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William A. Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to William A. Dawson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NS) could provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection - astrometric microlensing - will become available. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We use state-of-the-art Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. We simulate four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: $\bar{v} = (150, \ 250, \ 350, \ 450)$ km/s. We apply projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We find the parameter space $\log_{10} t_{\rm E}$ - $\log_{10} θ_{\rm E}$, which will be accessible to Roman observations, to be maximally efficient for classification of stellar remnants. We find a feature in this space that is characteristic to NS; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman-like datasets. We describe the dependence of observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NS are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate Roman will observe approximately $11\,000$ microlensing events - including $\sim100$ with NS lenses - whose both photometric and astrometric signal are detectable; the event yield decreases by $38\%$ if gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

astro-ph.HE↗

Hints of an Anomalous Lens Population towards the Galactic Bulge

The dark and dynamic parts of the Galaxy, including the bulk shape and movement of the Galactic Bulge and characteristics of dark compact object populations, such as a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs), are difficult to study directly by their very nature, but are critical to our understanding of the universe. Fortunately, all of these mysteries can be uniquely studied via gravitational microlensing, a method of astronomical detection that traces mass and dynamics as opposed to light. Using the OGLE-IV microlensing survey bulge fields, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical model to jointly infer properties of the Galaxy, the characteristics of compact objects, and and test PBHs with an extended mass distribution as a test PBHs as a viable explanation of dark matter, extending work focused on the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds, both with much lower event-rates. We infer a preference within the data for a lower patternspeed in the galactic model and a wider mass spectrum for compact objects. When adding a PBH component to the favored astrophysical model from our initial investigations, we find a Bayes factor of $\ln\mathcal{B} = 20.23$ preferring the PBH model. Upon further investigation of these results, we find the critical feature in the PBH model to be the velocity distribution, which is fundamentally different than the velocity distribution of astrophysical objects and uniquely able to explain a large number of low parallax, low timescale microlensing events. Noting that this effect is not unique to PBHs, we consider the implications of these results as applied to a hypothetical population of PBHs and discuss alternative explanations, including a variety of other possible astrophysical and survey or analysis systematics.

astro-ph.GA↗

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the Galaxy resulting from the death of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events based on characteristics of their lightcurves to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on a small subsets of events. In this paper we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on lightcurve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing lightcurve parameters making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass python package. We apply the classifier to $\sim10,000$ microlensing events from the OGLE survey and find $23$ high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier according to current Galactic models and allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

astro-ph.SR↗

popclass: a python package for classifying microlensing events

popclass is a python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. popclass allows a user to match characteristics of a microlensing signal to a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for an event. Constraints on any microlensing signal characteristics and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to common inference libraries for microlensing signal constraints, pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and classification uncertainty quantification methods.

astro-ph.IM↗

Astrometric Microlensing by Primordial Black Holes with The Roman Space Telescope

Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) could explain some fraction of dark matter and shed light on many areas of early-universe physics. Despite over half a century of research interest, a PBH population has so far eluded detection. The most competitive constraints on the fraction of dark matter comprised of PBHs ($f_{\rm DM}$) in the $(10^{-9}-10)M_{\odot}$ mass-ranges come from photometric microlensing and bound $f_{\rm DM}\lesssim10^{-2}-10^{-1}$. With the advent of the Roman Space Telescope with its sub-milliarcsecond (mas) astrometric capabilities and its planned Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), detecting astrometric microlensing signatures will become routine. Compared with photometric microlensing, astrometric microlensing signals are sensitive to different lens masses-distance configurations and contains different information, making it a complimentary lensing probe. At sub-mas astrometric precision, astrometric microlensing signals are typically detectable at larger lens-source separations than photometric signals, suggesting a microlensing detection channel of pure astrometric events. We use a Galactic simulation to predict the number of detectable microlensing events during the GBTDS via this pure astrometric microlensing channel. Assuming an absolute astrometric precision floor for bright stars of 0.1 mas for the GBTDS, we find that the number of detectable events peaks at $\approx 10^{3} f_{\rm DM}$ for a population of $ 1 M_{\odot}$ PBHs and tapers to $\approx 10f_{\rm DM}$ and $\approx 100f_{\rm DM}$ at $10^{-4}M_{\odot}$ and $10^{3}M_{\odot}$, respectively. Accounting for the distinguishability of PBHs from Stellar lenses, we conclude the GBTDS will be sensitive to a PBH population at $f_{\rm DM}$ down to $\approx10^{-1}-10^{-3}$ for $(10^{-1}-10^{2})M_{\odot}$ likely yielding novel PBH constraints.

astro-ph.GA↗

Spatially resolved microlensing timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge with the VVV survey

We analyze 1602 microlensing events found in the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) near-infrared (NIR) survey data. We obtain spatially-resolved, efficiency-corrected timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge ($|\ell|<10^\circ,$ $|b|<5^\circ$), using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Spatially-resolved peaks and means of the timescale distributions, along with their marginal distributions in strips of longitude and latitude, are in agreement at a 1$σ$ level with predictions based on the Besançon model of the Galaxy. We find that the event timescales in the central bulge fields ($|\ell| < 5^\circ$) are on average shorter than the non-central ($|\ell| > 5^\circ$) fields, with the average peak of the lognormal timescale distribution at 23.6 $\pm$ 1.9 days for the central fields and 29.0 $\pm$ 3.0 days for the non-central fields. Our ability to probe the structure of the Bulge with this sample of NIR microlensing events is limited by the VVV survey's sparse cadence and relatively small number of detected microlensing events compared to dedicated optical surveys. Looking forward to future surveys, we investigate the capability of the Roman telescope to detect spatially-resolved asymmetries in the timescale distributions. We propose two pairs of Roman fields, centred on ($\ell = \pm 9,5^\circ$, $b=-0.125^\circ$) and ($\ell = -5^\circ$, $b=\pm 1.375^\circ$) as good targets to measure the asymmetry in longitude and latitude, respectively.

astro-ph.GA↗

GREAT3 results I: systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically-varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially-varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by $\sim 1$ per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.

astro-ph.CO↗

Report of the Topical Group on Cosmic Probes of Dark Matter for Snowmass 2021

Cosmological and astrophysical observations currently provide the only robust, positive evidence for dark matter. Cosmic probes of dark matter, which seek to determine the fundamental properties of dark matter through observations of the cosmos, have emerged as a promising means to reveal the nature of dark matter. This report summarizes the current status and future potential of cosmic probes to inform our understanding of the fundamental nature of dark matter in the coming decade.

hep-ph↗

Exemplary Merging Clusters: Weak-lensing and X-ray Analysis of the Double Radio Relic Merging Galaxy Clusters MACS 1752.0+4440 and ZWCL 1856.8+6616

The investigation of merging galaxy clusters that exhibit radio relics is strengthening our understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxy clusters, the nature of dark matter, the intracluster medium, and astrophysical particle acceleration. Each merging cluster provides only a single view of the cluster formation process and the variety of merging clusters is vast. Clusters hosting double radio relics are rare and extremely important because they allow tight constraints on the merger scenario. We present a weak-lensing and X-ray analysis of MACSJ1752.0+4440 ($z$=0.365) and ZWCL1856.8+6616 ($z$=0.304), two double radio relic clusters. Our weak-lensing mass estimates show that each cluster is a major merger with approximately 1:1 mass ratio. The total mass of MACSJ1752.0+4440 (ZWCL1856.8+6616) is $M_{200}=14.7^{+3.8}_{-3.3}\times10^{14}\ $M$_\odot$ ($M_{200}=2.4^{+0.9}_{-0.7}\times10^{14}\ $M$_\odot$). We find that these two clusters have comparable features in their weak-lensing and gas distributions, even though the systems have vastly different total masses. From the likeness of the X-ray morphologies and the remarkable symmetry of the radio relics, we propose that both systems underwent nearly head-on collisions. However, revelations from the hot-gas features and our multiwavelength data analysis suggest that ZWCL1856.8+6618 is likely at a later merger phase than MACSJ1752.0+4440. We postulate that the SW radio relic in MACSJ1752.0+4440 is a result of particle re-acceleration.

astro-ph.GA↗

RELICS: Properties of z>5.5 Galaxies Inferred from Spitzer and Hubble Imaging Including A Candidate z~6.8 Strong [OIII] Emitter

We present constraints on the physical properties (including stellar mass, age, and star formation rate) of 207 $6\lesssim z \lesssim8$ galaxy candidates from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) and companion Spitzer-RELICS surveys. We measure photometry using T-PHOT and perform spectral energy distribution fitting using EA$z$Y and BAGPIPES. Of the 207 candidates for which we could successfully measure Spitzer fluxes, 23 were demoted to likely low redshift ($z<4$). Among the remaining high redshift candidates, we find intrinsic stellar masses between $1\times10^6\rm{M_{\odot}}$ and $4\times10^9\rm{M_\odot}$, and rest-frame UV absolute magnitudes between $-22.6$ and $-14.5$ mag. While our sample is mostly comprised of $L_{UV}/L^*_{UV}<1$ galaxies, there are a number of brighter objects in the sample, extending to $L_{UV}/L^*_{UV}\sim2$. The galaxies in our sample span approximately four orders of magnitude in stellar mass and star-formation rates, and exhibit ages ranging from maximally young to maximally old. We highlight 11 galaxies which have detections in Spitzer/IRAC imaging and redshift estimates $z\geq6.5$, several of which show evidence for some combination of evolved stellar populations, large contributions of nebular emission lines, and/or dust. Among these is PLCKG287+32-2013, one of the brightest $z\sim7$ candidates known (AB mag 24.9) with a Spitzer 3.6$μ$m flux excess suggesting strong [OIII] + H-$β$ emission ($\sim$1000Å rest-frame equivalent width). We discuss the possible uses and limits of our sample and present a public catalog of Hubble 0.4--1.6$μ$m + Spitzer 3.6$μ$m and 4.5$μ$m photometry along with physical property estimates for all 207 objects in the sample. Because of their apparent brightnesses, high redshifts, and variety of stellar populations, these objects are excellent targets for follow-up with James Webb Space Telescope.

astro-ph.GA↗

Hybrid Information-driven Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

Information theoretic sensor management approaches are an ideal solution to state estimation problems when considering the optimal control of multi-agent systems, however they are too computationally intensive for large state spaces, especially when considering the limited computational resources typical of large-scale distributed multi-agent systems. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising alternative which can find approximate solutions to distributed optimal control problems that take into account the resource constraints inherent in many systems of distributed agents. However, the RL training can be prohibitively inefficient, especially in low-information environments where agents receive little to no feedback in large portions of the state space. We propose a hybrid information-driven multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) approach that utilizes information theoretic models as heuristics to help the agents navigate large sparse state spaces, coupled with information based rewards in an RL framework to learn higher-level policies. This paper presents our ongoing work towards this objective. Our preliminary findings show that such an approach can result in a system of agents that are approximately three orders of magnitude more efficient at exploring a sparse state space than naive baseline metrics. While the work is still in its early stages, it provides a promising direction for future research.

cs.MA↗

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and IV

Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year. Surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is studying the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time distribution ($t_E$). However, systematics in individual light curves as well as over-simplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian Process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the timescale distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and previous analyses over-estimated the number of long timescale ($t_E>100$ days) events due to their over simplistic models ignoring parallax effects and stellar variability. We use our fits to identify hundreds of events that are likely black holes.

astro-ph.GA↗

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky every few nights including the Galactic plane. ZTF observes $\sim10^9$ stars in g-band and r-band and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. We predict that ZTF will observe $\sim$1100 microlensing events in three years of observing within $10^\circ$ degrees latitude of the Galactic plane, with $\sim$500 events in the outer Galaxy ($\ell \geq 10^\circ$). This yield increases to $\sim$1400 ($\sim$800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, $\sim$1800 ($\sim$900) events if ZTF observes for a total of five years, and $\sim$2400 ($\sim$1300) events for a five year survey with post-processing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.

astro-ph.SR↗

RELICS: A Very Large ($θ_{E}\sim40"$) Cluster Lens -- RXC J0032.1+1808

Extensive surveys with the \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} (HST) over the past decade, targeting some of the most massive clusters in the sky, have uncovered dozens of galaxy-cluster strong lenses. The massive cluster strong-lens scale is typically $θ_{E}\sim10\arcsec$ to $\sim30-35\arcsec$, with only a handful of clusters known with Einstein radii $θ_{E}\sim40\arcsec$ or above (for $z_{source}=2$, nominally). Here we report another very large cluster lens, RXC J0032.1+1808 ($z=0.3956$), the second richest cluster in the redMapper cluster catalog and the 85th most massive cluster in the Planck Sunyaev-Zel'dovich catalog. With our Light-Traces-Mass and fully parametric (dPIEeNFW) approaches, we construct strong lensing models based on 18 multiple images of 5 background galaxies newly identified in the \textit{Hubble} data mainly from the \textit{Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey} (RELICS), in addition to a known sextuply imaged system in this cluster. Furthermore, we compare these models to Lenstool and GLAFIC models that were produced independently as part of the RELICS program. All models reveal a large effective Einstein radius of $θ_{E}\simeq40\arcsec$ ($z_{source}=2$), owing to the obvious concentration of substructures near the cluster center. Although RXC J0032.1+1808 has a very large critical area and high lensing strength, only three magnified high-redshift candidates are found within the field targeted by RELICS. Nevertheless, we expect many more high-redshift candidates will be seen in wider and deeper observations with \textit{Hubble} or \emph{JWST}. Finally, the comparison between several algorithms demonstrates that the total error budget is largely dominated by systematic uncertainties.

astro-ph.CO↗

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times ($t_E>120$ days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~85% by selecting events with both $t_E>120$ days and a microlensing parallax of $π_E<0.08$. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as $π_E$ requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of $\mathcal{O}(100-1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions.

astro-ph.SR↗

Probing the Fundamental Nature of Dark Matter with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

Astrophysical and cosmological observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. Future observations with Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will provide necessary guidance for the experimental dark matter program. This white paper represents a community effort to summarize the science case for studying the fundamental physics of dark matter with LSST. We discuss how LSST will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational couplings to the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we discuss the ways that LSST will complement other experiments to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter. More information on the LSST dark matter effort can be found at https://lsstdarkmatter.github.io/ .

astro-ph.CO↗

Dark Matter Science in the Era of LSST

Astrophysical observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. In the coming decade, astrophysical observations will guide other experimental efforts, while simultaneously probing unique regions of dark matter parameter space. This white paper summarizes astrophysical observations that can constrain the fundamental physics of dark matter in the era of LSST. We describe how astrophysical observations will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational interactions with the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we highlight theoretical work and experimental/observational facilities that will complement LSST to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter.

astro-ph.CO↗

RELICS: Strong Lensing Analysis of MACS J0417.5-1154 and Predictions for Observing the Magnified High-Redshift Universe with JWST

Strong gravitational lensing by clusters of galaxies probes the mass distribution at the core of each cluster and magnifies the universe behind it. MACS J0417.5-1154 at z=0.443 is one of the most massive clusters known based on weak lensing, X-ray, and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich analyses. Here we compute a strong lens model of MACS J0417 based on Hubble Space Telescope imaging observations collected, in part, by the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), and recently reported spectroscopic redshifts from the MUSE instrument on the Very Large Telescope (VLT). We measure an Einstein radius of ThetaE=36'' at z = 9 and a mass projected within 200 kpc of M(200 kpc) = 1.78+0.01-0.03x10**14Msol. Using this model, we measure a ratio between the mass attributed to cluster-member galaxy halos and the main cluster halo of order 1:100. We assess the probability to detect magnified high-redshift galaxies in the field of this cluster, both for comparison with RELICS HST results and as a prediction for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Guaranteed Time Observations upcoming for this cluster. Our lensing analysis indicates that this cluster has similar lensing strength to other clusters in the RELICS program. Our lensing analysis predicts a detection of at least a few z~6-8 galaxies behind this cluster, at odds with a recent analysis that yielded no such candidates in this field. Reliable strong lensing models are crucial for accurately predicting the intrinsic properties of lensed galaxies. As part of the RELICS program, our strong lensing model produced with the Lenstool parametric method is publicly available through the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST).

astro-ph.GA↗