends on two distinct factors: (1) whether aurora is physically occurring, driven by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, and (2) whether observing conditions allow naked-eye detection, mainly cloud cover and lunar illumination. We present Aurora Hunter, a two-stage cascade that decouples these factors. Stage 1 predicts P(occurring) with XGBoost using 51 physics-driven features trained on joint Tromso+Kiruna data (about 16,600 hourly samples, 2015-2023) with labels from the Tromso AI all-sky image classifier. Stage 2 predicts P(clear observation given occurring) with logistic regression using 21 cloud-cover and lunar-illumination features trained only on aurora-occurring hours. The cascade P(visible)=P(occurring)*P(clear|occurring) reaches ROC-AUC 0.937 (Tromso test, 2019-2020) and 0.905 (independent Kiruna, 2024), improving a single-stage baseline by +0.087. Held-out Skibotn data (2022-2025) confirm cross-site generalization. SHAP identifies the Kp x nightside interaction, MLT position, and auroral oval distance as dominant predictors (39% combined). Prototype: https://aurora-hunter.onrender.com.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

DesignBridge: Bridging Designer Expertise and User Preferences through AI-Enhanced Co-Design for Fashion

Effective collaboration between designers and users is important for fashion design, which can increase the user acceptance of fashion products and thereby create value. However, it remains an enduring challenge, as traditional designer-centric approaches restrict meaningful user participation, while user-driven methods demand design proficiency, often marginalizing professional creative judgment. Current co-design practices, including workshops and AI-assisted frameworks, struggle with low user engagement, inefficient preference collection, and difficulties in balancing user feedback with design considerations. To address these challenges, we conducted a formative study with designers and users experienced in co-design (N=7), identifying critical challenges for current collaboration between designers and users in the co-design process, and their requirements. Informed by these insights, we introduce DesignBridge, a multi-platform AI-enhanced interactive system that bridges designer expertise and user preferences through three stages: (1) Initial Design Framing, where designers define initial concepts. (2) Preference Expression Collection, where users intuitively articulate preferences via interactive tools. (3) Preference-Integrated Design, where designers use AI-assisted analytics to integrate feedback into cohesive designs. A user study demonstrates that DesignBridge significantly enhances user preference collection and analysis, enabling designers to integrate diverse preferences with professional expertise.

cs.HC↗