arXiv subjects

Willem Elbers

Publications and source records attributed to Willem Elbers.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

The FLAMINGO project: Baryonic impact on weak gravitational lensing convergence peak counts

Weak gravitational lensing convergence peaks, the local maxima in weak lensing convergence maps, have been shown to contain valuable cosmological information complementary to commonly used two-point statistics. To exploit the full power of weak lensing for cosmology, we must model baryonic feedback processes because these reshape the matter distribution on non-linear and mildly non-linear scales. We study the impact of baryonic physics on the number density of weak lensing peaks using the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We generate ray-traced full-sky convergence maps mimicking the characteristics of a Stage IV weak lensing survey. We compare the number densities of peaks in simulations that have been calibrated to reproduce the observed galaxy mass function and cluster gas fraction or to match a shifted version of these, and that use either thermally driven or jet AGN feedback. We show that the differences induced by realistic baryonic feedback prescriptions (typically $5 - 30\%$ for $κ= 0.1 - 0.4$) are smaller than those induced by reasonable variations in cosmological parameters ($20 - 60\%$ for $κ= 0.1 - 0.4$) but must be modeled carefully to obtain unbiased results. The reasons behind these differences can be understood by considering the impact of feedback on halo masses, or by considering the impact of different cosmological parameters on the halo mass function. Our analysis demonstrates that, for the range of models we investigated, the baryonic suppression is insensitive to changes in cosmology up to $κ\approx 0.4$ and that the higher $κ$ regime is dominated by Poisson noise and cosmic variance.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Where shadows lie: reconstruction of anisotropies in the neutrino sky

The Cosmic Neutrino Background (CNB) encodes a wealth of information, but has not yet been observed directly. To determine the prospects of detection and to study its information content, we reconstruct the phase-space distribution of local relic neutrinos from the three-dimensional distribution of matter within 200 Mpc/h of the Milky Way. Our analysis relies on constrained realization simulations and forward modelling of the 2M++ galaxy catalogue. We find that the angular distribution of neutrinos is anti-correlated with the projected matter density, due to the capture and deflection of neutrinos by massive structures along the line of sight. Of relevance to tritium capture experiments, we find that the gravitational clustering effect of the large-scale structure on the local number density of neutrinos is more important than that of the Milky Way for neutrino masses less than 0.1 eV. Nevertheless, we predict that the density of relic neutrinos is close to the cosmic average, with a suppression or enhancement over the mean of (-0.3%, +7%, +27%) for masses of (0.01, 0.05, 0.1) eV. This implies no more than a marginal increase in the event rate for tritium capture experiments like PTOLEMY. We also predict that the CNB and CMB rest frames coincide for 0.01 eV neutrinos, but that neutrino velocities are significantly perturbed for masses larger than 0.05 eV. Regardless of mass, we find that the angle between the neutrino dipole and the ecliptic plane is small, implying a near-maximal annual modulation in the bulk velocity. Along with this paper, we publicly release our simulation data, comprising more than 100 simulations for six different neutrino masses.

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arXiv2023

Persistent topology of the reionization bubble network. II: Evolution & Classification

We study the topology of the network of ionized and neutral regions that characterized the intergalactic medium during the Epoch of Reionization. Our analysis uses the formalism of persistent homology, which offers a highly intuitive and comprehensive description of the ionization topology in terms of the births and deaths of topological features. Features are identified as $k$-dimensional holes in the ionization bubble network, whose abundance is given by the $k$th Betti number: $β_0$ for ionized bubbles, $β_1$ for tunnels, and $β_2$ for neutral islands. Using semi-numerical models of reionization, we investigate the dependence on the properties of sources and sinks of ionizing radiation. Of all topological features, we find that the tunnels dominate during reionization and that their number is easiest to observe and most sensitive to the astrophysical parameters of interest, such as the gas fraction and halo mass necessary for star formation. Seen as a phase transition, the importance of the tunnels can be explained by the entanglement of two percolating clusters and the fact that higher-dimensional features arise when lower-dimensional features link together. We also study the relation between the morphological components of the bubble network (bubbles, tunnels, islands) and those of the cosmic web (clusters, filaments, voids), describing a correspondence between the $k$-dimensional features of both. Finally, we apply the formalism to mock observations of the 21-cm signal. Assuming 1000 observation hours with HERA Phase II, we show that astrophysical models can be differentiated and confirm that persistent homology provides additional information beyond the power spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

FLAMINGO: Calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters.

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arXiv2023

The FLAMINGO project: cosmological hydrodynamical simulations for large-scale structure and galaxy cluster surveys

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent.

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arXiv2023

The FLAMINGO project: revisiting the $S_8$ tension and the role of baryonic physics

A number of recent studies have found evidence for a tension between observations of large-scale structure (LSS) and the predictions of the standard model of cosmology with the cosmological parameters fit to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The origin of this '$S_8$ tension' remains unclear, but possibilities include new physics beyond the standard model, unaccounted for systematic errors in the observational measurements and/or uncertainties in the role that baryons play. Here we carefully examine the latter possibility using the new FLAMINGO suite of large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We project the simulations onto observable harmonic space and compare with observational measurements of the power and cross-power spectra of cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. We explore the dependence of the predictions on box size and resolution, cosmological parameters including the neutrino mass, and the efficiency and nature of baryonic 'feedback'. Despite the wide range of astrophysical behaviours simulated, we find that baryonic effects are not sufficiently large to remove the $S_8$ tension. Consistent with recent studies, we find the CMB lensing power spectrum is in excellent agreement with the standard model, whilst the cosmic shear power spectrum, tSZ effect power spectrum, and the cross-spectra between shear, CMB lensing, and the tSZ effect are all in varying degrees of tension with the CMB-specified standard model. These results suggest that some mechanism is required to slow the growth of fluctuations at late times and/or on non-linear scales, but that it is unlikely that baryon physics is driving this modification.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Non-linear CMB lensing with neutrinos and baryons: FLAMINGO simulations vs. fast approximations

Weak lensing of the cosmic microwave background is rapidly emerging as a powerful probe of neutrinos, dark energy, and new physics. We present a fast computation of the non-linear CMB lensing power spectrum which combines non-linear perturbation theory at early times with power spectrum emulation using cosmological simulations at late times. Comparing our calculation with lightcones from the FLAMINGO 5.6 Gpc cube dark-matter-only simulation, we confirm its accuracy to 1% (2%) up to multipoles L = 3000 (L = 5000) for a nuLambdaCDM cosmology consistent with current data. Clustering suppression due to small-scale baryonic phenomena such as feedback from active galactic nuclei can reduce the lensing power by of order 10%. To our perturbation theory and emulator-based calculation we add SP(k), a new fitting function for this suppression, and confirm its accuracy compared to the FLAMINGO hydrodynamic simulations to 4% at L = 5000, with similar accuracy for massive neutrino models. We further demonstrate that scale-dependent suppression due to neutrinos and baryons approximately factorize, implying that a careful treatment of baryonic feedback can limit biasing neutrino mass constraints.

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arXiv2022

Geodesic motion and phase-space evolution of massive neutrinos

The non-trivial phase-space distribution of relic neutrinos is responsible for the erasure of primordial density perturbations on small scales, which is one of the main cosmological signatures of neutrino mass. In this paper, we present a new code, FastDF, for generating 1%-accurate particle realisations of the neutrino phase-space distribution using relativistic perturbation theory. We use the geodesic equation to derive equations of motion for massive particles moving in a weakly perturbed spacetime and integrate particles accordingly. We demonstrate how to combine geodesic-based initial conditions with the $δf$ method to minimise shot noise and clarify the definition of the neutrino momentum, finding that large errors result if the wrong parametrisation is used. Compared to standard Lagrangian methods with ad-hoc thermal motions, FastDF achieves substantial improvements in accuracy. We outline the approximation schemes used to speed up the code and to ensure symplectic integration that preserves phase-space density. Finally, we discuss implications for neutrino particles in cosmological N-body simulations. In particular, we argue that particle methods can accurately describe the neutrino distribution from $z=10^9$, when neutrinos are linear and ultra-relativistic, down to $z=0$, when they are nonlinear and non-relativistic. FastDF can be used to set up accurate initial conditions (ICs) for N-body simulations and has been integrated into the higher-order IC code monofonIC.

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arXiv2022

Higher-order initial conditions with massive neutrinos

The discovery that neutrinos have mass has important consequences for cosmology. The main effect of massive neutrinos is to suppress the growth of cosmic structure on small scales. Such growth can be accurately modelled using cosmological $N$-body simulations, but doing so requires accurate initial conditions (ICs). There is a trade-off, especially with first-order ICs, between truncation errors for late starts and discreteness and relativistic errors for early starts. Errors can be minimized by starting simulations at late times using higher-order ICs. In this paper, we show that neutrino effects can be absorbed into scale-independent coefficients in higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT). This clears the way for the use of higher-order ICs for massive neutrino simulations. We demonstrate that going to higher order substantially improves the accuracy of simulations. To match the sensitivity of surveys like DESI and Euclid, errors in the matter power spectrum should be well below 1%. However, we find that first-order Zel'dovich ICs lead to much larger errors, even when starting as early as $z=127$, exceeding 1% at $z=0$ for $k>0.5\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the power spectrum and $k>0.1\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the equilateral bispectrum in our simulations. Ratios of power spectra with different neutrino masses are more robust than absolute statistics, but still depend on the choice of ICs. For all statistics considered, we obtain 1% agreement between 2LPT and 3LPT at $z=0$.

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arXiv2020

An optimal nonlinear method for simulating relic neutrinos

Cosmology places the strongest current limits on the sum of neutrino masses. Future observations will further improve the sensitivity and this will require accurate cosmological simulations to quantify possible systematic uncertainties and to make predictions for nonlinear scales, where much information resides. However, shot noise arising from neutrino thermal motions limits the accuracy of simulations. In this paper, we introduce a new method for simulating large-scale structure formation with neutrinos that accurately resolves the neutrinos down to small scales and significantly reduces the shot noise. The method works by tracking perturbations to the neutrino phase-space distribution with particles and reduces shot noise in the power spectrum by a factor of $\mathcal{O}\left(10^2\right)$ at $z=0$ for minimal neutrino masses and significantly more at higher redshifts, without neglecting the back-reaction caused by neutrino clustering. We prove that the method is part of a family of optimal methods that minimize shot noise subject to a maximum deviation from the nonlinear solution. Compared to other methods we find permille level agreement in the matter power spectrum and percent level agreement in the large-scale neutrino bias, but large differences in the neutrino component on small scales. A basic version of the method can easily be implemented in existing N-body codes and makes it possible to run neutrino simulations with significantly reduced particle load. Further gains are possible by constructing background models based on perturbation theory. A major advantage of this technique is that it works well for all masses, enabling a consistent exploration of the full neutrino parameter space.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Persistent topology of the reionisation bubble network. I: Formalism & Phenomenology

We present a new formalism for studying the topology of HII regions during the Epoch of Reionisation, based on persistent homology theory. With persistent homology, it is possible to follow the evolution of topological features over time. We introduce the notion of a persistence field as a statistical summary of persistence data and we show how these fields can be used to identify different stages of reionisation. We identify two new stages common to all bubble ionisation scenarios. Following an initial pre-overlap and subsequent overlap stage, the topology is first dominated by neutral filaments (filament stage) and then by enclosed patches of neutral hydrogen undergoing outside-in ionisation (patch stage). We study how these stages are affected by the degree of galaxy clustering. We also show how persistence fields can be used to study other properties of the ionisation topology, such as the bubble size distribution and the fractal-like topology of the largest ionised region.

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