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Will Handley

Publications and source records attributed to Will Handley.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Split personalities in Bayesian Neural Networks: the case for full marginalisation

The true posterior distribution of a Bayesian neural network is massively multimodal. Whilst most of these modes are functionally equivalent, we demonstrate that there remains a level of real multimodality that manifests in even the simplest neural network setups. It is only by fully marginalising over all posterior modes, using appropriate Bayesian sampling tools, that we can capture the split personalities of the network. The ability of a network trained in this manner to reason between multiple candidate solutions dramatically improves the generalisability of the model, a feature we contend is not consistently captured by alternative approaches to the training of Bayesian neural networks. We provide a concise minimal example of this, which can provide lessons and a future path forward for correctly utilising the explainability and interpretability of Bayesian neural networks.

stat.ML↗

Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies

In this paper we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant $H_0$, the $σ_8$--$S_8$ tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the $5.0\,σ$ tension between the {\it Planck} CMB estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the {\it Planck} CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $Ω_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($σ_8,fσ_8$). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the $H_0$--$S_8$ tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals.[Abridged]

astro-ph.CO↗

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4322283.

hep-ph↗

Nested sampling for frequentist computation: fast estimation of small $p$-values

We propose a novel method for computing $p$-values based on nested sampling (NS) applied to the sampling space rather than the parameter space of the problem, in contrast to its usage in Bayesian computation. The computational cost of NS scales as $\log^2{1/p}$, which compares favorably to the $1/p$ scaling for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For significances greater than about $4σ$ in both a toy problem and a simplified resonance search, we show that NS requires orders of magnitude fewer simulations than ordinary MC estimates. This is particularly relevant for high-energy physics, which adopts a $5σ$ gold standard for discovery. We conclude with remarks on new connections between Bayesian and frequentist computation and possibilities for tuning NS implementations for still better performance in this setting.

physics.data-an↗

Thermal WIMPs and the Scale of New Physics: Global Fits of Dirac Dark Matter Effective Field Theories

We assess the status of a wide class of WIMP dark matter (DM) models in light of the latest experimental results using the global fitting framework $\textsf{GAMBIT}$. We perform a global analysis of effective field theory (EFT) operators describing the interactions between a gauge-singlet Dirac fermion and the Standard Model quarks, the gluons and the photon. In this bottom-up approach, we simultaneously vary the coefficients of 14 such operators up to dimension 7, along with the DM mass, the scale of new physics and several nuisance parameters. Our likelihood functions include the latest data from $\mathit{Planck}$, direct and indirect detection experiments, and the LHC. For DM masses below 100 GeV, we find that it is impossible to satisfy all constraints simultaneously while maintaining EFT validity at LHC energies. For new physics scales around 1 TeV, our results are influenced by several small excesses in the LHC data and depend on the prescription that we adopt to ensure EFT validity. Furthermore, we find large regions of viable parameter space where the EFT is valid and the relic density can be reproduced, implying that WIMPs can still account for the DM of the universe while being consistent with the latest data.

hep-ph↗

A General Bayesian Framework for Foreground Modelling and Chromaticity Correction for Global 21cm Experiments

The HI 21cm absorption line is masked by bright foregrounds and systematic distortions that arise due to the chromaticity of the antenna used to make the observation coupling to the spectral inhomogeneity of these foregrounds. We demonstrate that these distortions are sufficient to conceal the 21cm signal when the antenna is not perfectly achromatic and that simple corrections assuming a constant spatial distribution of foreground power are insufficient to overcome them. We then propose a new physics-motivated method of modelling the foregrounds of 21cm experiments in order to fit the chromatic distortions as part of the foregrounds. This is done by generating a simulated sky model across the observing band by dividing the sky into $N$ regions and scaling a base map assuming a distinct uniform spectral index in each region. The resulting sky map can then be convolved with a model of the antenna beam to give a model of foregrounds and chromaticity parameterised by the spectral indices of the $N$ regions. We demonstrate that fitting this model for varying $N$ using a Bayesian nested sampling algorithm and comparing the results using the evidence allows the 21cm signal to be reliably detected in data of a relatively smooth conical log spiral antenna. We also test a much more chromatic conical sinuous antenna and find this model will not produce a reliable signal detection, but in a manner that is easily distinguishable from a true detection.

astro-ph.IM↗

Informing antenna design for sky-averaged 21-cm experiments using a simulated Bayesian data analysis pipeline

Global 21cm experiments aim to measure the sky averaged HI absorption signal from cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionisation. However, antenna chromaticity coupling to bright foregrounds can introduce distortions into the observational data of such experiments. We demonstrate a method for guiding the antenna design of a global experiment through data analysis simulations. This is done by performing simulated observations for a range of inserted 21cm signals, then attempting to identify the signals with a data analysis pipeline. We demonstrate this method on five antennae that were considered as potential designs for the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH); a conical log spiral antenna, an inverted conical sinuous antenna and polygonal-, square- and elliptical-bladed dipoles. We find that the log spiral performs significantly better than the other antennae tested, able to correctly and confidently identify every inserted 21cm signal. In second place is the polygonal dipole antenna, which was only unable to detect signals with both very low amplitudes of 0.05K and low centre frequency of 80MHz. The conical sinuous antenna was found to perform least accurately, only able to detect the highest amplitude 21cm signals, and even then with biases. We also demonstrate that, due to the non-trivial nature of chromatic distortion and the processes of correcting for it, these are not the results that could have been expected superficially from the extent of chromatic variation in each antenna.

astro-ph.IM↗

Nested sampling with any prior you like

Nested sampling is an important tool for conducting Bayesian analysis in Astronomy and other fields, both for sampling complicated posterior distributions for parameter inference, and for computing marginal likelihoods for model comparison. One technical obstacle to using nested sampling in practice is the requirement (for most common implementations) that prior distributions be provided in the form of transformations from the unit hyper-cube to the target prior density. For many applications - particularly when using the posterior from one experiment as the prior for another - such a transformation is not readily available. In this letter we show that parametric bijectors trained on samples from a desired prior density provide a general-purpose method for constructing transformations from the uniform base density to a target prior, enabling the practical use of nested sampling under arbitrary priors. We demonstrate the use of trained bijectors in conjunction with nested sampling on a number of examples from cosmology.

astro-ph.IM↗

Strengthening the bound on the mass of the lightest neutrino with terrestrial and cosmological experiments

We determine the upper limit on the mass of the lightest neutrino from the most robust recent cosmological and terrestrial data. Marginalizing over possible effective relativistic degrees of freedom at early times ($N_\mathrm{eff}$) and assuming normal mass ordering, the mass of the lightest neutrino is less than 0.037 eV at 95% confidence; with inverted ordering, the bound is 0.042 eV. These results improve upon the strength and robustness of other recent limits and constrain the mass of the lightest neutrino to be barely larger than the largest mass splitting. We show the impacts of realistic mass models, and different sources of $N_\mathrm{eff}$.

astro-ph.CO↗

Quantifying the global parameter tensions between ACT, SPT and Planck

The overall cosmological parameter tension between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope 2020 (ACT) and Planck 2018 data within the concordance cosmological model is quantified using the suspiciousness statistic to be 2.6$σ$. Between ACT and the South Pole Telescope (SPT) we find a tension of 2.4$σ$, and 2.8$σ$ between ACT and Planck+SPT combined. While it is unclear whether the tension is caused by statistical fluctuations, systematic effects or new physics, caution should be exercised in combining these cosmic microwave background datasets in the context of the $Λ$CDM standard model of the universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

A comparison of optimisation algorithms for high-dimensional particle and astrophysics applications

Optimisation problems are ubiquitous in particle and astrophysics, and involve locating the optimum of a complicated function of many parameters that may be computationally expensive to evaluate. We describe a number of global optimisation algorithms that are not yet widely used in particle astrophysics, benchmark them against random sampling and existing techniques, and perform a detailed comparison of their performance on a range of test functions. These include four analytic test functions of varying dimensionality, and a realistic example derived from a recent global fit of weak-scale supersymmetry. Although the best algorithm to use depends on the function being investigated, we are able to present general conclusions about the relative merits of random sampling, Differential Evolution, Particle Swarm Optimisation, the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, Bayesian Optimisation, Grey Wolf Optimisation, and the PyGMO Artificial Bee Colony, Gaussian Particle Filter and Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimisation algorithms.

hep-ph↗

Nested sampling with plateaus

It was recently emphasised by Riley (2019); Schittenhelm & Wacker (2020) that that in the presence of plateaus in the likelihood function nested sampling (NS) produces faulty estimates of the evidence and posterior densities. After informally explaining the cause of the problem, we present a modified version of NS that handles plateaus and can be applied retrospectively to NS runs from popular NS software using anesthetic. In the modified NS, live points in a plateau are evicted one by one without replacement, with ordinary NS compression of the prior volume after each eviction but taking into account the dynamic number of live points. The live points are replenished once all points in the plateau are removed. We demonstrate it on a number of examples. Since the modification is simple, we propose that it becomes the canonical version of Skilling's NS algorithm.

stat.CO↗

Convergent Bayesian Global Fits of 4D Composite Higgs Models

Models in which the Higgs boson is a composite pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson offer attractive solutions to the Higgs mass naturalness problem. We consider three such models based on the minimal $SO(5) \rightarrow SO(4)$ symmetry breaking pattern, and perform convergent global fits on the models under a Bayesian framework in order to find the regions of their parameter spaces that best fit a wide range of constraints, including recent Higgs measurements. We use a novel technique to analyse the fine-tuning of the models, quantifying the tuning as the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior to the posterior probability on the parameter space. Each model is found to be able to satisfy all constraints at the $3σ$ level simultaneously. As a by-product of the fits, we analyse the collider phenomenology of our models in these viable regions. In two of the three models, we find that the $g g \rightarrow H \rightarrow γγ$ cross section is less than ${\sim}90$% that predicted by the SM, which is already in slight tension with experiment and could potentially be ruled out in the future high-luminosity run of the LHC. In addition, the lightest fermions $F$ arising from the new strong dynamics in these models are seen in general to lie above ${\sim}1.1$ TeV, with the $F \rightarrow tW^{+}$ and $F \rightarrow \bar{b}W^{+}$ decays offering particularly promising channels for probing these models in future collider searches.

hep-ph↗

CosmoBit: A GAMBIT module for computing cosmological observables and likelihoods

We introduce $\sf{CosmoBit}$, a module within the open-source $\sf{GAMBIT}$ software framework for exploring connections between cosmology and particle physics with joint global fits. $\sf{CosmoBit}$ provides a flexible framework for studying various scenarios beyond $Λ$CDM, such as models of inflation, modifications of the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom, exotic energy injection from annihilating or decaying dark matter, and variations of the properties of elementary particles such as neutrino masses and the lifetime of the neutron. Many observables and likelihoods in $\sf{CosmoBit}$ are computed via interfaces to $\sf{AlterBBN}$, $\sf{CLASS}$, $\sf{DarkAges}$, $\sf{MontePython}$, $\sf{MultiModeCode}$, and $\sf{plc}$. This makes it possible to apply a wide range of constraints from large-scale structure, Type Ia supernovae, Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the cosmic microwave background. Parameter scans can be performed using the many different statistical sampling algorithms available within the $\sf{GAMBIT}$ framework, and results can be combined with calculations from other $\sf{GAMBIT}$ modules focused on particle physics and dark matter. We include extensive validation plots and a first application to scenarios with non-standard relativistic degrees of freedom and neutrino temperature, showing that the corresponding constraint on the sum of neutrino masses is much weaker than in the standard scenario.

astro-ph.CO↗

Quantifying Ionospheric Effects on Global 21-cm Observations

We modelled the two major layer of Earth's ionosphere, the F-layer and the D-layer, by a simplified spatial model with temporal variance to study the chromatic ionospheric effects on global 21-cm observations. From the analyses, we found that the magnitude of the ionospheric disruptions due to ionospheric refraction and absorption can be greater than the expected global 21-cm signal, and the variation of its magnitude can differ, depending on the ionospheric conditions. Within the parameter space adopted in the model, the shape of the global 21-cm signal is distorted after propagating through the ionosphere, while its amplitude is weakened. It is observed that the ionospheric effects do not cancel out over time, and thus should be accounted for in the foreground calibration at each timestep to account for the chromaticity introduced by the ionosphere.

astro-ph.IM↗

Cosmology Intertwined III: $f σ_8$ and $S_8$

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides a wonderful fit to current cosmological data, but a few tensions and anomalies became statistically significant with the latest data analyses. While these anomalies could be due to the presence of systematic errors in the experiments, they could also indicate the need for new physics beyond the standard model. In this Letter of Interest we focus on the tension of the Planck data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $Ω_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($σ_8,fσ_8$). We list a few interesting models for solving this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit with a single model a full array of data and not just one parameter at a time.

astro-ph.CO↗

Cosmology Intertwined II: The Hubble Constant Tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4σ$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.

astro-ph.CO↗

Cosmology Intertwined I: Perspectives for the Next Decade

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant $H_0$ value, the $σ_8 - S_8$ tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth, that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.

astro-ph.CO↗